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Atlanta Braves (Wood) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Burnett) – Preview for April 17th, 2014

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Preview for April 17th, 2014

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves 
SIDE :-138

3.73

Vs.

Date: 2014-04-17
Time: 12:05:00

Generated from 54 Previous Games

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
O/U :7

3.7 = 7.43

 

Today we’re bringing you a double whammy pick for the ATL@PHI contest.
We’ll found a good try for the ML side pick, and we found a good try with the total.
Here they are, hot off the press!

 

PITCHING

Starting the bump for Atlanta today is Alex Wood:

  • Historically, Wood has 9 at bats vs PHI batters under a .300 avg (vs 2 batters)
  • Historically, Wood has 28 at bats vs PHI batters over a .300 avg (vs 6 batters)

Starting on the mound for Philadelphia today is A.J. Burnett:

  • Historically, Burnett has 58 at bats vs ATL batters under a .300 avg (vs 4 batters)
  • Historically, Hughes has 31 at bats vs ATL batters over a .300 avg (vs 6 batters)

 

  • Wood threw a vicious 0.45ERA in Spring Training across an established 20.0IP
  • Wood has maintained his near perfection with a 1.89ERA in the Regular Season.
  • Burnett threw a dismal 6.05ERA in Spring Training across 19.1IP
  • Burnett has since improved to a respectable 3.94ERA in the Regular Season.

 

Did you know:

  • ATLANTA is 25-14 against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons

 

 

Historically, Wood hasn’t faced these Philly batters a whole lot, but what he’s shown seems to be somewhat lacking. With that said, he’s pitching like a man possessed through all of 2014 so far, and that should be accounted for. In our opinion, there is more validity in the idea that he will be looking to vindicate himself, now that he has the tools to do it, rather than the idea that he’ll follow suit with a performance that mirrors his history versus these batters.
Wood allowed 1ER in 5IP in his last outing with a respectable 8 strikeouts.

 

Historically, Burnett has done between fair to good vs these Atlanta batters and with a 3.94ERA, we should expect more of the same.
With that said, Burnett suffered 2ER in only 4.3IP his last outing. Worth noting is that Burnett hasn’t thrown more than 4 strikeouts in any of his 3 starts.

 

 

 

BATTING

  • ATL batted 15th with a .746OPS in Spring Training.
  • PHI batted 30th with a .632OPS in Spring Training.
  • ATL is batting 5th in the league with a .745OPS in the Regular Season so far.
  • PHI is batting 10th in the league with a .737OPS in the Regular Season so far.

 

 

BULLPEN

  • The Braves have a slackish 4.75ERA in the pen so far this season.
  • The Phillies have a rotten 5.53ERA in the pen so far this season.

Considering that both bats are in the top half of the league regarding their .OPS, we feel that although this game may start slow, it will end with fireworks. Both pitchers combined IP work out to an average of only 5.8IP per outing, meaning there will be plenty at bats for these teams to clock the balls and send the total over the total of 7.

Given that ATLANTA has defined the better .OPS and given that the PHILADEPHIA pen is in disarray, a large part of our side pick will stem from this consideration.

Did you know:

  • ATL is over the total 5-1 L6G
  • PHI is over the total 4-2 L6G

 

 

ATS STATS (Totals)

When PHILADELPHIA team played as a home team – During a day game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 O/U/P 46-29-0
When PHILADELPHIA team played as a home team – Total is 7.5 – During a day game O/U/P 21-12-0
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as home team as a Underdog – Total is 7.5 – Vs Division Opponent O/U/P 8-2-0
When ATLANTA team Played as road team as a Favorite – Total is 7.5 – During a day game O/U/P 22-12-0
When ATLANTA team played as a road team – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – During a day game O/U/P 71-45-4
When ATLANTA team played as a road team – Total is 7.5 – During a day game O/U/P 36-18-0
When ATLANTA team Played as road team as a Favorite – During a day game – Total is 7.5 O/U/P 22-12-0
When PHILADELPHIA played as Underdog- in the month of April O/U/P 26-13-13
When PHILADELPHIA team played as a Home team – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 run lost – Coming off a Home loss O/U/P 10-4-0
When PHILADELPHIA team played as a Home team – 4th game of a series – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite – Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series O/U/P 10-4-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team – After a division game – Playing on Thursday – During a day game – Coming off a night game – Coming off a 3 Game Road Trip O/U/P 16-7-2
When PHILADELPHIA Played as home team as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – With 2 Under or Less O/U/P 15 – 6 – 0

 

ATS STATS (Sides)

 

 

ATS STATS makes a fairly clear case for the OVER and it makes a crystal clear case for ATLANTA to win in this position.

So considering that the ATS historical considerations lead to an ATL and an o7.0 pick…
And considering that the practical stats seems to also echo a comparable narrative…

It looks like the case for ATL and o7.0 is taking form.

