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COL@MTL

Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche 
O/U :52.4
Vs.Date: 2014-03-18
Time: 18:35:00Generated from 75 Previous Games
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens
SIDE :-135
2.52 = 4.92

We’re all about the value here at Capper’s Corner. There are a few writeups we could look at today that I’m sure would improve our SU record of 6-1 here at ATS Capper’s Corner; but, we’re not about the W-L so much as we’re about finding the value.

Truth be told, with BOS visiting NJD, there could be some value in the BOS pick. We should feel that BOS is paying generously at -125, but P.V.I. warns us that BOS is long overdue to lose, and NJD is fighting for a Playoff spot, at home…but NJD is under-perfoming lately and that kind of stuff won’t cut it against a team like BOS. So at least on the surface, a fair and obvious case could probably be made for BOS to win with value. That said, teams in NJD’s spot have a habit of using a team like BOS to make a point. They will probably be pretending that this contest is for the Stanley Cup and BOSTON might very well be looking ahead to COLORADO and might be caught up in an ‘overlook’ psychology.

So aside from a whole bunch of high chalk playing at home, (which is generally the worst value that we can find), we find this little COL@MTL gem in the mix.

Let’s begin analysis and hope that we find something!

 

Let’s look at some General Trends:

  • In the L10G, COL has lost only once and it was vs. LAK. (-110) and that was 10 games ago.
  • In the L10G, COL has as a dog, once to STL 2-1, and once vs ANA 6-4.
  • In the L10G, COL has won 2 games as underdogs.
  • Put simply, COL has been winning where they should and have been getting their licks in when they’re the underdog.
  • MTL is 4th in their Conference, but sit only 5 points from the cutoff.
  • MTL is 3-4 their L7G (3 of the losses were by the spread…but they’ve had the roughest opponents so we should be fooled
  • Put simply, MTL is as hungry as ever but has been struggling against the league elite. COLORADO with 93 points. MONTREAL with 81 points.

Yes, we should consider COL ‘league elite’ especially since there is nothing curious about their performance of late. They are a HotOddsDog in this contest and that should raise our eyebrows.

 

Strength Of Schedule says…:

LEAGUE : NHL
PR :- Power Rating ,W-L :-Win Loss
TeamName Current Season Last 7 Games Last 14 Games
TeamName W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R
COLORADO 44 – 24 64.71 35.29 49.26 0.57 5 – 2 71.43 28.57 44.9 0.58 9 – 5 64.29 35.71 49.49 0.57
MONTREAL 37 – 32 53.62 46.38 49.22 0.51 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 57.14 0.50 8 – 6 57.14 42.86 47.96 0.53

…COLORADO has consistently maintained itself on the higher side of things when compared to MONTREAL when playing superior opposition. Put simply, “COLORADO has performed better against comparable competition when compared with MONTREAL.”

P.V.I. is not really a factor in the SU consideration for today’s game, but let’s look at it anyway:

Parity Calculator For NHL

LEAGUE :NHL
DATE :2014-03-18
Time Teams SU-L3-Record Value Season SU Record Value SU Result OU-L3-Record Value Season OU Record Value OU Result Final Result
W-L % W-L % O-U % O-U %
COLORADOMONTREAL 2 – 12 – 1 33.3333.33 44 – 2437 – 32 35.2946.38 0.340.4 1 – 21 – 1 33.3350 34 – 3123 – 33 52.3141.07 0.430.46 0.45

That’s basically even Steven across the board.

 

Since “Tuesday” rhymes with “Treat” here are all of the NHL Blue Star Considerations for today…

Team System Trends

Team Trends
W – L Records W – L Records O/U Records
ATS Winner SU Winner Over/Under
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When TORONTO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Total is 5.5 – Last 2 years – Coming off a 1 game loss – Allowed 4 or more goals AGAINST in their last game 9-1-0 4-6-0 5-5-0
When NY ISLANDERS team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs Non Division Opponent – With 2 days off – Scored 4 or more goals FOR in their last game 13-2-2 12-3-2 10-5-2
When CAROLINA team Played as Road team as a Underdog – With 1 day off – Last 5 years – Coming off a 1 goal loss 21-4-0 10-15-0 13-11-1
When WASHINGTON team played as a Road team – Vs Non Division Opponent – Last 5 years – Coming off a 2 game Home stand – Allowed 2 or less goals AGAINST in their last game 9-2-1 6-5-1 6-4-2
When NASHVILLE team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Non Division Opponent – Last 5 years – Coming off a 1 game loss – Scored 1 goals FOR in their last game 8-2-0 5-5-0 3-7-0
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Home team as a Underdog – After a conference game – Scored 4 or more goals FOR in their last game 8-2-0 5-5-0 7-3-0
When BOSTON team played as a Road team – Total is 5.0 – Last 5 years – Playing in back to back games 12-3-0 10-5-0 7-6-2
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – playing on Tuesday – Coming off a 1 game win 11-2-0 7-6-0 3-9-1
When NY RANGERS team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Eastern conference opponent – Last 5 years – Coming off a 1 goal loss 9-6-0 12-3-0 7-6-2
When ANAHEIM team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of March – Coming off a 1 goal win 9-12-0 16-3-2 11-7-3
When NEW JERSEY team played as a home team – Total is 5.0 – playing on Tuesday – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 4-6-1 6-4-1 2-8-1

