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Washington Nationals (Zimmerman) vs. Houston Astros (Oberholtzer) – Preview April 30th, 2014

Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 
SIDE :-1425.03
Vs.Date: 2014-04-30
Time: 19:10:00

Generated from 49 Previous Games

Houston Astros
Houston Astros
O/U :8
3.68 = 8.71

 

It’s deja vu today! Looking at all of the matchups…focusing on teams’ starting pitchers, focusing on a team’s bullpen capacity to shut a game down and protect a lead, focusing on the strength and capacity to put runs up on the scoreboard…we’re stuck in deja vu all over again.

 

Let’s look at why Washington make sense again today:

 

PITCHING

Starting the bump for Washington today is Jordan Zimmerman:

  • Historically, Zimmerman hasn’t faced these batters enough to establish anything concrete. That said, Gonzalez and Guzman did fare quite well in the handful of times they faced Zimmerman.  Zimmerman has given up 18 hits in his last 3 starts and averages 2ER per game L3G. Zimmerman has proven an elite WHIP of 0.904 and he’s currently throwing under 3.00ERA at home and in his L3G. His ERA is still 4.05, but based on his recent performance, that ERA can be explained by residual Spring Training rust.

Starting on the mound for Houston today is Brett Oberholtzer:

  • Historically, Oberholtzer is completely untested by Washington batters and so this is a massive question mark. With that said, Oberholtzer has a quite vulnerable 4.61ERA across all games. He does worse at home with a 8.67ERA, but that’s only across 9.3IP. He maintains a 4.41ERA L3S. Oberholtzer has some potential, but it’s nothing to bank on. He’s not quite even a middle-fare pitcher, so the Nationals will have some chances tonight. The Astros bats have little chance to solve Zimmerman, and they can look forward to a 2.21ERA in WSH’s bullen, assuming Zimmerman doesn’t go the whole 9.

 

  • Zimmerman is throwing a fair 4.05ERA all games.
  • Zimmerman is throwing a rock-solid 2.57ERA on the road.
  • Zimmerman is throwing a mediocre 2.70ERA L3G.
  • Oberholtzer is throwing a mediocre 4.61ERA this season.
  • Oberholtzer is throwing a terrible 8.67ERA at home.
  • Oberholtzer is throwing a laughable 4.41ERA L3G.

 

  • Zimmermanin his last outing, gave up only 5 hits vs last place SDP (.OPS) but 3 of those hits turned ER. It’s a subtle clue that Zimmerman might not show up hot here today. There is a chance that Zimmerman shows up about equal to Oberholtzer, despite his superior ERA.
  • Oberholtzer allowed 8 hits in his last outing vs 4th place OAK, he gave up a horrendous 6ER and might come out well motivated here tonight vs Washington. This is a little bit concerning, but as valid as this consideration is…it can also be applied to Zimmerman who didn’t have the best last outing either. Oberholtzer is a little bit of a wildcard, but at the end of the day, with all things equal, Zimmerman should prove better in this spot.

 

Did you know:

  • WASHINGTON is 8-1 against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
  • WASHINGTON is 5-0 against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons

Bottom line here, if Zimmerman pitches any kind of a game at all, Washington’s chances to win appear fairly convincing.

 

 

BATTING

  • WSH is batting 8th in the league with a .732OPS in the Regular Season.
    WSH is averaging 5.4 runs on the road this season.
    WSH is averaging 5.7
    vs Lefty Starters.

 

  • HOU is batting 28th in the league with a .641OPS in the Regular Season.
    HOU is averaging 3.3 runs at home this season.
    HOU is averaging 3.6
    vs Righty Starters.

 

There is nothing equal about these bats. The Nats have a clear advantage. With that said, yesterday was a sobering reminder that things don’t always go as planned. Luckily WSH managed to overcome their pen as predicted, but the prediction regarding the first half of that game was completely sideways. So sometimes things go screwy. That said, we have to look at it as a tax that we have to pay, at random, time to time.

 

BULLPEN

  • The Nationals have a good 2.21ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen maintains a solid 3.13ERA on the road.
  • The Astros have a mediocre 6.04ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen is a vulnerable 6.58ERA at home.

The Nats have the advantage in the pen. In fact, with a pen like this, it not only means that Washington has 9 full inning to peel labels off the Rawlings, but also it means, more likely, that WSH will win this by the RL. That said, we don’t deal with RL predictions here, our wheelhouse is ML. All-in-all, of all the picks that merit bets, this one is at least middle-road.

 

BONUS CONSIDERATION:

Did you know:

  • WASHINGTON when playing on Wednesday: SU 39-17 L3Y
  • WASHINGTON as a road favorite of -125 to -150: SU 39-17 L3Y
  • HOUSTON when playing against a team with a winning record: SU 48-131 L3S.

 

ATSSTATS

Stats that support Washington:

When WASHINGTON team played as a -140 to -160 road Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – During a night game: SU 8-2-0

When WASHINGTON team played as a road team – Playing on Wednesday – Last 2 years: SU 21-7-0

When WASHINGTON team Played as road team as a Favorite – During a night game – Playing on Wednesday: SU 12-4-0

When ANY MLB (WSH) Team played as a -140 to -160 Road Favorite – Coming off vs. National League opponent – 2nd game of a series – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher: SU 38-19-0

When ANY MLB (WSH) Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Playing on Wednesday – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a 1 run win: SU 27-18-0

When ANY MLB (WSH)  Team played as a -140 to -160 Road Favorite – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Vs. Left handed pitchers – 2nd game of a series – Scored 4 or more runs FOR in their last game: SU 12-5-0

When ANY MLB (WSH) Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – 2nd game of a series – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Before a conference game – Coming off a night game – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a 1 run win: SU 38-18-0

When WASHINGTON Played as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G: SU63 – 42 – 0

When WASHINGTON Played as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With 3 Under: SU13 – 6 – 0

When HOUSTON team played as a 120 to 140 home Underdog – Last 4 years – Vs. Right handed pitchers: SU 21-39-0

When ANY MLB Team played as a 120 to 140 Home Underdog – During a night game – During the month of April – Coming off a 1 run lost – Coming off lost vs. Left handed pitcher: SU 5-11-0

When ANY MLB Team played as a 120 to 140 Home Underdog – Last 4 years – Playing on Wednesday – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 game loss: SU 6-12-0

When HOUSTON Played as home team as a Underdog – During Last 4 Years – Lost Last Game by 1 Runs or Less: SU12 – 27 – 0

When HOUSTON Played as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – Lost Last Game by 1 Runs or More: SU94 – 209 – 0

When HOUSTON played as a home team – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G: SU 11 – 24 – 0

 

Stats that threatent Washington:

When WASHINGTON team played as a Road team – Before a division game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite: SU 3-8-0

When WASHINGTON team played as a Road team – During a night game – During the month of April – Allowed 3 runs or less AGAINST in their last game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher: SU 11-26-0

When WASHINGTON team played as a Road team – During a night game – After a non division game – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a 3 game under: SU 4-8-0

 

Again, the case could be stronger for WASHINGTON, but this is definitely a good case that ATS Stats makes regarding the historical positioning of Washington’s chances to win in this situation.

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT is still valid from yesterday.

Philadelphia with a measured advantage over Houston in this position.

 

All in all, we should feel a bit nervous about this pick but WSH does reach into the spectrum of value here. They can pound on Houston’s bullpen if they end up behind after 6…but ultimately, there is no reason that they shouldn’t be ahead after 6.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: WASHINGTON to win 5-4.

 

 

 

 

 

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