Let’s take one final look at the Raymond Report as well:

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB
Game Date – 2014-04-17
Road Team :- (3005) ATLANTA
Home Team :- (3006 )PHILADELPHIA

 

ATLANTATeam Name: ATLANTA(Road Team)
Money Line: ATLANTA -120 vs PHILADELPHIA +110
Spread Line: ATLANTA -1.5 +140 —– PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -160
O/U: ATLANTA 7.5 -105 —– PHILADELPHIA 7.5 -115
Pitchers: ATLANTA – A Wood (L) vs PHILADELPHIA – A J Burnett (R)
Game Date: Thursday,April 17 2014 12:05 PM
Last Game: win 1 – 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies
Current Game: Philadelphia Phillies
Next Game: At NY METS
Stats & Trends: ATLANTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
PVI Rating on Winning: 71.43%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 53.85%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 51.02%
Streaks: 5 SU Win – 1 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 56%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 44%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.03
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 1.94
Road Team
(ATLANTA)
When ATLANTA is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When ATLANTA is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 1-0 28-23 77.45 0-1-0 36-15-0 64.71
vs Division opponent 4-2 65-83 55.3 2-4-0 72-71-5 58.16
vs Conference opponent 2-1 24-25 57.83 0-3-0 21-25-3 77.18
Playing in the month of April 6-2 100-123 59.92 2-6-0 103-113-7 63.66
Playing on Thursday (since 1996) 86-58 13-8 60.81 64-73-7 13-8-0 45.69
Played as road Favorite 1-2 47-32 46.41 1-2-0 38-38-3 58.34
After a Division Game 3-2 58-74 51.97 2-3-0 65-63-4 54.61
After a Conference Game 2-0 25-26 74.51 0-2-0 20-28-3 79.17
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 4-2 17-24 54.07 2-4-0 23-15-3 53.07
vs NL Conference Opponent 6-3 62-64 57.94 2-7-0 63-57-6 62.64
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 3-2 15-22 50.27 2-3-0 23-12-2 47.15
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 6-2 54-63 60.58 2-6-0 61-49-7 59.78
Coming off 2 under 1-0 18-12 80 0-1-0 12-18-0 80
Coming off a win 4-2 40-55 54.39 2-4-0 51-43-1 56.21
Coming off a Road Win as a Underdog 3-1 21-25 60.33 1-3-0 21-24-1 64.17
During a day game 2-2 43-52 47.63 0-4-0 46-48-1 75.53
Coming off a 3 road trip (since 1996) 4-4 0-5 25 5-2-1 2-3-0 44.29
Coming off a 1 runs win 2-0 7-16 65.22 1-1-0 15-8-0 42.39
Coming off a score 1 runs FOR in last game 1-0 9-16 68 0-1-0 11-13-1 77.09
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 3-1 33-42 59.5 1-3-0 32-42-1 65.88
vs PHILADELPHIA (since 1996) 77-70 5-5 51.19 53-81-13 6-4-0 50.23
Coming off a Win over NL EAST division opponent 2-2 6-8 46.43 2-2-0 10-4-0 39.29
Coming off a night game 2-2 61-69 48.46 0-4-0 56-70-4 77.78
Coming off a series win (since 1996) 115-102 3-3 51.5 102-103-12 4-1-1 35.12
Coming off back to back Shutouts deffence (since 1996) 6-4 3-2 60 5-5-0 3-2-0 45
Last 30 days 6-3 108-131 55.93 2-7-0 111-120-8 64.87
Last 45 days 6-3 108-131 55.93 2-7-0 111-120-8 64.87
Last 60 days 6-3 108-131 55.93 2-7-0 111-120-8 64.87
Last 90 days 6-3 108-131 55.93 2-7-0 111-120-8 64.87
Vs. Right handed pitchers 5-2 79-99 57.91 2-5-0 83-89-6 61.59
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 1-0 19-39 66.38 0-1-0 27-28-3 75.46
Coming off win vs. Left handed pitcher 1-0 7-16 65.22 1-0-0 16-7-0 15.22
TEAM: ATLANTA
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.11 2.17
Home Games Avg 3.44 2.67
Road Games Avg 2.78 1.67
Last 3 Games Avg 3.33 2
Last 5 Games Avg 5.2 2.2
Last 10 Games Avg 4.1 2.6
vs. Division Games Avg 3.33 2.33
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.11 2.17
vs. Non Conference Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 4.22 2.22
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 1.33 2.17
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.33 2
After a Win Games Avg 3.89 1.78
After a Lost Games Avg 1.25 1.5
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2 1
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 2.5 3
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 6.25 2.75
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 0 0
After an Over Games Avg 4.33 2.17
After an Under Games Avg 3 2.4
After a Push Games Avg 0 0
3.03 1.94
PHILADELPHIATeam Name: PHILADELPHIA(Home Team)
Money Line: PHILADELPHIA +110 vs ATLANTA -120
Spread Line: PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -160 —– ATLANTA -1.5 +140