 

Random Team System Trends
Random Team Trends
W – L Records W – L Records O/U Records
ATS Winner SU Winner Over/Under
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During the month of March – playing on Tuesday 9-1-0 5-4-1 4-6-0
When NY ISLANDERS team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Last 4 years – Vs Western conference opponent 24-3-1 13-14-1 15-13-0
When TORONTO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Atlantic opponent – Last 4 years 28-11-1 19-21-0 31-6-3
When PHILADELPHIA team played as a home team – Before a non conference game – playing on Tuesday 12-9-3 13-3-8 12-11-1
When SAN JOSE team played as a home team – Vs Atlantic opponent – With 1 day off 11-18-2 16-13-2 5-23-3
When EDMONTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 5 years – After a non conference game 3-8-0 4-7-0 2-9-0
Smart Stats System Trends
Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
When WASHINGTON Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G 24 – 3 – 0 15 – 12 – 0 10 – 13 – 4
When CAROLINA played as any home/road team – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Under – Lost Last Game by 1 Goals – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 11 – 2 – 0 7 – 6 – 0 7 – 6 – 0
When BUFFALO Played as a Underdog – During Last 5 Years – With 2 Under or Less – Lost Last Game by 2 Goals or Less – With SU Record of 0 Win 3 Lost in L3G 9 – 2 – 0 7 – 4 – 0 4 – 5 – 2
When COLORADO played as any home/road team – During Last 2 Years – Won Last Game by 2 Goals 9 – 5 – 0 11 – 3 – 0 2 – 9 – 3
When OTTAWA Played as home team as a Underdog – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Under 8 – 2 – 0 4 – 6 – 0 3 – 5 – 2
When BOSTON Played as a Favorite – During Current Season – Won Last Game by 3 Goals or More 11 – 9 – 0 16 – 4 – 0 7 – 8 – 5
When PITTSBURGH played as a home team – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 6 – 6 – 0 10 – 2 – 0 4 – 8 – 0

…But make sure that we are doing our homework and following up on the Blue Stars! Make sure that they fit the big picture narrative! (Slumped goalies? Playoff contention? More injuries than normal? Playing strong as dogs lately? Playing weak as chalk lately? Playing Back-To-Back, and if so, are they stong on the B2B like Boston or are they weak on the B2B like like Minnesota? Use our minds and find the narratives. Always interpret the information!)

At any rate, as far as Colorado goes, they’ve got 2 Blue Stars stating that they’ll keep this within the spread, and that’s good news for us when trying to make the case for the odds underdog.

Today we’re going to post the entire Raymond Report so that the readers can peruse it at their leisure. Again, it shows that both of these teams have equally strong chances to win, and therefore when looking at the odds, it shows that we’re on the right side of the value:

RAYMOND REPORT FOR NHL

Game Date – 2014-03-18
Road Team :- (4417) COLORADO
Home Team :- (4418 )MONTREAL

 

