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ATS STATS – NBA OVER UNDER and SIDES

Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers 
O/U :225103.5
Vs.Date: 2014-03-28
Time: 19:05:00

Generated from 10 Previous Games

Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
SIDE :11
110.75 = 214.25
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs 
SIDE :8122.67
Vs.Date: 2014-03-28
Time: 20:05:00

Generated from 4 Previous Games

Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets
O/U :215.5
108 = 230.67

 

These 2 games seem to stand out for today’s prediction.

@MIN has 10 games in terms of strength of history, but only has a 10.75 pt spread under the total.
@DEN only has 4  games of history, but the spread is 15.17 points over the total.

 

ATS STATS

LAL@MIN Head to Head O/U/P

When LA LAKERS played as Home or Away Team- With a Spread between 11 and 13.5 9-6-0
When LA LAKERS played as Road Team- Vs MINNESOTA 14-9-2
When MINNESOTA played as Home or Away Team- With a Spread between 11 and 13.5 5-10-0

 

Edge: EVEN

 

LAL@MIN ATS Matchups O/U/P

When LA LAKERS team played as a Road team – Last 4 years – Coming off a Loss over Eastern Central opponent 8-4-0
When MINNESOTA team played as a -9.5 to -12.0 Home Favorite – After a non division game – Scored 105 or more points FOR in their last game 11-3-0
When MINNESOTA team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 3 years – Coming off 1 game home stand 11-6-0
When MINNESOTA team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Pacific opponent – After a non conference game – Coming off 1 under 4-8-0

 

Edge: OVER

 

 

LAL@MIN Team Trends O/U/P

When LA LAKERS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non conference game – During the month of March 7-16-1
When LA LAKERS team played as a Road team – After a non conference game – During the month of March 26-43-3
When LA LAKERS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – playing on Friday – Last 3 years 13-7-1
When MINNESOTA team played as a Home team – Last 3 years – with 1 day off 33-52-0
When MINNESOTA team played as a Home team – During the month of March – playing on Friday 8-12-0
When MINNESOTA team played as a Home team – After a non division game – Total is 220 or more 3-7-0
When MINNESOTA team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Pacific opponent – During the month of March 6-10-1
When MINNESOTA team played as a Home team – Last 3 years – playing on Friday 10-16-0
When MINNESOTA team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 2 years – playing on Friday 5-8-0

 

Very Strong Edge: UNDER

 

 

 

LAL@MIN Super Stats O/U/P

When ANY NBA Team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – Last 3 years – During the month of March – Coming off a 1 game road stand – Scored between 101 – 105 POINTS FOR in their last game 12-8-0
When ANY NBA Team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – Last 4 years – Vs Northwest opponent – Coming off vs Eastern conference opponent – Scored 105 or less points FOR in their last game vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 12-22-0
When ANY NBA Team played as a Road team – During the month of March – After a non conference game – Allowed 106 – 110 AGAINST in their last game – Coming off 1 under 7-13-0
When ANY NBA Team played as a 9.5 to 12 Road Underdog – During the month of March – After a non division game – playing on Friday – Allowed 105 or more points AGAINST in their last game 18-10-0
When ANY NBA Team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – Last 3 years – Vs Northwest opponent – Coming off a 1 game road stand – Scored between 101 – 105 POINTS FOR in their last game – Coming off a 1 game loss 13-8-0
When ANY NBA Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Last 2 years – During the month of March – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a 1 game home stand – Coming off a 1 ATS win 36-22-1
When ANY NBA Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of March – Coming off vs Eastern conference opponent – Coming off a 20 or more point win – Coming off a 1 game win 22-42-1
When ANY NBA Team played as a Home team – During the month of March – After a non division game – Total is 220 or more – Scored 105 or more points FOR in their last game – Coming off a 1 ATS win – Coming off a 1 game home stand 36-55-1
When ANY NBA Team played as a -9.5 to -12.0 Home Favorite – playing on Friday – with 1 day off – During the month of March – Coming off a 1 game home stand 12-6-0

 

Edge: EVEN

 

 

LAL@MIN Smart Stats O/U/P

When LA LAKERS played as a road team – During Last 3 Years – Lost Last Game by 3 Points or More 36 – 22 – 1
When LA LAKERS played as a road team – During Current Season 21 – 14 – 1
When MINNESOTA played as a home team – During Last 5 Years – Won Last Game by 24 Points or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 3 Lost in L5G 2 – 8 – 0

 

Edge: EVEN

All things considered, the UNDER stands slightly better but only by a tiny margin.
In combination with the Forecast, I suppose there could be worse-off bets…but all in all, we’d be paying out vig and that’s about it.

