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SJS-NYI

Let’s get right into this analysis then, and see what we find:

NYI has been playing extremely hard recently based on how they’ve performed as underdogs.
Normally we should heed that and suspect a possible upset.
But upon closer examination…when you are 1-3 against the likes of FLA, WPG, EDM, CGY, that’s speaking volumes. Regardless of how close the games were…your club must have issues.

SJS, on the other hand, has won 4 straight and all of those were against play-off teams and 3 of those were won by the spread!

When we look at SJS vs NYI historically, SJS is 6-1 @ NYI since ’96.
So these teams don’t play each other enough to understand any real historical context.

So if we can’t find any historical context with these teams on the versus, maybe there are some outstanding pointers that we can find in the Raymond Report.

SJS-NYI RayReport

As we see, all teams do extremely well when playing @NYI and it jumps right out at us.

Thinking back to yesterday, there is always something to be said when teams do extraordinarily well, or extraordinarily poor, when playing @away/home; so, if we’re looking for a quick summary with a fountain of information at our fingertips, then the Raymond Report is the spot to look. The Raymond Report contrasts how the league scores in certain areas, and how whatever team we’re looking at stacks up against that, (differential%).

With that said…the report shows that SJS is 1-3-0 vs home opponents with a 31-40% winning%.
That stat should cause panic because it means, “the worse the opponent is, the worse that SJS plays”.

So then something we should also think about is the strong PVI indication against SJS:

LEAGUE :NHL
DATE :2014-03-14
Time Teams SU-L3-Record Value Season SU Record Value SU Result
W-L % W-L %
18:05:00 SAN JOSENY ISLANDERS 3 – 01 – 2 066.67 43 – 2425 – 42 35.8262.69 0.180.65

We can see that the PVI here states that when we compare SJS’s L3G with their season record, that they are way above par in their last 3 games (100%). Naturally, since they’ve won 64% of their season games, compared to the 100% over the last 3 games, it’s clear to see that across these L3G they’re above their norm. For this reason, we are wise to consider that “what goes up, must come down”, and we should factor that into our analysis. Considering the quality of teams that SJS has been walking over lately, compared to NYI’s slack performance of late, we should still consider SJS despite the PVI warning…but be warned.

So let’s peruse the 80% Club for Blue Star stats….let’s look for some convincing stats that support this waning SJS pick here…

Team System Trends

Team Trends
W – L Records W – L Records O/U Records
ATS Winner SU Winner Over/Under
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When CALGARY team played as a Road team – Before a conference game – After a conference game – Coming off vs Northwest division opponent – Coming off a 1 game win 10-2-0 7-5-0 5-5-2
When VANCOUVER team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Non Division Opponent – Last 3 years – Coming off 1 under 10-2-0 5-7-0 5-5-2
When COLORADO team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs Western conference opponent – With 1 day off – Coming off a 1 goal win 10-1-0 7-4-0 3-7-1
When NASHVILLE team played as a Road team – Total is 5.5 – Coming off a 3 goal win 20-4-0 16-6-2 10-14-0
When ANAHEIM team Played as Road team as a Favorite – During the month of March – Scored 2 or less goals FOR in their last game 8-6-0 12-2-0 5-7-2
When NEW JERSEY team played as a Road team – Vs Eastern conference opponent – Last 5 years – Coming off a 1 goal win – Allowed 1 or less goals AGAINST in their last game 10-6-0 9-7-0 0-10-6
When FLORIDA team played as a home team – Last 5 years – After a conference game – Coming off a division Sandwich 5-5-1 5-5-1 2-9-0
When NY RANGERS team Played as Road team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Coming off 3 unders 5-7-0 5-7-0 2-8-2

 