COLORADOTeam Name: COLORADO(Road Team)
Money Line: COLORADO -105 vs MONTREAL -115
Spread Line: COLORADO +1.5 -320 —– MONTREAL -1.5 +260
O/U: COLORADO 5 -140 —– MONTREAL 5 +120
Game Date: Tuesday,March 18 2014 6:35 PM
Last Game: Won 3 – 1 vs Ottawa Senators
Current Game: Montreal Canadiens
Next Game: At WINNIPEG
Stats & Trends: COLORADO vs. MONTREAL
PVI Rating on Winning: 64.71%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 47.69%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 44.9%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 1 ATS Win – 1 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 56%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 51%
Road Teams Predicted Goals For: 3.08
Road Teams Predicted Goals Against: 2.96
Road Team
(COLORADO)
When COLORADO is a Road Team When Any NHL Team is a Road Team Differential % When COLORADO is a Road Team,the O/U When Any NHL Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 5 5-3-0 164-189-0 54.48 3-4-1 132-123-98 52.69
vs Non-Division opponent 13-8-0 302-364-1 53.59 8-12-1 296-305-66 55.38
vs Non-Conference opponent 10-4-0 173-208-1 58.36 5-9-0 168-178-36 57.87
Playing in the month of March 3-0-0 62-61-1 75 1-2-0 59-58-7 58.12
Playing on Tuesday 3-3-0 92-91-1 50 2-4-0 76-91-17 60.58
Weekdays game 14-8-0 311-371-2 54.56 9-13-0 293-324-67 55.8
Played as road Team 21-11-0 471-553-2 55.77 15-16-1 453-473-100 51.35
After a Non-Division Game 15-9-0 337-370-2 55.02 13-10-1 309-329-71 47.53
After a Non-Conference Game 11-5-0 205-229-1 57.94 10-6-0 189-205-41 44.77
Before a Non-Division Game 17-9-0 377-465-1 55.05 12-13-1 380-378-85 50.94
Before a Non-Conference Game 12-5-0 217-246-0 58.73 5-12-0 207-209-47 60.42
vs Atlantic Division Opponent 5-1-0 132-140-0 65.93 2-4-0 118-116-38 58.12
vs Eastern Conference Opponent 10-4-0 262-281-1 59.8 5-9-0 237-248-59 57.71
Coming off vs Atlantic Division Opponent 8-1-0 125-150-1 67.09 5-4-0 120-128-28 48.03
Coming off vs Eastern Conference Opponent 11-5-0 252-283-1 57.88 10-6-0 238-245-53 44.11
Coming off 1 under 4-4-0 113-135-1 47.69 4-4-0 118-112-19 49.35
Coming off a win 12-7-0 247-277-1 55.11 7-11-1 233-242-50 56.03
Coming off a Road Win as a Favorite 1-2-0 56-53-0 42.36 1-2-0 48-52-9 59.34
With 1 days off 15-6-0 238-280-2 58.6 10-10-1 238-233-49 49.74
Coming off a 2 goals win 5-1-0 41-72-0 59.81 1-4-1 48-57-8 67.15
Coming off a score 3 goals FOR in last game 2-3-0 98-128-1 41.59 2-3-0 105-104-18 54.88
Coming off a score 1 goals AGAINST in last game 5-2-0 79-95-0 58.42 3-4-0 78-79-17 53.73
Before Playing WINNIPEG (last 3 years) 0-1-0 11-19-0 18.34 1-0-0 12-15-3 27.78
After Playing OTTAWA (last 3 years) 1-0-0 16-20-0 72.22 1-0-0 17-14-5 22.58
Coming off 2 non-division games 7-8-0 221-282-2 45.22 11-4-0 218-233-54 39.17
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 7-4-0 129-143-0 55.54 6-5-0 101-138-33 51.6
vs MONTREAL (last 3 years) 1-0-0 16-19-0 72.86 1-0-0 11-18-6 31.04
Last 30 days 3-0-0 71-73-1 74.49 1-2-0 69-68-8 58.16
Last 45 days 5-2-0 94-108-1 58.87 3-4-0 89-104-10 55.52
Last 60 days 8-3-0 138-167-2 58.84 6-5-0 140-146-21 48.25
Last 90 days 10-6-0 229-275-2 53.88 9-6-1 241-222-43 43.98
TEAM: COLORADO
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.07 2.66
Home Games Avg 3.33 2.61
Road Games Avg 2.78 2.72
Last 3 Games Avg 3.33 3
Last 5 Games Avg 2.8 2.6
Last 10 Games Avg 3.5 2.8
vs. Division Games Avg 3.05 2.41
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.15 3.05
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 2.96 2.07
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.15 3.1
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2.93 2.22
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.19 2.81
After a Win Games Avg 2.84 2.65
After a Lost Games Avg 3.38 2.75
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.45 2.45
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 2.64 3.64
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.17 2.83
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4 2
After an Over Games Avg 2.94 2.44
After an Under Games Avg 3.1 2.6
After a Push Games Avg 3.33 6.33
After 0 day off Avg 2.71 2.86
After 1 day off Avg 3.07 2.35
After 2 day off Avg 3.5 2.67
After 3 day off Avg 2.6 4
After 4 or more days off Avg 3 5.33
3.08 2.96
MONTREALTeam Name: MONTREAL(Home Team)
