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BOS@COL

Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins 
SIDE :-1203.02
Vs.Date: 2014-03-21
Time: 20:05:00Generated from 80 Previous Games
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche
O/U :5.5
2.56 = 5.58

So BOSTON with 10 straight wins! Holy Shmoley! What are the ramifications of something like that?

1. Anyone running a Martingale system on BOS’s streak is 10 deep going for 11.
If someone started with a $10 wager, they’d be betting $10,240 today.
If someone started with a $20 wager, they would be betting, $20 480 today.

COLORADO is PowerRated at +194 and yet is only paying +111.

Could Martingale systems be causing this massive value on BOS?
If someone is betting BOS to lose for no other reason than, “they’re overdue to lose”…
…could that cause a huge vacuum in the COL value? Could people over-betting COL to win by 1000% give us an awesome opportunity for value on BOS today?

There is massive value on BOS today, but bettors will have to look 10 straight wins in a row and admit that this could be pushing it.

 

2. COLORADO will be looking at BOS in a way that says, “If we can’t deal with a top 5 team here and now, at home, then we have no chance to win the cup either. COL will be walking in with the mentality that they’re playing in the finals tonight. We should not necessarily expect COL to be playing in the same funk that they’ve been in. We should absolutely appreciate that could show up and bring the kitchen sink with them.

 

3. BOSTON is not going to be overlooking this COLORADO squad tonight. They will be bringing their A-Game and trying to utterly intimidate COL. COL is a team that BOS might face for the cup and they will be looking to make a statement here tonight. COL shouldn’t be the only ones exercising a mock game 7 psychology tonight.

  • When BOSTON team played as any home/road team Vs Western conference opponent During the month of March: SU 18-21-4
  • When BOSTON team played as a road team Vs Western conference opponent During the month of March: SU 7-10-0
  • When BOSTON team played as any home/road team Vs Western conference opponent During the month of March Coming off a 5 winning streak: SU 2-0-0
  • When BOSTON team played as any home/road team Vs Western conference opponent Coming off a 5 winning streak: SU 4-4-0
  • When BOSTON team played as a road team Vs Western conference opponent Coming off a 5 winning streak: SU 1-2-0
  • When All teams played as any home/road team Vs Western conference opponent Coming off a 5 winning streak During the month of March: SU 60-47-7
  • When All teams played as a road team Coming off a 5 winning streak During the month of March: SU 53-57-5

So there is really anything too exciting about this situation for BOS. With or without their +5 streak.

 

 

PARITY VALUE INDEX

LEAGUE :NHL
DATE :2014-03-21
Time Teams SU-L3-Record Value Season SU Record Value SU Result
BOSTON

COLORADO

3 – 0

1 – 2

0

66.67

47 – 22

44 – 26

31.88

37.14

0.16

0.52

So PVI is telling us that BOS is long overdue for a loss, if we’re into betting negative progression systems.

And PVI is telling us that BOS is red hot, if we’re into sniping at value.across single games.

 

 

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

TeamName Current Season Last 7 Games Last 14 Games
TeamName W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R
BOS 47 – 22 68.12 31.88 47.95 0.58 7 – 0 100 0 46.94 0.73 11 – 3 78.57 21.43 46.94 0.63
COL 44 – 26 62.86 37.14 49.24 0.56 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 38.78 0.41 8 – 6 57.14 42.86 50.51 0.54

So this looks almost identical to the PHX – FLA matchup last night! The difference? BOS is paying near 1:1 instead of 1:2 like PHX. According to this, BOS is playing their best and COL is playing their worst. It’s a fact that sometimes teams go from cold slump to upsetting the hottest teams, and this feels like it could be one of those instances given the playoff psychology. So we shouldn’t be fooled, COLORADO is predicted to bring the kitchen sink.

With that said, they might stay cold in which case there is a chance that the  value is through the roof. If they do actually show up, they still have to move past a red hot BOSTON squad. So either way, at this evaluation, the odds are profitable no matter which COLORADO team shows up.

 

 

BLUE STAR CLUB

There are no significant SU Blue Star Stats for today’s game, but here are some that I found myself when looking through ATSSTATS:

When BOSTON played as Favourite- in the month of March 7-3-0 9-1-0 5-3-2
When BOSTON played as Home or Away Team- in the month of March 9-6-0 12-3-0 7-6-2
When COLORADO played as Home Underdog- in the month of March 7-8-0 3-12-0 10-5-0
When COLORADO played as Underdog- in the month of March 26-19-0 12-33-0 28-14-3

 

When BOSTON team played as a Road team – playing on Friday – Vs Non Division Opponent 24-31-3 19-36-3 30-25-3
When COLORADO team played as a home team – playing on Friday – Vs Eastern conference opponent 13-14-0 21-4-2 13-9-5

And BOSTON takes the Smart stats with a pile of Green Stars there as well.

Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
When BOSTON Played as road team as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 0 Lost in L3G 7 – 11 – 0 13 – 5 – 0 10 – 7 – 1
When BOSTON played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – Won Last Game by 2 Goals or More – With SU Record of 3 Win 0 Lost in L3G 13 – 23 – 0 24 – 12 – 0 14 – 17 – 5
When BOSTON played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 5 Win 0 Lost in L5G 7 – 14 – 0 15 – 6 – 0 10 – 9 – 2
When BOSTON Played as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 0 Lost in L3G 8 – 15 – 0 16 – 7 – 0 12 – 7 – 4
When BOSTON played as a road team – During Last 4 Years – Won Last Game by 2 Goals or More 36 – 25 – 0 39 – 22 – 0 26 – 27 – 8

So at the end of the day, BOSTON has a few up sides but so does COLORADO.
At the end of the day, all things equal, COLORADO still has a few red stars, in tonight’s position, that they will have to justify if they want to move past BOS with the “W”.

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR NHL

Game Date – 2014-03-21
Road Team :- (4009) BOSTON
Home Team :- (4010 )COLORADO

 

BOSTONTeam Name: BOSTON(Road Team)
Money Line: BOSTON -120 vs COLORADO +100
Spread Line: BOSTON -1.5 +260 —– COLORADO +1.5 -320
O/U: BOSTON 5.5 +105 —– COLORADO 5.5 -125
Game Date: Friday,March 21 2014 8:05 PM
Last Game: Won 4 – 2 vs New Jersey Devils
Current Game: Colorado Avalanche
Next Game: At PHOENIX
Stats & Trends: BOSTON vs. COLORADO
PVI Rating on Winning: 68.12%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 46%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 48.98%
Streaks: 10 SU Win – 3 ATS Win – 1 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 51%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 46%
Road Teams Predicted Goals For: 3.33
Road Teams Predicted Goals Against: 2.07
Road Team
(BOSTON)
When BOSTON is a Road Team When Any NHL Team is a Road Team Differential % When BOSTON is a Road Team,the O/U When Any NHL Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 5.5 8-4-0 312-365-2 56.31 5-7-0 328-351-0 55.01
vs Non-Division opponent 12-7-0 309-375-1 54.14 10-8-1 305-314-66 47.59
vs Non-Conference opponent 5-5-0 177-216-1 47.46 6-4-0 173-185-36 45.84
Playing in the month of March 5-0-0 72-76-1 74.16 4-0-1 71-71-7 25
Playing on Friday 0-1-0 52-75-0 20.47 1-0-0 55-61-11 26.3
Weekdays game 11-9-0 321-386-2 50.14 12-5-3 305-337-67 40.95
Played as road Team 19-13-0 481-568-2 52.58 19-10-3 465-486-100 42.79
After a Non-Division Game 10-11-0 345-381-2 47.51 13-8-0 318-339-71 44.85
After a Conference Game 14-6-0 263-321-1 57.48 12-5-3 259-270-56 40.23
Before a Non-Division Game 15-11-0 387-479-1 51.17 16-7-3 392-390-85 40.15
Before a Non-Conference Game 9-6-0 225-255-0 53.44 8-6-1 214-219-47 46.72
vs Northeast Division Opponent 2-2-0 106-143-1 46.2 2-2-0 116-109-25 49.22
vs Western Conference Opponent 5-5-0 212-280-1 46.5 6-4-0 218-234-41 45.89
Coming off vs Southeast Division Opponent 5-4-0 128-137-0 51.93 6-3-0 120-120-25 41.67
Coming off vs Eastern Conference Opponent 14-6-0 256-291-1 58.36 12-5-3 244-251-53 40.06
Coming off 1 over 5-5-0 114-153-1 46.27 7-2-1 117-119-32 36.32
Coming off a win 13-11-0 251-284-1 50.5 16-7-1 239-247-50 40.63
Coming off a Road Win as a Favorite 8-2-0 57-55-0 65.45 5-4-1 51-52-9 47.47
With 2 days off 3-2-0 92-84-0 56.14 1-1-3 69-83-24 52.31
Coming off a 2 goals win 0-5-0 43-74-0 18.38 2-3-0 50-59-8 57.07
Coming off a score 4 goals FOR in last game 4-4-0 76-96-0 47.1 6-2-0 74-81-17 38.63
Coming off a score 2 goals AGAINST in last game 6-5-0 117-123-0 51.65 5-5-1 103-113-24 51.16
Before Playing PHOENIX (since 1996) 4-6-1 20-15-0 46.75 1-8-2 9-23-3 80.39
After Playing NEW JERSEY (last 3 years) 0-2-0 19-11-0 31.67 0-2-0 10-20-0 83.34
Coming off 2 non-division games 5-9-0 228-288-2 39.87 8-6-0 225-239-54 47.19
vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % 1-2-0 55-105-0 33.86 0-3-0 75-68-17 73.78
vs COLORADO (since 1996) 5-6-0 13-23-0 40.78 4-7-0 19-15-2 53.88
Last 30 days 5-1-0 81-88-1 65.49 5-0-1 81-81-8 25
Last 45 days 5-2-0 95-112-1 58.55 5-1-1 93-105-10 34.85
Last 60 days 7-2-0 142-170-2 61.5 7-1-1 144-153-17 32.01
Last 90 days 10-6-0 233-278-2 53.96 12-3-1 241-231-41 34.47
TEAM: BOSTON
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.23 2.16
Home Games Avg 3.19 1.78
Road Games Avg 3.28 2.59
Last 3 Games Avg 4.33 1.33
Last 5 Games Avg 3.8 1.2
Last 10 Games Avg 4.1 1.5
vs. Division Games Avg 3.35 2.7
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.57 2.26
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 2.7 2
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.7 2.15
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.16 1.95
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.63 2.3
After a Win Games Avg 3.24 2.26
After a Lost Games Avg 3.23 2
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.5 2
