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Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) vs. Houston Astros (Peacock) – Preview May 2nd, 2014

Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners 
SIDE :-1878.75
Vs.Date: 2014-05-02
Time: 19:10:00

Generated from 15 Previous Games

Houston Astros
Houston Astros
O/U :7.5
3.79 = 12.54

 

Yesterday’s Recap:

Ultimately the ‘Historical vs Real-Time’ pitching battle ended in a 3-3 tie and we’re left still wondering whether a strong versus record trumps a strong real-time record or if it’s vice versa.

One thing was crystal clear…ONCE AGAIN…fading ATS Stats when it was making a powerful historical case for Cincinnati to win, was a bad idea.

The Reds took down the Brewers just like ATS Stats said they would. This is the reason we recommended only played a half unit on The Brewers, and we were wise to do so.

 

For today, we have a board that is chalk full of goodies. So let’s get started because there is a ton to look at. So much to do, so little time!

Let’s look at it:

PITCHING

Starting the bump for Seattle today is Felix Hernandez:

  • Historically Hernandez has 18 at bats vs HOU batters OVER a .300 avg (4/12 batters)
  • Historically Hernandez has 36 at bats vs HOU batters UNDER a .300 avg (8/12 batters)

Starting on the mound for Houston today is Brad Peacock:

  • Historically, Peacock has 22 at bats vs SEA batters OVER a .300 avg (3/7 batters)
  • Historically, Peacock has 16 at bats vs SEA batters UNDER a .300 avg (4/7 batters)

 

  • Hernandez is throwing a very strong 2.40ERA
  • Hernandez is throwing an elite 1.69ERA on the road.
  • Hernandez is throwing a rock-solid 2.70ERA L3G
  • Peacock is throwing a poor 5.95ERA this season.
  • Peacock is throwing a mediocre 4.50ERA at home.
  • Peacock is throwing a mediocre 4.54ERA L3G

Peacock only has 19.7IP so it’s tough to be solid on how he might show up tonight, but from what we’ve seen, he’s nothing that we should be particularly concerned about.

  • In his last outing, Hernandez faced TEX where he allowed only 5 hits vs 18th placed (OPS). He allowed 3ER and only struck out 4 batters. Ramirez is not throwing his best L3G, but at the end of the day, we should see at least a reasonable outing from Hernandez tonight.
  • In his last outing, Peacock faced TEX where he allowed only 5 hits vs 4th placed (OPS). He allowed 3ER and only struck out 3 batters. He’s been lucky to last 5 innings, and was pulled after 3.3 on the 15th. At the end of the day, over the last 3 games, Peacock is quite comparable to Hernandez except the big difference here is that on average he lasts about 2 innings less compared to Hernandez.

After assessing these pitchers’ recent games, it’s clear that with Peacock lasting barely 1/2 a game, that Houston’s bullpen will be the key to our pick.

Did you know:

  • HERNANDEZ is 2-2 vs HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.16 and a WHIP of 1.280.
  • PEACOCK is 2-2 vs SEATTLE with an ERA of 7.20 and a WHIP of 1.500.

 

BATTING

  • SEA is batting 27th in the league with a .653OPS in the Regular Season so far.
    SEA is averaging 4.3 runs on the road this season.
    SEA is averaging 3.4 vs RH Starters.
     
  • HOU is batting 28th in the league with a .669OPS in the Regular Season so far.
    HOU is averaging 3.1 runs at home this season.
    HOU is averaging 3.4 vs RH Starters.

These bats are basically equal with the Mariners having a slight edge but the pitching and bullpen matchups should prove to make the case and give Seattle value.

 

BULLPEN

  • The Mariners have a normal 3.33ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen is a worthy 3.37ERA on the road.
     
  • The Astros have a vulnerable 5.86ERA in the pen so far this season.
    Their pen is a horrific 6.23ERA at home.

Mariners will have their best chance to take this win in the last 3 innings. With Peacock usually stepping off after 5 innings, as long as the Mariners are not behind by 3 or more, they’ll have every chance to win this in the back 3 or 4 innings again the Astros’ bullpen.

 

BONUS CONSIDERATION:

  • SEA and HOU are about equal at hittin, so this game is all on the Mariners’ pitching staff to win.
  • Historically Hernandez has pitched very well vs HOU.
  • Historically Peacock has pitched very poorly vs SEA.

 

 

ATS STATS SIDES

Historical considerations that support the Seattle prediction:

When SEATTLE played as Favourite- in the month of May: SU 13-7-0

When SEATTLE played as Road Favourite- With a spread between 180 and 200: SU 12-8-0

When SEATTLE team Played as road team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – During the month of May: SU 46-24-0

When SEATTLE Played as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With 2 Under or Less – Won Last Game by 2 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G: SU8 – 5 – 0

When ANY MLB (Seattle) Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – 1st game of a series – Coming off vs. American League opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a series win – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog: SU 42-25-0

When ANY MLB (Seattle) Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off vs. American League opponent – Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent – Coming off a 2 game under: SU 60-34-0

When ANY MLB (Seattle) Team played as a -180 to -200 Road Favorite – Vs AL Conference – Coming off a night game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a series win: SU 17-7-0

When ANY MLB (Seattle) Team played as a -180 to -200 Road Favorite – Coming off vs. American League opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog: SU 27-6-0

When HOUSTON Played as home team as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – Lost Last Game by 7 Runs or Less: SU28 – 66 – 0

When HOUSTON played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G: SU94 – 183 – 0

When HOUSTON Played as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G: SU39 – 94 – 0

When HOUSTON played as Home or Away Team- Vs AL WEST: SU 31-64-5

When HOUSTON played as Underdog- Vs AL WEST: SU 6-15-4

When HOUSTON team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a night game – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off a Home loss: SU 8-17-0

