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Washington Nationals (Gonzalez) vs. Houston Astros (Cosart) – Preview April 29th, 2014

Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 
SIDE :-1455.03
Vs.Date: 2014-04-29
Time: 19:10:00

Generated from 49 Previous Games

Houston Astros
Houston Astros
O/U :8
3.68 = 8.71

 

Let’s look at tonight’s matchup where the Nationals will probably trounce Houston.

Here is why:

In today’s matchup, we’ll bank on a few things…

Washington Vulnerabilities:

  • Gonzalez’s less than optimal record vs Altuve, Fowler and Guzman
  • Gonzalez unpredictability w/ 3.00ERA all games, 5.25ERA at home, and 4.50ERA L3G
  • HOU averaging 4 runs/game L3G.

Houston Vulnerabilities:

  • Gonzalez‘s record vs HOU despite his poor vs. record
  • Fantasy sites rank Gio as 3rd highest paid
  • HOU’s inert bats vs. Lefty starters averaging 2.7 runs/game/
  • HOU’s extremely vulnerable bullpen w/ 6.05ERA all games and 6.61ERA at away
  • HOU’s ‘bottom of barrel’ rank in team hitting
  • WSH being 7-1 L3S vs HOU
  • Gonzalez‘s ERA vs HOU who is 2-0 vs HOU with an ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 0.938

 

PITCHING

Starting the bump for Washington today is Gio Gonzalez:

  • Historically,Gonzalez has given up .AVG to Altuve, Fowler, and Guzman. But with that said, his record vs HOU in terms of .ERA is a whole different story. Hits don’t win games. Runs win games. So although we expect Gio to give up a few hits, especially since he’s given up a copious 17 hits L3G combined, the expectation here would be that HOU gets burned with many runners stranded.

Starting on the mound for Houston today is Jared Cosart:

  • Historically,Cosart is completely untested by WSH batters and so this is a massive question mark. With that said, Cosart has a quite vulnerable 6.12ERA across all games. He does a little better at home with a 4.09ERA, but that’s quickly offset by his last 3 starts where he’s averaging 7.71ERA. This is a huge piece of our consideration with the Nationals pick tonight considering that the Nats are a top 10 team in .OPS

 

  • Gonzalez is throwing a fair 3.00ERA all games.
  • Gonzalez is throwing a vulnerable 5.25ERA on the road.
  • Gonzalez is throwing a mediocre 4.50ERA L3G.
  • Cosart is throwing a terrible 6.12ERA this season.
  • Cosart is throwing a so-so 4.09ERA at home.
  • Cosart is throwing a laughable 7.71ERA L3G.

 

  • Gonzalez, in his last outing, gave up only 4 hits in his last outing vs 3rd place LAA (.OPS).
  • Cosart allowed only 4 hits in his last outing vs 25th place SEA, but allowed 7 hits vs OAK two games ago.This makes Cosart a little bit of a wildcard here tonight, but considering SEA bats can’t be compared with WSH bats, we expect to see a little bit more action at the plate with Cosart on the bump.

 

Did you know:

  • Gonzalez is 2-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 0.938.

Bottom line here, if Gonzalez pitches any kind of a game at all, Washington’s chances to win should be locked in.

 

 

BATTING

  • WSH is batting 8th in the league with a .731OPS in the Regular Season.
    WSH is averaging 5.6 runs on the road this season.
    WSH is averaging
    3.9 vs Righty Starters.

 

  • HOU is batting 27th in the league with a .646OPS in the Regular Season.
    HOU is averaging 3.3 runs at home this season.
    HOU is averaging 2.7
    vs Lefty Starters.

 

There is nothing equal about these bats. The Nats have a clear advantage. Could there be a bigger advantage here in terms of hitting? Not likely. Not with the Astros facing a Lefty. This game is all on Gonzalez to win or lose.

 

BULLPEN

  • The Nationals have a good 2.28ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen maintains a solid 3.45ERA on the road.
     
  • The Astros have a mediocre 6.05ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen is a vulnerable 6.61ERA at home.

The Nats have the advantage in the pen. In fact, with a pen like this, it not only means that Washington has 9 full inning to peel labels off the Rawlings, but also it means, more likely, that WSH will win this by the RL. That said, we don’t deal with RL predictions here, our wheelhouse is ML. All-in-all, of all the picks that merit bets, this one is at least middle-road.

 

BONUS CONSIDERATION:

Did you know:

  • WASHINGTON as a road favorite of -125 to -150: SU 29-11 L3S.
  • HOUSTON when playing against a team with a winning record: SU 48-130 L3S.

 

ATS STATS:

Some stats to support Washington:

Some stats to threaten Washington:

ATS Stats has made stronger cases, and we should be at least a tiny bit nervous about the historical position that Washington is in here; but with that said, we should feel that for every chance that WSH has to go wrong, HOU has two more. At -150 odds, this consideration pays off all day long.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: WASHINGTON to win 6-3.

 

 

 

 

 

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