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COL@NSH

Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche 
SIDE :-1202.58
Vs.Date: 2014-03-25
Time: 19:05:00Generated from 24 Previous Games
Nashville Predators
Nashville Predators
O/U :5
1.65 = 4.23

COLORADO brings the most value to the table today but the value is not without cost. There are 2 main problems with calling COL to be any kind of a blowout tonight:

  • COL when playing with 3 or more days rest is 3-5
  • Varlamov is a dismal 88.2% vs NSH this year.
  • COL is 1-4 when priced between -120 and +120 L5G.
  • COL is 1-3 @NSH L3S

So it’s as if there is a certain funk over COL lately and that is always a massive factor in things.

  • Aside from BOSTON blanking them last game, COL has scored 3 or more GF L7G.
  • Varlamov is a respectable 92.3% L4G

There is no Home/Away advantage for either team. Both teams play comparably regardless of where they play.

 

 

PARITY VALUE INDEX

LEAGUE :NHL
DATE :2014-03-25
Teams SU-L3-Record Value Season SU Record Value SU Result OU-L3-Record Value Season OU Record Value OU Result Final Result
W-L % W-L % O-U % O-U %
COL

NSH

0 – 3

2 – 1

100

33.33

44 – 27

31 – 41

38.03

56.94

0.69

0.45

2 – 1

1 – 2

66.67

33.33

36 – 32

28 – 31

52.94

47.46

0.6

0.4

0.5

 

  • PVI is showing COL to have been performing particularly poorly and this should be a cause for some concern.
  • If we’re looking to snipe a pick in COLORADO tonight. If we were betting a negative progression system, then COL would be something to ride.

 

 

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

LEAGUE : NHL

PR :- Power Rating ,W-L :-Win Loss
TeamName Current Season Last 7 Games Last 14 Games
TeamName W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R
COLORADO 44 – 27 61.97 38.03 49.54 0.56 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 44.9 0.44 8 – 6 57.14 42.86 50 0.54
NASHVILLE 31 – 41 43.06 56.94 51.08 0.47 4 – 3 57.14 42.86 46.94 0.52 6 – 8 42.86 57.14 45.92 0.44

 

SOS confirms the PVI that COLORADO is underperforming against  competition that NASHVILLE is excelling against. At this point, we should be considering betting less on COLORADO. This is a threatening possibility that NSH could upset COL here.

With that said, SOS – PVI relationship is not the only contribuing factor and is not a crystal ball, but it is definitely a strong indication of who is more likely to show up at 100%.

 

 

 

BLUE – RED STAR CONSIDERATIONS

Head to Head

When NASHVILLE played as Home Underdog- in the month of March SU 6-20-2

 

Team Trends

When COLORADO team played as a Road team – During the month of March – Last 5 years 25-19-0 13-31-0
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – playing on Tuesday – Last 2 years 6-6-0 3-9-0
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – During the month of March – Last 3 years 17-12-0 8-21-0
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – playing on Tuesday – Last 4 years 13-12-0 7-18-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Western conference opponent – With 3 day off 8-3-0 8-2-1

 

When NASHVILLE team Played as Home team as a Underdog – With 1 day off – During the month of March 10-12-0 6-14-2
When NASHVILLE team Played as Home team as a Underdog – During the month of March – After a conference game 6-8-0 4-9-1
When NASHVILLE team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Last 5 years – Total is 5.0 14-18-0 9-23-0

 

Super Stats

When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – After a non division game – Coming off a 2 goal loss – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog 22-25-1 13-30-5
When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team – Vs Western conference opponent – Last 4 years – Before a conference game – Coming off 1 under – Scored 0 or less goals FOR in their last game 13-16-0 7-22-0
When ANY NHL Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Division Opponent – After a non conference game – playing on Tuesday – Allowed 2 or more goals AGAINST in their last game 15-5-0 16-4-0

 

