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Milwaukee Brewers (Estrada) vs. Cincinnati Reds (Bailey) – Preview May 1st, 2014

Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 
O/U :74.37
Vs.Date: 2014-05-01
Time: 18:10:00Generated from 46 Previous Games
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
SIDE :-116
4.56 = 8.93

 

Today’s matchup is a little bit duplicitous! We could call it, “History vs Present Day”.

After looking at the whole board (tough day), this is the game that pops out. Let’s look at why it stands out, but let’s also see why we only recommend a 1/2 unit on this play.

Let’s look at it:

 

PITCHING

Starting the bump for Milwaukee today is Marco Estrada:

  • Historically, Estrada has 48AB across 3/8 CIN batters over a .300 AVG.
  • Historically, Estrada has 37AB across 5/8 CIN batters under a .300 AVG.
  • Estrada is throwing a solid 2.87ERA all games.
  • Estrada is throwing a fluent 2.04ERA on the road.
  • Estrada is throwing a steady 3.20ERA L3G.

Looking at it objectively, Estrada hasn’t traditionally dominated CIN batters. In and of itself, Estrada doesn’t bring any kind of confidence. In a vacuum, Estrado actually could be called a liability here. The Reds have opportunity in Estrada.

Starting the bump for Cincinnati today is Homer Bailey:

  • Historically, Bailey has 58AB across 4/12 MIL batters over a .300 AVG.
  • Historically, Bailey has 100AB across 8/12 MIL batters under a .300 AVG.
  • Bailey is throwing a terrible 6.15ERA this season.
  • Bailey is throwing a career-low 8.68ERA at home.
  • Bailey is throwing a poor 5.29ERA L3G.

 

 PITCHING SUMMARY:

  • In his last outing, Estrada only gave up 4 hits, but suffered 3ER. Estrada has struggled against Cincinnati batters, but at the same time, so far in 2014 Estrada has thrown the best ball of his near decade-long career.
  • In his last outing, Bailey allowed 9 hits and gave up 5ER. Bailey showed up tough vs CHC where he allowed 6H and escaped with 0ER, but in the game before that vs PIT on the 14th, he gave up 8 hits and suffered 5ER. Bailey has historically done very well against Milwaukee bats; but with that said, Baily is throwing some of the worst ball in his career so far in this 2014 season.

 

 

Did you know:

  • ESTRADA is 1-2 vs CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.44 and a WHIP of 0.882.
  • BAILEY is 3-7 vs MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 5.36 and a WHIP of 1.422.

 

BATTING

  • MIL is batting 12th in the league with a .717OPS in the Regular Season.
    MIL is averaging 5.6 runs on the road this season.
    MIL is averaging
    vs Righty Starters.
  • CIN is batting 18th in the leaguewith a .698OPS in the Regular Season.
    CIN is averaging 4.1 runs at home this season.
    CIN is averaging 3.4
    vs Righty Starters.

 

Milwaukee has opportunity here. That said, if MIL takes after their vs RH stat and if CIN takes after their home record, then the batting matchup could be a lot tighter than we’re comfortable with.

 

BULLPEN

  • The Brewers have a worthy 2.45ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen maintains a steady 2.82ERA on the road.
  • The Reds have a lackluster 4.82ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen is a mediocre 4.39ERA at home.

So long as the Brewers can manage a lead in the first 6, they should be considered massive favourites to hold that lead. Considering their batting advantage and the very interesting “?” nature of today’s pitching matchup, Milwaukee should be considered advantageous here due to their clearly superior bullpen. Added to that, the Reds’ bullpen should allow Milwaukee chances through the back 3, meaning that if the Brewers find themselves behind, this game won’t be over for the Brewers until the final out.

 

This pitching matchup is ultra-cool and ultra-interesting due to the ‘history vs real-time’ element. The entertainment of watching these guys face-off helps add to the reason we’ve found value in this game.

This is an average game for baseball fans, but for aspiring sports handicappers, this is one of the most crucial contests of the season so far due to the educational value.

 

ATSSTATS

ATS Stats has an extreme and monster case for Cincinatti. To post all of the historical stats would take a whole page. The Reds have historically obliterated and dominated Milwaukee in this position and we would be right to feel very nervously about what ATS Stats has to say about Milwaukee’s chances of winning here.

We VERY rarely would pick against ATS when it has a case that is this strong.
It is not advised and it is at our own risk.

Since we’re fading ATS Stats on this rare occasion, it would be in poor taste to show the 50 situations where Cincinnati dominates.