When HOUSTON team played as a Home team – Last 2 years – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Home loss: SU 16-33-0

When HOUSTON team Played as home team as a Underdog – Vs AL Conference – Vs. Right handed pitchers: SU 23-64-0

When HOUSTON team Played as home team as a Underdog – During a night game – Vs AL WEST opponent: SU 11-30-0

When HOUSTON team Played as home team as a Underdog – Last 2 years – Playing on Friday: SU 7-21-0

When HOUSTON team Played as home team as a Underdog – Playing on Friday – Vs. Right handed pitchers: SU 17-41-0

When HOUSTON team Played as home team as a Underdog – Vs AL Conference – Before a conference game: SU 4-13-0

 

Historical considerations that threaten the Seattle prediction:

When HOUSTON team played as a Home team – After a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Loss vs. NL EAST opponent: SU 46-24-0

When HOUSTON team played as a Home team – After a conference game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog – Coming off a 2 game losing streak: SU 10-6-0

When HOUSTON team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – During the month of May – Coming off a Loss vs. NL EAST opponent – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher: SU 12-7-0

When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Last 5 years – 1st game of a series – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a Loss vs. NL EAST opponent – Coming off a 2 game losing streak: SU 33-19-0

When SEATTLE team played as a road team – During the month of May – Vs Division Opponent: SU 14-34-0

When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team – Vs AL Conference – Last 2 years – Before a conference game – Scored 4 or more runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a 2 game under: SU 8-31-0

 

 

ATS STATS TOTALS

Historical considerations that suggest this to go OVER:

When HOUSTON played as Home or Away Team- in the month of May OU: 15-10-10
When HOUSTON team played as a Home team – During a night game – Vs AL WEST opponent – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 2 game losing streak OU: 7-4-0
When SEATTLE team Played as road team as a Favorite – Playing on Friday – Vs AL WEST opponent OU: 9-5-0
When SEATTLE team played as a -180 to -200 road Favorite – After a conference game – During a night game OU: 6-4-1
When SEATTLE team played as a road team – During the month of May – Vs Division Opponent OU: 28-17-3
When HOUSTON team Played as home team as a Underdog – During a night game – Vs AL WEST opponent OU: 24-16-1
When HOUSTON Played as a Underdog – During Last 5 Years – With 3 Under OU: 21 – 14 – 3

 

Historical considerations that suggest this to go UNDER:

When SEATTLE played as Road Team- Vs AL WEST OU: 8-17-0
When SEATTLE played as Road Favourite- Vs AL WEST OU: 12-18-0
When SEATTLE played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 6 and 7 OU: 6-9-0
When SEATTLE played as Road Favourite- With a spread between 180 and 200 OU: 7-11-2
When SEATTLE played as Road Team- in the month of May OU: 17-21-2
When SEATTLE played as Home or Away Team- Vs HOUSTON OU: 12-21-1
When HOUSTON played as Underdog- Vs SEATTLE OU: 7-12-12
When SEATTLE team Played as Road team as a Favorite – After a non division game – During a night game – Scored 4 or more runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent OU: 11-27-2
When SEATTLE team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Before a division game – Allowed 2 runs or less AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a 1 game win OU: 4-7-0
When SEATTLE team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs AL Conference – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Road win – Coming off a 2 run win OU: 6-13-1
When HOUSTON team played as a Home team – During the month of May – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog – Coming off a 2 game losing streak OU: 2-9-0
When HOUSTON team played as a Home team – After a non division game – During the month of May – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off a Home loss OU: 6-13-0
When HOUSTON team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a night game – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off a Home loss OU: 10-15-0
When HOUSTON team played as a Home team – After a conference game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog – Coming off a 2 game losing streak OU: 5-11-0
When HOUSTON team played as a Home team – During the month of May – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog – Coming off a Home loss OU: 11-21-0
When HOUSTON team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – During the month of May – Coming off a Loss vs. NL EAST opponent – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher OU: 6-13-0
When HOUSTON team Played as Home team as a Underdog – After a conference game – After a non division game – Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series – Coming off a Home loss OU: 10-17-2
When HOUSTON team Played as home team as a Underdog – 1st game of a series – Vs Division Opponent OU: 21-35-2
When HOUSTON team Played as home team as a Underdog – Playing on Friday – Vs. Right handed pitchers OU: 22-33-3
When HOUSTON team Played as home team as a Underdog – Vs AL Conference – Before a conference game OU: 4-13-0
When HOUSTON team Played as home team as a Underdog – Playing on Friday – Vs Division Opponent OU: 10-16-1
When ANY MLB Team played as a 160 to 180 Home Underdog – Playing on Friday – After a conference game – During a night game – Allowed 7 runs or less AGAINST in their last game OU: 10-27-2
When ANY MLB Team played as a -180 to -200 Road Favorite – Vs AL Conference – Coming off a night game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a series win OU: 8-15-1

 

SEA@HOU also looks extremly likely to go under. Between these teams having some of the worst bats in the league, and given that it’s Hernandez on the bump, real-time and historical consideration say this goes UNDER the total.

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

Since this is already lengthy, let’s just say that the Raymond Report considers these teams to be about even in this position here tonight. This is bad news for us because we prefer to see the RR clearly in favour of our pick just like we do with ATS.

 

 

At -180, Seattle is considered high chalk and it’s tough to say if there is truly value here. Betting ‘to win’ wagers, I would play this pick in a week position where we’re only a 1/3 or a 1/2 unit on the play. Kick in the total wager and maybe we just go halfsies on both. It’ll be double exciting to watch and that’s why we’ve brought you this pick today.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: SEATTLE to win 4-3.
Tonight’s Prediction: SEA@HOU goes u7.5.

 

 

 

 

 

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