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3 2.15
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.07 2.43
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.56 1.78
After an Over Games Avg 3.23 2.42
After an Under Games Avg 3.04 2.13
After a Push Games Avg 3.47 1.89
After 0 day off Avg 3.54 2.08
After 1 day off Avg 3.28 2.08
After 2 day off Avg 2.75 2.58
After 3 day off Avg 4 1.67
After 4 or more days off Avg 2.75 2.5
3.33 2.07
COLORADOTeam Name: COLORADO(Home Team)
Money Line: COLORADO +100 vs BOSTON -120
Spread Line: COLORADO +1.5 -320 —– BOSTON -1.5 +260
O/U: COLORADO 5.5 -125 —– BOSTON 5.5 +105
Game Date: Friday,March 21 2014 8:05 PM
Last Game: Lost 4 – 5 vs Winnipeg Jets
Current Game: Boston Bruins
Next Game: At NASHVILLE
Stats & Trends: COLORADO vs. BOSTON
PVI Rating on Winning: 62.86%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 46.27%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 40.82%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 1 ATS Win – 2 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 59%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 59%
Home Teams Predicted Goals For: 3.11
Home Teams Predicted Goals Against: 3.13
Home Team
(COLORADO)
When COLORADO is a Home Team When Any NHL Team is a Home Team Differential % When COLORADO is a Home Team,the O/U When Any NHL Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 5.5 19-10-0 365-312-2 59.64 16-13-0 328-351-0 48.26
vs Non-Division opponent 14-8-0 375-309-1 59.19 15-6-1 305-314-66 39.65
vs Non-Conference opponent 9-4-0 216-177-1 62.03 7-5-1 173-185-36 46.68
Playing in the month of March 3-2-0 76-72-1 55.51 2-3-0 71-71-7 55
Playing on Friday 4-2-0 75-52-0 62.87 4-2-0 55-61-11 42.96
Weekdays game 16-9-0 386-321-2 59.22 16-9-0 305-337-67 44.25
Played as home Team 23-13-0 568-481-2 58.97 19-15-2 465-486-100 47.61
After a Division Game 11-6-0 231-181-2 60.26 9-6-2 184-185-45 45.07
After a Conference Game 16-9-0 388-320-2 59.33 13-10-2 320-319-71 46.7
Before a Non-Division Game 21-10-0 424-382-2 60.11 17-13-1 373-366-69 46.43
Before a Conference Game 14-7-0 318-251-0 61.28 8-11-2 233-274-62 55.97
vs Atlantic Division Opponent 4-3-0 156-123-0 56.53 5-1-1 126-132-21 33.92
vs Eastern Conference Opponent 9-4-0 306-252-2 61.94 7-5-1 258-253-49 45.59
Coming off vs Northeast Division Opponent 11-6-0 148-117-1 60.18 9-6-2 107-124-35 46.84
Coming off vs Western Conference Opponent 16-9-0 273-206-1 60.44 13-10-2 208-218-54 47.33
Coming off a 2 losing streak 0-1-0 56-63-0 23.53 0-1-0 56-47-16 72.82
Coming off 2 over 4-1-0 57-54-0 65.68 3-2-0 52-53-6 45.24
Coming off a lost 9-3-0 298-257-1 64.3 8-4-0 250-248-58 41.57
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 1-3-0 121-97-1 40.13 1-3-0 86-108-25 65.34
With 1 days off 16-9-0 329-273-1 59.28 12-13-0 267-275-61 51.37
3 games in 4 nights 2-0-0 98-74-1 78.33 1-0-1 76-81-16 25.8
Coming off a 3 road stand 1-2-0 42-29-0 46.24 1-2-0 26-37-8 62.7
Coming off a 1 goals loss 5-0-0 145-127-1 76.56 4-1-0 115-131-27 36.63
Coming off a score 4 goals FOR in last game 6-4-0 91-78-1 56.77 6-4-0 78-84-8 45.93
Coming off a score 5 goals AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 31-28-2 44-33-0 53.98 28-27-6 35-38-4 50.57
Before Playing NASHVILLE (last 3 years) 3-0-0 19-17-0 76.39 1-1-1 17-17-2 50
After Playing WINNIPEG (last 3 years) 3-1-0 16-17-0 61.74 1-2-1 15-16-2 59.14
vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % 1-3-0 65-91-0 33.34 3-1-0 81-60-15 33.78
vs BOSTON (since 1996) 6-5-0 13-19-0 47.59 4-7-0 19-10-3 49.06
Last 30 days 4-3-0 88-81-1 54.45 4-3-0 81-81-8 46.43
Last 45 days 4-3-0 112-95-1 55.5 4-3-0 93-105-10 47.95
Last 60 days 6-4-0 170-142-2 57.07 7-3-0 144-153-17 40.76
Last 90 days 11-7-0 278-233-2 57.65 11-7-0 241-231-41 43.92
TEAM: COLORADO
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.09 2.74
Home Games Avg 3.33 2.61
Road Games Avg 2.82 2.88
Last 3 Games Avg 3.33 4
Last 5 Games Avg 3.4 4
Last 10 Games Avg 3.4 3.1
vs. Division Games Avg 3.09 2.52
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.17 3.1
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 2.96 2.21
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.95 3.2
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.1 2.38
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.19 2.81
After a Win Games Avg 2.84 2.73
After a Lost Games Avg 3.4 2.84
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.48 2.62
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 2.75 3.75
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.17 2.83
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4 2
After an Over Games Avg 2.97 2.51
After an Under Games Avg 3.1 2.71
After a Push Games Avg 3.33 6.33
After 0 day off Avg 2.88 3.13
After 1 day off Avg 3.06 2.43
After 2 day off Avg 3.5 2.67
After 3 day off Avg 2.6 4
After 4 or more days off Avg 3 5.33
3.11 3.13

