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PIT-PHI

Interesting FYI…
When revenging a loss versus opponent, PIT is: 10-1
PIT should be bringing their A-game today.

PIT has been proving hard to beat it’s L3G. It looks as if the adjustments they made late February to early March have been paying off. There defense has reduced the likes of ANA and WSH (x2) to 4GA L3G. 1.33GA vs teams like that proves that they’ve got their feet back under them.

PHI has some good points too. They beat NYR and WSH as small dogs recently but have been edged by TOR and NJD L2G. So being frustrated recently should cause PHI to be bringing their A-game today as well.

Let see if the Blue Star 80% Club report has anything to say about it:

Random Team Trends
W – L Records W – L Records O/U Records
ATS Winner SU Winner Over/Under
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Road team as a Favorite – before a division game – Last 3 years 11-5-0 14-2-0 9-6-1

Statistically PIT loses slightly more on the road and PHI wins slightly more at home.
So this statistic help ease that consideration due to PIT doing well on the road, as a favourite, in this position.

With PHI being in tough contention for a PO spot, I expect a slobberknocker out there.
PIT will be likewise trying to sharpen their teeth against a contending team like PHI and should be taking this game seriously despite their 11 rung lead in the league standing.

 

Let’s check the Raymond Report:

TEAM: PITTSBURGH
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.17 2.45
Home Games Avg 3.5 2.2
Road Games Avg 2.89 2.66
Last 3 Games Avg 2.67 1.33
Last 5 Games Avg 2.8 2
Last 10 Games Avg 3 2.7
vs. Division Games Avg 3.61 2.44
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.23 2.49
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.05 2.36
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.94 2.18
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2.96 2.46
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.54 2.63
After a Win Games Avg 3.21 2.51
After a Lost Games Avg 3.1 2.43
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.05 2.55
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.07 2
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.35 2.48
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.17 3.5
After an Over Games Avg 3 3.07
After an Under Games Avg 3.45 1.97
After a Push Games Avg 2.6 2
After 0 day off Avg 3.25 2.17
After 1 day off Avg 3.21 2.32
After 2 day off Avg 3.3 2.4
After 3 day off Avg 2.67 3.17
After 4 or more days off Avg 3 5.5
3.11 2.54

 

TEAM: PHILADELPHIA
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 2.83 2.92
Home Games Avg 2.87 2.71
Road Games Avg 2.79 3.12
Last 3 Games Avg 3.33 3.33
Last 5 Games Avg 3.8 3.2
Last 10 Games Avg 3.4 2.7
vs. Division Games Avg 2.95 3.47
vs. Conference Games Avg 2.9 2.98
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 2.7 2.83
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.5 3.94
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2.64 2.8
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.25 2.38
After a Win Games Avg 3.09 2.94
After a Lost Games Avg 2.61 2.9
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.67 2.4
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 2.74 2.74
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.44 3.39
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 2.42 3.17
After an Over Games Avg 3.09 2.81
After an Under Games Avg 2.48 3.2
After a Push Games Avg 3.14 2.43
After 0 day off Avg 2.36 2.36
After 1 day off Avg 3.09 2.97
After 2 day off Avg 2.56 3.13
After 3 day off Avg 5 2
After 4 or more days off Avg 3 3.67
2.99 2.94

The bottom line is that in this position PIT tends to score more goals, and allow less, than PHI.

PHI has a ton of green and is out performing most of the league on the Raymond Report stats, PIT is certainly showing less promise, but again, it comes down to the here and now, and PIT’s tendency to exact revenge against prior opponents could be key to their performance today. They will not be overlooking PHI. As far as they’re concerned, PHI is a threat.

 

The ATS Forecast looks confident in the o6.5 much less o5.5…
LEAGUE: NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins 
SIDE :-1203.68
Vs.Date: 2014-03-15
Time: 12:05:00Generated from 77 Previous Games
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers
O/U :5.5
2.96 = 6.64

…but PIT’s Fort Knox defense makes it hard to place stock in the ferocity of this contest. Given the seriousness of this matchup, both teams will have to scrap for every single shot on net. So when put into context, it’s tough to say:

  • PIT last 4 of 5 have gone U.
  • PHI last 4 of 5 have gone O.

