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PHI@PIT

Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers 
O/U :5.52.53
Vs.Date: 2014-03-16
Time: 11:35:00Generated from 159 Previous Games
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins
SIDE :-160
3.37 = 5.9

 

Yesterday, a main consideration regarding Pittsburgh was that they are 10-1 when revenging a loss against their opponent. They are now 10-2 playing that same opponent on a Back-to-Back. Intuition tells us that Pittsburgh will be out for revenge.

Let’s check out what the Super Database has to say about this very specific position:

  • When PITTSBURGH team played as a home team on back to back games Coming off a road loss: SU 22-15-3
  • When PITTSBURGH team played as a home team on back to back games Coming off a road loss Coming off a 4 goal loss: SU 3-1-2
  • When PITTSBURGH team played as any team Coming off a 4 goal loss: SU 26-25
  • When PITTSBURGH played as a home team Coming off a 4 goal loss: SU 16-8-3
  • When PITTSBURGH team played as a home team, on back to back games, After playing Philadelphia Flyers Coming off a road loss:  SU 2-4-0
  • When PITTSBURGH team played as a home team, on back to back games, After playing Philadelphia Flyers, Coming off a 4 goal loss: SU 0-1-0 

When a team like Pittsburgh gets blanked and also loses by 4, it’s because they’re trying new systems. Looking at Anaheim lately, we get that same idea, (3-1 loss vs TOR then a 7-4 loss vs CGY but then a 6-4 win vs COL and a 2-1 win vs LAK the very next day). Compounded on that is the idea that Pittsburgh is unrivaled in terms of the P.O. race, and doesn’t feel that risking injuries against a team like Philadelphia, who are desperately putting their bodies on the line for a P.O. spot, is worth it.

  • When Pittsburgh plays Back-to-Back? Their W-L is 1:1.
  • When Pittsburgh plays Back-to-Back at home? Their W-L is 2:1.

That’s huge! But we have to ask ourselves how many of those were vs a desperate Philadelphia squad, fighting for their playoff spot? Didn’t we see yesterday what happens in this position when Philadelphia trounced them 4 zip?

Let’s look at Philadelphia:

  • When PHILADELPHIA team played as a road team on back to back games Coming off a home win: SU 25-17-5
  • When PHILADELPHIA team played as a road team two back to back games Coming off a home win Coming off a 4 or more goal win: SU 4-3-2
  • When PHILADELPHIA team played as any home/road team Coming off a 4 or more goal win: SU 62-43-8
  • When PHILADELPHIA played as a road team Coming off a 4 or more goal win: SU 30-21-5
  • When PHILADELPHIA team played as a road team two back to back games After playing Pittsburgh Penguins Coming off a home win: SU 3-1-0
  • When PHILADELPHIA team played as a road team two back to back games After playing Pittsburgh Penguins Coming off a 4 goal win: SU 1-0-0

So following through on the Back-To-Back theme, we see that Philadelphia has earned this consideration. Given that Pittsburgh is trying to save injuries and Philadelphia has absolutely nothing to lose…even if Pittsburgh plays their tight defensive system and plays for the win, we should still think that they’re lucky if they see OT vs Philadelphia.

Oh! And also don’t forget the historical consideration:
PHILADELPHIA is 7-3-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons

Let’s take a look at the Top 20 report:

PHILADELPHIA 20 Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Before a non division game – Total is 5.5 – Coming off vs Southeast division opponent 14-12-1 11-15-1 12-15-0
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Before a non conference game – Coming off a 1 game win 7-7-0 6-8-0 6-6-2
When PHILADELPHIA team played as a Road team – Before a non conference game – Allowed 0 or less goals AGAINST in their last game 4-7-0 4-5-2 7-4-0
When PHILADELPHIA team played as a Road team – Vs Eastern conference opponent – After a division game – Coming off a 2 game Home stand – Coming off a 1 game win 7-7-0 7-6-1 8-5-1
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Road team as a Underdog – playing on Sunday – Last 4 years – Playing in back to back games 6-9-0 3-12-0 8-5-2
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Before a non conference game – Scored 4 goals FOR in their last game 8-1-0 6-2-1 1-7-1
When PHILADELPHIA team played as a Road team – Before a non conference game – Total is 5.5 – Coming off a 1 game win 10-10-2 12-8-2 12-10-0
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Eastern conference opponent – Total is 5.5 – Coming off vs Southeast division opponent 27-13-1 19-21-1 19-22-0
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Before a non conference game – Total is 5.5 – Playing in back to back games 3-5-0 2-6-0 3-5-0
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Division Opponent – Total is 5.5 – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite 8-7-0 5-10-0 8-7-0
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Division Opponent – playing on Sunday – Coming off a 1 game win 6-4-0 3-7-0 6-4-0
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent – Coming off a 1 game win – Scored 4 goals FOR in their last game 6-5-0 4-7-0 7-4-0
PITTSBURGH 20 Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When PITTSBURGH team played as a home team – Vs Eastern conference opponent – During the month of March – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 9-7-3 12-5-2 9-7-3
When PITTSBURGH team played as a home team – Last 5 years – After a conference game – Playing in back to back games 8-7-0 12-3-0 11-4-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a conference game – Scored 0 goals FOR in their last game 7-7-1 9-5-1 7-8-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a home team – Last 5 years – After a division game – Coming off a 1 game loss 10-9-0 11-8-0 8-11-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 5 years – During the month of March – Allowed 4 or more goals AGAINST in their last game 7-4-0 9-2-0 8-3-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 5 years – After a conference game – Coming off vs Southeast division opponent 23-19-1 31-12-0 24-18-1
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 2 years – After a conference game – Coming off vs Southeast division opponent 11-7-0 15-3-0 12-6-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a home team – After a division game – Scored 0 goals FOR in their last game 6-6-0 8-4-0 4-6-2
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a non division game – After a division game – Allowed 4 or more goals AGAINST in their last game 17-13-2 21-6-5 15-14-3
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 2 years – After a conference game – Allowed 4 or more goals AGAINST in their last game 5-5-0 9-1-0 7-3-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Division Opponent – During the month of March – Coming off vs Southeast division opponent 6-2-0 7-1-0 4-4-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of March – After a division game – Allowed 4 or more goals AGAINST in their last game 4-3-1 5-1-2 2-5-1

Wow. So now we see a completely different picture!

Ultimately, Philly was an underdog yesterday as well (although playing at home) and that 4-0 throttling doesn’t let me see the Top 20, when trying to look around the Playoff considerations.

  • Pittsburgh is 2nd in their Conference by a mile.
  • Philly is struggling with about 9 other teams for a playoff spot.

That said, powerhouse Kunitz, with 4G and 4A in his L3G, is still a huge question mark for today and that could make a big difference.

Let’s take a peek at today’s SOS standings:LEAGUE : NHL

PR :- Power Rating ,W-L :-Win Loss
TeamName Current Season Last 7 Games Last 14 Games
TeamName W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R
PHI 34-32 51.52 48.48 48.28 0.50 4-3 57.14 42.86 48.98 0.53 9-5 64.29 35.71 58.16 0.61
PIT 44-22 66.67 33.33 48.20 0.57 4-3 57.14 42.86 46.94 0.52 8-6 57.14 42.86 48.47 0.53

So looking at the whole season, PIT has performed better against tougher competition.
But looking at the last 14 games, Philadelphia has left Pittsburgh in the dust in that category.
The only other team in the league that’s as hot as Philly right now is San Jose.
The SOS is indicating that Philly are over-performing. Philly are playing with some serious mojo. The SOS is indicating that Pittsburgh are in a lull and playing their weakest hockey of the season.
This should definitely mitigate the strength of the Top 20 and other general ATS situation statistics.

We see the SOS supporting the Playoff narrative.
We saw yesterday’s final support today’s SOS.

 

Blue Stars:

When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 5 years – During the month of March – Allowed 4 or more goals AGAINST in their last game 7-4-0 9-2-0 8-3-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a home team – Total is 5.5 – During the month of March 30-25-3 40-10-8 24-34-0

Pittsburgh had a Blue Star yesterday as well, and so given the ‘case specific’ nature of this matchup, the SOS, the playoff context, the historical dominance of Pittsburgh on behalf of Philadelphia…I don’t feel comfortable letting these considerations derail what the narrative seems to be pointing at here. With all things equal, I’d like Pittsburgh here, but the narrative is not equal.

