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TBL@OTT

Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 
SIDE :-1103.19
Vs.Date: 2014-03-20
Time: 18:35:00Generated from 66 Previous Games
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators
O/U :5.5
2.81 = 6

So living and learning, looking back at the COLORADO vs MONTREAL blog post, we saw that everything in the ATSSTATS situations was dead even except for the SUPER TRENDS column.
For tonight, for all intents and purpose, TBL is likewise statistically deadlocked with OTT, except for the SUPER STATS section:

10 Super League Trends

TAMPA BAY 10 Super League Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – playing on Thursday – Last 3 years – Coming off a 4 game winning streak – Allowed 3 or less goals AGAINST in their last game 9-9-0 7-11-0 8-9-1
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Vs Atlantic opponent – Last 3 years – Coming off a 2 goal win – Playing in back to back games 9-10-0 7-12-0 8-8-3
When ANY NHL Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Last 5 years – During the month of March – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite 9-14-0 12-11-0 13-8-2
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – Total is 5.5 – Before a conference game – Playing in back to back games – Allowed 3 or less goals AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a 2 goal win 51-62-2 38-72-5 52-63-0
When ANY NHL Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – playing on Thursday – Last 4 years – Total is 5.5 – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent 29-41-1 45-25-1 40-31-0
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Vs Division Opponent – Last 2 years – Scored 5 or more goals FOR in their last game – Coming off 2 overs 21-19-0 17-23-0 19-15-6
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Total is 5.5 – Last 3 years – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite – Playing in back to back games 40-24-0 32-32-0 36-28-0
When ANY NHL Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Eastern conference opponent – Last 3 years – Before a non division game – Coming off 2 overs 9-12-0 16-5-0 11-8-2
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Vs Eastern conference opponent – Last 2 years – Total is 5.5 – Playing in back to back games – 3 games in 4 nights – Coming off 2 overs 23-8-0 18-13-0 16-13-2
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – After a division game – During the month of March – Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent – Coming off a 2 goal win – Allowed 3 or less goals AGAINST in their last game 25-25-0 20-29-1 23-24-3
10 Super League Trends
OTTAWA 10 Super League Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
When ANY NHL Team played as a home team – Before a non division game – After a non division game – During the month of March – Coming off a 2 game Home stand – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog – Coming off 1 over 15-17-1 11-20-2 12-14-7
When ANY NHL Team played as a home team – Vs Conference Opponent – During the month of March – Total is 5.5 – Coming off a 4 game losing streak 7-16-1 13-10-1 12-12-0
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Before a non division game – Total is 5.5 – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a 2 game Home stand 20-11-0 12-18-1 10-21-0
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs Atlantic opponent – playing on Thursday – With 1 day off – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent 56-28-1 39-41-5 39-35-11
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Before a non conference game – Last 5 years – During the month of March – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent 17-7-0 11-13-0 11-12-1
When ANY NHL Team played as a home team – playing on Thursday – During the month of March – Total is 5.5 – Scored 4 or less goals FOR in their last game – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog 16-10-1 12-13-2 11-16-0
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Before a non division game – Last 2 years – With 1 day off – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent 58-42-0 28-72-0 45-46-9
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs Atlantic opponent – Last 2 years – Total is 5.5 – Coming off vs Southeast division opponent 9-13-0 6-16-0 10-12-0
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Before a non division game – After a non division game – With 1 day off – Scored 4 or less goals FOR in their last game – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a 4 game losing streak 8-9-0 3-12-2 6-7-4
When ANY NHL Team played as a home team – Vs Division Opponent – Last 2 years – With 1 day off – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog 22-22-0 19-25-0 16-22-6

Granted, this isn’t close to the disparity that was there between COL and MTL, but it’s at least notable and it has TAMPA BAY as the edge favourite. Also it should be noted that OTT is slightly ahead in the Head-To-Head category.

And of course the historical stat from the team trends that everyone is buzzing about:

When OTTAWA played as Home Team- Vs TAMPA BAY SU: 25-5-0

So there is definitely some systems that clash between these teams, that leaves OTT advantageous…but the big question picture that we should ask is, “IF NOT NOW, WHEN?”

We should not look at TBL 4GF average L5G.
They were playing TOR, VAN, NJD, FLA PHX.
We should look at how they played BOS to the edge and PHX to the edge 5 and 6 games ago.

We should not look at OTT 4.6GA average L5G.
They were up against teams like: NYR COL MTL NSH WPG.
We should look at how they let NSH take 4GA, WPG 3GA, CGY 4GA and EDM 3GA.

Not only should we think that this is a great spot to pick TBL to win, but we should really like the o6.0 here as well. After looking, it’s actually o5.5. That’s HUGE value.

 

PARITY VALUE INDEX:

LEAGUE :NHL
DATE :2014-03-20
Time Teams SU-L3-Record Value Season SU Record Value SU Result
W-L % W-L %
TAMPA BAYOTTAWA 3 – 00 – 3 0100 38 – 3128 – 40 44.9358.82 0.220.79

So the PVI is showing us that OTT is overdue for a win today and TBL is overdue for a loss today.
This information is very good for people that are betting negative progression systems.
(betting on the same team to win until they do)

However for the intents and purposes of trying to pick value and snipe winners, then what we learn from this is that TBL is on a winning streak and OTT is on a losing streak.

While it’s true that PVI is based around a system that says, “what goes up must come down”, it also will always help tell us who iss up and who is down.

 

 

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE:

LEAGUE : NHL

PR :- Power Rating ,W-L :-Win Loss
TeamName Current Season Last 7 Games Last 14 Games
TeamName W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R
OTT 28 – 40 41.18 58.82 50.33 0.46 1 – 6 14.29 85.71 48.98 0.32 4 – 10 28.57 71.43 49.49 0.39
TBL 38 – 31 55.07 44.93 49.53 0.52 4 – 3 57.14 42.86 51.02 0.54 6 – 8 42.86 57.14 47.96 0.45

SOS shows us that OTT has the BY FAR worst SOS in the league, not only in the L7G but in the L14G as well.

SOS shows us that TBL was playing a little bit slackly L14G but has begun playing to their par L7G.

Again, if we think back to PVI, if OTT was somehow HOTTER their L14G or L7 games than their par, then we could suspect that something ought to give and they should be playing for the win. But when we see the SOS show us a picture like this, it takes the air out of the “what goes up” factor and it reinvests that air into the “who’s hot, who’s not” consideration.

All in all, both PVI and SOS are fantastic statistics to ponder and interpret as long as we do it on a case by case basis.

 

Did you know:

  • Ottawa is 1-8 at home L9G?

 

Did you know:

  • TBL might be 3rd in their conference but they’re only 7 points from the playoff cutoff?

 

Today’s predictions are:
TBL to win 5-3. (good value)
TBL@OTT to go o5.5 (great value)

 

 

 

 

 

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