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Washington Nationals (Gonzalez) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Hernandez)

Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 
SIDE :-1374.14
Vs.Date: 2014-05-04
Time: 14:05:00

Generated from 35 Previous Games

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
O/U :7.5
3.22 = 7.36

 

Value is the name of the game. To find this kind of unbalance with one team being clearly better is a little bit of a rarity…after all…if it was easy, then books wouldn’t earn. So let’s get it while the getting is good. This game has WASHINGTON Power Ranked at -153 so we get excellent purchase on the ML odds which are set at -136.

Let’s look at it:

PITCHING

Starting on the bump today for the Nationals is Gio Gonzalez:

  • Gonzalez has given up 15AB vs PHI hitters over .300AVG
  • Gonzalez has given up 100AB vs PHI hitters over .300AVG
  • Gonzalez is 3.25ERA all games this season.
  • Gonzalez is 5.00ERA on the road this season.
  • Gonzalez is 3.00ERA L3G.

Starting on the bump today for the Phillies is Roberto Hernandez:

  • Hernandez has too few AB vs these WSH hitters.
  • Hernandez is 5.74ERA all games this season. (only 10.7IP)
  • Hernandez is 3.97ERA at home.

 

BATTING

  • Washington is 10th in the league with a .739OPS.
  • Washington is 5.2 runs/game on the road.
  • Washington is 5.8 runs/game against LH pitchers.
  • Philadelphia is 18th in the league with a .700OPS.
  • Philadelphia is 3.6 runs/game at home.
  • Philadelphia is 3.4 runs/game against LH pitchers.

 

BULLPEN

  • Washington bullpen is 1.99ERA all games.
  • Washington bullpen is 2.38ERA on the road.
  • Philadelphia bullpen is 4.99ERA all games.
  • Philadelphia bullpen is 5.92 at home.

 

We look for layered advantages, and Washington has exactly. Even if the bottom falls out on any one of these areas for Washington, they’ll still have chances. The same can’t be said for Philadelphia.

 

ATS STATS

Both teams with chances although historically PHILLY stands better in this position.
Fading ATS Stats when it is crystal clear is never advised, but in this case, ATS is not making a strong case for Philly so we might over look it for the value.

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB

Game Date – 2014-05-04
Road Team :- (3405) WASHINGTON
Home Team :- (3406 )PHILADELPHIA

 