Let’s check the Raymond Report:

Road Team
(PHILADELPHIA)
When PHILADELPHIA is a Road Team When Any NHL Team is a Road Team Differential % When PHILADELPHIA is a Road Team,the O/U When Any NHL Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 5.5 8-13-0 300-351-2 42.02 15-6-0 316-337-0 40.09
vs Division opponent 5-7-0 166-187-1 44.28 6-4-2 154-166-34 45.94
vs Conference opponent 3-6-0 129-155-0 39.38 6-3-0 127-127-30 41.67
Playing in the month of March 1-1-0 55-55-1 49.78 2-0-0 53-52-6 24.76
Playing on Sunday 1-3-0 46-48-0 36.97 2-1-1 42-45-7 42.53
Weekend game 7-8-0 154-179-0 46.46 9-4-2 156-144-33 39.39
Played as road Team 15-19-0 464-547-2 44.96 19-11-4 447-467-99 43.88
After a Division Game 4-7-0 125-173-0 39.16 7-3-1 134-138-26 40.37
After a Conference Game 5-15-0 256-313-1 34.96 12-6-2 253-261-56 42.06
Before a Non-Division Game 13-17-0 370-459-1 43.96 17-9-4 374-372-84 42.25
Before a Non-Conference Game 9-6-0 211-241-0 53.34 10-4-1 202-204-46 39.41
vs Southeast Division Opponent 5-7-0 126-140-1 44.43 6-4-2 117-129-21 46.22
vs Eastern Conference Opponent 8-13-0 256-278-1 42.98 12-7-2 233-244-58 44
Coming off vs Southeast Division Opponent 4-7-0 124-132-0 42.4 7-3-1 116-116-24 40
Coming off vs Eastern Conference Opponent 5-15-0 247-281-1 35.85 12-6-2 235-242-52 42.03
Coming off 2 under 2-3-0 53-62-0 43.05 3-1-1 53-51-11 37.02
Coming off a win 10-11-0 243-273-1 47.31 11-7-3 229-238-50 44.93
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 4-5-0 108-101-0 48.06 6-2-1 96-93-20 37.11
Coming off a 2 home stand 2-6-0 76-65-0 39.45 5-2-1 55-72-14 42.63
Coming off a 4 goals win (since 1996) 20-11-4 22-17-0 56.78 18-12-5 20-13-6 39.7
Coming off a score 4 goals FOR in last game 5-2-0 70-94-0 57.06 4-3-0 70-77-17 47.62
Before Playing CHICAGO (last 3 years) 0-1-0 13-14-0 24.08 1-0-0 13-12-2 24
After Playing PITTSBURGH (last 3 years) 3-4-0 10-18-0 39.29 4-2-1 14-9-5 36.23
Coming off 2 division games 1-4-0 46-76-0 28.85 4-1-0 53-59-10 36.34
Coming off 2 conference games 2-10-0 187-225-1 30.98 7-3-2 175-197-41 41.48
Two back to back games 5-4-0 99-140-0 48.49 3-4-2 106-114-19 54.48
vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % 1-4-0 52-101-0 27 4-1-0 73-64-16 33.36
vs PITTSBURGH (last 3 years) 6-3-0 6-24-0 43.34 5-3-1 16-13-1 41.17
Last 30 days 1-1-0 64-67-1 49.24 2-0-0 63-62-7 24.8
Last 45 days 3-2-0 91-113-1 52.2 4-1-0 90-102-13 36.57
Last 60 days 3-4-0 138-168-2 43.84 6-1-0 141-146-21 32.58
Last 90 days 9-7-0 228-279-2 50.52 11-3-2 240-225-44 34.91
Home Team
(PITTSBURGH)
When PITTSBURGH is a Home Team When Any NHL Team is a Home Team Differential % When PITTSBURGH is a Home Team,the O/U When Any NHL Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 5.5 20-6-0 351-300-2 65.34 15-11-0 316-337-0 46.96
vs Division opponent 9-3-0 187-166-1 63.91 7-4-1 154-166-34 44.12
vs Conference opponent 7-2-0 155-129-0 66.18 4-5-0 127-127-30 52.78
Playing in the month of March 1-0-0 55-55-1 74.78 0-1-0 53-52-6 74.76
Playing on Sunday 1-0-0 48-46-0 75.53 1-0-0 42-45-7 25.86
Weekend game 4-0-0 179-154-0 76.88 3-1-0 156-144-33 36.5
