1-YEAR MEMBERSHIP ONLY $9.99
We accept PayPal or Credit Cards!

Philadelphia Phillies (Lee) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Arroyo) – Preview April 26th, 2014

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 
SIDE :-1434.63
Vs.Date: 2014-04-26
Time: 19:10:00Generated from 18 Previous Games
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U :8.5
5.24 = 9.87

 

The second play today is a hot pick that looks solid. The value is chalk but the the chances to win look like they justify the weak odds.

Let’s look at it:

PITCHING

Starting the bump for Philly today is Cliff Lee:

  • Historically Lee has 12 at bats vs TOR batters OVER a .300 avg (3/8 batters)
  • Historically Lee has 53 at bats vs TOR batters UNDER a .300 avg (5/8 batters)

Starting on the mound for Arizona today is Bronson Arroyo:

  • Historically, Arroyo has 41 at bats vs TOR batters OVER a .300 avg (4/12 batters)
  • Historically, Arroyo has 61 at bats vs TOR batters UNDER a .300 avg (8/11 batters)

 

  • Lee is throwing a strong 3.09ERA
  • Lee is throwing questionable on the road 3.60ERA
  • Lee is throwing 1.57ERA L3G
  • Arroyo is throwing a solid 9.51ERA this season.
  • Arroyo is throwing a flawless 12.92ERA across 6.7IP.
  • Arroyo is 11.20ERA L3G

 

  • Lee threw a mind-boggling 13 Strike-Outs vs ATL on the 16th and then followed up with 10 more Strike-Outs vs LAD on the 21st. Lee is heating up and the days where his name struck fear have apparently returned. I would hate to have to fade him today.
  • Arroyo has been the complete opposite of Lee. Arroyo is arguably the worst pitcher in the league at the moment. Arroyo hasn’t thrown more than 2 Strike-Outs in any of his last 3 outings. He’s been lucky to last 5 innings, and was pulled after 3.3 on the 15th. MAYBE with extremely strong batting he could pick up a win, but at the end of the day, Arizona doesn’t qualify that, and certainly not against Mr. Lee.

 

Did you know:

  • LEE is 4-1 when starting against ARIZONA with a 2.93ERA and a WHIP of 0.930.
  • ARROYO is 4-7 when starting against PHILLY with a 5.23ERA and a WHIP of 1.365.

 

 

BATTING

  • PHI is batting 20th in the league with a .702OPS in the Regular Season so far.
    PHI is averaging 4.7 runs on the road this season.
    PHI is averaging 4.4 vs Righty Starters.
  • ARI is batting 24th in the league with a .663OPS in the Regular Season so far.
    ARI is averaging 3.5 runs at home this season.
    ARI is averaging 3.4 vs Lefty Starters.

There is nothing equal about these bats. Philly has a clear advantage. Could there be a bigger advantage? Definitely. But Philly is definitely still ahead by a solid mark.

 

BULLPEN

  • The Phillies have a dismal 5.46ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen is 4.58ERA on the road.
  • The Diamondbacks have a respectable 3.60ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen is 4.27ERA at home.

So home/away ERAs are almost identical, but these stats indicate that there is a ‘chance-card’ that could play against Philly holding a lead through the last 3 innings. If this game goes wrong, this is the only spot where there should be a hole. Ultimately though, considering the starters and the bats, it’s clear that this shouldn’t play as a game-changing factor.

 

BONUS CONSIDERATION:

Arroyo is a Ground-Out pitcher. Considering that Arizona is 5th in league in errors, in combination with Arroyo’s propensity as a GO pitcher…this could be a complete blowout!
Since most errors happen in the infield…since Arroyo uses more infield than he does his outfield…since Arroyo is not on his game…it’s difficult to see how Arizona could win this contest even if we ran it 10 times.

 

ATS STATS

When PHILADELPHIA played as Favourite- With Total between 8.5 and 9.0: SU 8-2-0

When PHILADELPHIA played as Favourite- Vs NL West Division: SU 51-24-0

When PHILADELPHIA played as Favourite- Vs ARIZONA: SU 29-16-0

When ANY MLB Team played as a -120 to -140 Road Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs NL WEST opponent – Before a conference game – Coming off a 1 run win: SU 23-15-0

When PHILADELPHIA played as any home/road team – During Last 3 Years – With 1 Under or More – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G: SU47 – 28 – 0

 

When ARIZONA played as Home Team- in the month of April: SU 3-11-1

When ARIZONA played as Underdog- Vs NL East Division: SU 10-25-0

When ARIZONA played as Home Underdog- With Total between 8.5 and 9.0: SU 3-7-0

When ANY MLB Team played as a 100 to 120 Home Underdog – Vs NL Conference – After a conference game – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 run win: SU 16-34-0

When ARIZONA played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – With 2 Under or More – With SU Record of 2 Win 5 Lost in L7G: SU 7 – 14 – 0

