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PHX @ BOS

Welcome readers to ATSStat’s debut article featuring PHX@BOS!

Let’s jump right in with analysis on the SU prediction, value, 2H contenders, and what it all means.

But actually before we get to that, even at just a glance, something is immediately jumping right off the page as we skim the ATSStats Top 20 Trends :

O/U
Description Over-Under-Push
When PHOENIX team played as a Road team – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Coming off a 2 goal win 5-14-2
When BOSTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a conference game – Total is 5.5 – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent 10-19-0
When BOSTON team played as a home team – Before a non division game – After a conference game – Coming off a 3 game Road stand 4-8-1
When BOSTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Non Conference Opponent – After a conference game – Allowed 1 goals AGAINST in their last game 6-13-3
When BOSTON team played as a home team – Vs Non Division Opponent – playing on Thursday – Playing in back to back games 6-13-2
When BOSTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 5 years – Coming off a 3 goal win 6-16-4
When BOSTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Non Division Opponent – After a conference game – Coming off 1 game push 7-15-2

7 Green Stars say this goes UNDER
0 Green Stars say this goes OVER.

A few fun stats:
PHX is only 4.8 GFGA per game L5G.
BOS is only 5.4 GFGA per game L5G.
(BOS played the porous FLA defense twice, scoring 9GF in those 2 games)
PHX is in strong contention for a PO spot and will bring focus.
BOS are on a hot streak unlike other top 5 teams, (coughANAcough) , who have lost 4 straight. Rask should be sitting this one out tonight, but although Johnson is new, he is averaging 94.3% all season and we could be seeing more of the same.
All in all, so far, there is no reason to think that it wouldn’t all add up to an u5.5 result here.
With that said, let’s jump into the sides here as well with some interesting pointers:
Granted there are more ATS stats to look at but the bottom line is that PHX has a history of keeping it tight in these contests, and BOS has a history of barely winning, if at all.
Despite being strong on the B2B, (9-2 this season) (20-6 L3S) BOS will likely have an untested backup in net tonight. With a tired defense from last night, and an untested backup, it could mean that the lamp gets lit a few more times than it normally would.
Although BOS has a Blue Star consideration:
I would be a little bit hesitant in this instance to put full stock on it at this point given all the factors.
Time Teams SU-L3-Record Value Season SU Record Value SU Result OU-L3-Record Value Season OU Record Value OU Result Final Result
W-L % W-L % W-L % W-L %
18:05:00 PHOENIX

BOSTON

2 – 1

3 – 0

33.33

0

31 – 35

43 – 22

53.03

33.85

0.43

0.17

1 – 2

2 – 0

33.33

100

33 – 30

25 – 22

52.38

53.19

0.43

0.77

0.6
As we can see, BOS’s PVI is a dismal 0.17.
So basically the PVI is indicating that something has got to give with BOS at some point, and that it’s more likely to be sooner than later.
Let’s talk HotDogs.

The most defining trait of a “HotDog” is a team that’s over-performing. A HotDog is an underdog team that’s on a HOT streak.

They win by spread when the odds are with them.
They barely get edged, and even sometimes win, when the odds are stacked against them.
Let’s take a quick look at PHX L5G:
  • 1-0 vs VAN as a -140 favourite.
  • 5-2 vs MTL as a -140 favourite.
  • 2-3 vs WSH as a +100 dog.
  • 4-3 vs TBL as a +130 dog.
  • 3-1 vs FLA as a -125 favourite.
The conclusion is obvious.
*PHOENIX is a HotDog and they are firing on all cylinders.*
DALLAS vs STL on March 11th was another example of a HotDog.
CALGARY vs ANA just yesterday was still another.

Anyone blindly betting the high chalk can tell you that 2014 has been extremely hurtful.

So the rule for HotDogs is simple:
“It’s not about who they’re playing, it’s about how hot they are.”
Teams in positions such as PHOENIX is tonight, don’t care who they’re up against.
The better the team? The better they intend to play!
That’s all there is to it.
BOS might be 9-2 on the B2B this season, but they never played a team, burning as hot as PHX is burning right now, in that B2B spot.
Nonetheless folks:

  • BOS is 43-22 All Games, but is a WHOPPING 25-9 at home.
  • PHX is 31-35 All Games, but is a WORTHLESS 12-21 on the road
So we can’t help but wonder if there isn’t something about road games that is particularly hard on the PHX players? One thing is certain, 12-21 is not small fries. Where a moment ago we should have been salivating over the value on PHX…that road record grinds that plan to a halt.
Put more importantly…does PHX’s dismal performance on the road crash the confidence that we established in the UNDER 5.5 pick??
To help with that, there is one last critical stat that we should look up using the ATSStats Super ATS Database:
When PHOENIX team played as a road team During Current Season: O/U 14-19-0
EUREKA!
So even when PHX is under-performing on the road, because of that that O/U 14-19, we now can deduce that it’s their scoring that’s the problem on the road and not their netminding!
Therefore the u5.5 trend has integrity and we should feel comfortable with these kinds of informed predictions that show consistent trends across multiple considerations.
Following through with these narratives, and finding the common themes, let’s us understand if there is consistency in a pick, or if we should have doubt.
With that in mind, we will respect the general rules for 2nd Half Seasons that apply such as:
– Do NOT pick high chalk because upset are plentiful in the 2H.
– DO pick HotDogs if you think they have a shot because they will have rock solid value when up against top 5 teams.
So keeping everything in mind, the predictions are as follows:
BOS 3-2 O.T. (with no value)
PHX@BOS u5.5 (with excellent value)

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