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Arizona Diamondbacks (Miley) vs. Chicago Cubs (Samardzija) – Preview for April 23rd, 2014

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs

Preview for April 23rd, 2014

Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 
O/U :6.5

4.25

Vs.

Date: 2014-04-23
Time: 13:20:00

Generated from 9 Previous Games

Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
SIDE :-127

2.25 = 6.5

 

Today’s early bird Pick ‘Em is a no brainer. We found an interesting angle on the Cubs pick that can’t go without mention.

Besides ERA, there are different styles of pitching. Each pitcher has certain pitches in their wheelhouse that they use as their ‘go-to’ pitch. Different pitches have different effects.

Throwing fastballs low in the zone will sometimes cause the bat to “top the ball” meaning ground play ground-outs are likely; likewise, throwing up in the zone can cause frequent pop-fly air-outs.

Throwing fast heaters can cause a late swing, directing the ball down the 1st base line.
Throwing the slow changeup can cause an early swing, directing the ball down the 2nd base line.

In my opinion, the best GO pitchers in the game are the most deadliest because pitchers that master the art of using their infield have a vicious advantage. It means that all batters do when they hit singles, is they set up the double play for the next at bat. This means that pound for pound, with a runner on 1st base, with one pitch, a good GO pitcher can cause 2 outs, with no runners on, where an AO pitcher will either still have a runner on first, or even in some cases, a runner that’s advanced to 2nd base, with only 1 out.

With that said, it looks as if AO pitchers have a more forgiving time at the plate than GO pitchers as their .avg seems to be a little bit lower across comparable ERA. In other words, GO pitchers get the double-play advantage, but at the same time, if they’re not on their game, GO turn into line-drives and there will be more runners on as a result. When an AO pitcher isn’t on his game, the difference can simply be that the outfielder catches a popup at 250ft instead of only 200ft, with the same result.

In this series against Arizona, Chicago has earned 8 hits off Arroyo and 7 hits off McCarthy.

Arroyo is a 1.65GO/AO pitcher.
McCarthy is a 1.76GO/AO pitcher.

Chicago is swinging well against GO pitchers at the moment.

Miley is a 1.48GO/AO pitcher < – – – Today’s Pitcher.

Given today’s pitcher, Miley, is also a GO pitcher, it stands to reason that CHC should see more of the same type of hitting.

 

Pitching:
ARI: 4.35ERA All Season, 3.79ERA Last 3 Starts.
CHC: 1.29ERA All Season, 1.71ERA Last 3 Starts.

Batting:

  • ARI: 3.5 Runs Average, 3.6 @Away, 3.6 vs Righties
  • CHC: 3.8 Runs Average, 4.7 @Home, 3.6 vs Lefties

 
Bullpen:

  • ARI: 3.57 All Games, 3.33 Road Games.
  • CHC: 4.03 All Games, 5.12 Home Games.

 
Historical Consideration:

  • CHICAGO CUBS is 6-2 against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons, when playing @CHI.

Historical Pitching:

  • MILEY is 2-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.57 and a WHIP of 0.926.
  • SAMARDZIJA is 0-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 5.82 and a WHIP of 1.824.

 

 

So historically Miley has done better than Samardzija, but at the end of the day, Samardzija is throwing his stuff lately, and Miley doesn’t seem to be.

 

ATSSTATS

 

So we have at least some ATSStats support on the Cubs pick.

 

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB
Game Date – 2014-04-23
Road Team :- (3007) ARIZONA
Home Team :- (3008 )CHICAGO CUBS

 