WASHINGTONTeam Name: WASHINGTON(Road Team)
Money Line: WASHINGTON -110 vs PHILADELPHIA +100
Spread Line: WASHINGTON —– PHILADELPHIA
O/U: WASHINGTON 7 -125 —– PHILADELPHIA 7 +105
Pitchers: WASHINGTON – G Gonzalez (L) vs PHILADELPHIA – C Hamels (L)
Game Date: Sunday,May 04 2014 2:05 PM
Last Game: lost 2 – 7 vs Philadelphia Phillies
Current Game: Philadelphia Phillies
Next Game: Vs. LOS ANGELES
Stats & Trends: WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
PVI Rating on Winning: 56.67%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 39.29%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 40.82%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 47%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 41%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.51
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.75
Road Team
(WASHINGTON)
When WASHINGTON is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When WASHINGTON is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 2-4 43-53 39.06 5-1-0 41-42-13 33.64
vs Division opponent 6-5 125-157 49.44 10-1-0 135-127-20 28.78
vs Conference opponent 2-0 58-70 72.66 0-2-0 54-65-9 77.31
Playing in the month of May 1-1 17-25 45.24 2-0-0 23-16-3 20.52
Playing on Sunday 0-1 24-40 18.75 1-0-0 22-39-3 31.97
Played as road Favorite 6-3 75-70 59.2 6-3-0 72-66-7 40.58
After a Division Game 4-5 117-154 43.81 8-1-0 132-120-19 29.37
After a Conference Game 2-0 59-76 71.85 0-2-0 54-71-10 78.4
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 6-5 33-61 44.83 10-1-0 38-44-12 31.38
vs NL Conference Opponent 8-5 119-146 53.23 10-3-0 117-126-22 37.47
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 4-5 29-53 39.91 8-1-0 36-38-8 31.23
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 7-5 113-140 51.5 9-3-0 113-119-21 38.15
Coming off 2 over 0-1 22-29 21.57 1-0-0 32-17-2 17.35
Coming off a lost 4-2 128-165 55.18 5-1-0 117-154-22 36.75
Coming off a Road Lost as a Favorite 2-0 34-32 75.76 2-0-0 30-33-3 26.19
During a day game 2-1 71-100 54.1 3-0-0 70-93-8 28.53
Coming off a 4 road trip (since 1996) 5-8 1-5 27.57 6-6-1 1-4-1 65
Coming off a 5 runs loss (since 1996) 25-40 4-4 44.23 24-37-4 3-5-0 61.58
Coming off a score 2 runs FOR in last game 3-0 26-27 74.53 2-1-0 27-24-2 40.2
Coming off a score 7 runs AGAINST in last game 1-1 14-18 46.88 1-1-0 13-17-2 53.34
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 1-1 65-108 43.79 2-0-0 75-88-10 27
vs PHILADELPHIA (since 1996) 56-89 7-8 42.65 66-72-7 8-6-1 47.52
Coming off a Lost over NL EAST division opponent 2-2 19-34 42.93 4-0-0 20-27-6 28.73
Coming off a night game 4-4 135-169 47.21 7-1-0 132-150-22 32.85
Split 1st 2 games of a series 1-0 36-45 72.22 1-0-0 34-45-2 28.48
Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 1-1 25 2-0-0 0
Last 30 days 5-5 185-255 46.03 8-2-0 202-210-28 35.49
Last 45 days 8-5 213-279 52.42 10-3-0 222-239-31 37.46
Last 60 days 8-5 213-279 52.42 10-3-0 222-239-31 37.46
Last 90 days 8-5 213-279 52.42 10-3-0 222-239-31 37.46
Vs. Left handed pitchers 3-1 67-67 62.5 3-1-0 63-62-9 37.3
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 4-5 158-194 44.67 8-1-0 157-171-24 31.62
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 3-1 88-116 59.07 3-1-0 80-113-11 41.78
TEAM: WASHINGTON
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.43 3.93
Home Games Avg 3.82 3.29
Road Games Avg 5.23 4.77
Last 3 Games Avg 4.67 3.33
Last 5 Games Avg 4 3.4
Last 10 Games Avg 4.5 3.3
vs. Division Games Avg 4.94 4.47
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.52 4
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4 3.6
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 4.38 4.15
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.22 4.67
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.75 2.75
After a Win Games Avg 4.24 3.82
After a Lost Games Avg 4.33 3.83
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.75 4.25
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 5 5.25
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 4.67 3.44
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4 3.13
After an Over Games Avg 3.75 4.25
After an Under Games Avg 4.55 3.64
After a Push Games Avg 7 1.5
4.51 3.75
PHILADELPHIATeam Name: PHILADELPHIA(Home Team)
Money Line: PHILADELPHIA +100 vs WASHINGTON -110
Spread Line: PHILADELPHIA —– WASHINGTON
O/U: PHILADELPHIA 7 +105 —– WASHINGTON 7 -125