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB

Game Date – 2014-05-01
Road Team :- (3007) MILWAUKEE
Home Team :- (3008 )CINCINNATI

 

MILWAUKEETeam Name: MILWAUKEE(Road Team)
Money Line: MILWAUKEE +110 vs CINCINNATI -120
Spread Line: MILWAUKEE +1.5 -210 —– CINCINNATI -1.5 +175
O/U: MILWAUKEE 7.5 -110 —– CINCINNATI 7.5 -110
Pitchers: MILWAUKEE – M Estrada (R) vs CINCINNATI – H Bailey (R)
Game Date: Thursday,May 01 2014 6:10 PM
Last Game: lost 3 – 9 vs St Louis Cardinals
Current Game: Cincinnati Reds
Next Game: At CINCINNATI
Stats & Trends: MILWAUKEE vs. CINCINNATI
PVI Rating on Winning: 71.43%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 60.71%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 36.74%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 3 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 52%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 42%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.95
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.45
Road Team
(MILWAUKEE)
When MILWAUKEE is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When MILWAUKEE is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 1-0 42-54 71.88 1-0-0 53-43-0 22.4
vs Division opponent 5-2 117-145 58.05 6-1-0 123-121-18 31.94
vs Conference opponent 3-1 52-63 60.11 3-1-0 48-59-8 40.07
Playing in the month of May (since 1996) 90-142 0-0 19.4 112-112-8 0-0-0 25
Playing on Thursday 1-1 27-18 55 2-0-0 25-19-1 21.59
Played as road Underdog 8-1 126-191 64.32 6-3-0 137-159-21 43.53
After a Division Game 5-2 109-140 57.61 6-1-0 120-112-17 31.29
After a Conference Game 4-0 54-68 72.13 3-1-0 47-66-9 41.71
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 5-2 43-40 61.62 6-1-0 34-46-3 35.9
vs NL Conference Opponent 8-3 111-131 59.3 9-2-0 101-120-21 36.24
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 5-2 44-42 61.3 6-1-0 37-43-6 34.02
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 9-2 104-128 63.33 9-2-0 100-112-20 35.51
Coming off 3 over 1-0 15-16 74.2 0-1-0 12-18-1 80
Coming off a lost 4-0 121-150 72.33 3-1-0 106-145-20 41.39
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog (since 1996) 101-125 57-85 42.42 92-126-8 49-84-9 60.48
During a night game 7-1 127-161 65.8 8-0-0 133-134-21 25.1
Coming off a 3 road trip 1-0 3-4 71.43 0-1-0 2-5-0 85.72
Coming off a 6 runs loss (since 1996) 14-15 3-9 36.64 12-15-2 7-5-0 48.62
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game (since 1996) 88-90 25-32 46.65 79-89-10 26-29-2 52.86
Coming off a score 9 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 24-28 7-5 52.24 29-22-1 7-4-1 39.75
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 6-3 57-93 52.34 7-2-0 65-78-7 38.39
vs CINCINNATI (since 1996) 57-75 5-8 40.82 64-59-9 5-7-1 53.15
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 2-0 23-20 76.75 2-0-0 16-21-6 28.38
Coming off a day game 5-2 68-98 56.2 5-2-0 78-80-8 39.6
Coming off a series win (since 1996) 72-88 6-4 52.5 67-84-9 7-1-2 34.07
Last 30 days 11-3 188-246 60.95 10-4-0 191-216-27 40.82
Last 45 days 11-3 196-254 61.07 10-4-0 199-223-28 40.71
Last 60 days 11-3 196-254 61.07 10-4-0 199-223-28 40.71
Last 90 days 11-3 196-254 61.07 10-4-0 199-223-28 40.71
Vs. Right handed pitchers 8-3 136-192 57.1 8-3-0 144-164-20 40.26
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 10-3 143-173 61.09 10-3-0 138-157-21 38.15
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 4-0 81-102 72.13 3-1-0 70-105-8 42.5
TEAM: MILWAUKEE
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.93 3.28
Home Games Avg 2.73 2.53
Road Games Avg 5.21 4.07
Last 3 Games Avg 4.33 5.33
Last 5 Games Avg 3.6 4.6
Last 10 Games Avg 3.6 3.4
vs. Division Games Avg 3.63 4
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.73 3.35
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 5.67 2.67
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.56 3.67
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.33 3
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.76 3.12
After a Win Games Avg 3.75 3.65
After a Lost Games Avg 3.86 2.57
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.82 3.55
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 5 3
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.44 3.78
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.67 2.5
After an Over Games Avg 4.7 3.7
After an Under Games Avg 3.61 3.22
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
3.95 3.45
CINCINNATITeam Name: CINCINNATI(Home Team)
Money Line: CINCINNATI -120 vs MILWAUKEE +110
Spread Line: CINCINNATI -1.5 +175 —– MILWAUKEE +1.5 -210
O/U: CINCINNATI 7.5 -110 —– MILWAUKEE 7.5 -110
Pitchers: CINCINNATI – H Bailey (R) vs MILWAUKEE – M Estrada (R)
Game Date: Thursday,May 01 2014 6:10 PM
Last Game: lost 9 – 4 vs Chicago Cubs
Current Game: Milwaukee Brewers
