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San Diego Padres (Erlin) vs. San Francisco (Hudson) – Preview April 30th, 2014

San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 
O/U :72.82
Vs.Date: 2014-04-30
Time: 21:15:00

Generated from 25 Previous Games

San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
SIDE :-159
3.85 = 6.67

 

Deja Vu! Just like last night, we have to pick the Giants again tonight.

What we have to respect here is consistency. Let’s start this one off a tiny bit differently. Let’s start with a factoid:

Did you know:

  • HUDSON is 6-2 vs SAN DIEGO w/ an ERA of 2.81 and a WHIP of 1.288.

This is an established 8 game trend of very good – excellent pitching. Nothing in sports capping is chiseled in stone, but this is just about as close as it gets.

 

Let’s look at why San Fransisco make sense again today:

 

PITCHING

Starting the bump for San Diego today is Robbie Erlin:

  • Historically, Erlin has 27AB across 4/10 SFG batters over a .300 AVG.
  • Historically, Erlin has 20AB across 6/10 SFG batters under a .300 AVG.
  • Historically, Hudson has 21AB across 3/8 SDP batters over a .300 AVG.
  • Historically, Hudson has 30AB across 5/8 SDP batters under a .300 AVG.

Looking at it objectively, Hudson has the small numbers in the right spots and the big numbers in the right spots. Erlin has it exactly in reverse and this is good news for the people with the SFG pick tonight.

 

  • Erlin is throwing a very vulnerable6.35ERA all games.
  • Erlin is throwing a terrible 7.15ERA on the road.
  • Erlin is throwing a rotten 8.44ERA L3G.
  • Hudson is throwing a hard-to-beat 2.19ERA this season.
  • Hudson is throwing a solid 2.82ERA at home.
  • Hudson is throwing a steady 2.95ERA L3G.

 

  • In his last outing, Erlin gave up mind-boggling 13 hits, with 8ER against. Maybe we shouldn’t expect him to show up the same tonight, in fact, he’ll be throwing for his life and career…but with that said…we could never entertain the idea that he can out throw Hudson’s chisled historical precedent either.
  • In his last outing, Hudson gave up only 4 hits, with 1ER against. Hudson is on his game lasting at least 7IP across his L3G. Hudson should be well motivated in the point that he doesn’t want an embarrassing loss versus the likes of Erlin.

 

Did you know:

  • SAN FRANCISCO is 14-6 against SAN DIEGO over the L3Y
  • SAN FRANCISCO after shutting out their opponent is 20-12 L3Y

 

BATTING

  • SDP is batting 30th in the league with a .601OPS in the Regular Season.
    SDP is averaging 2.4 runs on the road this season.
    SDP is averaging 2.5
    vs Righty Starters.
  • SFG is batting15th in the leaguewith a .712OPS in the Regular Season.
    SFG is averaging 4.0 runs at home this season.
    SFG is averaging 3.5
    vs Lefty Starters.

 

There is nothing equal about these bats. SFG has the advantage, hands down. But with that said, there is no blue in SFG bats and that means that at their worst, SDP could test them. SFG is averaging a promising 5.3 r/g L7G so SFG bats are firing on all cylinders lately. This should help mitigate the point that they’re not a top 10 team across all gams.

 

BULLPEN

  • ThePadres have an elite 1.81ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen maintains a solid 2.37ERA on the road.
  • The Giants have an elite 2.06ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen is a superior 0.74ERA at home.

Both teams are in a position to shut down the scoring heading into the last 3 innings. This will make their starting pitchers’ roles absolutely crucial to the final. This is the reason for the pick, this is the reason for the prediction. It really is as simple as Hudson vs Erlin.

Could we get taxed in a 4-1 SDP blowout? Yup. I’ve seen stranger things happen in these positions, but there is no regret with this pick as these considerations are established to earn money in the long run.

