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Thursday MLB Double Header

Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins 
O/U :7.53.19
Vs.Date: 2014-04-03
Time: 13:10:00

Generated from 31 Previous Games

Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
SIDE :-138
3.78 = 6.97

Game #1 is MIN@CWS

Spring Training stats would indicate that MIN has the edge here. At even money, this should be a no brainer. (knock on wood)

Here’s how it breaks down:

MIN’s Hughes pitched 4.74ERA across 19 IP in Spring Training.
CWS’s Quintana pitched 16.36ERA across 11 IP in Spring Training.

MIN batting average was 25th in Spring Training with an avg of .242.CWS batting average was 19th in Spring training with an avg of .249.

But despite the deficit in batting, there has been nothing unequal about either of these teams’ bats aside from MINNESOTA coming out far hotter than the stats would predict L3G

Here is the catch. Here is the value:
Hughes hasn’t pitched anything over .200 across 42 at bats vs half of these CWS batters.
Those numbers are effectively elite. That said, 4.74 is mediocre so I wouldn’t expect those numbers at this point today, but at the same time, of the other 29 teams in the league, Hughes will be happiest to see these CWS batters at the plate.

On the other point, Quintana is +.300 .400 .500 across 32 at bats vs MIN batters.
This point compared with Quintana’s rotten Spring Training means that CWS could be giving up 7-8 runs. Add in MIN’s bats L3G and we can see that there MIN is a straight up value shot this afternoon.

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

MINNESOTATeam Name: MINNESOTA(Road Team)
Money Line: MINNESOTA +130 vs CHI WHITE SOX -140
Spread Line: MINNESOTA +1.5 -170 —– CHI WHITE SOX -1.5 +150
O/U: MINNESOTA 7.5 -110 —– CHI WHITE SOX 7.5 -110
Pitchers: MINNESOTA – P Hughes (R) vs CHI WHITE SOX – J Quintana (L)
Game Date: Thursday,April 03 2014 1:10 PM
Last Game: lost 6 – 7 vs Chicago White Sox
Current Game: Chicago White Sox
Next Game: At CLEVELAND
Stats & Trends: MINNESOTA vs. CHI WHITE SOX
PVI Rating on Winning: 0%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 0%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 100%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 48%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 48%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 5.06
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 6.38
CHI WHITE SOXTeam Name: CHI WHITE SOX(Home Team)
Money Line: CHI WHITE SOX -140 vs MINNESOTA +130
Spread Line: CHI WHITE SOX -1.5 +150 —– MINNESOTA +1.5 -170
O/U: CHI WHITE SOX 7.5 -110 —– MINNESOTA 7.5 -110
Pitchers: CHI WHITE SOX – J Quintana (L) vs MINNESOTA – P Hughes (R)
Game Date: Thursday,April 03 2014 1:10 PM
Last Game: win 6 – 7 vs Minnesota Twins
Current Game: Minnesota Twins
Next Game: At KANSAS CITY
Stats & Trends: CHI WHITE SOX vs. MINNESOTA
PVI Rating on Winning: 100%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 0%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 0%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 2 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 41%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 41%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 6.38
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 5.06

 

  • Road Teams % of winning this game: 48%
  • Home Teams % of winning this game: 41%

 

ATSSTATS
ATS Stars has these teams crossed as historically equal in this position.
All things considered, that should play right into our prediction.

 

 

Afternoon MLB Prediction: MINNESOTA to win 7-4. (high value)

 

 

 

 

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 
O/U :7.53.28
Vs.Date: 2014-04-03
Time: 18:10:00

Generated from 62 Previous Games

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
SIDE :-144
4.04 = 7.32

 

Game #2

Spring Training stats would indicate that TBR has the edge here.
Even at TBR’s inflated value, this should be a no-brainer. (knock on wood)

Here’s how it breaks down:

TOR’s Morrow pitched a lackluster 5.74ERA across 15 IP in Spring Training.
TBR’s Archer pitched a walloping 0.90ERA across 10 IP in Spring Training.

TOR’s batting average was 15th in Spring Training with an avg of .252.
TBR’s batting average was 12th in Spring training with an avg of .257.

With that said, when these pitchers face off against each others’ teams…MORROW gets a very small edge, but an edge nonetheless.
That said, Morrow isn’t doing his best work right now and Archer has just pitched the best 10IP of his career coming out  of Spring Training.

 

In this case, TBR has been on and off. 9 runs one game 0 runs the next.
It’s on this point that we should be a little bit nervous with moving ahead with the TBR pick, but let’s see if there are more breadcrumbs that we can follow to a true-north prediction here.

And that’s just to name a few. There are many many many more star crossed historical considerations that give TAMPA BAY a huge edge here as well.

 

But all in all, frankly, we would like to see TBR ML posted at their powerrated odds of -115.
At -140, that really is too much value up in smoke considering TOR’s momentum.

It’s easy to fall in love with a 0.90ERA statistic, but the truth is…I think we should wave off this bet at this price.

 

WHY IS TAMPA BAY PAYING SO LOW??

HANDICAPPING 102

ONTARIO: 12 million people.
FLORIDA: 20 million people

DON’T FORGET TO FACTOR IN THE HOME TEAM WHALE BLUBBER!

Shark:

  • An experienced handicapper that knows where to place his/her bets.
  • Often has inside ties with Vegas.
  • Often has inside knowledge.
  • Often can see things that most casual bettors don’t look at.
  • Uses a calculator and spreadsheet to place bets, track results, and find value

Whale:

  • Someone who is very rich.
  • Someone who has a severe gambling problem.
  • Someone who owns box seats and/ season tickets, and can’t watch a game unless there is 10 large to make it interesting.

 

Sharks bet on value.
Whales bet because it’s their home team.

 

This means that POPULATION has absolutely EVERYTHING to do with things when considering HOME teams vs AWAY teams.

That is why this line is ridiculously inflated to the point that full unit is no longer justified.

 

WITH THAT SAID…

Besides the obvious deficit to the value…here is the REAL lesson we can apply to this logic:

The ML is moving WITH the VISITING UNDERDOG.

So how could that be whale blubber?

  • Whales prefer HOME GAMES.
  • Whales prefer to bet HIGH CHALK and then complain about the upset at the water cooler.

So whatever that 2:1 FLA population is betting, SOMEONE is pounding the TORONTO ML so hard that it’s steaming the line WITH the VISITING UNDERDOGS.

I smell a shark.

If we didn’t have a reason to only bet a half unit before, we DEFINITELY do now.

 

Tonight’s Prediction: TBR to win 4-3. (very low value)

 

 

 

 

 

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