Played as home Team 24-6-0 547-464-2 67 16-13-1 447-467-99 47.96
After a Division Game 12-2-0 221-176-2 70.55 8-5-1 177-177-45 44.23
After a Conference Game 19-3-0 375-308-2 70.55 13-8-1 307-308-70 44.09
Before a Non-Division Game 18-5-0 406-370-2 65.23 15-7-1 358-352-68 40.7
Before a Non-Conference Game 7-2-0 211-212-2 63.72 5-3-1 201-188-36 42.92
vs Southeast Division Opponent 9-3-0 148-124-2 64.51 7-4-1 129-117-28 41.96
vs Eastern Conference Opponent 16-5-0 299-241-2 65.68 11-9-1 251-242-49 47.05
Coming off vs Southeast Division Opponent 12-2-0 137-138-1 67.68 8-5-1 130-129-17 44.14
Coming off vs Eastern Conference Opponent 19-3-0 275-258-1 68.93 13-8-1 237-255-42 44.97
Coming off 4 under (since 1996) 11-8-0 11-17-0 48.59 7-10-2 13-10-5 51.15
Coming off a lost 9-3-0 287-248-1 64.27 5-7-0 240-238-58 54.06
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 2-1-0 117-91-1 61.33 1-2-0 82-102-25 61.05
Coming off a 4 goals loss 1-0-0 22-7-0 87.93 1-0-0 14-10-5 20.84
Coming off a score 4 goals AGAINST in last game 3-1-0 91-83-1 63.5 2-2-0 78-80-17 50.32
Before Playing DALLAS (since 1996) 4-0-0 16-16-0 75 2-2-0 14-12-6 48.08
After Playing PHILADELPHIA (last 3 years) 6-2-0 15-17-0 60.94 4-4-0 17-15-0 48.44
Coming off 2 division games 2-0-0 93-76-1 77.36 2-0-0 81-68-21 22.82
Coming off 2 conference games 12-2-0 272-212-2 70.84 10-3-1 220-217-49 36.37
Two back to back games 2-0-0 66-47-1 78.95 1-1-0 49-53-12 50.98
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 7-4-0 142-127-1 58.12 6-5-0 106-133-31 50.55
vs PHILADELPHIA (last 3 years) 3-6-0 19-15-0 44.61 5-3-1 19-11-4 37.09
Last 30 days 1-1-0 67-64-1 50.38 1-1-0 63-62-7 49.8
Last 45 days 2-2-0 113-91-1 52.56 2-2-0 90-102-13 51.57
Last 60 days 5-3-0 168-138-2 58.53 5-3-0 141-146-21 44.19
Last 90 days 10-3-0 279-228-2 65.87 9-4-0 240-225-44 39.58

 

So according to the Raymond Report, this matchup looks like a top 5 team taking on a bottom 5 team. In fact, we might have to wait an entire season to a a match up look this one-sided.
If the Blue Stars didn’t give us pause, then this definitely should…

 

Value Considerations:

  • Pittsburgh is a namebrand and is 2nd in the league
  • Pittsburgh is playing at home
  • Pittsburgh is playing at home on the weekend

So the Pittsburgh whales with Box Seats and/ Season Tickets are dropping heavy money on Pittsburgh today. According to them, lightening won’t strike Pittsburgh twice.

This has completely deflated the value of the Pittsburgh moneyline and therefore Philadelphia has some incredible value associated with the moneyline today.

I get the impression that Philadelphia has at least equal chances to win today, although the Blue Stars and Raymond Report would make me think that this one will end in a nail-biter.

It might be Philadelphia Flyers vs Pittsburgh Penguins on the ice, but on paper, this is definitely raw stats vs big picture narrative.

Today’s Prediction:
Philadelphia to win 3-2. (maximum value)

 

 

 

 

 

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