St Louis Blues
Time: 19:05:00Generated from 151 Previous Games
SIDE :-1252.97 = 5.5
|Time||Teams||SU-L3-Record||Value||Season SU Record||Value||SU Result|
The P.V.I. has STL in the same place as BOS. Ultimately, the P.V.I. is more for people betting negative progression systems than it is for people who are trying to snipe winners and value.
That said, negative progression or not, what goes up must come down. So this P.V.I. rating is at the very least a small consideration against STL. But at the same time, it’s important to keep in mind that it highlights teams that have been recently playing above their own level.
PVI threat or playoff ready? They would both look the same. So unless we’re betting with systems that involve the philosophy of “they have to lose sooner or later” in mind, then P.V.I. is probably the one spot in ATSSTATS that we might shy away from. That said, other people swear by it and hold it as a key anchor point! ATS is deisnged to be versatile so find out what works for you and fits in with your way of doing things and let ‘er rip!
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE:
|LEAGUE : NHL|
|TeamName||Current Season||Last 7 Games||Last 14 Games|
In today’s SOS we can see plain as day that STL is hotter than they’ve ever been and CHI is in some kind of a funk these L7G. This is without question a quick way to find value in any contest. When the books are offering even money, and you see 2 teams with nearly a 20 point spread L7G, that means that it’s Hot Streak vs Cold Streak.
But look out! Anytime that happens, it is quite easy for a “look over” psychology to set in, and at the same time it can connect wit ha “desperation” psychology and it can cause the perfect storm for the upset. Completely unpredictable and completely annoying! Considering that these guys are in the same conference and considering that CHI is a championship name, I doubt that STL will drop the ball and treat them like they’re EDM or NYI. Considering CHI is 4-2 vs STL L3S, all the moreso that STL won’t be overlooking them. With CHI, PHI, PIT as their next three, I’d think that far from look-over, they’d want to get it started right.
Did you know these (Raymond Report) stats?
- STL vs Northeast Division Opponent 10-1-0
- Played as road Team 22-12-0
- Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 8-3-0
- With 1 days off 15-4-0
Let’s take a peek at the Blue Star Stats:
|When CHICAGO team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 3 years – Total is 5.5 – Playing in back to back games – 3 games in 4 nights||5-8-0||12-1-0||6-7-0|
|When CHICAGO team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 2 years – playing on Wednesday||4-6-0||9-1-0||4-5-1|
|When CHICAGO played as a home team – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 2 Win 3 Lost in L5G||6 – 6 – 0||10 – 2 – 0||4 – 6 – 2|
|When ST LOUIS played as a road team – During Last 3 Years – With SU Record of 4 Win 1 Lost in L5G||8 – 19 – 0||9 – 18 – 0||3 – 17 – 7|
Wow. So. Maybe this is where we can find the most value with ATSSTATS….maybe it’s not always the bets that it tells you are a good idea to make, but maybe sometimes it’s the bets that it tells you *NOT* to make!
But you know… I gotta wonder … which STL was showing up? Which CHI was showing up?
Because although CHI might not be doing extraordinarily bad…STL is definitely doing extraordinarily good!
Do the Strength of Schedule ratings maybe overrule this?
Team System Trends
|Team System Trends|
Yesterday we looked past the ATS Smart Stats and it bit us.
Perhaps today we should pay attention today?
I think it comes down to one thing…how does CHI do when playing on the b2b. Let’s construct a few of our own Smart Stats:
- When CHICAGO team played as any home/road team vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning %: SU 101-125-12
- When CHICAGO team played as any home/road team vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % During the month of March: SU 9-19-5
- When CHICAGO team played as any home/road team vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % During the 2013 season: SU 7-7-0
- When CHICAGO team played as a home team vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning %: SU 58-52-6
- When CHICAGO team played as a home team vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % During the month of March: SU 6-5-1
- When CHICAGO team played as a home team vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % During the 2013 season: SU 5-4-0
- When CHICAGO team played as any home/road team vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % on back to back games: SU 18-24-3
- When CHICAGO team played as a home team vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % two back to back games: SU 7-10-1
So basically this is confirming that the Back-To-Back situation could play into things tonight.
If I’m not mistaken, BOSTON has a higher W/L when playing on the Back-To-Back.
CHICAGO, on the other hand, appears to win play about 25% less when they’re on a Back-To-Back.
HERE ARE ALL OF THE ST. LOUIS STARS FOR TODAY:
HERE ARE ALL OF THE CHICAGO STARS FOR TODAY:
|Click on description to see Predictions on next game||Click on records||Click on records||Click on records|
|When CHICAGO played as Home or Away Team- in the month of March||33-42-0||40-35-0||41-33-1|
|When CHICAGO played as Favourite- Vs ST LOUIS||11-24-0||22-12-1||15-19-1|
|When CHICAGO played as Home Favourite- With Total between 5.5 and 6.0||28-47-0||49-26-0||31-44-0|
|When CHICAGO played as Home Favourite- Vs CENTRAL Division||9-21-0||18-12-0||11-18-1|
|When CHICAGO played as Home or Away Team- Vs CENTRAL Division||16-29-0||26-19-0||20-25-0|
|When CHICAGO played as Home Team- With Total between 5.5 and 6.0||10-10-0||12-8-0||9-11-0|
|When CHICAGO played as Favourite- in the month of March||19-31-0||27-23-0||28-21-1|
|When CHICAGO played as Home Team- Vs ST LOUIS||23-26-1||28-17-5||20-28-2|
|When CHICAGO played as Home Favourite- Vs ST LOUIS||11-19-0||18-11-1||13-16-1|
|When CHICAGO played as Favourite- Vs CENTRAL Division||4-11-0||7-8-0||6-9-0|
So it’s crystal clear that ATSSTATS has all of the matchups strongly favouring CHI.
- Head 2 Head: EVEN
- ATS Matchup: CHICAGO
- Team Trends: CHICAGO
- Smart Stat: CHICAGO
If STL was so much as a 1 point favourite, then I’d stay off this bet.
But as it is…
- the very strong S.O.S. considerations
- the obvious value in STL’s defense
So today’s prediction focuses on the S.O.S. but stands in direct contention with some of the more historical statistics.
Today’s Prediction: STL to win. 2-1