Money Line: MONTREAL -115 vs COLORADO -105
Spread Line: MONTREAL -1.5 +260 —– COLORADO +1.5 -320
O/U: MONTREAL 5 +120 —– COLORADO 5 -140
Game Date: Tuesday,March 18 2014 6:35 PM
Last Game: Won 2 – 0 vs Buffalo Sabres
Current Game: Colorado Avalanche
Next Game: Vs. COLUMBUS
Stats & Trends: MONTREAL vs. COLORADO
PVI Rating on Winning: 53.62%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 58.93%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 59.18%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 1 ATS Win – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 55%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Home Teams Predicted Goals For: 2.46
Home Teams Predicted Goals Against: 2.56
Home Team
(MONTREAL)
When MONTREAL is a Home Team When Any NHL Team is a Home Team Differential % When MONTREAL is a Home Team,the O/U When Any NHL Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 5 12-9-0 189-164-0 55.34 5-10-6 132-123-98 57.46
vs Non-Division opponent 13-9-0 364-302-1 56.83 6-12-4 296-305-66 58.71
vs Non-Conference opponent 7-6-0 208-173-1 54.15 4-8-1 168-178-36 59.06
Playing in the month of March 2-1-0 61-62-1 57.93 2-0-1 59-58-7 24.79
Playing on Tuesday 5-6-0 91-92-1 47.46 4-5-2 76-91-17 55.03
Weekdays game 11-8-0 371-311-2 56.07 6-9-4 293-324-67 56.26
Played as home Team 19-16-0 553-471-2 54.1 11-18-6 453-473-100 56.58
After a Division Game 7-4-0 223-179-2 59.42 3-6-2 179-180-45 58.41
After a Conference Game 15-9-0 379-314-2 58.52 6-15-3 311-313-71 60.8
Before a Non-Division Game 15-13-0 411-377-2 52.8 10-16-2 364-357-69 55.53
Before a Non-Conference Game 8-6-0 214-217-2 53.28 3-10-1 206-191-36 62.52
vs Northeast Division Opponent 3-3-0 115-115-0 50 1-4-1 92-112-26 67.45
vs Western Conference Opponent 7-6-0 252-228-0 53.18 4-8-1 200-229-51 60.03
Coming off vs Atlantic Division Opponent 7-4-0 138-122-0 58.36 3-6-2 107-128-25 60.57
Coming off vs Eastern Conference Opponent 15-9-0 278-263-1 56.9 6-15-3 241-258-43 61.57
Coming off a 2 winning streak 1-1-0 71-47-1 54.83 0-1-1 58-50-11 73.15
Coming off 1 under 4-4-0 146-113-0 53.19 3-3-2 110-121-28 51.19
Coming off a win 8-10-0 264-218-1 49.55 5-9-4 210-231-42 58.34
Coming off a Road Win as a Favorite 1-3-0 40-21-0 45.29 1-3-0 23-35-3 67.67
With 1 days off 9-5-0 318-268-1 59.23 4-8-2 258-268-61 58.81
3 games in 4 nights 8-3-0 92-72-1 64.25 2-7-2 71-78-16 65.07
Coming off a 2 goals win 3-3-0 47-50-0 49.23 2-3-1 45-45-7 55
Coming off a score 2 goals FOR in last game 4-1-0 130-99-0 68.39 2-1-2 114-88-27 38.45
Before Playing COLUMBUS (last 3 years) 0-1-0 21-19-1 25.61 0-1-0 20-18-3 73.69
After Playing BUFFALO (last 3 years) 4-3-0 21-15-0 57.74 3-4-0 26-8-2 40.34
Coming off 2 division games 0-2-0 94-77-1 27.33 1-1-0 82-69-21 47.85
Coming off 2 conference games 9-7-0 275-216-2 56.02 4-10-2 223-221-49 60.6
vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % 2-2-0 60-90-0 45 1-2-1 77-58-15 54.82
vs COLORADO (last 3 years) 0-1-0 11-21-0 17.19 1-0-0 15-16-1 25.81
Last 30 days 2-2-0 73-71-1 50.17 2-1-1 69-68-8 41.49
Last 45 days 4-4-0 108-94-1 51.6 3-4-1 89-104-10 55.52
Last 60 days 5-5-0 167-138-2 52.2 3-6-1 140-146-21 58.86
Last 90 days 7-7-0 275-229-2 52.18 4-8-2 241-222-43 57.31
TEAM: MONTREAL
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 2.52 2.52
Home Games Avg 2.43 2.29
Road Games Avg 2.62 2.76
Last 3 Games Avg 2.67 2.67
Last 5 Games Avg 2 3.4
Last 10 Games Avg 2.6 3.2
vs. Division Games Avg 2.54 2.21
vs. Conference Games Avg 2.45 2.45
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 2.63 2.63
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.1 2.81
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2.65 2.57
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 2.76 2.24
After a Win Games Avg 2.25 2.42
After a Lost Games Avg 2.81 2.59
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.29 2.35
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 2.44 3.13
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.21 2.47
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.19 2.06
After an Over Games Avg 2.39 2.57
After an Under Games Avg 2.72 2.16
After a Push Games Avg 2.23 3.23
After 0 day off Avg 2.07 2.5
After 1 day off Avg 2.65 2.47
After 2 day off Avg 2.92 2.62
After 3 day off Avg 2.2 2.8
After 4 or more days off Avg 1.5 1.5
2.46 2.56