Next Game: Vs. MILWAUKEE
Stats & Trends: CINCINNATI vs. MILWAUKEE
PVI Rating on Winning: 46.15%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 53.85%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 40.81%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 42%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 42%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.4
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.22
Home Team
(CINCINNATI)
When CINCINNATI is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When CINCINNATI is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 2-5 47-49 38.77 4-3-0 53-43-0 43.83
vs Division opponent 4-6 118-144 42.52 4-5-1 123-121-18 52.58
vs Conference opponent (since 1996) 304-307 55-60 48.79 291-288-32 48-59-8 52.44
Playing in the month of May (since 1996) 133-111 0-0 27.26 125-107-12 0-0-0 23.06
Playing on Thursday 0-1 15-30 16.67 1-0-0 25-19-1 21.59
Played as home Favorite 4-5 154-149 47.64 5-3-1 137-145-21 44.46
After a Division Game 4-4 116-136 48.02 3-4-1 118-116-18 53.36
After a Conference Game 0-1 60-64 24.2 0-1-0 50-66-8 78.45
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 4-6 45-49 43.94 4-5-1 35-53-6 57.9
vs NL Conference Opponent 4-6 110-133 42.64 4-5-1 97-125-21 55.94
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 4-4 43-45 49.43 3-4-1 32-49-7 58.82
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 4-5 109-127 45.32 3-5-1 92-123-21 59.86
Coming off 1 over 0-1 48-55 23.3 1-0-0 48-47-8 24.74
Coming off a lost 4-5 129-127 47.42 3-5-1 117-125-14 57.08
Coming off a Home Lost as a Favorite 2-2 63-53 52.16 2-1-1 54-57-5 42.34
During a night game 3-5 125-163 40.45 3-4-1 133-134-21 53.67
Coming off a 4 home stand (since 1996) 5-8 2-6 31.73 6-6-1 2-5-1 60.72
Coming off a 5 runs loss (since 1996) 28-32 9-7 51.46 29-28-3 8-8-0 49.56
Coming off a score 4 runs FOR in last game 0-1 22-30 21.16 0-1-0 22-25-5 76.6
Coming off a score 9 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 33-27 3-7 42.5 31-25-4 4-6-0 52.32
vs. opponent with a 71% to 80% winning % (since 1996) 4-5 12-14 45.3 6-3-0 14-11-1 38.67
vs MILWAUKEE (since 1996) 74-58 2-12 35.18 64-59-9 10-4-0 38.27
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 3-2 25-23 56.04 2-2-1 19-27-2 54.35
Coming off a game that went over 0-1 48-55 23.3 1-0-0 48-47-8 24.74
Coming off a night game 3-4 126-157 43.69 3-3-1 122-142-19 51.9
Coming off a series loss (since 1996) 114-143 37-35 47.88 130-113-14 34-31-7 47.1
Last 30 days 5-7 199-235 43.76 5-6-1 191-216-27 53.81
Last 45 days 5-8 207-243 42.23 5-7-1 199-223-28 55.59
Last 60 days 5-8 207-243 42.23 5-7-1 199-223-28 55.59
Last 90 days 5-8 207-243 42.23 5-7-1 199-223-28 55.59
Vs. Right handed pitchers 3-6 147-174 39.56 3-5-1 147-153-21 56.75
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 5-6 140-167 45.53 4-6-1 133-159-15 57.23
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 3-3 84-94 48.6 2-3-1 77-92-9 57.22
TEAM: CINCINNATI
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.52 3.17
Home Games Avg 3.46 2.92
Road Games Avg 3.56 3.38
Last 3 Games Avg 2.33 3.67
Last 5 Games Avg 1.4 2.4
Last 10 Games Avg 2.3 2.5
vs. Division Games Avg 3.8 3.2
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.42 3.27
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4.33 2.33
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.67 3.33
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.1 3.3
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.7 2.9
After a Win Games Avg 3.75 3.67
After a Lost Games Avg 3.31 2.38
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.43 4.14
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3 2.44
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 4.2 3
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4 2.25
After an Over Games Avg 4.55 3.36
After an Under Games Avg 3 2.6
After a Push Games Avg 3.5 7.5
3.4 3.22

 

So putting history aside, the Raymond Report shows that Milwaukee is on their game and that they have every opportunity to beat the Reds tonight. That said, we have to ask ourselves, “how much is history worth?”

This contest is HISTORY vs REAL-TIME and anyone that is into sports gambling should have their dial tuned to this game because this is fascinating business!

 

The Brewers are paying near even odds, and we expect a very close matchup here tonight. The educational value on the question of Batter vs Pitcher history stacking up against real-time AVG and ERA is on display and is showcased in tonight’s situation. Our blog’s 8-0 streak is on the line tonight and we can only hope that real-time wins, and MILWAUKEE can edge out a win here.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: MILWAUKEE to win 4-3.

 

 

 

 

 

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