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Pittsburgh Pirates (Liriano) vs. Cincinnati Reds (Cueto) – Preview for April 16th, 2014

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds – April 16th, 2014

 

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 
O/U :73.93
Vs.Date: 2014-04-16
Time: 11:35:00Generated from 71 Previous Games
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
SIDE :-115
3.91 = 7.84

 

Today’s early game will be a loose pick, but nonetheless, it’ll be some good value to wet our whistle until tonight’s games arrive in 6 or 7 hours.

Let’s jump into it:

PITCHING

Starting the bump for Pittsburgh today is :

  • Historically, Francisco Liriano hasn’t faced CIN bats enough to establish a baseline, but he’s not proven particularly effective.

On the mound for Cincinnati today is Johnny Cueto:

  • Historically, Johnny Cueto has over 130 at bats vs PIT under a .300 avg (*across 11 batters*)

  • Historically, Cueto has *0* at bats vs PIT batters over a .300 average

 

  • Liriano threw an awesome 2.31ERA in Spring Training (across 11.2IP)
  • Liriano has maintained mediocrity with a 4.00ERA in the Regular Season.
  • Cueto threw a mediocre 4.61ERA in Spring Training (across 13.2IP)
  • Cueto has improved to a whopping 2.14ERA in the Regular Season so far.

 

  • Historically, Liriano is 1-3 vs Cincinnati but with a solid performance of  with an ERA of 3.16 and a WHIP of 1.021.
  • Liriano allowed 4 runs in 6IP in his last outing but marked a respectable 7K.
  • Historically, Cueto is and established 13-5 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 2.51 and a WHIP of 1.049.
  • Cueto allowed 1 run in 7IP in his last outing, but marked only 5K.

 

 

BATTING

  • PIT batted 14th with a .748OPS in Spring Training.
  • CIN batted 8th with a .770OPS in Spring Training.
  • PIT is batting 19th in the league with a .701OPS in the Regular Season so far.
  • CIN is batting 11th in the league with a .724OPS in the Regular Season so far.

 

 

BULLPEN

  • The Pirates have a rock solid 2.60ERA in the pen so far this season.
  • The Reds have a slack 5.18ERA in the pen so far this season.

The Cincinatti bet is losing value because of their questionable capacity to hold a lead, and if Pittsburgh wins this, their pen will be the reason. That said, we like Cincinatti’s bats and we really like Cueto starting on the bump with an elite record, if not the #1 ‘versus record’ in the league, vs Pittsburgh batters.

 

 

ATSSTATS

 

 

 

 

42 – 22 – 1

 

ATSSTATS shows minimal advantages but they all go to Cincinnati.

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

Game Date – 2014-04-16
Road Team :- (3405) PITTSBURGH
Home Team :- (3406 )CINCINNATI

 