 

Should we look at the Blue Star O/U Grand Salami again today?
Yes! We should look at it. We should look at everything:

Team System Trends

Team Trends
W – L Records W – L Records O/U Records
ATS Winner SU Winner Over/Under
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When BUFFALO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – before a division game – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent – Coming off vs Southeast division opponent 16-3-1 10-7-3 4-14-2
When NEW JERSEY team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Eastern conference opponent – After a conference game – Coming off a 2 game Road stand 12-2-0 7-7-0 5-6-3
When ST LOUIS team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off 1 over 8-3-1 8-2-2 5-6-1
When MINNESOTA team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Non Conference Opponent – With 1 day off – Allowed 1 goals AGAINST in their last game 6-5-0 9-2-0 5-3-3
When CAROLINA team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During the month of March – Last 5 years – Coming off 1 over 9-1-0 6-4-0 6-4-0
When LOS ANGELES team played as a home team – After a non conference game – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite 5-5-1 6-3-2 2-8-1
When PHILADELPHIA team played as a home team – During the month of March – After a conference game – Coming off vs Southeast division opponent 5-7-1 9-3-1 2-10-1
When TAMPA BAY team played as a home team – Last 4 years – playing on Saturday – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite 4-6-1 7-4-0 2-8-1
When NASHVILLE team Played as Home team as a Underdog – After a conference game – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 5-8-0 3-10-0 2-9-2
When BOSTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of March – With 1 day off – Scored 2 or more goals FOR in their last game – 3 games in 4 nights 8-4-0 8-4-0 2-10-0
When PHOENIX team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 4 years – playing on Saturday – Allowed 2 goals AGAINST in their last game 2-10-0 5-7-0 2-8-2

 

Random Team System Trends
Random Team Trends
W – L Records W – L Records O/U Records
ATS Winner SU Winner Over/Under
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Home team as a Underdog – During the month of March – Vs Eastern conference opponent 13-3-0 9-6-1 7-8-1
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Road team as a Favorite – before a division game – Last 3 years 11-5-0 14-2-0 9-6-1
When MINNESOTA team Played as Home team as a Favorite – playing on Saturday – After a non conference game 8-5-0 11-2-0 7-6-0
When TAMPA BAY team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a non conference game – Total is 5.0 5-8-1 6-5-3 9-2-3
Smart Stats System Trends
Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
When BUFFALO played as a road team – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 0 Win 3 Lost in L3G 10 – 1 – 0 7 – 4 – 0 5 – 6 – 0
When NASHVILLE Played as a Underdog – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 2 Win 5 Lost in L7G 25 – 6 – 0 16 – 15 – 0 13 – 12 – 6
When MINNESOTA played as a home team – During Last 4 Years – Won Last Game by 1 Goals or More – With SU Record of 4 Win 3 Lost in L7G 5 – 9 – 0 8 – 6 – 0 2 – 9 – 3

Once again, the Blue Stars in the O/U are indicating that there is a huge chance for this contest to go under. I would suggest that we look into some of these contests and vet them to see if the storyline supports that narrative in most cases. I hate to go back to the well when the Grand Salami didn’t connect yesterday, but given ATS Smart Stats Calculator, once I plug in the numbers, I think that all bets are OFF on this point.

Here was yesterday’s situation:

When All teams played as any home/road team During the 2013 season playing on Friday:


Over/Under: 110-122-22

And here is today’s situation:

When All teams played as any home/road team During the 2013 season playing on Saturday:


Over/Under: 224-186-50

So at least for today, we’ll be leaving the Salami for our sandwiches and pizzas…but not the betting window.

Positionally speaking:

  • When PITTSBURGH team played as a road team During the 2013 season playing on Saturday: 5-8
  • When PHILADELPHIA team played as a home team During the 2013 season playing on Saturday: 5-2

So I think that the case for PIT is made, but the case is light and with these last 2 facts brought to light, it could be a very tough call. I still gotta like PIT in this instance though so I’ll give them a hesitant ‘thumbs up’.

For those of us looking for value, PITTSBURGH and PHILADEPHIA  are from the same state and PHILADELPHIA has x5 the amount of whales (that still remember the days of Lindross) dropping blubber on the Home Team regardless of chances to win. This has cause PHI to pay less than it’s worth and it’s caused PIT to pay more than it’s worth. So just as with the COL decision a few days ago vs CHI, PITTSBURGH is the value shot here.

Predictions:
PITTSBURGH 3-2 final.

 

 

 

 

 

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