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB

Game Date – 2014-04-26
Road Team :- (3415) PHILADELPHIA
Home Team :- (3416 )ARIZONA

 

PHILADELPHIATeam Name: PHILADELPHIA(Road Team)
Money Line: PHILADELPHIA -126 vs ARIZONA +116
Spread Line: PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +135 —– ARIZONA +1.5 -155
O/U: PHILADELPHIA 8.5 -120 —– ARIZONA 8.5 +100
Pitchers: PHILADELPHIA – C Lee (L) vs ARIZONA – B Arroyo (R)
Game Date: Saturday,April 26 2014 7:10 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Current Game: Arizona Diamondbacks
Next Game: At ARIZONA
Stats & Trends: PHILADELPHIA vs. ARIZONA
PVI Rating on Winning: 50%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 42.86%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 55.1%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 47%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 51%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.63
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.78
Road Team
(PHILADELPHIA)
When PHILADELPHIA is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When PHILADELPHIA is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8.5 0-1 32-31 25.4 0-1-0 29-34-0 76.99
vs Non-Division opponent 7-7 70-88 47.15 6-6-2 65-83-10 53.04
vs Conference opponent 6-5 44-49 50.93 5-4-2 40-45-8 48.69
Playing in the month of April 6-7 161-201 45.32 5-6-2 163-180-19 53.52
Playing on Saturday 1-1 22-26 47.92 0-2-0 25-20-3 72.22
Played as road Favorite 1-1 60-51 52.03 1-1-0 53-54-4 50.24
After a Non-Division Game 6-6 69-85 47.41 4-6-2 59-85-10 59.52
After a Conference Game 5-5 46-53 48.23 5-3-2 40-50-9 46.53
vs NL EAST Division Opponent (since 1996) 294-284 26-47 43.25 301-255-22 30-34-9 49.5
vs NL Conference Opponent 6-5 95-107 50.79 5-4-2 87-100-15 48.96
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent 4-3 27-29 52.68 3-2-2 26-26-4 45
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 5-5 87-101 48.14 5-3-2 85-89-14 44.33
Coming off 1 push 1-0 7-10 70.59 0-1-0 5-12-0 85.3
Coming off a lost 4-2 106-122 56.58 3-3-0 91-121-16 53.54
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 2-2 54-70 46.78 1-3-0 44-73-7 68.7
During a night game 3-6 108-130 39.36 3-4-2 111-112-15 53.68
Coming off a 8 road trip (since 1996) 5-10 0-3 16.67 6-8-1 1-2-0 61.91
Coming off a 1 runs loss 1-1 32-26 52.59 0-2-0 19-37-2 83.04
Coming off a score 4 runs FOR in last game (since 1996) 93-96 20-16 52.39 90-89-10 18-17-1 49.15
Coming off a score 5 runs AGAINST in last game 1-0 19-16 77.15 1-0-0 20-13-2 19.7
vs. opponent with a 21% to 30% winning % 1-1 9-7 53.13 0-1-1 8-6-2 71.43
vs ARIZONA (since 1996) 24-31 11-2 64.13 24-28-3 7-4-2 45.11
Coming off a Lost over NL WEST division opponent 2-1 16-14 60 2-1-0 12-17-1 45.98
Coming off a night game 4-4 102-116 48.4 3-4-1 93-113-12 56
Coming off a game 1 of a series 2-2 48-54 48.53 0-4-0 50-47-5 74.23
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 0-1 29-34 23.02 0-1-0 30-29-4 74.58
Last 30 days 7-7 167-209 47.21 6-6-2 170-186-20 51.13
Last 45 days 7-7 169-209 47.36 6-6-2 171-187-20 51.12
Last 60 days 7-7 169-209 47.36 6-6-2 171-187-20 51.12
Last 90 days 7-7 169-209 47.36 6-6-2 171-187-20 51.12
Vs. Right handed pitchers 4-5 121-155 44.14 6-2-1 126-136-14 38.46
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 3-5 123-138 42.32 3-3-2 114-132-15 51.83
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 2-1 69-80 56.49 2-1-0 58-85-6 46.39
TEAM: PHILADELPHIA
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.76 4.24
Home Games Avg 2.91 4.09
Road Games Avg 4.43 4.36
Last 3 Games Avg 3 2.67
Last 5 Games Avg 3.8 2
Last 10 Games Avg 3.2 3.5
vs. Division Games Avg 3.14 2.86
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.41 4.05
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 6.33 5.67
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.14 4.93
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 5.43 3.86
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3 2.5
After a Win Games Avg 3.18 4.18
After a Lost Games Avg 3.73 3.55
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.71 2.57
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.67 3.5
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 4 7
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 2.6 3.6
After an Over Games Avg 3.17 2.83
After an Under Games Avg 3.55 5.45
After a Push Games Avg 3 2
3.63 3.78
ARIZONATeam Name: ARIZONA(Home Team)
Money Line: ARIZONA +116 vs PHILADELPHIA -126
Spread Line: ARIZONA +1.5 -155 —– PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +135
