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Philadelphia Phillies (Kendrick) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Haren) – Preview April 24th, 2014

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Preview April 24th, 2014

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 
O/U :73.22
Vs.Date: 2014-04-24
Time: 21:10:00

Generated from 24 Previous Games

Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
SIDE :-166
4.41 = 7.63

We’re happy to bring you PHI@LAD because this one promises to raise the roof and be an exciting game; as well, we’ve chosen some chalk to help put us back on a winning track.

PITCHING

Starting the bump for Philly today is Kyle Kendrick:

  • Historically, Kendrick has 26 at bats vs LAD batters OVER a .300 avg (5/9 batters)
  • Historically, Kendrick has 48 at bats vs TOR batters UNDER a .300 avg (4/9 batters)

 

Starting on the mound for Los Angeles today is Dan Haren:

  • Historically, Haren has 47 at bats vs PHI batters OVER a .300 avg (6/13 batters)
  • Historically, Haren has 56 at bats vs TOR batters UNDER a .300 avg (7/13 batters)

So historically speaking, we can say that Kendrick holds a very slight edge here, but objectively speaking the difference is negligible and their chances will depend on how they do here tonight, more than anything.

 

  • Kendrick is throwing a respectable 3.60ERA
  • Haren is throwing an elite 2.16ERA

Kendrick has thrown better on the road, but Haren has thrown better at home as well; besides, it’s hard to improve on a 2.16ERA!

  • Kendrick allowed 3ER across 7IP vs #1 COL (.OPS) in his last outing.
    He has struck out 3 or less batters in 2 of his last 3 outings.
  • Haren allowed only 1ER across 7.3IP vs #26 ARI (.OPS) in his last outing.
    He has struck out 5 or more batters in 2 of his last 3 outings.

 

Traditional versus W/L stats:

  • KENDRICK is 3-6 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 6.89 and a WHIP of 1.660.
  • HAREN is 1-4 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 5.09 and a WHIP of 1.304.

Both of these guys have established concrete loss trends vs each others’ teams. With that said, Kendrick has done particularly poorly over a longer amount of time. And given Haren’s edge in ERA so far this season, we should definitely expect Haren to out-pitch Kendrick.

Bonus Consideration: Haren is a 1.70GO/AO pitcher with a 2.16ERA so far this year.

This means that he has a way of eliciting ground-out double plays where other AO pitchers have to settle for a fly-out and a runner still on base.

Since Haren is throwing his stuff lately, there will be double plays where other GO pitchers would allow line-drive hits.

This means that Philadelphia will have to do far better than getting a runner to first. Philadelphia will need to bat doubles or else they can’t hope to score. Since LAD’s bullpen is rocking an even stronger home ERA than Haren, we shouldn’t expect to see the Phillies mark more than an accidental 1 or 2 runs across all 9.

 

Did you know:

  • LA DODGERS is 11-6 against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons

 

BATTING

  • PHI is batting 19th in the league with a .702OPS in the Regular Season so far.
    PHI is averaging 4.6 runs on the road this season.
    PHI is averaging 4.3 runs vs Righty Starters.
  • LAD is batting 20th in the league with a .700OPS in the Regular Season so far.
    LAD is averaging 3.8 runs at home this season.
    LAD is averaging 4.4 runs vs Righty Starters.

These are a couple teams with equally competent bats so this is basically all up to the pitching and the pen.

 

BULLPEN

  • The Phillies have a porous 5.64ERA in the pen so far this season.
    They are 4.78ERA on the road.
  • The Dodgers have a solid 3.25ERA in the pen so far this season.
    They are an elite 2.14ERA at home.

Considering their advantage in the Pen, and considering Haren’s excellence of late. Considering the equalish bats and considering the historical record, looking at these real-time stats, I’d say that PHI has their work cut out for them and that this is their case to prove. If LAD has a half decent night, we will be bank on this contest.

 

 

ATSSTATS

 

So that’s the case for LAD in a nutshell. Historically sound. Real-Time solid.

Typically we try to find cases that are sound not only in real-time, but also looking back historically with ATS Stats, so that their position to win is good.

In this case we’ve done exactly that.

Usually we hope for even/dog odds, but if we have to chisel at some chalk, then that’s what we’ll do if that’s where the best value lies.

We suggest betting ML and leaving alone ATS betting for reasons that our last 4 days have unveiled regarding the close nature of MLB games when trying to shave value on good odds…but with that said…if we did play ATS, this would a good time for that.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: LOS ANGELES to win 5-2.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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