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FLA@PHX

Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers 
O/U :5.52.24
Vs.Date: 2014-03-20
Time: 21:05:00Generated from 132 Previous Games
Phoenix Coyotes
Phoenix Coyotes
SIDE :-230
3.23 = 5.47

Welcome to Capper’s Corner first LOCK PLAY.

Once again, teams are starting to do what they should.
Once again, if it looks like a winner, chicken dinner.

The amount of upsets starting in late January were too many to count and a lot of people gave up sports handicapping or betting on SU outcomes due to the daily debacles that were taking place. Things seemed to have died down now so let’s get back at finding the value in the chalk when and where we can.

OK let’s nail down 1 angle. PHX beat FLA 3-1, on a back-back situation 5 few games ago.
If we can show that PHX is particularly weak in back-back situations…then it stands to reason that if they beat FLA by the spread in that situation, that they should have no problems taking down a win today:

  • When PHOENIX played as any home/road team in back to back games: SU 95-120-16
  • When PHOENIX team played as any home/road team in back to back games vs. opponent with a 31% to 40% winning %: SU 8-11-4

Eureka! This is actually an incredible find.
Even when PHX plays the worst teams in the league, they are still a dismal 8-11-4…yet they pounded FLA 3-1.

With that said, FLA HAS been finding the back of the net. 3.2GF L5G is nothing to sneeze at but it’s the 3.4GA that is causing them their weakness.

Aside from a hungry WSH team and a #2 BOS team, nobody has moved past PHX in 8 games, and even then, BOS and WSH barely managed to edge past.

PHX is red hot, they’re in a playoff hunt, they’re up against 6 teams in their conference playing for a spot and I don’t see them letting us down at home.

 

 

PARITY VALUE INDEX:

LEAGUE :NHL
DATE :2014-03-20
Time Teams SU-L3-Record Value Season SU Record Value SU Result
W-L % W-L %
FLORIDA

PHOENIX

2 – 1

2- 1

33.33

33.33

26 – 43

33 – 36

62.32

52.17

0.48

0.43

PVI is letting us know that both teams have been playing at their par. Nothing is due.
Face value should apply.

 

 

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE:

LEAGUE : NHL
PR :- Power Rating ,W-L :-Win Loss
TeamName Current Season Last 7 Games Last 14 Games
TeamName W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R
OTT 28 – 40 41.18 58.82 50.33 0.46 1 – 6 14.29 85.71 48.98 0.32
PHX 33 – 36 47.83 52.17 50.31 0.49 5 – 2 71.43 28.57 61.22 0.66
  • OTT is doing their worst work of the season L7G.
  • PHX is doing their best work of the season L7G.

 

 

Blue Star Consideration:

When PHOENIX team Played as Home team as a Favorite – With 2 day off – Vs Eastern conference opponent 18-7-0 21-4-0 14-9-2

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT SAYS:

TEAM FLORIDA

Road Team
(FLORIDA)
When FLORIDA is a Road Team When Any NHL Team is a Road Team Differential % When FLORIDA is a Road Team,the O/U When Any NHL Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 5.5 8-15-0 310-361-2 40.42 12-11-0 325-348-0 49.77
vs Non-Division opponent 6-15-0 307-370-1 36.93 10-9-2 302-310-66 49.01
vs Non-Conference opponent 4-7-0 176-212-1 40.8 6-3-2 171-182-36 42.45
Playing in the month of March 2-3-0 69-70-1 44.65 3-2-0 67-66-7 44.81
Playing on Thursday 3-5-0 78-117-0 38.75 5-2-1 84-87-24 39.73
Weekdays game 8-14-0 318-380-2 40.9 11-8-3 301-332-67 47.28
Played as road Underdog 12-23-0 302-454-2 37.07 17-15-3 336-353-69 49.06
After a Non-Division Game 9-14-0 344-375-2 43.42 10-10-3 315-335-71 50.77
After a Non-Conference Game 5-11-0 211-232-1 39.39 5-8-3 195-208-41 56.58
Before a Non-Division Game 12-20-0 384-473-1 41.13 15-14-3 388-385-85 49.05
Before a Non-Conference Game 6-6-0 223-251-0 48.53 5-5-2 213-214-47 50.06
vs Northwest Division Opponent 2-2-0 105-133-0 47.06 1-2-1 100-122-16 60.81
vs Western Conference Opponent 4-7-0 211-277-1 39.76 6-3-2 218-230-41 42.34
Coming off vs Northwest Division Opponent 1-7-0 120-150-0 28.47 3-3-2 126-128-16 50.2
Coming off vs Western Conference Opponent 5-11-0 218-265-1 38.15 5-8-3 212-228-44 56.68
Coming off 1 under 3-9-0 115-137-1 35.23 7-3-2 120-114-19 39.36
Coming off a win 6-9-0 250-280-1 43.54 6-7-2 236-245-50 52.4
Coming off a Road Win as a Underdog 4-6-0 60-92-1 39.61 6-3-1 67-71-15 42.39
With 1 days off 7-15-0 243-286-2 38.79 10-11-1 242-240-49 51.09
Coming off two 1-goal game lost 3-5-0 75-85-0 42.19 2-4-2 68-75-17 59.56
Coming off a 1 goals win 2-6-0 125-130-1 36.92 2-5-1 111-123-22 62
Coming off a score 3 goals FOR in last game 4-4-0 99-131-1 46.43 2-4-2 107-106-18 58.22
Coming off a score 2 goals AGAINST in last game 3-5-0 117-121-0 43.33 3-4-1 103-111-24 54.51
Before Playing LOS ANGELES (since 1996) 2-6-2 15-26-0 28.3 8-2-0 26-13-2 26.67
After Playing SAN JOSE (last 3 years) 0-1-0 15-23-0 19.74 0-1-0 16-19-3 77.15
Coming off 2 non-division games 6-11-0 228-285-2 39.78 7-7-3 224-237-54 50.71
Coming off 2 non-conference games 2-3-0 108-145-1 41.26 1-3-1 112-122-20 63.57
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 3-12-0 183-225-2 32.32 7-7-1 187-187-36 50
vs PHOENIX (since 1996) 3-4-3 14-20-0 35.59 4-5-1 19-12-3 47.14
Last 30 days 2-3-0 78-82-1 44.23 3-2-0 77-76-8 44.84
Last 45 days 2-4-0 97-108-1 40.21 3-3-0 92-104-10 51.53
Last 60 days 5-7-0 140-166-2 43.56 8-4-0 141-150-17 42.44
Last 90 days 6-11-0 234-273-2 40.63 9-8-0 240-227-42 47.84

