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PHX@LAK

Phoenix Coyotes
Phoenix Coyotes 
O/U :52.25
Vs.Date: 2014-03-17
Time: 21:35:00Generated from 158 Previous Games
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings
SIDE :-175
2.64 = 4.89

We’ve talked about ROAD DOG VALUE, but it won’t hurt to touch on it again.

When the HOME team is…

  • A namebrand team
  • A top ten team
  • A team from a city with a massive populace
  • Priced as chalk

…then, the sheer number of people betting on that team for no other reason than “they’re from the same city as me” will drive the value of that team’s moneyline through the floor. This is especially true if the game falls on a Friday, Saturday, or Sunday.

If we’re about picking SU wins and losses for a pool or a fantasy league, this is not a consideration that we need to bother with…but if we are studying Chances To Win x Odds Paid = Value…then this is handicapping 101 and it is in our wheelhouse.

  • LAK are powerrated at a near even -114
  • LAK ML odds are set at -181

I wonder if the fact that L.A. at 3.8 million citizens has anything to do with that? (2nd largest city in the NHL)
I wonder if the fact that California at 38.3 million citizens has anything to do with that? (1st largest state in the NHL)

So are we saying that we should never ever bet LAK at home?
Well nothing is “never ever”, but basically, yup, that’s exactly what we’re saying. Regardless of their chances to win, the sheer number of “blind betting” will continually drive the value through the floor. So just like Philly yesterday, we should be looking to snipe some road dog underdogs today as well. The same way that poker pros will sometimes not even look at the cards and “go in blind”, is the same way that that the sheer value in this contest could almost justify betting the underdog without looking at so much as one statistic.

So that’s needs saying, first and foremost.

That said, there is making a calculated pick on an underdog, and then there is just plain wishful thinking. So with that in mind, let’s look and see if we can make an easier case than the one with MIN@BOS.

 

Let’s start with the Strength of Schedule:

LEAGUE : NHL
PR :- Power Rating ,W-L :-Win Loss
TeamName Current Season Last 7 Games Last 14 Games
TeamName W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R
LOS ANGELES 38 – 30 55.88 44.12 50.54 0.53 5 – 2 71.43 28.57 44.90 0.58 8 – 6 57.14 42.86 52.04 0.55
PHOENIX 32 – 36 47.06 52.94 50.34 0.49 5 – 2 71.43 28.57 48.98 0.60 7 –  7 50.00 50.00 52.04 0.51

So as we see, LAK is holding steady around the .55 mark.
But we also see that PHX has been over-performing @ .60 the L7G without a question.
According to the SOS, this is a great spot to try for some value.

 

Netminding:
Quick has been outstanding this season…but not vs PHX.
For some reason, PHX seems to have his number to the tune of 3.50GAA .877% this season.
If PHX starts Smith, they’ll have competent netminding to the tune of 93.0 save percentage L4G.

 

P.V.I. doesn’t look like a factor in this matchup. Everything is even Steven.

 

With PHX contending for their 8th place spot in the west, with them winning where they should L7G, with them never losing by more than 1 and even winning as odds underdogs L7G, they are a HotDog and we should expect them to bring the kitchen sink to LAK tonight. Given that they’re from the same conference, PHX will be imagining that this is a semi-finals contest where these two teams may very well meet, for real, again in a months time.

 

The Raymond Report is a massive combination of valid information so I’ll just pick a few out that jump off that page should give us pause when thinking about the PHX pick today:

PHX stats are less than flattering when playing @LAK this season: SU 2-6-0 L3S
PHX stats are less than flattering western conference opponents this season: SU 7-16-0

But again, this needs to be taken in the light that they’re performing the best that they have all season over their L7G (S.O.S factor of .60)

There are a pile of Super Star stats that reflect LAK as being a playoff team and PHX as being a ‘lucky to be in the playoffs’ team.

So I think we’ll just take a quick look at the Blue Stars and see what they can show us:

When LOS ANGELES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a division game – Coming off a 2 game Home stand ATS: 5-13-0 ML: 15-2-1
When PHOENIX team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During the month of March – Last 3 years ATS: 16-4-0 ML: 7-13-0
When PHOENIX played as a road team – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 5 Win 2 Lost in L7G ATS: 12-3- 0 ML: 9 – 6 – 0
When LOS ANGELES played as a home team – During Last 3 Years – Lost Last Game by 1 Goals or More – With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G ATS: 7 -4- 0 ML: 9 – 2 – 0

So on the first glance, LAK has 2 Blue Stars as far as the SU win in this position.
But if we look a little closer, we see a few other points too.
We see that LAK has a red star on the ATS.
We see that PHX has a blue star on the ATS.

If we interpret that, we see that LAK rarely wins by more than one point in this position, and we see that PHX rarely loses by more than one in this position.
So that should spell out a close contest here tonight.

One final point about ATSSTATS. If we just look at the obvious favourites in these contests, if we only look at the Blue Stars, it won’t do us enough good. Any gains in the “Chances To Win” category have already been realized and handicapped against by the bookmakers.

Trying to find a narrative and hunting value by interpreting what we see from all available sources, like psychological narratives, is always the way to go. Tunnel vision is a common occurrence with a monster database such as ATSStats so we have to look at these games in a bigger light as well.

So with all of that said, one final consideration:
The money is moving with the UNDERDOG, and the action MINORITY.
The last time we saw this pattern, PHI beat PIT 4-0.

Prediction: PHOENIX to win in a 3-2 (good value)

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