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Baltimore Orioles (Gonzalez) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Dickey) – Preview April 22nd, 2014

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Preview April 22nd, 2014

Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles 
O/U :9

5.04

Vs.

Date: 2014-04-22
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 69 Previous Games

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
SIDE :-127

5.13 = 10.17

 

Tough board today, but we think we found some value with Baltimore here today.

Here is how we figure:

 

PITCHING

Starting the bump for Baltimore today is Miguel Gonzalez:

  • Historically, Gonzalez has 0 at bats vs TOR batters OVER a .300 avg (0/8 batters)
  • Historically, Gonzalez has 77 at bats vs TOR batters UNDER a .300 avg (8/8 batters)

 

Starting on the mound for Toronto today is R.A. Dickey:

  • Historically, Dickey has 27 at bats vs TOR batters OVER a .300 avg (5/11 batters)
  • Historically, Dickey has 67 at bats vs TOR batters UNDER a .300 avg (6/11 batters)

 

  • Gonzalez threw an average  3.54ERA in Spring Training across 20.1IP
  • Gonzalez has slipped to a 6.28ERA in the Regular Season.
  • Dickey threw a rotten 5.79ERA in Spring Training across 18.1IP
  • Dickey has improved to a reasonable 6.26ERA in the Regular Season.
  • GONZALEZ is 4-2 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 3.02 and a WHIP of 0.963
  • DICKEY is 2-3 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 4.34 and a WHIP of 1.196

In his last outing, Gonzalez threw 5IP giving up 0ER vs 15th place Tampa bats (OSP). Remarkably he achieved a season high amount of strike-outs marking 6K.
Gonzalez has only marked 10K across 14.1IP this season.

In his last outing, Dickey threw 4.3IP giving up a questionable 5ER vs 9th place Minnesota bats (OSP). Dickey’s knuckleball makes him a solid Ground-Out pitcher and therefore depends on the infield. This will allow Toronto to get out from tight spots with infield double-plays, but with Dickey not throwing his stuff, what would normally be double-plays could turn into plural line drives straight back up the middle.
Dickey has only marked 10K across 14IP this season.

 

Did you know:

  • BALTIMORE is 22-18 against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
  • TORONTO is 11-8 against BALTIMORE @TOR over the last 3 seasons

 

 

BATTING

  • BAL batted 11th with a .763OPS in Spring Training.
  • TOR batted 12th with a .763OPS in Spring Training.
  • BAL is batting 17nd in the league with a .701OPS in the Regular Season so far.
    BAL is averaging 5.6 runs on the road this season.
  • TOR is batting 20th in the league with a .688OPS in the Regular Season so far.
    TOR is averaging 4.5 runs at home this season.

These are a couple teams with equally competent bats so it’s all up to the pitching.

 

BULLPEN

  • The Orioles have a respectable 3.09ERA in the pen so far this season.
  • The Jays have a respectable 3.90ERA in the pen so far this season.

Considering their advantage in the Pen, and considering Dickey’s issues of late, BAL should have chances to win through all 9 innings.

 

 

ATSSTATS

ATSSTATS (Super Stats) historically has TORONTO to win in this position, but in the other 4 categories, these teams come up perfectly equal. As much as we hate to look past ATSSTATS, today, it looks like that’s where the value is.

 

 

Today’s Prediction: BALTIMORE to win 7-4.

 

 

 

 

 

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