 

TEAM PHOENIX COYOTES:

Home Team
(PHOENIX)
When PHOENIX is a Home Team When Any NHL Team is a Home Team Differential % When PHOENIX is a Home Team,the O/U When Any NHL Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 5.5 14-12-0 361-310-2 53.75 16-10-0 325-348-0 45.09
vs Non-Division opponent 10-11-0 370-307-1 51.1 12-6-3 302-310-66 41.99
vs Non-Conference opponent 8-6-0 212-176-1 55.82 8-4-2 171-182-36 42.45
Playing in the month of March 3-1-0 70-69-1 62.5 2-2-0 67-66-7 49.81
Playing on Thursday 5-4-0 117-78-0 57.78 4-3-2 84-87-24 46.87
Weekdays game 13-8-0 380-318-2 58.1 10-9-2 301-332-67 49.91
Played as home Favorite 17-11-0 453-302-2 60.28 16-9-3 335-353-69 43.66
After a Division Game 10-3-0 228-181-2 66.2 6-5-2 183-183-45 47.73
After a Conference Game 15-7-0 384-318-2 61.37 12-8-2 317-316-71 44.96
Before a Non-Division Game 12-10-0 419-381-2 53.4 13-8-1 370-363-69 43.81
Before a Non-Conference Game 7-4-0 221-220-2 56.77 4-6-1 211-196-36 54.08
vs Atlantic Division Opponent 3-3-0 155-121-0 53.08 5-1-0 125-130-21 33.83
vs Eastern Conference Opponent 8-6-0 303-249-2 55.92 8-4-2 256-249-49 41.32
Coming off vs Northwest Division Opponent 10-3-0 123-89-0 67.47 6-5-2 101-92-19 46.56
Coming off vs Western Conference Opponent 15-7-0 270-204-1 62.51 12-8-2 207-214-54 45.42
Coming off a 2 winning streak 1-2-0 73-48-1 46.59 2-1-0 59-52-11 40.09
Coming off 1 over 4-4-0 123-114-0 50.95 6-2-0 116-103-18 36.02
Coming off a win 7-9-0 267-222-1 49.12 8-6-2 213-235-42 47.66
Coming off a Road Win as a Underdog 2-2-0 72-71-0 50.18 3-1-0 64-69-10 38.44
With 2 days off 7-2-0 111-105-0 64.59 5-4-0 99-102-15 47.6
Coming off two 1-goal game wins 1-1-0 29-26-0 51.37 1-1-0 20-27-8 53.73
Coming off a 1 goals win 4-2-0 129-106-1 60.67 2-3-1 98-114-24 56.89
Coming off a score 4 goals FOR in last game 3-1-0 90-77-1 64.29 2-2-0 77-83-8 50.94
Coming off a score 3 goals AGAINST in last game 4-4-0 118-113-1 50.43 4-4-0 112-104-16 49.08
Before Playing BOSTON (since 1996) 8-2-0 22-10-0 74.38 6-4-0 15-14-3 44.14
After Playing LOS ANGELES (last 3 years) 6-5-0 17-14-0 54.7 5-6-0 15-15-1 52.28
Coming off 2 division games 6-2-0 98-77-1 65.34 4-4-0 85-70-21 47.58
Coming off 2 conference games 13-5-0 280-219-2 64.06 10-7-1 228-224-49 45.37
vs. opponent with a 31% to 40% winning % 3-1-0 67-52-0 65.65 2-2-0 50-60-9 52.28
vs FLORIDA (since 1996) 4-3-3 23-13-0 51.95 4-5-1 17-16-3 52.02
Last 30 days 3-1-0 82-78-1 62.97 2-2-0 77-76-8 49.84
Last 45 days 4-2-0 108-97-1 59.55 2-4-0 92-104-10 59.87
Last 60 days 6-4-0 166-140-2 56.95 3-7-0 141-150-17 60.78
Last 90 days 10-9-0 273-234-2 53.13 8-9-2 240-227-42 50.78

 

  • aside from 2 slots, PHX is ABOVE league average in all areas.
  • FLA is BELOW the league average in every single consideration!

We won’t be charting all of the different statistical analysis between these teams in the Head-to-Head, ATS, Team, Super and Smart categories, but it’s to be noted that all of the Stars are on the right side in all categories. So like with STL last night, where although everything we considered left the teams feeling very comparable to win…once we looked at CHI and CHI had all of the stars (and trounced STL 4-0)…here we see the same thing but with PHX having all the stars.

If nothing else, it can assure us that we didn’t miss anything and there are no underlying themes that have FLA somehow better/equal in this situation. MadDogs can bite any given night, but instead of it being a 1:1 or 1:2 situation, I think they’ve died down and are back to biting us only 1:3.

 

Tonight’s Prediction: PHX to win 5-2. (low value)

 

 

 

 

 

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