ARIZONATeam Name: ARIZONA(Road Team)
Money Line: ARIZONA +105 vs CHICAGO CUBS -115
Spread Line: ARIZONA —– CHICAGO CUBS
O/U: ARIZONA —– CHICAGO CUBS
Pitchers: ARIZONA – W Miley (L) vs CHICAGO CUBS – J Samardzija (R)
Game Date: Wednesday,April 23 2014 1:20 PM
Last Game: lost 2 – 9 vs Chicago Cubs
Current Game: Chicago Cubs
Next Game: At CHICAGO CUBS
Stats & Trends: ARIZONA vs. CHICAGO CUBS
PVI Rating on Winning: 21.74%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 36.36%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 46.94%
Streaks: 4 SU Lost – 1 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 41%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 47%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.1
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 5.91
Road Team
(ARIZONA)
When ARIZONA is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When ARIZONA is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
vs Non-Division opponent 0-2 60-76 22.06 1-1-0 53-76-7 54.46
vs Conference opponent 0-2 36-41 23.38 1-1-0 31-40-6 53.17
Playing in the month of April 4-7 140-179 40.13 7-4-0 141-164-14 45.07
Playing on Wednesday 1-0 23-28 72.55 1-0-0 18-31-2 31.64
Played as road Underdog 4-7 91-141 37.79 7-4-0 101-120-11 45.33
After a Non-Division Game 1-1 61-74 47.6 1-1-0 49-79-7 55.86
After a Conference Game 0-2 38-44 23.17 1-1-0 31-44-7 54.34
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 4-5 30-25 49.5 6-3-0 25-27-3 42.63
vs NL Conference Opponent 4-7 85-93 42.06 7-4-0 77-89-12 44.99
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 0-1 31-28 26.27 1-0-0 27-28-4 25.46
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 4-7 77-88 41.52 7-4-0 75-79-11 43.83
Coming off a 4 losing streak 1-0 4-3 78.57 0-1-0 3-4-0 78.57
Coming off 1 over 1-2 29-40 37.68 2-1-0 32-31-6 41.27
Coming off a lost 3-5 93-112 41.44 4-4-0 80-113-12 54.28
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 2-3 51-66 41.8 3-2-0 42-69-6 51.08
During a day game 1-3 55-72 34.16 2-2-0 56-67-4 52.24
Coming off a 5 road trip 1-0 10-6 81.25 1-0-0 7-9-0 28.13
Coming off a 7 runs loss (since 1996) 6-19 3-3 37 9-15-1 2-4-0 64.59
Coming off a score 2 runs FOR in last game 1-1 18-20 48.69 1-1-0 18-19-1 50.68
Coming off a score 9 runs AGAINST in last game 1-0 4-3 78.57 0-1-0 3-3-1 75
vs. opponent with a 31% to 40% winning % 0-2 19-29 19.79 2-0-0 24-23-1 24.47
vs CHICAGO CUBS (since 1996) 27-31 6-5 50.55 28-29-1 7-4-0 43.62
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 0-1 16-14 26.67 1-0-0 12-14-4 26.93
Coming off a game that went over 1-2 29-40 37.68 2-1-0 32-31-6 41.27
Coming off a night game 2-3 86-101 43 3-2-0 77-102-8 48.49
Lost 1st two games of a series 1-0 18-7 86 0-1-0 9-15-1 81.25
Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 1-1 25 0-2-0 50
Last 30 days 4-7 146-187 40.1 7-4-0 148-170-15 44.91
Last 45 days 4-7 148-187 40.27 7-4-0 149-171-15 44.9
Last 60 days 4-7 148-187 40.27 7-4-0 149-171-15 44.9
Last 90 days 4-7 148-187 40.27 7-4-0 149-171-15 44.9
Vs. Right handed pitchers 3-5 105-138 40.36 6-2-0 110-123-10 38.9
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 3-6 110-123 40.27 6-3-0 101-121-11 43.92
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 2-4 61-73 39.43 3-3-0 51-79-4 55.39
TEAM: ARIZONA
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.52 6.22
Home Games Avg 3.33 6.33
Road Games Avg 3.73 6.09
Last 3 Games Avg 1.33 6
Last 5 Games Avg 2.8 5.6
Last 10 Games Avg 3 6.5
vs. Division Games Avg 4.06 6
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.52 6.22
vs. Non Conference Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.55 6.36
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.86 5.43
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 1.6 7
After a Win Games Avg 3 5.6
After a Lost Games Avg 3.59 6.35
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.75 6.5
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.33 5.5
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 0 2
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.73 6.82
After an Over Games Avg 3.08 5.77
After an Under Games Avg 4.25 7
After a Push Games Avg 2 5
3.1 5.91
CHICAGO CUBSTeam Name: CHICAGO CUBS(Home Team)
Money Line: CHICAGO CUBS -115 vs ARIZONA +105
Spread Line: CHICAGO CUBS —– ARIZONA
O/U: CHICAGO CUBS —– ARIZONA
Pitchers: CHICAGO CUBS – J Samardzija (R) vs ARIZONA – W Miley (L)
