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Los Angeles Dodgers (Maholm) vs. Miami Marlins (Turner)

Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 
SIDE :-110

4.36

Vs.

Date: 2014-05-03
Time: 18:10:00

Generated from 72 Previous Games

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
O/U :8.5

3.55 = 7.91

 

Cappers Corner does not specialize in totals…but with that said…if at first you don’t succeed…try again.

So in the name of fighting spirit, we are jumping in with both feet bringing you a full unit total play today!

Here is the pick that we find interesting and here is why:

 

PITCHING

Starting the bump for Los Angeles today is Paul Maholm:

  • Historically, Maholm has 52AB across 6/9 MIA batters over a .300 AVG.
  • Historically, Maholm has 21AB across 3/9 MIAbatters under a .300 AVG.
  • Maholm is throwing 4.74ERA all games.
  • Maholm is throwing 1.50ERAon the road.
  • Maholm is throwing 3.50ERA L3G.

 

Starting the bump for Miami today is Jacob Turner:

  • Historically, Turner has 11AB across 4/5 LAD batters over a .300 AVG.
  • Historically, Turner has 3AB across 1/5 LAD batters under a .300 AVG.
  • Turner is throwing a terrible 7.50ERA this season.
  • Turner is throwing a career-low  7.50ERA at home.
  • Turner is throwing a poor  7.50ERA L3G.

 

Maholm is a ‘sometimes hot, sometimes not’ type of pitcher, and so unless he throws his best game, we’re looking at a high probability of this contest going over the total.

 

Turner is very much untested, but from what we’ve seen, he appears fairly vulnerable and it might be a good chance for us to cash in on that considering he’s up against a top 10 batting team.

 

 

 

Did you know:

  • 8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

 

BATTING

  • LAD is top 10 in league in hitting (OPS)
  • MIAMI is top 5 in league in hitting (OPS)

 

BULLPEN

  • LAD has a vulnerable bullpen at 3.64ERA all games, and 4.50ERA on the road.
  • MIA has a ‘good but not great’ bullpen at 3.80ERA all games, and 2.66ERA at home.

 

ATS STATS

ATS historical considerations that SUPPORT the OVER:

When MAHOLM PAUL ‘s Team played as Road Team- With a spread between 100 and 120 O/U/P: 23-15-2
When MAHOLM PAUL ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- With a spread between 100 and 120 O/U/P: 9-5-1
When MIAMI played as Home or Away Team- Vs LOS ANGELES O/U/P: 16-5-4
When MIAMI played as Underdog- Vs LOS ANGELES O/U/P: 12-4-4
When MIAMI played as Home Underdog- Vs NL West Division O/U/P: 8-5-2
When LOS ANGELES team played as a Road team – During a night game – Playing on Saturday – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 game loss O/U/P: 12-7-2
When LOS ANGELES team played as a Road team – During a night game – During the month of May – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series O/U/P: 21-11-1
When MIAMI team played as a Home team – After a non division game – Playing on Saturday – Coming off a Home win as a Underdog – Coming off a 1 game win O/U/P: 8-2-1
When MIAMI team Played as Home team as a Underdog – During the month of May – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Home win O/U/P: 7-4-1
When MIAMI team played as a Home team – During the month of May – After a non division game – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a 1 game win O/U/P: 9-2-0
When MIAMI team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Before a non division game – Coming off 1 over – Scored 6 or less runs FOR in their last game O/U/P: 44-28-4
When MIAMI team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Playing on Saturday – During a night game – Coming off a Home win as a Underdog – Coming off a Home win O/U/P: 11-6-1
When LOS ANGELES team played as a 100 to -120 road Favorite – During a night game – Vs Non Division Opponent O/U/P: 23-15-1
When MIAMI team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – During a night game – During the month of May O/U/P: 20-12-1
When MIAMI team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – Last 2 years – Vs Non Division Opponent O/U/P: 13-6-2
When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Vs NL EAST opponent – Playing on Saturday – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off a 3 game over – Coming off a Loss vs. NL EAST opponent O/U/P: 12-7-0
When MIAMI Played as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – With 1 Over or Less O/U/P: 44 – 25 – 5

 

 

ATS historical considerations that THREATEN the OVER:

 

When LOS ANGELES team played as a Road team – Vs NL Conference – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a 3 game over O/U/P: 7-11-3

 

When MIAMI team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs NL Conference – Vs NL WEST opponent – Coming off a Home win as a Underdog – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent O/U/P: 10-20-1

 

When MIAMI team Played as home team as a Underdog – During the month of May – Vs. Left handed pitchers O/U/P: 9-15-3

 

When MIAMI team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – After a non division game – Vs NL WEST opponent O/U/P: 18-27-5

 

When LOS ANGELES Played as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – With 3 Over or More O/U/P: 5 – 9 – 3

 

When LOS ANGELES played as a road team – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 4 Win 3 Lost in L7G O/U/P: 14 – 22 – 3

 

So as we see, ATS backsup the realtime trends and for that reason, we’re recommending a full unit play on the total for the game set at 8.5.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: LAD @ MIA to cover the o6.5 total.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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