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Cleveland Indians (Masterson) vs. Los Angeles Angels (Skaggs) – Preview April 28th, 2014

Cleveland Indians
Cleveland Indians 
O/U :83.67
Vs.Date: 2014-04-28
Time: 21:05:00

Generated from 49 Previous Games

Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels
SIDE :-119
3.57 = 7.24

Tonight’s board has half the games of a normal MLB night. With so few games to choose from, it’s amazing that we lucked out and found such a solid pick for this kind of value.

Let’s take a look around this matchup and see what we can find:

PITCHING

Starting the bump for Cleveland today is Justin Masterson:

  • Historically, Masterson has dominated Aybar. He has only a handful of AB vs the rest of the LAA lineup, but besides Aybar, he also has Pujols under .300. Masterson’s problems will come from be Conger, batting over .400, and Trout, batting over .500.

Starting on the mound for Los Angeles today is Tyler Skaggs:

  • Historically, Skaggs is completely untested by CLE batters and so this is a massive question mark. With that said, Skaggs has a completely respectable 3.21ERA and given that he’s a Lefty, there is a serious conflict between Skaggs as a respectable Lefty and Cleveland’s history vs Lefty pitchers. This is a huge piece of our consideration with the Angels pick tonight.

Did you know:

  • Although Cleveland is 11-13 in all games, the Indians are 3-6 vs Lefties.
  • Although Cleveland averages 3.9 runs per game, they only average 2.9 vs Lefties.

 

  • Mastersonis throwing a mediocre 4.50ERA all games.
  • Mastersonis throwing a reasonable 3.60ERA on the road.
  • Masterson is throwing 4.50ERA L3G
  • Skaggs is throwing a solid 3.21ERA this season.
  • Skaggs is throwing a vulnerable 5.54ERA at home.
  • Skaggs is throwing a mediocre 4.50ERA L3G

 

  • Masterson gave up 8 hits in his last outing vs 22nd place KCR (.OPS), but he luckily only gave up 2ER. 3 games ago, he allowed 7 runs and 3rd place CWS bats taxed him for 5ER. Today, Masterson faces 2nd place LAA bats.
  • Skaggs allowed only 3 hits in his last outing but allowed 7 hits vs OAK two games ago and 9 hits vs the Mets 3 games ago. This makes Skaggs a little bit of a wildcard here tonight. If there is a chance for Cleveland to win tonight, they’ll have to first overcome their ranking of 22nd vs Lefties. And that’s not even considering LAA’s batting advantage.

 

Did you know:

  • MASTERSON is 4-0 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 1.87 and a WHIP of 1.353.

So every little bit of LAA’s hitting will be necessary here tonight. If they come out thinking that their batting heat of late is going to translate to this contest, then they’re dead wrong. Pound for pound, statistically speaking, there are very few other pitchers, if any, in the whole league, that LAA would rather not face.

Masterson is LAA’s boogeyman and I suspect that this is the reason we can collect these kinds of odds on an LAA wager tonight.

 

BATTING

  • CLE is batting 21st in the league with a .681OPS in the Regular Season.
    CLE is averaging 3.8 runs on the road this season.
    CLE is averaging 2.9
    vs Righty Starters.

 

  • LAA is batting 2nd in the league with a .765OPS in the Regular Season.
    LAA is averaging 5.4 runs at home this season.
    LAA is averaging 6.1 vs Righty Starters.

 

There is nothing equal about these bats. LAA has a clear advantage. Could there be a bigger advantage? Not with Cleveland facing a competent Lefty. This game is all on Skaggs to win or lose.

 

BULLPEN

  • The Indians have a good 3.09ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen maintains a solid 3.58ERA on the road.
  • The Angels have a mediocre 4.52ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen is a vulnerable 5.77ERA at home.

Indians have the advantage in the pen. In fact, with a pen like this, it means that Cleveland can erase whatever lead LAA manages, and they could take back the win across the 7th 8th and 9th innings. This is definitely a possibility, but with that said, LAA have the 2nd best bats in league and although 3.00ERA is very good, it’s not elite and it’s not impregnable. LAA’s bats are so dangerous that they also have chances to score in the late innings as well.

 

BONUS CONSIDERATION:

Masterson is one of the biggest Ground-Out pitchers in the league. This means that Masterson depends on his infield more so than other pitchers, and it also means that opponents are particularly vulnerable to double-plays…
…HOWEVER…
…since most errors happen in the infield, GO pitchers are particularly vulnerable to shaky infield. Cleveland is currently currently tied for 3rd most errors in league! If Cleveland has an AO pitcher, this number wouldn’t mean so much, but at a GO/AO of 3.08 Masterson is clearly a GO pitcher and his infield could cost him dearly. Let’s look for this to play out in tonight’s game and possibly even be the difference between the win or loss.

 

 

ATSSTATS

 

What is there to talk about here? Sometimes ATSSTATS makes a strong case in one category. Sometimes it makes a moderate case across all categories, but today, we see one of the few examples where it’s crystal clear across all categories. ATS STATS makes an extremely dominant case for the historical chances that LAA has typically had in these situations. Given that today’s real-time matchup also has LAA with solid chances, there is no other pick on the board with this kind of value. LAA should be priced at -175, but we’re getting it for -125. It could be argued that LAA is too good to be true, so that’s something to keep an eye on. Sometimes, going with the second best value is the better play…but for today, given the dominance, LAA has such a strong chance to win that this pick can’t be denied.

RAYMOND REPORT

CLEVELANDTeam Name: CLEVELAND(Road Team)
Money Line: CLEVELAND +113 vs LOS ANGELES ANGELS -123
Spread Line: CLEVELAND +1.5 -185 —– LOS ANGELES ANGELS -1.5 +165
O/U: CLEVELAND 8 -105 —– LOS ANGELES ANGELS 8 -115
Pitchers: CLEVELAND – J Masterson (R) vs LOS ANGELES ANGELS – T Skaggs (L)
Game Date: Monday,April 28 2014 9:05 PM
Last Game: lost 1 – 4 vs San Francisco Giants
Current Game: Los Angeles Angels
Next Game: At LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Stats & Trends: CLEVELAND vs. LOS ANGELES ANGELS
PVI Rating on Winning: 45.83%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 45.83%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 55.1%
Streaks: 3 SU Lost – 1 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 39%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 51%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.31
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.92
LOS ANGELES ANGELSTeam Name: LOS ANGELES ANGELS(Home Team)
Money Line: LOS ANGELES ANGELS -123 vs CLEVELAND +113
Spread Line: LOS ANGELES ANGELS -1.5 +165 —– CLEVELAND +1.5 -185
O/U: LOS ANGELES ANGELS 8 -115 —– CLEVELAND 8 -105
Pitchers: LOS ANGELES ANGELS – T Skaggs (L) vs CLEVELAND – J Masterson (R)
Game Date: Monday,April 28 2014 9:05 PM
Last Game: lost 2 – 3 vs New York Yankees
Current Game: Cleveland Indians
Next Game: Vs. CLEVELAND
Stats & Trends: LOS ANGELES ANGELS vs. CLEVELAND
PVI Rating on Winning: 45.83%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 33.33%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 57.14%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 2 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 55%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 5.54
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4

The Raymond Report just cinches up the case for LAA and all signs give us the go ahead here. This is a full unit pick, and there will be no regrets no matter how this game plays out.

Tonight’s Prediction: LOS ANGELES to win 5-4.

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