 

 

ATS STATS

ATS Stats that support the Giant’s pick:

When SAN DIEGO played as Road Underdog- Vs NL WEST: SU 14-26-0

When SAN DIEGO team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – Before a conference game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 9 Game Road Trip: SU 3-9-0

When SAN DIEGO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Before a division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Loss vs. NL WEST opponent: SU 10-24-0

When SAN DIEGO team played as a Road team – Playing on Wednesday – During a night game – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off 1 under: SU 3-9-0

When ANY MLB Team played as a 140 to 160 Road Underdog – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Vs NL WEST opponent – During the month of April – Coming off 1 under: SU 8-15-0

When HUDSON TIM ‘s Team played as Home Team- With Total between 8.5 and 9.0: SU 46-26-0

When HUDSON TIM ‘s Team played as Home Favourite- With a spread between 160 and 180: SU 31-13-0

When HUDSON TIM ‘s Team played as Home Team- With a spread between 160 and 180: SU 31-13-0

When HUDSON TIM ‘s Team played as Home Favourite- With Total between 8.5 and 9.0: SU 33-17-0

When HUDSON TIM ‘s Team played as Home Favourite- in the month of April: SU 23-7-0

When HUDSON TIM ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- With a spread between 160 and 180: SU 25-15-0

When HUDSON TIM ‘s Team played as Home Team- in the month of April: SU 26-9-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a Home team – 3rd game of a series – During a night game – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Home win: SU 14-8-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of April – After a division game – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Home win: SU 8-4-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Playing on Wednesday – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent: SU 9-4-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a Home team – During the month of April – After a division game – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent – Coming off a 1 game win: SU 19-11-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of April – Vs. Left handed pitchers: SU 33-13-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a -160 to -180 home Favorite – During a night game – Vs. Left handed pitchers: SU 27-5-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a -160 to -180 home Favorite – 3rd game of a series – Vs. Left handed pitchers: SU 10-4-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a -160 to -180 home Favorite – Vs NL Conference – Vs. Left handed pitchers: SU 37-14-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a home team – After a division game – Vs. Left handed pitchers: SU 99-64-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a -160 to -180 home Favorite – After a division game – During the month of April: SU 12-1-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a -160 to -180 home Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Playing on Wednesday: SU 8-3-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – 3rd game of a series – Vs. Left handed pitchers: SU 46-28-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of April – Vs Division Opponent: SU 57-31-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of April – During a night game: SU 56-36-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – During a night game: SU 134-49-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs. Left handed pitchers: SU 134-49-0

When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 4 years – During a night game – Playing on Wednesday – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent: SU 41-27-0

When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Last 2 years – Playing on Wednesday – Coming off a 5 Game Home Stand – Coming off a Home win: SU 34-20-0

When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Playing on Wednesday – Before a non division game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a night game – Coming off a 6 run win: SU 12-7-0

When ANY MLB Team played as a -160 to -180 Home Favorite – Coming off vs. National League opponent – After a division game – Before a conference game – Coming off 1 under: SU 22-11-0

When SAN FRANCISCO Played as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – Won Last Game by 6 Runs or More: SU 11 – 3 – 0

When SAN FRANCISCO Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Under or Less: SU 48 – 31 – 0

When SAN FRANCISCO Played as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Under or Less – Won Last Game by 6 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 4 Win 1 Lost in L5G: SU15 – 5 – 0

When SAN FRANCISCO played as a home team – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Under – Won Last Game by 6 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 5 Win 2 Lost in L7G: SU8 – 4 – 0

When SAN FRANCISCO played as any home/road team – During Last 3 Years – With 1 Under or Less – Won Last Game by 6 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G: SU 23 – 15 – 0

ATS Stats that threaten the Giant’s pick:

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

 

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB
Game Date – 2014-04-30
Road Team :- (3415) SAN DIEGO
Home Team :- (3416 )SAN FRANCISCO

 