Let’s look at SAS@DEN next…

 

 

SAS@DEN Head to Head O/U/P

When SAN ANTONIO played as Home or Away Team- Vs DENVER 14-26-0
When SAN ANTONIO played as Road Favourite- With a Spread between 4 and 7.5 25-15-0
When SAN ANTONIO played as Home or Away Team- Vs Northwest Division 10-15-0
When DENVER played as Underdog- With a Spread between 4 and 7.5 5-10-0
When DENVER played as Home or Away Team- in the month of March 11-18-1
When DENVER played as Home Team- With Total between 215 and 220 24-11-0
When DENVER played as Home or Away Team- Vs SAN ANTONIO 8-12-0

 

Strong Edge: UNDER

 

 

SAS@DEN ATS Matchups O/U/P

When SAN ANTONIO team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Last 4 years – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Scored 105 or more points FOR in their last game 3-8-0
When SAN ANTONIO team played as a Road team – During the month of March – with 1 day off – Coming off 1 ATS lost 11-6-1
When SAN ANTONIO team played as a Road team – During the month of March – Last 3 years – Coming off vs Western conference opponent 10-6-0
When SAN ANTONIO team played as a 6.5 to 9 Road Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Last 4 years – Allowed 105 or less points AGAINST in their last game 2-9-0
When DENVER team played as a Home team – playing on Friday – After a non division game – Coming off vs Western conference opponent – Coming off 1 ATS win 9-14-0

 

Edge: UNDER

 

 

SAS@DEN Team Trends O/U/P

When SAN ANTONIO team played as a 6.5 to 9 Road Favorite – After a conference game – Last 5 years 5-12-1
When SAN ANTONIO team Played as Road team as a Favorite – playing on Friday – Last 3 years 6-10-0
When SAN ANTONIO team played as a 6.5 to 9 Road Favorite – with 1 day off – Last 3 years 4-8-0
When DENVER team played as a 6.5 to 9 Home Underdog – After a conference game – with 1 day off 4-9-0
When DENVER team played as a Home team – After a conference game – Total is between 215 to 220 18-10-0
When DENVER team played as a Home team – After a non division game – Total is between 215 to 220 18-12-0
When DENVER team played as a Home team – Last 5 years – Total is between 215 to 220 16-9-0

 

Edge: EVEN

 

 

SAS@DEN Super Stats O/U/P

When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – During the month of March – playing on Friday – Coming off a 2 game home stand – Allowed 105 or less points AGAINST in their last game 10-18-0
When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Northwest opponent – After a non division game vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % – Allowed 105 or less points AGAINST in their last game 23-15-2
When ANY NBA Team played as a 6.5 to 9 Road Favorite – Last 5 years – with 1 day off – Coming off a Win over Western Northwest opponent – Allowed 105 or less points AGAINST in their last game 5-16-0
When ANY NBA Team played as a Road team – Vs Northwest opponent – Last 4 years – During the month of March – Coming off a Win over Western Northwest opponent 1-14-1
When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – with 1 day off – playing on Friday – During the month of March – Coming off a 2 game home stand 7-13-0
When ANY NBA Team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Last 3 years – Total is between 215 to 220 – Scored 105 or less points FOR in their last game – Coming off 3 unders – Coming off a Road loss 14-22-2
When ANY NBA Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – playing on Friday – Coming off a 2 game road stand – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off a Road loss 20-12-1
When ANY NBA Team played as a Home team – During the month of March – Last 2 years – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off a 2 game road stand 11-4-0
When ANY NBA Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – During the month of March – Last 2 years – playing on Friday – Scored 105 or less points FOR in their last game 15-23-1
When ANY NBA Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Last 4 years – Total is between 215 to 220 – Scored 105 or less points FOR in their last game 14-8-0

 

Small Edge: UNDER

 

 

SAS@DEN Smart Stats O/U/P

When SAN ANTONIO played as a road team – During Current Season – With SU Record of 3 Win 0 Lost in L3G 6 – 9 – 0
When DENVER played as a home team – During Last 3 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 4 Lost in L7G 4 – 9 – 0
When DENVER played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – With 3 Under or More 14 – 22 – 0

 

Edge: UNDER

 

So the conclusion here would be that LAL@MIN would clearly be the better Totals bet out of the two options.