As we peruse the Head-Head matchups:

COLORADO Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When COLORADO played as Underdog- With Total between 5.0 and 5.5 31-14-0 23-22-0 21-21-3
When COLORADO played as Underdog- Vs Atlantic Division 18-12-0 17-13-0 14-15-1
When COLORADO played as Road Underdog- in the month of March 45-29-0 28-45-1 37-32-4
When COLORADO played as Road Team- Vs Atlantic Division 22-18-0 22-18-0 19-18-3
When COLORADO played as Road Team- With Total between 5.0 and 5.5 13-7-0 12-8-0 10-9-1
When COLORADO played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 5.0 and 5.5 22-18-0 24-16-0 23-16-1
When COLORADO played as Underdog- in the month of March 55-38-0 33-59-1 48-39-5
When COLORADO played as Road Underdog- Vs MONTREAL 3-1-0 3-1-0 2-2-0
When COLORADO played as Road Team- Vs MONTREAL 6-4-0 6-3-1 5-5-0
When COLORADO played as Road Underdog- Vs Atlantic Division 6-4-0 5-5-0 3-7-0
Team System Trends
MONTREAL Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When MONTREAL played as Favourite- With Total between 5.0 and 5.5 28-47-0 43-32-0 31-37-7
When MONTREAL played as Home Favourite- With Total between 5.0 and 5.5 13-27-0 21-19-0 15-22-3
When MONTREAL played as Home Team- Vs Northeast Division 10-15-0 10-15-0 9-15-1
When MONTREAL played as Home Favourite- Vs Northeast Division 13-37-0 22-28-0 21-25-4
When MONTREAL played as Home Favourite- in the month of March 5-15-0 11-9-0 9-11-0
When MONTREAL played as Home or Away Team- in the month of March 10-10-0 12-8-0 11-8-1
When MONTREAL played as Home Team- Vs COLORADO 4-6-0 3-6-1 5-5-0
When MONTREAL played as Home Team- in the month of March 18-32-0 30-20-0 20-25-5
When MONTREAL played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 5.0 and 5.5 15-25-0 20-20-0 15-18-7
When MONTREAL played as Favourite- Vs Northeast Division 6-14-0 10-10-0 10-10-0

 

 

 

The ATS Matchups:

COLORADO 20 Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – Before a non division game – playing on Tuesday – Coming off a 1 game win 8-2-0 7-3-0 2-6-2
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – playing on Tuesday – Coming off a 1 game win 11-2-0 7-6-0 3-9-1
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During the month of March – Coming off a 1 game win 5-6-0 4-7-0 7-4-0
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – Vs Non Division Opponent – Last 5 years – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent 11-7-0 11-7-0 9-9-0
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – During the month of March – After a non conference game – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent 7-3-0 7-3-0 4-5-1
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – Vs Atlantic opponent – Coming off a 2 goal win 6-4-0 6-3-1 4-5-1
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – Vs Eastern conference opponent – Last 2 years – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent 6-2-0 7-1-0 3-5-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Before a non conference game – playing on Tuesday – Coming off 1 under 5-2-1 3-4-1 4-4-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Allowed 1 goals AGAINST in their last game 15-9-0 14-10-0 9-12-3
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Atlantic opponent – Allowed 1 or less goals AGAINST in their last game 8-3-0 8-3-0 4-6-1
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Last 5 years – Coming off 1 under 9-3-0 8-4-0 5-7-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – With 1 day off – Last 3 years – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent 8-0-0 7-1-0 3-5-0
20 Team Trends
MONTREAL 20 Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – playing on Tuesday – After a conference game – 3 games in 4 nights 4-5-0 7-2-0 2-5-2
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a non conference game – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent 8-17-1 12-12-2 10-13-3
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – playing on Tuesday – With 1 day off – Scored 2 or more goals FOR in their last game 11-11-0 14-8-0 11-10-1
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – During the month of March – 3 games in 4 nights 11-7-0 10-6-2 7-7-4
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – Vs Western conference opponent – Coming off a 2 goal win 10-13-0 13-8-2 14-8-1
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – Before a non conference game – After a conference game – Coming off 1 under 6-8-1 5-7-3 4-11-0
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent – After a conference game – Coming off a 2 game winning streak 20-21-1 20-20-2 14-25-3
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a non conference game – With 1 day off – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent 6-8-1 8-6-1 5-8-2
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – Before a non division game – Total is 5.0 – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent – 3 games in 4 nights 4-9-1 6-7-1 5-3-6
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – Vs Non Division Opponent – After a division game – 3 games in 4 nights 8-15-0 9-13-1 5-13-5
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – Vs Non Conference Opponent – After a division game – 3 games in 4 nights 3-5-0 3-4-1 2-6-0
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 4 years – Coming off a 2 game winning streak 9-4-0 7-6-0 5-6-2

The Team Trends:

COLORADO 20 Random Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – During the month of March – After a non conference game 20-12-0 17-14-1 13-18-1
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – playing on Tuesday – Last 2 years 6-3-0 3-6-0 2-7-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During the month of March – playing on Tuesday 9-1-0 5-4-1 4-6-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Eastern conference opponent – Last 5 years 27-10-1 23-14-1 18-20-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Non Conference Opponent – With 1 day off 35-16-2 32-16-5 18-31-4
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Before a non division game – Last 2 years 21-12-0 15-18-0 14-16-3
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – With 1 day off – During the month of March 38-26-1 33-32-0 32-26-7
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Before a non division game – Last 3 years 26-17-0 16-27-0 18-22-3
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – With 1 day off – Last 5 years 69-37-0 49-57-0 46-56-4
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – Vs Atlantic opponent – Total is 5.0 9-9-0 8-10-0 9-5-4
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – Vs Non Conference Opponent – After a non conference game 65-44-5 58-43-13 49-57-8
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – With 1 day off – Vs Non Conference Opponent 35-16-2 32-16-5 18-31-4
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Total is 5.0 – Last 4 years 17-11-0 11-17-0 10-11-7
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Eastern conference opponent – After a non division game 59-28-3 50-33-7 36-46-8
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Eastern conference opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent 63-32-4 54-37-8 40-50-9
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – Vs Atlantic opponent – playing on Tuesday 3-4-0 3-4-0 4-3-0
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – Before a non division game – Last 3 years 28-20-0 19-29-0 19-26-3
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Non Conference Opponent – After a non division game 60-28-3 51-33-7 37-46-8
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – Before a non division game – With 1 day off 131-90-13 120-98-16 107-104-23
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – Before a non conference game – Last 3 years 11-6-0 12-5-0 5-12-0
20 Random Team Trends
MONTREAL 20 Random Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – With 1 day off – playing on Tuesday 13-11-0 17-7-0 11-11-2
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Total is 5.0 – Vs Non Conference Opponent 14-17-2 18-12-3 13-14-6
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – playing on Tuesday – After a conference game 25-37-4 37-22-7 27-35-4
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 2 years – During the month of March 1-7-0 5-3-0 5-3-0
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – Before a non division game – With 1 day off 98-96-4 106-76-16 83-94-21
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 2 years – After a conference game 16-19-0 21-14-0 12-22-1
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 5 years – With 1 day off 25-53-1 43-35-1 35-36-8
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of March – Vs Non Conference Opponent 3-7-1 6-2-3 6-5-0
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – With 1 day off – During the month of March 18-30-1 28-17-4 19-27-3
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – Last 2 years – playing on Tuesday 8-12-0 8-12-0 5-11-4
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – With 1 day off – Vs Western conference opponent 26-27-1 34-14-6 22-26-6
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – Before a non conference game – After a conference game 22-34-5 22-31-8 25-33-3
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 3 years – With 1 day off 14-32-1 23-23-1 20-23-4
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 3 years – Vs Western conference opponent 5-13-0 8-10-0 8-9-1
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 3 years – Vs Non Conference Opponent 6-13-1 9-10-1 9-10-1
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 5 years – After a division game 13-35-2 24-25-1 22-24-4
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of March – Vs Western conference opponent 2-7-1 5-2-3 6-4-0
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – Last 2 years – After a conference game 22-23-0 27-18-0 14-25-6
When MONTREAL team played as a home team – Total is 5.0 – After a division game 29-43-2 35-34-5 30-31-13
When MONTREAL team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 5 years – Vs Non Conference Opponent 11-23-3 20-15-2 17-16-4