When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – During the month of March – Total is 5.0 – playing on Tuesday – Scored 2 or more goals FOR in their last game 18-13-2 9-18-6
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – During the month of March – After a conference game – Total is 5.0 – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 5-14-1 3-15-2
When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs Division Opponent – Total is 5.0 – Coming off a 2 goal win – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 6-10-0 5-11-0

 

Smart Stats

When COLORADO played as a road team – During Last 3 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 4 Lost in L7G 15 – 9 – 0 6 – 18 – 0
When COLORADO played as a road team – During Current Season – Lost Last Game by 2 Goals or More 7 – 3 – 0 8 – 2 – 0

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT
COLORADO:

Road Team
(COLORADO)
When COLORADO is a Road Team When Any NHL Team is a Road Team Differential % When COLORADO is a Road Team,the O/U When Any NHL Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 5 5-4-0 171-197-0 51.02 4-4-1 138-130-100 49.26
vs Division opponent 8-4-0 179-196-1 57.14 8-4-0 163-179-34 42.84
vs Conference opponent 3-4-0 133-161-0 44.05 3-3-1 134-130-30 49.62
Playing in the month of March 3-2-0 88-88-1 54.86 3-2-0 81-87-9 45.9
Playing on Tuesday 3-4-0 98-97-1 46.43 3-4-0 82-97-17 55.67
Weekdays game 14-10-0 327-390-2 51.91 11-13-0 308-343-68 53.43
Played as road Favorite 4-2-0 181-112-0 64.22 2-4-0 128-134-31 58.91
After a Non-Division Game 15-11-0 359-387-2 52.84 15-10-1 327-348-73 45.78
After a Non-Conference Game 11-7-0 219-244-1 54.16 12-6-0 204-218-42 42.5
Before a Division Game 4-2-0 78-79-1 58.02 3-3-0 67-82-9 52.52
Before a Conference Game 9-6-0 245-307-2 52.11 10-4-1 249-257-48 39.68
vs Northeast Division Opponent 9-4-0 110-146-1 56.02 8-5-0 116-115-26 44.12
vs Western Conference Opponent 11-8-0 220-287-1 50.6 11-7-1 223-243-42 45.52
Coming off vs Atlantic Division Opponent 8-3-0 132-158-1 59.05 7-4-0 127-135-29 43.95
Coming off vs Eastern Conference Opponent 11-7-0 265-299-1 54.01 12-6-0 248-262-55 42.35
Coming off a 3 losing streak (since 1996) 19-12-3 19-37-0 44.91 15-16-3 23-29-4 53.69
Coming off 1 under 4-5-0 120-140-1 45.21 5-4-0 124-118-19 46.6
Coming off a lost 9-5-0 238-293-1 54.52 9-5-0 233-249-50 43.69
Coming off a Home Lost as a Underdog 2-0-0 32-48-0 70 0-2-0 32-42-6 78.38
With 3 days off 1-1-0 20-20-0 50 1-1-0 17-22-1 53.21
Coming off a 2 goals loss 4-0-0 51-60-1 72.77 3-1-0 47-57-8 39.91
Coming off a score 2 goals AGAINST in last game 5-6-0 120-124-0 47.32 4-6-1 104-116-24 56.37
Before Playing VANCOUVER (last 3 years) 1-4-0 22-17-0 38.21 2-2-1 18-18-3 50
After Playing BOSTON (last 3 years) 2-0-0 13-18-0 70.97 1-1-0 14-13-4 49.08
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 10-4-0 189-233-2 58.01 6-8-0 194-194-36 53.57
vs NASHVILLE (last 3 years) 1-3-0 21-15-0 41.67 2-1-1 12-16-8 45.24
Last 30 days 3-2-0 97-100-1 54.5 3-2-0 91-97-10 45.8
Last 45 days 4-2-0 100-107-1 57.38 4-2-0 96-101-11 42.3
Last 60 days 7-5-0 144-166-1 52.32 7-5-0 139-154-18 47.12
Last 90 days 10-6-0 237-274-2 54.35 10-6-0 235-240-38 44.02

 

NASHVILLE:

Home Team
(NASHVILLE)
When NASHVILLE is a Home Team When Any NHL Team is a Home Team Differential % When NASHVILLE is a Home Team,the O/U When Any NHL Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 5 8-9-0 197-171-0 50.3 5-4-8 138-130-100 46.48
vs Division opponent 5-7-0 196-179-1 46.9 3-6-3 163-179-34 59.51
vs Conference opponent 5-5-0 161-133-0 52.38 4-4-2 134-130-30 49.62
Playing in the month of March 0-5-0 88-88-1 24.86 0-4-1 81-87-9 75.9
Playing on Tuesday 4-3-0 97-98-1 53.32 2-4-1 82-97-17 60.43
Weekdays game 11-10-0 390-327-2 53.31 7-11-3 308-343-68 56.9
Played as home Underdog 6-12-0 113-181-0 35.89 8-7-3 129-134-31 48.81
After a Division Game 7-6-0 236-185-2 54.82 3-4-6 187-191-45 53.84
After a Conference Game 9-11-0 395-327-2 49.78 6-7-7 326-327-71 51.97
Before a Non-Division Game 11-20-0 433-395-2 43.83 10-15-6 379-381-70 55.07
Before a Non-Conference Game 7-12-0 230-226-2 43.53 6-9-4 215-207-36 54.53
vs Northeast Division Opponent 5-7-0 126-120-0 46.45 3-6-3 101-119-26 60.38
vs Western Conference Opponent 10-12-0 266-235-0 49.27 7-10-5 211-238-52 55.92
Coming off vs Northeast Division Opponent 7-6-0 152-122-1 54.56 3-4-6 109-130-36 55.77
Coming off vs Western Conference Opponent 9-11-0 279-213-1 50.8 6-7-7 211-227-55 52.84
Coming off a 2 winning streak 1-3-0 74-50-1 42.1 1-2-1 59-55-11 57.46
Coming off 1 under 6-5-0 154-123-0 55.08 2-4-5 120-128-29 59.14
Coming off a win 5-10-0 277-235-1 43.67 5-7-3 220-250-43 55.76
Coming off a Road Win as a Underdog 2-4-0 74-73-0 41.84 1-3-2 65-72-10 63.78
With 1 days off 9-15-0 337-283-1 45.89 10-10-4 272-286-63 50.63
Coming off a 4 road stand 1-0-0 28-25-0 76.42 0-0-1 23-27-3 27
Coming off a 2 goals win 1-1-0 52-52-0 50 0-1-1 49-48-7 74.74
Coming off a score 2 goals FOR in last game 1-3-0 141-103-0 41.4 2-2-0 122-95-27 46.89
Before Playing BUFFALO (since 1996) 4-5-0 26-11-0 57.36 3-4-2 20-16-1 50.79
After Playing CHICAGO (last 3 years) 5-1-0 21-17-0 69.3 1-5-0 13-18-7 70.7
Coming off 2 conference games 5-5-0 285-224-2 52.89 3-4-3 232-230-49 53.46
vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % 3-7-0 67-94-0 35.81 3-4-3 82-64-15 50.49
vs COLORADO (last 3 years) 3-1-0 13-21-0 56.62 2-1-1 17-16-1 40.91
Last 30 days 1-5-0 100-97-1 33.59 0-5-1 91-97-10 75.8
Last 45 days 1-6-0 107-100-1 32.87 1-5-1 96-101-11 67.3
Last 60 days 2-6-0 166-144-1 39.19 1-5-2 139-154-18 67.95
Last 90 days 7-10-0 274-237-2 47.3 5-9-3 235-240-38 57.41

 

So finally we have something that looks like COLORADO is a definitive favourite.But it’s not at all convincing due to how the teams are currently playing.
With COL not up to parr and NSH overperforming, it’s easy to see why this is priced at even money.

 

Did you know:

  • NSH has scored 1 or less goals in 7 of their last 11 games?

 

Tonight’s Predictions: COLORADO to win 3-2.

 

 

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