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MIN@BOS

Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild 
O/U :52.17
Vs.Date: 2014-03-17
Time: 18:35:00

Generated from 158 Previous Games

Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins
SIDE :-175
3.09 = 5.26

First and foremost the PVI SU rating has become a completely relevant consideration so let’s take a look:

LEAGUE :NHL
DATE :2014-03-17
Teams SU-L3-Record Value Season SU Record Value SU Result OU-L3-Record Value Season OU Record Value OU Result Final Result
W-L % W-L % O-U % O-U %
MINNESOTABOSTON 1 – 23 – 0 66.670 35 – 3245 – 22 47.7632.84 0.570.16 1 – 21 – 1 33.3350 19 – 3226 – 23 37.2553.06 0.350.52 0.44

With Minnesota above .50 and with BOS well below .50, the PVI is predicting that MIN may very well end BOS’s streak here tonight. Which the PVI can’t tell us exactly which matchup the bottom falls out on, it can predict that the odds of it happening today are far more likely than the odds of it happening last game, or 2 games ago, or 3 games ago etc etc.

  • Did you know… Minnesota is 6-0 SU, when playing at Boston, since 1996?
  • Did you know… Minnesota is 10-2 SU, when playing Boston, since 1996?

Another perfect candidate for an upset tonight would be PHX@LAK. But since LAK dominates them 6-2 @LAK L3S, and since LAK is still in a fight for their Playoff spot, I felt Minnesota, 7th in their conference, was the better bet.

Why are we even looking at Underdogs today at all? Because when big favourites and big names play at home, especially on weekends, their ML gets pounded by all the people betting that team from that city as they drop 10 large before making their way to their season ticket seats. This means that the value is always going to be with the visiting underdog before we even look at any stats. If we can make a reasonable case, then we know that we’re sitting on pure value.

Let’s check the SOS:

 

LEAGUE : NHL
PR :- Power Rating ,W-L :-Win Loss
TeamName Current Season Last 7 Games Last 14 Games
TeamName W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R
BOSTON 45 – 22 67.16 32.84 47.95 0.58 7 – 0 100 0 40.82 0.70 11 – 3 78.57 21.43 43.37 0.61
MINNESOTA 35 – 32 52.24 47.76 50.47 0.51 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 59.18 0.51 7     – 7 50 50 52.55 0.51

 

So Boston is the hottest team in the league right now. Not only on their own, but compared to the competition that they’ve been facing and beating. That is huge. But again, PVI greatly mitigates this consideration.

Minnesota is playing a consistent 0.51 meaning that they have been on an even keel. The point of this observation is so that we know that their norm has is and will be playoff quality. We should absolutely expect that from them today.

 

Let’s check out some Super Stats:

  • When BOSTON team played as any team Coming off a 5 winning streak: SU 24-18

Minnesota hasn’t lost by more than a single point in any of their last 8 outings. In fact, they’ve won half of those games, and 1 of them was as a +130 underdog. This qualifies them as a HotDog and they are hungry to keep their 7th spot in their conference.

 

Blue Star Consideration:

When BOSTON team played as a home team – Last 2 years – playing on Monday 4-7-0 9-2-0 5-4-2

 

Head To Head Considerations:

Team System Trends

MINNESOTA Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When MINNESOTA played as Road Underdog- Vs Atlantic Division 17-13-0 11-18-1 10-20-0
When MINNESOTA played as Underdog- With Total between 5.0 and 5.5 18-12-0 10-20-0 9-15-6
When MINNESOTA played as Home or Away Team- Vs Atlantic Division 5-5-0 4-6-0 3-5-2
When MINNESOTA played as Home or Away Team- in the month of March 16-9-0 15-10-0 13-7-5
When MINNESOTA played as Road Team- With Total between 5.0 and 5.5 58-42-0 39-61-0 34-48-18
When MINNESOTA played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 5.0 and 5.5 11-9-0 11-9-0 5-10-5
When MINNESOTA played as Underdog- Vs BOSTON 9-0-0 8-1-0 3-6-0
When MINNESOTA played as Road Team- Vs BOSTON 5-1-0 6-0-0 2-4-0
When MINNESOTA played as Underdog- in the month of March 18-7-0 12-13-0 12-7-6
When MINNESOTA played as Underdog- Vs Atlantic Division 17-8-0 11-13-1 8-16-1
Team System Trends
BOSTON Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When BOSTON played as Home or Away Team- in the month of March 16-14-0 20-10-0 11-15-4
When BOSTON played as Home or Away Team- Vs Northeast Division 7-3-0 7-3-0 5-3-2
When BOSTON played as Home Favourite- Vs Northeast Division 6-14-0 12-8-0 9-6-5
When BOSTON played as Home Favourite- With Total between 5.0 and 5.5 23-27-0 36-14-0 12-20-18
When BOSTON played as Home Team- in the month of March 10-10-0 14-6-0 8-12-0
When BOSTON played as Home Favourite- Vs MINNESOTA 0-5-0 0-5-0 2-3-0
When BOSTON played as Favourite- in the month of March 14-21-0 23-12-0 16-16-3
When BOSTON played as Home or Away Team- Vs MINNESOTA 3-9-0 2-10-0 4-8-0
When BOSTON played as Home Team- With Total between 5.0 and 5.5 16-19-0 26-9-0 8-12-15
When BOSTON played as Favourite- Vs Northeast Division 14-26-0 26-14-0 20-13-7

So head to head we see Minnesota with a few encouraging statistics here, and although the ATS and Smart stats had Minnesota well in the red and Boston well in the green, PVI addresses all of that and suggests that we look for reasons why there might be an upset. The reasons why Boston might win here are too many to name, but PVI is suggesting we search some more.

Did you know that when the line steams…

  • WITH the minority of bettors
  • WITH the underdog
  • On the 1st game in the nevada rotation

…that the chance for an upset appears to increase?
Backup goalies have not been a scourge but a blessing to the teams that are playing in this 2nd half of the season. Minnesota has their backup in net tonight, vs the #1 team in the league. I expect handstands and somersaults.

But as much as we have high hopes for Minnesota tonight, the gut feeling simply isn’t there.
BOS is too big and too bad. They are on their A-Game and haven’t fumbled a game, yet.

Where other teams seem to do poorly after winning 5 of more, Boston wins in this scenario nearly 2:1. All of their stats check out, they have the blue star, they dominate Minnesota in the ATS and Smart pick categories and the Raymond report has Minnesota as nearly all red, with Boston being nearly all green.

To those of us that banked on the value of the PHI pick yesterday, this game has a different feel to it. Is there something better that we can look at?

Prediction: Boston to win 2-1. (no value)

 

 

 

 

 

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