 

 

 

The Smart Stats:

Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
When COLORADO played as a road team – During Current Season – Won Last Game by 2 Goals 6 – 0 – 0 5 – 1 – 0 1 – 4 – 1
When COLORADO Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under or Less 8 – 5 – 0 5 – 8 – 0 7 – 5 – 1
When COLORADO played as a road team – During Last 3 Years – With 1 Under or More 33 – 17 – 0 24 – 26 – 0 22 – 23 – 5
When COLORADO played as any home/road team – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Under – Won Last Game by 2 Goals or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G 8 – 8 – 0 8 – 8 – 0 5 – 8 – 3
When COLORADO played as a road team – During Last 4 Years – Won Last Game by 2 Goals 10 – 4 – 0 8 – 5 – 1 5 – 8 – 1
When COLORADO played as a road team – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under 8 – 6 – 0 5 – 9 – 0 7 – 6 – 1
When COLORADO played as any home/road team – During Last 2 Years – Won Last Game by 2 Goals 9 – 5 – 0 11 – 3 – 0 2 – 9 – 3
When COLORADO played as a road team – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G 11 – 12 – 0 10 – 13 – 0 7 – 14 – 2
When COLORADO Played as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G 17 – 6 – 0 13 – 10 – 0 11 – 8 – 4
Team System Trends
Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
When MONTREAL Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years – Won Last Game by 2 Goals or More 5 – 19 – 0 11 – 13 – 0 9 – 13 – 2
When MONTREAL played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Under or Less – Won Last Game by 2 Goals or More – With SU Record of 3 Win 4 Lost in L7G 3 – 1 – 0 2 – 2 – 0 1 – 2 – 1
When MONTREAL played as a home team – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under or More 13 – 16 – 0 17 – 12 – 0 10 – 16 – 3
When MONTREAL Played as home team as a Favorite – During Current Season – Won Last Game by 2 Goals or Less 1 – 11 – 0 5 – 7 – 0 4 – 5 – 3
When MONTREAL played as a home team – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 4 Lost in L7G 13 – 18 – 0 14 – 17 – 0 12 – 14 – 5
When MONTREAL played as any home/road team – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under or More 30 – 25 – 0 32 – 23 – 0 21 – 28 – 6
When MONTREAL Played as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under 6 – 13 – 0 10 – 9 – 0 5 – 11 – 3
When MONTREAL played as a home team – During Last 5 Years – Won Last Game by 2 Goals 9 – 15 – 0 10 – 14 – 0 11 – 9 – 4
When MONTREAL played as a home team – During Current Season – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G 2 – 8 – 0 5 – 5 – 0 3 – 4 – 3

…Everything is fine and normal and even.

But when we get to the Super Stats, the record skips a little bit for Colorado:

COLORADO 10 Super League Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Vs Eastern conference opponent – After a non division game – Total is 5.0 – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite – Coming off a 1 game win 27-37-1 31-32-2 23-34-8
When ANY NHL Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Before a non conference game – Last 4 years – During the month of March – Coming off a 2 goal win – Scored 3 or more goals FOR in their last game – Coming off a 1 game win 13-10-0 8-15-0 10-13-0
When ANY NHL Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – playing on Tuesday – Last 4 years – Before a non division game – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent – Allowed 1 or less goals AGAINST in their last game – Scored 3 or more goals FOR in their last game 10-8-0 5-13-0 9-7-2
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – During the month of March – Last 5 years – With 1 day off – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite – Scored 3 or more goals FOR in their last game – Coming off a 2 goal win 14-7-0 14-7-0 11-8-2
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Vs Eastern conference opponent – Last 3 years – Before a non division game – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent – Allowed 1 or less goals AGAINST in their last game – Coming off 1 under 94-80-0 78-96-0 75-80-19
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Vs Atlantic opponent – During the month of March – Before a non division game – Coming off a 2 goal win – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite – Scored 3 or more goals FOR in their last game 6-9-1 6-9-1 8-7-1
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Vs Non Conference Opponent – playing on Tuesday – Total is 5.0 – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent – Coming off a 2 goal win – Scored 3 or more goals FOR in their last game 18-26-1 20-22-3 16-25-4
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Vs Atlantic opponent – Total is 5.0 – Before a non conference game – Coming off a 2 goal win – Scored 3 or more goals FOR in their last game – Coming off a 1 game win 27-33-0 25-34-1 26-21-13
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Vs Non Division Opponent – Last 3 years – playing on Tuesday – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent – Allowed 1 or less goals AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a 2 goal win 16-7-0 12-11-0 10-10-3
When ANY NHL Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Last 4 years – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite – Scored 3 or more goals FOR in their last game 25-21-1 15-31-1 22-24-1
10 Super League Trends
MONTREAL 10 Super League Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – With 1 day off – During the month of March – Coming off a 2 goal win – Coming off 1 under 32-19-0 36-14-1 22-26-3
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of March – After a conference game – With 1 day off – Scored 2 or more goals FOR in their last game – 3 games in 4 nights – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite 16-14-2 21-8-3 11-18-3
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a non conference game – After a conference game – With 1 day off – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent – Coming off a 2 game winning streak 11-9-1 12-7-2 12-9-0
When ANY NHL Team played as a home team – Total is 5.0 – playing on Tuesday – 3 games in 4 nights – Coming off a 2 goal win 11-9-0 14-6-0 10-6-4
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Western conference opponent – Last 2 years – During the month of March – Scored 2 or more goals FOR in their last game – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a 2 goal win 9-21-0 18-12-0 13-14-3
When ANY NHL Team played as a home team – playing on Tuesday – Last 5 years – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite – 3 games in 4 nights 3-12-0 10-5-0 5-8-2
When ANY NHL Team played as a home team – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Last 3 years – Coming off a 2 game winning streak – Coming off 1 under 13-15-1 20-9-0 14-12-3
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a non division game – Last 4 years – During the month of March – Scored 2 or more goals FOR in their last game – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a 2 game winning streak 21-37-0 34-24-0 24-29-5
When ANY NHL Team played as a home team – Vs Western conference opponent – After a conference game – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite – Coming off a 2 game winning streak 41-47-0 57-29-2 35-45-8
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a non conference game – Total is 5.0 – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a 2 goal win 18-13-0 18-12-1 12-10-9

So it’s hard to say what this means exactly. I guess the statistics speak for themselves.
Should this scare us off the pick? I’ll let you guys decide that. But when you look at the PHILLY contest from yesterday, the stats weren’t “just a little bit” against PHILLY.
They were horridly against PHILLY.

So once again, it’s “the narrative x stats x interpretation = overall feel for the outcome”.
It’s not just, “more stars = win, less stars = loss”.

 

Some fun facts…

Did you know that:

  • COLORADO is 13-4-2 SU vs MTL since 1996
  • COLORADO is 15-5 after a win by 2 goals or more
  • COLORADO is 20-9 in the second half of the season
  • MONTREAL is 4-13-2 SU vs COL since 1996
  • MONTREAL is 9-9 after a win by 2 goals or more
  • MONTREAL is 14-14 in the second half of the season

If you don’t know ATSSTATS has a section called the SUPERDATABASE where you can piece together millions of combinations that apply to your game, and then you can see how the team has historically played in that situation. a A few SuperStats that might be relevant:

  • When COLORADO team played as a road team vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % During the 2013 season: 7-4-0
  • When MONTREAL team played as any home/road team vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % Last 90 days During the 2013 season: 5-4-0
  • When COLORADO team Played as a Underdog vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % During the 2013 season: 8-1-0

Thank you very much SUPERDATABASE. That last 8-1-0 statistic is the ticket to ease our nerves. It means that COLORADO takes teams in MONTREAL’s W-L bracket seriously, especially when the books have them rated as odds underdogs. By the way, 8 of those 9 games were on the road.

 

So perusing for value and looking at the different psychological factors and narratives that are playing throughout tonight’s game, we’ve found a game here where the value is right, the odds to win are right, and it’s a game that I think is going to leave us feeling like no matter the outcome, we were right to make the pick. Like I say, if we were about the W-L, I could always do a writeup on SJS that pays -350…but instead, I think that sniping the value and exploring what ATSStats can really do, is the best way forward.

COLORADO to win 4-2. (good value)
BOSTON to win 4-3. (good value)

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