PITTSBURGHTeam Name: PITTSBURGH(Road Team)
Money Line: PITTSBURGH +114 vs CINCINNATI -124
Spread Line: PITTSBURGH +1.5 -200 —– CINCINNATI -1.5 +170
O/U: PITTSBURGH 7 +105 —– CINCINNATI 7 -125
Pitchers: PITTSBURGH – F Liriano (L) vs CINCINNATI – J Cueto (R)
Game Date: Wednesday,April 16 2014 11:35 AM
Last Game: lost 5 – 7 vs Cincinnati Reds
Current Game: Cincinnati Reds
Next Game: Vs. MILWAUKEE
Stats & Trends: PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
PVI Rating on Winning: 46.15%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 50%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 57.14%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 40%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 47%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.09
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.31
Road Team
(PITTSBURGH)
When PITTSBURGH is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When PITTSBURGH is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 1-1 19-23 47.62 2-0-0 16-20-6 27.78
vs Division opponent 2-6 62-75 35.13 5-3-0 70-62-5 42.24
vs Conference opponent (since 1996) 231-377 22-24 42.91 273-305-30 20-23-3 53.13
Playing in the month of April 2-6 94-114 35.1 5-3-0 99-102-7 44.13
Playing on Wednesday 0-1 17-17 25 1-0-0 14-18-2 28.13
Played as road Underdog 0-5 57-92 19.13 2-3-0 71-73-5 55.35
After a Division Game 2-6 55-66 35.23 5-3-0 63-54-4 41.83
After a Conference Game (since 1996) 230-379 23-25 42.85 272-307-30 19-26-3 55.4
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 2-6 21-21 37.5 5-3-0 17-23-2 47.5
vs NL Conference Opponent 2-6 58-60 37.08 5-3-0 61-51-6 41.52
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 2-6 20-22 36.31 5-3-0 17-21-4 46.38
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 2-6 50-59 35.44 5-3-0 59-43-7 39.83
Coming off 2 over 1-0 15-10 80 1-0-0 15-9-1 18.75
Coming off a lost 1-4 64-71 33.71 3-2-0 58-70-7 47.35
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 0-2 34-34 25 1-1-0 28-36-4 53.13
During a day game 1-1 42-49 48.08 1-1-0 46-44-1 49.45
Coming off a 8 road trip (since 1996) 8-7 0-0 26.67 5-9-1 0-0-0 32.15
Coming off a 2 runs loss 1-1 11-8 53.95 1-1-0 4-15-0 64.48
Coming off a score 5 runs FOR in last game 1-1 5-6 47.73 1-1-0 5-6-0 52.28
Coming off a score 7 runs AGAINST in last game 1-1 11-9 52.5 2-0-0 10-9-1 23.69
vs. opponent with a 31% to 40% winning % 2-2 13-22 43.57 4-0-0 17-18-0 25.72
vs CINCINNATI (since 1996) 64-76 4-4 47.86 68-60-12 4-4-0 48.44
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 1-4 11-12 33.92 3-2-0 8-11-4 48.95
Coming off a night game 1-4 55-60 33.92 3-2-0 52-59-4 46.58
Split 1st 2 games of a series 1-0 17-16 75.76 1-0-0 15-18-0 27.28
Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 1-1 25 1-1-0 25
Last 30 days 2-6 102-122 35.27 5-3-0 107-109-8 43.98
Last 45 days 2-6 102-122 35.27 5-3-0 107-109-8 43.98
Last 60 days 2-6 102-122 35.27 5-3-0 107-109-8 43.98
Last 90 days 2-6 102-122 35.27 5-3-0 107-109-8 43.98
Vs. Right handed pitchers 1-6 76-91 29.9 4-3-0 82-79-6 45.97
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 1-2 76-74 42 2-1-0 73-73-4 41.67
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 1-4 38-48 32.1 3-2-0 37-45-4 47.44
TEAM: PITTSBURGH
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4 4.07
Home Games Avg 3.67 2.5
Road Games Avg 4.25 5.25
Last 3 Games Avg 4.33 6
Last 5 Games Avg 3.4 5
Last 10 Games Avg 3.7 4.9
vs. Division Games Avg 4 4.07
vs. Conference Games Avg 4 4.07
vs. Non Conference Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.33 3.33
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 6 7
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4 3.83
After a Win Games Avg 3.5 4.83
After a Lost Games Avg 4.83 3.5
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.5 5.5
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.75 4.5
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.5 4.5
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 7 1.5
After an Over Games Avg 3.6 5.6
After an Under Games Avg 5.5 4.17
After a Push Games Avg 2 2
4.09 4.31
CINCINNATITeam Name: CINCINNATI(Home Team)
Money Line: CINCINNATI -124 vs PITTSBURGH +114
Spread Line: CINCINNATI -1.5 +170 —– PITTSBURGH +1.5 -200
O/U: CINCINNATI 7 -125 —– PITTSBURGH 7 +105
Pitchers: CINCINNATI – J Cueto (R) vs PITTSBURGH – F Liriano (L)
Game Date: Wednesday,April 16 2014 11:35 AM
Last Game: win 5 – 7 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Current Game: Pittsburgh Pirates