To make it a little clearer, let’s vet the o225 pick for San Antonio using SOS and some statistics:

SAN ANTONIO 55 – 16 77.46 22.54 49.70 0.64 7 – 0 100 0 30.61 0.65 14 – 0 100 0 39.29 0.70

This shows that SAS is -5 points into a slump from L14G to L7G.
Upon looking at their rebounding numbers, SAS are strong on D.
SAS is OU 2-6 L8G. So their Defense is rock solid making the OVER pick in this position questionable. So where SAS was questionable before, it’s an unacceptable wager now.

Let’s vet MIN and see what we find:

LA LAKERS 24 – 47 33.80 66.20 51.88 0.43 2 – 5 28.57 71.43 59.19 0.44 5 – 9 35.71 64.29 59.18 0.47
MINNESOTA 35 – 35 50.00 50.00 50.83 0.50 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 59.18 0.51 8 – 6 57.14 42.86 50.51 0.54

SOS shows that both these teams are doing what they do right now. They are in a groove and what we see is what we get.

MIN is averaging 109GF and 114GA L5G, and 3 of those they were priced as dogs. It’s safe to say that they’re scoring above average. At the same time, they’ve allowed +120 pts against in 3 of those L5G as well, so to me, this has all of the momentum of an OVER, and not an UNDER. I suppose that it makes sense that the total is set at a whopping 225 points.

LAL is averaging 110GF and 109GA L5G, 4 of those 5 were as the underdogs. So based on these numbers, I think that the setting MIN ATS at a hefty -11 might be liberal, I’d look for LAL to cover tonight if not maybe even win outright.

But if we’re talking about the totals, 225 looks a little tall and I’d think that the UNDER actually does make sense in this spot.

So LAL@MIN u225 is a possible standby, but before we go there, maybe we can find something comparable on the Sides pick…

 

Let’s leave the Totals alone and let’s look at the Sides plays for a moment:

Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics 
O/U :194.595.55
Vs.Date: 2014-03-28
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 48 Previous Games

Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors
SIDE :9.5
99.81 = 195.36

TOR +4.26 (- 9.5) = -5.24 (Edge: BOSTON)

 

Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte Bobcats 
SIDE :4.596.47
Vs.Date: 2014-03-28
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 21 Previous Games

Orlando Magic
Orlando Magic
O/U :192.5
97.62 = 194.09


ORL +1.15 (+4.5) = 5.65 (Edge: ORLANDO)

 

San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs 
SIDE :8122.67
Vs.Date: 2014-03-28
Time: 20:05:00

Generated from 4 Previous Games

Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets
O/U :215.5
108 = 230.67

SAS +14.78 (-8.0) = 6.78 (Edge: SAN ANTONIO)

 

 

 

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Keeping in mind that these numbers reflect these teams’ STRAIGHT UP Wins/Losses…in combination with researching the game totals, we might find more relevance in using it to understand if a team is winning/losing because they are/are not scoring, or if they are winning/losing because they are/are not defending their basket.

Contrasting teams that are in a scoring slump vs teams who are hot because of a strong defense could find an edge betting the TOTALS; likewise, contrasting teams that are hot on the offense that are up against teams that are slumping on defense, could be of benefit.

The best use for SOS in terms of identifying ATS winners/losers will be to contrast teams that are over-performing vs teams that are under-performing.

TeamName Current Season Last 7 Games Last 14 Games
TeamName W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R W-L Win % Loss % SOS % P R
BOSTON 23 – 48 32.39 67.61 49.47 0.41 1 – 6 14.29 85.71 63.26 0.39 4 – 10 28.57 71.43 51.02 0.40
TORONTO 40 – 31 56.34 43.66 49.41 0.53 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 48.98 0.46 8 – 6 57.14 42.86 50.51 0.54

SOS shows TORONTO with the edge, but it also shows TOR has been under-performing lately and so this would be a big mark AGAINST the TOR ATS pick tonight. Considering that BOSTON had the prediction, BOSTON remains a strong consideration for tonight’s Side pick.