Pitchers: PHILADELPHIA – C Hamels (L) vs WASHINGTON – G Gonzalez (L)
Game Date: Sunday,May 04 2014 2:05 PM
Last Game: win 2 – 7 vs Washington Nationals
Current Game: Washington Nationals
Next Game: Vs. TORONTO
Stats & Trends: PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
PVI Rating on Winning: 50%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 40%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 55.1%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 2 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 44%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 44%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.68
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.87
Home Team
(PHILADELPHIA)
When PHILADELPHIA is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When PHILADELPHIA is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 1-3 50-46 38.54 1-2-1 41-42-13 58.64
vs Division opponent 5-6 128-154 45.42 5-5-1 135-127-20 49.24
vs Conference opponent 0-4 62-66 24.22 3-1-0 54-65-9 39.81
Playing in the month of May 1-1 21-21 50 2-0-0 23-16-3 20.52
Playing on Sunday 1-0 36-28 78.13 0-1-0 22-39-3 81.97
Played as home Underdog 3-4 60-99 40.3 5-2-0 72-80-7 40.6
After a Division Game 4-5 128-144 45.75 4-5-0 129-123-20 52.19
After a Conference Game 0-4 68-69 24.82 3-1-0 57-71-9 40.24
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 5-6 35-48 43.81 5-5-1 36-37-10 50.34
vs NL Conference Opponent 5-10 121-144 39.5 8-6-1 110-133-22 48.8
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 4-5 38-49 44.06 4-5-0 39-40-8 53.1
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 5-10 121-139 39.94 8-6-1 106-132-22 49.16
Coming off 2 over 0-1 27-22 27.55 1-0-0 29-19-1 19.79
Coming off a win 2-2 85-122 45.53 2-1-1 89-103-15 43.49
Coming off a Home Win as a Underdog 1-0 17-32 67.35 1-0-0 23-22-4 24.45
During a day game 2-2 88-83 50.73 1-3-0 70-93-8 66.03
Coming off a 4 home stand (since 1996) 13-7 0-2 32.5 6-12-2 1-1-0 58.34
Coming off a 5 runs win (since 1996) 35-15 4-5 57.22 25-22-3 6-3-0 40.07
Coming off a score 7 runs FOR in last game (since 1996) 56-51 12-19 45.53 43-59-5 14-16-1 55.59
Coming off a score 2 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 100-74 27-31 52.01 85-81-8 24-32-2 52.97
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 1-3 42-50 35.33 2-1-1 38-45-9 43.78
vs WASHINGTON (since 1996) 89-56 5-8 49.92 66-72-7 10-3-0 37.63
Coming off a Win over NL EAST division opponent 2-1 12-13 57.34 2-1-0 16-8-1 33.33
Coming off a night game 5-5 145-178 47.45 5-5-0 144-157-22 51.08
Split 1st 2 games of a series 0-2 35-46 21.61 1-1-0 34-45-2 53.48
Coming off a win in game 2 of a series 1-0 22-37 68.65 0-1-0 26-30-3 76.79
Last 30 days 5-10 207-233 40.19 8-6-1 202-210-28 46.92
Last 45 days 5-10 228-264 39.84 8-6-1 222-239-31 47.35
Last 60 days 5-10 228-264 39.84 8-6-1 222-239-31 47.35
Last 90 days 5-10 228-264 39.84 8-6-1 222-239-31 47.35
Vs. Left handed pitchers 1-1 64-74 48.19 0-1-1 57-72-9 77.91
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 3-5 155-185 41.55 5-2-1 151-171-18 40.84
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 2-2 62-87 45.81 2-1-1 67-69-13 42.04
TEAM: PHILADELPHIA
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.77 4.16
Home Games Avg 2.87 3.87
Road Games Avg 4.63 4.44
Last 3 Games Avg 3.33 2.33
Last 5 Games Avg 2.6 2.6
Last 10 Games Avg 3.5 3.3
vs. Division Games Avg 3 3
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.5 4
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 6.33 5.67
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.92 5.5
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3 2.77
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 5.17 4.5
After a Win Games Avg 3.23 4.38
After a Lost Games Avg 3.86 3.29
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.89 3.22
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.86 3.71
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 4 7
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 2.86 2.86
After an Over Games Avg 3.64 2.93
After an Under Games Avg 3.31 5.46
After a Push Games Avg 3 2.33
3.68 3.87

 

Raymond Report describes the real-time edge perfectly. Washington is standing better with at least tangible chances here.

 

 

Afternoon Prediction: WASHINGTON to win 5-3.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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