 

So the Raymond Report is definitely showing us that COLORADO has a high likelyhood of showing up strong in this position here tonight.

BOSTON: Coming off a 2 goals win 0-5-0
COLORADO: Coming off a 1 goals loss 5-0-0

BOSTON: vs Non-Conference opponent 5-5-0
COLORADO: vs Non-Conference opponent 9-4-0

So this is what makes me nervous here…when we tried to examine the psychological narrative, we noted that COLORADO might be working as though this is the game that will justify their chances in the playoffs. It looked like there might be a counter-narrative where BOSTON would be trying to intimidate their non-conference opponents, but apparently, given that this is a road game, BOSTON might not show up strong. With that said, if we factor out the home/away:

  • When BOSTON team played as any home/road team Vs Non Conference Opponent During the 2013 season: SU 15-8-0
  • When BOSTON team played as any home/road team Vs Non Conference Opponent During the 2013 season During the month of March: SU 2-0-0

So looking in the here and now, S.O.S. makes this a no brainer.
Looking at the big picture, things seem to be a little less clear.

Alternately, on the docket tonight, NYR might be worth a look as well as CGY.
It might be worth a look at those games before placing bets on BOSTON to see if there is better value there. But with all of that said, and everything considered, let’s get to the predictions.

 

Predictions:
BOSTON to win 4-3. (low/high value)
CALGARY to win 4-1. (medium value)
CALGARY goes u5.5. (low value)

 

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