O/U: PHILADELPHIA 7.5 -115 —– ATLANTA 7.5 -105
Pitchers: PHILADELPHIA – A J Burnett (R) vs ATLANTA – A Wood (L)
Game Date: Thursday,April 17 2014 12:05 PM
Last Game: lost 1 – 0 vs Atlanta Braves
Current Game: Atlanta Braves
Next Game: At COLORADO
Stats & Trends: PHILADELPHIA vs. ATLANTA
PVI Rating on Winning: 42.86%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 42.86%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 51.02%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 43%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 43%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.64
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.13
Home Team
(PHILADELPHIA)
When PHILADELPHIA is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When PHILADELPHIA is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 0-1 20-31 19.61 1-0-0 36-15-0 14.71
vs Division opponent 3-3 71-77 48.99 3-3-0 72-71-5 49.83
vs Conference opponent 0-4 19-30 19.39 3-1-0 21-25-3 39.68
Playing in the month of April 3-7 101-122 37.65 6-4-0 103-113-7 46.16
Playing on Thursday 0-1 6-15 14.29 1-0-0 13-8-0 19.05
Played as home Underdog 1-4 29-58 26.67 4-1-0 38-46-3 37.38
After a Division Game 2-3 66-74 43.57 2-3-0 65-70-5 55.93
After a Conference Game 0-4 21-32 19.81 3-1-0 21-29-3 41.5
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 3-3 18-24 46.43 3-3-0 21-19-2 48.75
vs NL Conference Opponent 3-7 59-69 38.05 6-4-0 63-59-6 44.18
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 2-3 18-22 42.5 2-3-0 18-19-3 55.68
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 3-7 55-66 37.73 6-4-0 57-58-6 45.22
Coming off 2 under (since 1996) 93-75 9-16 45.68 81-74-13 10-15-0 53.87
Coming off a lost 1-6 68-70 31.79 4-3-0 66-67-5 46.62
Coming off a Home Lost as a Favorite 1-1 28-26 50.93 1-1-0 25-27-2 50.96
During a day game 1-2 48-47 41.93 1-2-0 46-48-1 58.87
Coming off a 10 home stand (since 1996) 4-1 0-0 40 4-1-0 0-0-0 10
Coming off a 1 runs loss (since 1996) 95-75 14-8 59.76 94-70-6 14-8-0 39.52
Coming off a score 1 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 77-49 10-11 54.37 54-62-10 10-10-1 51.73
vs. opponent with a 71% to 80% winning % 0-2 8-8 25 2-0-0 9-7-0 21.88
vs ATLANTA (since 1996) 69-78 2-7 34.58 53-81-13 2-7-0 69.12
Coming off a Lost over NL EAST division opponent 0-2 9-15 18.75 0-2-0 9-12-3 78.57
Coming off a night game 3-3 60-76 47.06 3-3-0 61-71-4 51.9
Coming off a series loss 1-0 16-12 78.57 1-0-0 18-9-1 16.67
Coming off back to back Shutouts offense (since 1996) 3-1 4-9 52.89 1-2-1 4-9-0 67.95
Last 30 days 3-7 109-130 37.81 6-4-0 111-120-8 45.98
Last 45 days 3-7 109-130 37.81 6-4-0 111-120-8 45.98
Last 60 days 3-7 109-130 37.81 6-4-0 111-120-8 45.98
Last 90 days 3-7 109-130 37.81 6-4-0 111-120-8 45.98
Vs. Left handed pitchers (since 1996) 204-177 33-35 51.04 180-187-14 29-38-1 53.84
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 3-4 73-91 43.69 5-2-0 74-85-5 41.02
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 1-6 40-53 28.65 4-3-0 43-48-2 47.81
TEAM: PHILADELPHIA
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.88 4.5
Home Games Avg 3.1 4.5
Road Games Avg 5.17 4.5
Last 3 Games Avg 2 3.33
Last 5 Games Avg 3 3.4
Last 10 Games Avg 3.1 4.5
vs. Division Games Avg 3.5 3.33
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.31 4.23
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 6.33 5.67
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.29 5
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 5 3.33
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 5.17 4.5
After a Win Games Avg 3.67 4.5
After a Lost Games Avg 3.14 3.43
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.33 3.67
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.33 2
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 5 5.33
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3 4.5
After an Over Games Avg 2.88 3.5
After an Under Games Avg 3.57 4.86
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
3.64 4.13

 

The RR pretty much justifies everything that’s going on as well so we should be comfortable enough to go ahead with our picks for today. It should be noted that there have been far better cases made, but the question is not “will this be the best bet we’ve ever made,” it’s simply, “does this bet have justified value.”

 

 

Today’s Prediction: ATLANTA to win 6-3 with the total going OVER 7.0

 

 

 

 

 

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