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MIA@WSH

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 
O/U :7.52.73
Vs.Date: 2014-04-10
Time: 15:05:00Generated from 58 Previous Games
Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
SIDE :-220
5.08 = 7.81

 

This is the value shot of the day. This is a tough game to justify as an official prediction, but the value is through the roof. In our opinion, this game is priced completely out of line.

Here’s why:

PITCHING

In for MIAMI today is Koehler.

  • Tom Koehler had an outstanding Spring Training pitching 1.50ERA across 18.0IP but slipped to a still acceptable 3.00ERA in his opener.
  • Koehler doesn’t have a lot of history against WSH batters but the history he does have tracks as follows:
    • 11 at bats were over an average of .300 (across 2 batters)
    • 19 at bats were under an average of .300 (across 6 batters)

 

In for WASHINGTON today is Strasburg.
Steven Strasburg has a track record of excellence and is always a static strength as he is one of only a handful of pitchers that can shut a game down, single-handedly.

  • Strasburg had an outstanding Spring Training pitching 1.83ERA across 19.2IP but Strasburg has slipped to a very questionable 6.10ERA in his first two games across 10IP.
  • Strasburg has a small amount of history against MIA batters. He tracks as follows:
    • 41 at bats were under an average of .300 (across 5 batters) 
    • 43 at bats were over an average of .300 (across 5 batters)

 

Given that Koehler arguably has the better versus record, and given that Strasburg showed up unpolished to 2 games in a row, (by definition, that 6.10ERA can’t be tacked up to a ‘one-off’), for these reasons, as deadly as Strasburg is, and as rarely as we’d consider fading WSH with him on the bump, MIA remains a viable consideration.

 

 

HITTING

  • MIAMI posted 22nd in Spring Training with an average of .257
  • MIAMI posts a blistering 3rd in league with an average of .287
  • WASHINGTON posted 21st in Spring Training with an average of .258
  • WASHINGTON posts 11th in league with an average of .260

 

So again, it’s clear that MIAMI bats are a competent threat that have every opportunity to help  MIAMI win this game.

 

 

BULLPEN

  • The MIAMI bullpen boasts a respectable 2.76ERA across 29.3 IP
    The WSHINGTON bullpen boasts an elite 1.71ERA across 31.7 IP

The edge goes to WASHINGTON, but the edge is very slight.
If WSH manages a lead heading into the back stretch, MIA will have their work cut out for them if they want to come back to win. Even still, at 2.76ERA, the same can be said for WSH.

 

 

HISTORY

  • KOEHLER is 1-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 6.55 and a WHIP of 1.364.
  • STRASBURG is 6-3 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.178.

Historically MIAMI is behind the 8-ball, but with this season so fresh and with these stats set up to favour the Marlins, these historical considerations should be taken in context. These stats could be where all of the value for this matchup is coming from.

 

 

Everything else, all ATS Stats, the Raymond Report, everything, it all points to Washington being the clear favourite, but this is early season MLB and therefore all historical considerations are very tough to justify when both teams are not in a typical position to match their historical contributions.

MIAMI and WASHINGTON Starters, Batters, Bullpens, are performing at a certain level right now, and when we look at this contest through that lens, MIAMI at +200 is a steal and that’s the reason that it made it to Capper’s Corner for analysis. Miami is a good try.

 

Today’s Prediction: MIAMI to win 4-3.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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