O/U: ARIZONA 8.5 +100 —– PHILADELPHIA 8.5 -120
Pitchers: ARIZONA – B Arroyo (R) vs PHILADELPHIA – C Lee (L)
Game Date: Saturday,April 26 2014 7:10 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies
Current Game: Philadelphia Phillies
Next Game: Vs. PHILADELPHIA
Stats & Trends: ARIZONA vs. PHILADELPHIA
PVI Rating on Winning: 28%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 37.5%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 42.86%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 38%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 38%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.27
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 5.16
Home Team
(ARIZONA)
When ARIZONA is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When ARIZONA is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8.5 1-2 28-35 38.89 2-1-0 29-34-0 43.65
vs Non-Division opponent 1-3 72-86 35.29 1-1-2 65-83-10 53.04
vs Conference opponent 1-3 42-51 35.08 1-1-2 40-45-8 51.47
Playing in the month of April 2-8 167-195 33.07 5-3-2 163-180-19 44.99
Playing on Saturday 0-3 25-23 26.04 2-1-0 25-20-3 38.89
Played as home Underdog 0-6 44-79 17.89 4-2-0 53-66-4 44.4
After a Non-Division Game 1-2 65-83 38.63 0-1-2 61-79-8 78.22
After a Conference Game 1-3 47-54 35.77 1-1-2 42-51-8 52.42
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 1-3 27-36 33.93 1-1-2 26-30-7 51.79
vs NL Conference Opponent 2-11 96-107 31.34 7-4-2 84-104-15 45.84
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 0-2 29-36 22.31 0-1-1 27-32-6 77.12
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 2-9 95-105 32.84 6-3-2 80-105-15 45.05
Coming off a 3 winning streak (since 1996) 50-38 4-10 42.7 42-40-6 5-9-0 56.54
Coming off 1 push 0-1 7-9 21.88 0-1-0 4-11-1 86.67
Coming off a win 1-2 64-97 36.54 0-2-1 70-81-10 76.82
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 0-1 42-60 20.59 0-1-0 44-52-6 77.09
During a night game 2-7 106-132 33.38 5-2-2 111-112-15 39.4
Coming off a 1 runs win 0-2 15-37 14.43 0-2-0 16-34-2 84
Coming off a score 5 runs FOR in last game 1-2 18-19 40.99 1-1-1 17-17-3 50
Coming off a score 4 runs AGAINST in last game 0-1 16-23 20.52 0-1-0 19-19-1 75
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 1-4 60-69 33.26 1-2-2 57-61-11 59.18
vs PHILADELPHIA (since 1996) 31-24 7-7 53.18 24-28-3 6-6-2 51.93
Coming off a Win over NL EAST division opponent (since 1996) 75-70 10-10 50.86 67-74-4 12-8-0 46.24
Coming off a night game 1-7 102-129 28.33 4-3-1 101-118-12 48.37
Coming off a game 1 of a series 1-2 48-54 40.2 2-0-1 50-47-5 24.23
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series (since 1996) 122-89 27-30 52.6 112-89-10 27-26-4 46.67
Last 30 days 2-9 175-201 32.36 6-3-2 170-186-20 42.79
Last 45 days 2-11 175-203 30.84 7-4-2 171-187-20 44.3
Last 60 days 2-11 175-203 30.84 7-4-2 171-187-20 44.3
Last 90 days 2-11 175-203 30.84 7-4-2 171-187-20 44.3
Vs. Left handed pitchers 0-4 50-57 23.37 2-2-0 44-59-4 53.64
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 2-5 116-140 36.94 3-2-2 114-132-10 46.83
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 1-2 47-67 37.28 0-2-1 51-54-9 75.72
TEAM: ARIZONA
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.58 5.77
Home Games Avg 3.08 5.85
Road Games Avg 4.08 5.69
Last 3 Games Avg 4 2.33
Last 5 Games Avg 3 4.2
Last 10 Games Avg 2.8 4.9
vs. Division Games Avg 4.06 6
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.58 5.77
vs. Non Conference Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 4.5 6.2
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3 6.09
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3 4.2
After a Win Games Avg 2.86 4.29
After a Lost Games Avg 3.78 6.28
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.33 4.67
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.86 5.43
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 0 2
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.73 6.82
After an Over Games Avg 3.47 5.47
After an Under Games Avg 3.78 6.22
After a Push Games Avg 2 5
3.27 5.16

 

If “runline” were is in your lexicon, Philly would certainly justify it here.

Philly stands better in almost all variations and this kind of bet is not only in our wheelhouse, but defines it.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: PHILADELPHIA to win 8-3.

 

 

 

 

 

Be the first to comment on "Philadelphia Phillies (Lee) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Arroyo) – Preview April 26th, 2014"

Leave a comment