Random Team System Trends
Random Team Trends
W – L Records W – L Records O/U Records
ATS Winner SU Winner Over/Under
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When NASHVILLE team played as a Road team – With 2 day off – Last 2 years 13-1-0 8-6-0 1-11-2
When COLORADO team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Last 3 years – After a division game 12-2-0 9-5-0 9-4-1
When FLORIDA team played as a home team – Last 2 years – playing on Friday 6-6-0 4-8-0 1-9-2
When ANAHEIM team Played as Road team as a Favorite – During the month of March – Vs Conference Opponent 6-6-0 10-2-0 6-6-0
Smart Stats System Trends
Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
When NASHVILLE Played as a Underdog – During Last 4 Years – Won Last Game by 3 Goals or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 3 Lost in L5G 15 – 1 – 0 11 – 5 – 0 9 – 5 – 2
When WINNIPEG Played as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – Lost Last Game by 1 Goals or More – With SU Record of 0 Win 3 Lost in L3G 14 – 3 – 0 11 – 6 – 0 6 – 9 – 2
When VANCOUVER Played as a Underdog – During Last 5 Years – Won Last Game by 1 Goals or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G 8 – 2 – 0 6 – 4 – 0 4 – 5 – 1
When CALGARY Played as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – Won Last Game by 5 Goals or Less – With SU Record of 4 Win 3 Lost in L7G 8 – 3 – 0 2 – 9 – 0 2 – 8 – 1
When WASHINGTON played as a home team – During Last 4 Years – Lost Last Game by 2 Goals or Less – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 4 – 6 – 0 8 – 2 – 0 3 – 7 – 0

Where is San Jose? So another point that troubles us about the SJS pick here today is the fact that there are no blue stars to support their case. Considering they’re always a top 5 team, the simplest answer is that SJS doesn’t play their best hockey in this position.
But now look at this! Changing gears for a minute, for all of you total bettors out there:

  • 6 Blue Stars say “UNDER”, 0 Blue Stars say “OVER”.

I find that’s ATSSTATS in a nutshell. I’ll be looking for some quality stats, I find them, but before I can even leave the page, I find stats that are even better still, without even trying,  accidentally.

Grand Salami u44.5 anyone?

So that’s another point about the 80% club. It’s objectivity.

When we look at the 80% Club Smart Stats System, we find several underdogs that have blue stars WTS, but also they have green stars SU. Talk about value! NSH, WPG, VAN. Which of those 3 are hot lately? Which of those are playing opposition that’s in a slump?

Also to all you fans of SU Streakcatcher.com … what better way to find your “dog of the day?”

If the versatility of ATSSTATS doesn’t blow our mind guys…then nothing will.

Here’s the Top 20 Trends:

20 Team Trends

SAN JOSE 20 Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When SAN JOSE team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Coming off a 1 goal win 5-8-0 7-6-0 6-6-1
When SAN JOSE team played as a Road team – Vs Eastern conference opponent – Last 4 years – Playing in back to back games 3-6-0 5-4-0 6-2-1
When SAN JOSE team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Before a non conference game – Last 4 years – Coming off a 1 goal win 5-3-0 4-4-0 2-6-0
When SAN JOSE team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Before a non division game – Last 5 years – Coming off a 1 goal win 8-9-0 10-7-0 4-12-1
When SAN JOSE team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent – Coming off a 1 goal win 6-9-0 8-6-1 8-6-1
When SAN JOSE team played as a Road team – During the month of March – After a non division game – Coming off a 1 goal win 7-15-0 9-13-0 7-10-5
When SAN JOSE team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Before a non division game – After a non division game – Playing in back to back games 11-14-1 17-8-1 13-11-2
When SAN JOSE team played as a Road team – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent – Coming off 2 overs 6-9-1 5-9-2 8-8-0
When SAN JOSE team played as a Road team – Before a non conference game – Total is 5.5 – 3 games in 4 nights 5-13-0 7-11-0 6-12-0
When SAN JOSE team played as a Road team – Last 2 years – 3 games in 4 nights 8-11-0 5-14-0 8-10-1
When SAN JOSE team played as a Road team – playing on Friday – Last 5 years – Allowed 3 or less goals AGAINST in their last game 6-8-0 5-9-0 8-5-1
When SAN JOSE team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Before a non division game – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite 2-6-0 3-5-0 4-4-0
20 Team Trends
NY ISLANDERS 20 Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When NY ISLANDERS team played as a home team – With 3 days off – After a non division game – Allowed 4 or less goals AGAINST in their last game 11-14-1 12-11-3 15-11-0
When NY ISLANDERS team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Last 2 years – Coming off 2 overs 5-3-0 4-4-0 6-2-0
When NY ISLANDERS team played as a home team – Vs Western conference opponent – After a non division game – Coming off 2 overs 11-4-0 9-4-2 6-8-1
When NY ISLANDERS team played as a home team – Total is 5.5 – Coming off a 3 goal win 8-20-2 9-17-4 16-14-0
When NY ISLANDERS team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Before a non division game – Total is 5.5 – Coming off a 1 game win 14-10-1 12-12-1 12-13-0
When NY ISLANDERS team Played as Home team as a Underdog – With 3 days off – Allowed 4 or less goals AGAINST in their last game 11-3-1 10-3-2 7-8-0
When NY ISLANDERS team played as a home team – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 6-10-5 6-10-5 9-11-1
When NY ISLANDERS team played as a home team – Last 4 years – Total is 5.5 – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 7-13-1 7-13-1 15-6-0
When NY ISLANDERS team played as a home team – Total is 5.5 – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 24-33-4 23-32-6 29-32-0
When NY ISLANDERS team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs Western conference opponent – Coming off a 3 goal win 5-1-2 4-2-2 3-2-3
When NY ISLANDERS team played as a home team – Before a conference game – Total is 5.5 – Allowed 4 goals AGAINST in their last game 19-16-2 16-18-3 14-23-0
When NY ISLANDERS team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Total is 5.5 – Coming off a 3 goal win 3-7-1 2-8-1 7-4-0

The top 20 Trends that helped us so much yesterday are neither here nor there today.
I mean, for all intents and purposes, these stats look deadlocked.

At a glance there is nothing for most people to use from this.
But for people that know what SJS -165 and NYI +152 means…this begins to paint a crystal clear picture that screams “underdog value”!

So again, with ATSSTATS, as long as we sit down with an open mind, a little bit of time, and use some interpretation, in the long run, we won’t go wrong.

So to wrap this up, for the exact same reason as we didn’t pick PHX to upset yesterday, we won’t be picking NYI to upset today:

  • Their record at home is irreconcilable, much less against a SJS squad that just trounced 4 PO teams in a row, and 3 of them ATS.
  • -They’ve been steady losing to bottom 10 teams, much less the likes of SJS.
  • – Even though we found value in the 20 Trend section, New York home games are a terrible place to find value. *Visitors playing @NY, across any sport, as a rule, have bonus value.*

But with that said…

We also discovered a few troubling issues with setting full confidence in SJS here today:

  • Their performance vs the worst teams in the league, when playing as visitors, can’t be explained nor ignored.
  • -The PVI rating gave us a small warning against SJS and spoke for NYI.
  • -They didn’t have any blue stars or Top 20 stats…which indicates that something about this position is not in their wheel house.
  • – NYI is a MadDog in the 2H of the season. Their consistent close games as underdogs prove that the whole team is playing in a way that screams, “please don’t cut me from the team coach!”
  • – NYI are up against a top 5 team tonight for one of the last times this season.You KNOW a few of them are pretending that this is the Stanley Cup. Last chance to impress!

At the end of the day? I think that we found some easier questions to answer, for instance:

  • – Why should the Grand Salami go u44.5 today?
  • – Smart Stat System Trends prove that there are 3 underdogs that deserve a closer look. Can we also use ATSSTATS to find out which one of those would be the best pick?

Predictions:

  • -NHL Grand Salami u44.5 (excellent value)
  • -San Jose to win 4-2. (little to no value)

Good luck to those of you reviewing one of the 3 dogs and placing your pick at Streakcatcher.com!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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