SAN DIEGOTeam Name: SAN DIEGO(Road Team)
Money Line: SAN DIEGO +157 vs SAN FRANCISCO -171
Spread Line: SAN DIEGO +1.5 -145 —– SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +125
O/U: SAN DIEGO —– SAN FRANCISCO
Pitchers: SAN DIEGO – R Erlin (L) vs SAN FRANCISCO – T Hudson (R)
Game Date: Wednesday,April 30 2014 9:15 PM
Last Game: lost 0 – 6 vs San Francisco Giants
Current Game: San Francisco Giants
Next Game: Vs. ARIZONA
Stats & Trends: SAN DIEGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
PVI Rating on Winning: 46.43%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 76.92%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 63.26%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 41%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 63%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 2.51
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.68
Road Team
(SAN DIEGO)
When SAN DIEGO is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When SAN DIEGO is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
vs Division opponent 1-1 114-138 47.62 1-1-0 119-116-17 49.68
vs Conference opponent 4-6 51-60 42.98 2-7-1 48-55-8 65.59
Playing in the month of April 6-10 183-235 40.64 4-11-1 186-206-26 62.94
Playing on Wednesday 1-2 30-38 38.73 0-3-0 26-39-3 80
Played as road Underdog 6-9 124-181 40.33 3-11-1 134-151-20 65.78
After a Division Game 0-3 106-133 22.18 1-2-0 116-107-16 57.33
After a Conference Game 4-7 53-65 40.64 2-8-1 47-62-9 68.44
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 1-1 39-32 52.47 1-1-0 34-31-6 48.85
vs NL Conference Opponent 5-7 109-125 44.13 3-8-1 98-116-20 63.47
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent 0-3 33-35 24.27 1-2-0 31-31-6 58.34
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 5-8 102-122 42 3-9-1 97-108-19 63.84
Coming off 1 under 3-0 36-60 68.75 0-3-0 31-61-4 83.15
Coming off a lost 5-6 119-143 45.44 2-8-1 103-139-20 68.72
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 3-2 56-78 50.9 1-4-0 47-78-9 71.2
During a night game 3-8 123-151 36.08 4-6-1 129-125-20 54.61
Coming off a 9 road trip (since 1996) 9-15 1-3 31.25 13-8-3 1-3-0 56.55
Coming off a 6 runs loss 0-1 3-8 13.64 0-1-0 7-4-0 68.18
Coming off a score 6 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 59-76 11-18 40.82 74-59-2 11-15-3 51.03
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 4-4 44-53 47.68 2-5-1 47-42-8 59.31
vs SAN FRANCISCO (since 1996) 59-85 5-9 38.34 79-61-4 7-7-0 46.79
Coming off a Lost over NL WEST division opponent 0-2 19-18 25.68 1-1-0 15-20-2 53.57
Coming off a game that went under 1-4 40-53 31.51 0-5-0 44-40-9 73.81
Coming off a night game 4-8 115-137 39.48 3-8-1 108-126-18 63.29
Split 1st 2 games of a series 1-3 32-39 35.04 0-4-0 31-38-2 77.54
Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 2-2 25 0-4-0 50
Last 30 days 6-10 189-242 40.68 4-11-1 193-211-27 62.78
Last 45 days 6-10 191-243 40.76 4-11-1 194-213-27 62.83
Last 60 days 6-10 191-243 40.76 4-11-1 194-213-27 62.83
Last 90 days 6-10 191-243 40.76 4-11-1 194-213-27 62.83
Vs. Right handed pitchers 5-10 134-183 37.8 3-11-1 141-157-19 65.63
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 6-5 140-165 50.23 1-9-1 134-151-20 71.49
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 5-6 79-96 45.3 2-8-1 67-100-8 69.94
TEAM: SAN DIEGO
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 2.59 3.45
Home Games Avg 3 2.62
Road Games Avg 2.25 4.13
Last 3 Games Avg 3.33 4
Last 5 Games Avg 2.2 5.4
Last 10 Games Avg 2.5 4.4
vs. Division Games Avg 2.67 3.08
vs. Conference Games Avg 2.45 3.73
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3 2.57
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.53 3.84
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.17 2.67
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 2 2.75
After a Win Games Avg 2.54 3.85
After a Lost Games Avg 2.36 2.93
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.5 4.33
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 2 2.5
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.57 3.43
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 2.83 3.5
After an Over Games Avg 1.17 3.5
After an Under Games Avg 3.05 3.15
After a Push Games Avg 2 7.5
2.51 3.68
SAN FRANCISCOTeam Name: SAN FRANCISCO(Home Team)
Money Line: SAN FRANCISCO -171 vs SAN DIEGO +157
Spread Line: SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +125 —– SAN DIEGO +1.5 -145