Game Date: Wednesday,April 23 2014 1:20 PM
Last Game: win 2 – 9 vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Current Game: Arizona Diamondbacks
Next Game: Vs. ARIZONA
Stats & Trends: CHICAGO CUBS vs. ARIZONA
PVI Rating on Winning: 36.84%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 44.44%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 55.1%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 1 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 46%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 46%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.74
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.11
Home Team
(CHICAGO CUBS)
When CHICAGO CUBS is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When CHICAGO CUBS is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
vs Non-Division opponent 3-2 61-75 52.43 2-3-0 53-76-7 59.46
vs Conference opponent 3-2 34-43 52.08 2-3-0 31-40-6 58.17
Playing in the month of April 5-6 147-172 45.77 7-4-0 141-164-14 45.07
Playing on Wednesday 1-0 23-28 72.55 1-0-0 18-31-2 31.64
Played as home Favorite 2-2 115-105 51.14 1-3-0 101-108-11 63.34
After a Non-Division Game 2-3 53-72 41.2 3-2-0 49-72-4 49.75
After a Conference Game 3-2 38-47 52.36 2-3-0 33-45-7 58.85
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 2-0 28-26 75.93 1-1-0 24-28-2 51.93
vs NL Conference Opponent 5-6 84-97 45.93 7-4-0 77-93-11 45.54
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent 1-0 25-28 73.59 1-0-0 23-27-3 27
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 5-5 81-96 47.88 7-3-0 72-93-12 43.18
Coming off a 2 winning streak (since 1996) 82-94 10-34 34.66 81-89-6 19-23-2 53.56
Coming off 1 over 0-2 35-38 23.98 2-0-0 33-34-6 25.38
Coming off a win 1-4 58-86 30.14 4-1-0 61-76-7 37.74
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 1-0 40-53 71.51 1-0-0 38-50-5 28.41
During a day game 2-5 64-63 39.48 4-3-0 56-67-4 48.67
Coming off a 5 home stand 0-1 12-7 31.58 1-0-0 9-10-0 26.32
Coming off a 7 runs win (since 1996) 19-16 2-3 47.15 10-23-2 2-3-0 64.85
Coming off a score 9 runs FOR in last game (since 1996) 32-17 2-3 52.66 23-23-3 2-3-0 55
Coming off a score 2 runs AGAINST in last game 1-1 20-23 48.26 1-1-0 14-28-1 58.34
vs. opponent with a 21% to 30% winning % 2-0 12-11 76.09 1-1-0 10-13-0 53.26
vs ARIZONA (since 1996) 31-27 7-4 58.55 28-29-1 7-4-0 43.62
Coming off a Win over NL WEST division opponent 1-0 13-19 70.32 1-0-0 7-22-3 37.93
Coming off a game that went over 0-2 35-38 23.98 2-0-0 33-34-6 25.38
Coming off a night game 2-1 89-109 55.81 3-0-0 84-105-9 27.78
Wins 1st two games of a series (since 1996) 43-41 6-19 37.6 38-44-2 9-15-1 58.08
Coming off a win in game 2 of a series 0-2 15-28 17.44 2-0-0 19-22-2 26.83
Last 30 days 5-6 155-178 46 7-4-0 148-170-15 44.91
Last 45 days 5-6 155-180 45.86 7-4-0 149-171-15 44.9
Last 60 days 5-6 155-180 45.86 7-4-0 149-171-15 44.9
Last 90 days 5-6 155-180 45.86 7-4-0 149-171-15 44.9
Vs. Left handed pitchers 2-1 44-50 56.74 2-1-0 35-56-3 47.44
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 4-3 103-125 51.16 6-1-0 100-121-7 34.52
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 1-1 42-61 45.39 2-0-0 47-50-6 25.78
TEAM: CHICAGO CUBS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.6 3.95
Home Games Avg 4.73 4.36
Road Games Avg 2.22 3.44
Last 3 Games Avg 5.33 3.67
Last 5 Games Avg 5 3.8
Last 10 Games Avg 3.3 4
vs. Division Games Avg 4 4.92
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.24 4.35
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 0 1.67
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 4.17 5.83
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2.56 3.22
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.8 3
After a Win Games Avg 4.5 6.5
After a Lost Games Avg 3.75 3.08
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3 8.5
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 1.83 3.17
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 5.25 5.5
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 5.67 3
After an Over Games Avg 4.22 5
After an Under Games Avg 3.44 3.44
After a Push Games Avg 3 2
3.74 4.11

 

Raymond Report is giving at least equal chances to win, if not a small edge for Chicago.

All things look like a go and let’s hope that our angle makes the difference!

 

 

Today’s Prediction: CHICAGO to win 7-4.

 

 

 

 

 

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