Strong Edge: BOSTON

 

CHARLOTTE 35 – 37 48.61 51.39 49.63 0.49 4 – 3 57.14 42.86 44.9 0.51 8 – 6 57.14 42.86 53.06 0.55
ORLANDO 20 – 52 27.78 72.22 48.69 0.38 1 – 6 14.29 85.71 44.9 0.30 3 – 11 21.43 78.57 42.86 0.32

SOS shows CHA with a clear advantage and holding steady…but again…this will be factored into the ATS so there is not too much to discern here in regards to betting ATS.

Edge: EVEN

 

SAN ANTONIO 55 – 16 77.46 22.54 49.70 0.64 7 – 0 100 0 30.61 0.65 14 – 0 100 0 39.29 0.70
DENVER 32 – 40 44.44 55.56 50.91 0.48 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 55.1 0.49 7 – 7 50 50 52.04 0.51

This reads the same as the CHA game. SAS will crush them SU but picking SAS ATS could be shaky.

Edge: EVEN

 

 

 

 

ATS STATS


Head to Head:
When BOSTON played as Road Underdog- With a Spread between 8 and 10.5 26-14-0

When BOSTON played as Road Underdog- With Total between 190 and 195 9-6-0

When BOSTON played as Home or Away Team- Vs TORONTO 20-9-1

 

Edge: BOSTON

 

 

ATS Matchup:
Edge: EVEN

 

 

Team Trends
When BOSTON team played as a 9.5 to 12 Road Underdog – After a conference game – Last 4 years ATS: 8-3-0

When BOSTON team played as a 9.5 to 12 Road Underdog – After a conference game – Last 2 years ATS: 7-3-0

When BOSTON team played as a 9.5 to 12 Road Underdog – playing on Friday – with 1 day off ATS: 6-4-0

When BOSTON team played as a Road team – Vs Atlantic opponent – Total is between 190 to 195 ATS: 16-9-1

 

When TORONTO team played as a Home team – During the month of March – Total is between 190 to 195 ATS: 8-16-0

When TORONTO team played as a Home team – Last 2 years – playing on Friday ATS: 19-12-0

 

Edge: BOSTON

 

 

SUPER STATS
BOSTON:
When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – with 1 day off – Last 3 years – Vs Atlantic opponent – Coming off vs Eastern conference opponent – Scored between 86 – 90 POINTS FOR in their last game ATS:13-6-1

When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – During the month of March – Total is between 190 to 195 – Coming off a 8-11 point loss ATS:16-10-0

When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – with 1 day off – playing on Friday – Coming off a 1 game home stand – Coming off a 8-11 point loss – Scored 90 or less points FOR in their last game ATS:19-11-0

When ANY NBA Team played as a 9.5 to 12 Road Underdog – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog – Scored between 86 – 90 POINTS FOR in their last game – Allowed 95 or more points AGAINST in their last game ATS:17-7-1

When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – with 1 day off – playing on Friday – Total is between 190 to 195 – Coming off a 8-11 point loss – Scored between 86 – 90 POINTS FOR in their last game – Scored 90 or less points FOR in their last game ATS:11-28-2

 

TORONTO:
When ANY NBA Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Atlantic opponent – Last 5 years – playing on Friday – Scored 95 or more points FOR in their last game – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite – Coming off a 1 game win ATS:6-20-1

When ANY NBA Team played as a Home team – Total is between 190 to 195 – Last 4 years – with 1 day off – Coming off a Win over Eastern Atlantic opponent – Coming off a Road win – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite ATS:10-21-1

 

Edge: BOSTON

 

 

SMART STATS

When BOSTON played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – Lost Last Game by 9 Points or Less – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 27 – 18 – 0
When BOSTON Played as road team as a Underdog – During Current Season – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 8 – 3 – 0
When BOSTON played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 6 Lost in L7G 11 – 7 – 0

 

Edge: BOSTON

 

 

  • So BOSTON has the edge in almost all categories as far as ATS is concerned.
  • SOS shows that TOR is under-performing

Based on ATS Stats, it appears the spread might be set a little higher than this matchup deserves and BOSTON could be an excellent wager.

 

Tonight’s Predictions:
BOSTON to cover the spread. (good value)
MINNESOTA to go u225. (very very slight value)

 

 

 

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