Next Game: At CHICAGO CUBS
Stats & Trends: CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
PVI Rating on Winning: 38.46%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 46.15%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 43.54%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 3 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 50%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 50%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.26
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.89
Home Team
(CINCINNATI)
When CINCINNATI is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When CINCINNATI is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 2-2 20-22 48.81 1-3-0 16-20-6 65.28
vs Division opponent 2-3 64-73 43.36 3-2-0 70-62-5 43.49
vs Conference opponent (since 1996) 304-307 19-27 45.53 291-288-32 20-23-3 51.62
Playing in the month of April 3-4 94-114 44.03 4-3-0 99-102-7 46.81
Playing on Wednesday 1-0 15-19 72.06 0-1-0 14-18-2 78.13
Played as home Favorite 2-2 73-68 50.89 4-0-0 71-65-5 23.9
After a Division Game 2-2 59-70 47.87 2-2-0 63-61-5 49.6
After a Conference Game 0-1 21-29 21 0-1-0 20-27-3 78.73
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 2-3 20-24 42.73 3-2-0 20-21-3 45.61
vs NL Conference Opponent 2-3 55-66 42.73 3-2-0 62-53-6 43.05
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 2-2 17-24 45.73 2-2-0 19-20-2 50.64
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 2-2 51-63 47.37 2-2-0 56-52-6 49.08
Coming off 3 over (since 1996) 38-43 7-7 48.46 44-33-4 6-7-1 48.36
Coming off a win 0-3 39-58 20.11 2-1-0 43-51-3 43.8
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 0-1 25-37 20.16 1-0-0 26-33-3 27.97
During a day game 1-3 45-46 37.23 2-2-0 46-44-1 49.45
Coming off a 5 home stand (since 1996) 29-36 8-6 50.88 28-34-3 8-6-0 48.85
Coming off a 2 runs win (since 1996) 67-62 8-10 48.19 63-60-6 6-12-0 57.73
Coming off a score 7 runs FOR in last game 1-0 7-11 69.45 1-0-0 10-8-0 22.22
Coming off a score 5 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 83-79 6-7 48.69 73-75-14 4-9-0 59.96
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 1-3 28-28 37.5 3-1-0 24-29-3 39.86
vs PITTSBURGH (since 1996) 75-65 5-3 58.04 68-60-12 5-3-0 42.19
Coming off a Win over NL CENTRAL division opponent 0-2 7-12 18.42 1-1-0 8-9-2 51.47
Coming off a night game 1-2 53-68 38.57 2-1-0 57-60-4 42.31
Split 1st 2 games of a series 0-1 12-21 18.18 1-0-0 15-18-0 27.28
Coming off a win in game 2 of a series 0-1 9-20 15.52 1-0-0 12-17-0 29.31
Last 30 days 3-5 102-122 41.52 4-4-0 107-109-8 50.23
Last 45 days 3-5 102-122 41.52 4-4-0 107-109-8 50.23
Last 60 days 3-5 102-122 41.52 4-4-0 107-109-8 50.23
Last 90 days 3-5 102-122 41.52 4-4-0 107-109-8 50.23
Vs. Left handed pitchers 1-2 29-34 39.68 2-1-0 28-34-1 44.09
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 3-3 68-85 47.22 3-3-0 70-78-5 51.35
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 0-2 26-42 19.12 1-1-0 32-34-2 50.76
TEAM: CINCINNATI
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.86 3.57
Home Games Avg 4.25 3.38
Road Games Avg 3.33 3.83
Last 3 Games Avg 8.67 5.33
Last 5 Games Avg 5.4 3.8
Last 10 Games Avg 4.4 3.8
vs. Division Games Avg 4.13 4
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.73 3.91
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4.33 2.33
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.17 3.33
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.4 4.6
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.33 2.33
After a Win Games Avg 4.25 5.25
After a Lost Games Avg 3.75 2.88
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2 3.5
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.5 3.5
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 6.5 7
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4 2.25
After an Over Games Avg 4.67 4
After an Under Games Avg 3.83 3.17
After a Push Games Avg 3 6
4.26 3.89

 

The Raymond Report shows that CIN has a better RF/RA average for today’s matchup.

Again, it’s not a massive advantage but we feel that with the +starter +bats -pen +ATS/RR, all end up to some solid value for the Cincinnati pick at these odds.

The crystal ball hints that Cincinatti takes an early lead but then works to maintain it through the 7th 8th and 9th as their relief has their work cut out for them.

 

 

Today’s Prediction: CINCINNATI to win 5-4.

 

 

 

 

 

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