O/U: SAN FRANCISCO —– SAN DIEGO
Pitchers: SAN FRANCISCO – T Hudson (R) vs SAN DIEGO – R Erlin (L)
Game Date: Wednesday,April 30 2014 9:15 PM
Last Game: win 0 – 6 vs San Diego Padres
Current Game: San Diego Padres
Next Game: At ATLANTA
Stats & Trends: SAN FRANCISCO vs. SAN DIEGO
PVI Rating on Winning: 59.26%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 46.15%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 44.9%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 55%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.22
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.64
Home Team
(SAN FRANCISCO)
When SAN FRANCISCO is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When SAN FRANCISCO is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
vs Division opponent 6-5 114-138 49.9 6-5-0 119-116-17 47.41
vs Conference opponent (since 1996) 390-294 53-58 52.39 323-334-27 48-55-8 52.12
Playing in the month of April 9-5 193-225 55.23 7-7-0 186-206-26 51.28
Playing on Wednesday 1-1 31-37 47.8 1-1-0 26-39-3 55
Played as home Favorite 8-5 149-143 56.29 7-6-0 134-138-20 48.45
After a Division Game 7-4 112-130 54.96 5-6-0 114-111-17 51.94
After a Conference Game 1-0 58-62 74.17 0-1-0 50-62-8 77.68
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 6-5 33-37 50.85 6-5-0 31-34-5 48.88
vs NL Conference Opponent 6-5 106-127 50.02 6-5-0 93-120-20 50.9
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent 7-4 32-35 55.7 5-6-0 27-34-6 55.15
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 7-4 105-121 55.05 5-6-0 88-118-20 55.92
Coming off 1 under 3-1 51-59 60.68 3-1-0 46-59-5 40.6
Coming off a win 5-4 75-115 47.52 3-6-0 82-94-14 60.04
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 4-3 50-70 49.41 2-5-0 52-60-8 62.5
During a night game 5-3 120-154 53.15 4-4-0 129-125-20 49.61
Coming off a 5 home stand 1-0 13-10 78.26 1-0-0 10-13-0 28.26
Coming off a 6 runs win (since 1996) 26-7 7-4 71.22 18-15-0 6-5-0 45.45
Coming off a score 6 runs FOR in last game 0-1 15-16 24.2 0-1-0 13-15-3 76.79
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 5-2 77-79 60.4 4-3-0 70-74-12 47.13
vs SAN DIEGO (since 1996) 85-59 9-7 57.64 79-61-4 4-11-1 58.45
Coming off a Win over NL WEST division opponent 3-3 16-24 45 1-5-0 9-26-5 78.81
Coming off a game that went under 4-0 48-52 74 0-4-0 47-45-8 74.46
Coming off a night game 5-3 120-147 53.72 4-4-0 117-132-18 51.51
Split 1st 2 games of a series 1-1 32-39 47.54 2-0-0 31-38-2 27.54
Coming off a win in game 2 of a series 1-1 19-36 42.28 0-2-0 24-28-3 76.93
Last 30 days 9-5 200-231 55.35 7-7-0 193-211-27 51.12
Last 45 days 9-5 201-233 55.3 7-7-0 194-213-27 51.17
Last 60 days 9-5 201-233 55.3 7-7-0 194-213-27 51.17
Last 90 days 9-5 201-233 55.3 7-7-0 194-213-27 51.17
Vs. Left handed pitchers 3-2 59-65 53.79 1-4-0 52-66-6 67.97
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 3-1 56-62 61.23 1-3-0 56-51-11 61.33
Coming off win vs. Left handed pitcher 0-2 20-34 18.52 0-2-0 21-31-2 79.81
TEAM: SAN FRANCISCO
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.33 3.7
Home Games Avg 4 3
Road Games Avg 4.69 4.46
Last 3 Games Avg 4.67 2.33
Last 5 Games Avg 4.8 2.2
Last 10 Games Avg 4.4 3.7
vs. Division Games Avg 4.29 3.96
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.29 3.96
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4.67 1.67
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 4.33 5
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.83 2.83
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.53 3.53
After a Win Games Avg 3.87 3.6
After a Lost Games Avg 4.55 3.45
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 5.14 4.43
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.5 3.5
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.75 2.88
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.6 3.4
After an Over Games Avg 4.43 3.07
After an Under Games Avg 4 3.73
After a Push Games Avg 2 8
4.22 3.64

 

I think we have yet to double up our pick and something is weird about it. Despite the case for WASHINGTON and for SAN FRANSISCO…something is causing a nervous vibe here. On paper, we should head straight to the ticket window, but there is something odd about these picks. I suppose a healthy amount of nervousness is a good thing, even on picks as apparently secure as these.

 

 

Tonight’s Pick: SAN FRANSISCO to win 5-3.

 

 

 

 

 

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