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New York Mets (Colon) vs. Miami Marlins (Alverez) – Preview May 6th, 2014

New York Mets
New York Mets 
O/U :7.54.13
Vs.Date: 2014-05-06
Time: 18:10:00Generated from 46 Previous Games
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
SIDE :-120
4.06 = 8.19

 

Today’s pick requires a tiny fade against ATS Stats; however, it’s justified by a Raymond Report that puts this pick into proportion.

Let’s look at it:

PITCHING

Starting on the bump today for the Mets is Bartolo Colon:

  • Colon has only 17AB across 3 batters, this is not enough history to make a comment or find a trend.
  • Colon is 5.64ERA all games this season.
  • Colon is 8.64ERA on the road this season.
  • Colon is 5.30ERA L3G.

Starting on the bump today for the Marlins is Henderson Alvarez:

  • Alvarez has given up 12AB vs 3/9 CWS hitters over .300AVG.
  • Alvarez has given up 40AB vs 6/9 CWS hitters under .300AVG.
  • Alvarez is 3.28ERA all games this season.
  • Alvarez is 3.50ERA at home this season.
  • Alvarez is 2.57ERA L3G.

Clearly Alvarez is showing the dominant statistics here.
Unless Colon grows a brain overnight, (it wouldn’t be the first time), then Miami should at least enjoy the bump advantage heading into the 7th inning.

Alvarez gave up an inordinate amount of hits (10) in his last outing vs the mediocre bats of Atlanta. Unfortunately it’s tough to predict when a pitcher will step outside his ERA sample, but looking at his overall performance, it’s too early to call it a “slump”. Right now, it’s still a “1-off”; especially, considering that Alvarez went the whole 9 inning three games ago when he faced Seattle giving up only 2 hits and 0ER.

 

 

BATTING

  • New York are 29th in the league with a .645OPS.
  • New York is 4.2 runs/game on the road.
  • New York is 4.3 runs/game against RH pitchers.
  • Miami is 2nd in the league with a .767OPS.
  • Miami is 6.0 runs/game at home.
  • Miami is 4.3 runs/game against LH pitchers.

Mets might be in the bottom 5 for batting overall, but we wouldn’t think so looking at their road numbers or their numbers vs RH pitchers. Ultimately, the best time to fade NYM is when they’re facing lefties at home, and they are away vs a righty today…so we can’t afford to look over this point as if “29th in the league” somehow says it all. If “29th” said it all, then NYM wouldn’t have a +.500 record of 16-15. So as always, regardless of the strength of the case, it’s best to show constraint and stick to a single unit here.

In fact, let’s notice a simple, ultra-counter-intuitive fact here and remember it forever:

  • NYM are 29th in league hitting (.OPS) with a W/L record of 16-15.
  • MIA are 2nd in league hitting (.OPS) with a W/L record of 17-15.

If these facts don’t open up our minds…then nothing will.
What’s the morale of the story? Effort and study is needed to know what’s behind the numbers. We can’t afford to look simply and complacently at overall stats and expect them to tell us the whole story!

 

 

BULLPEN

  • New York bullpen is 4.27ERA all games.
  • New York bullpen is 4.07ERA on the road.
  • Miami bullpen is 3.73ERA allE games.
  • Miami bullpen is 2.78ERA at home.

Miami should have the defined edge heading into the back 3 innings.

 

Miami definitely has the pitching, probably the bats and definitely the pen.
At even money, this should be starting to raise our eyebrow.

 

 

ATS STATS

Historical stats that SUPPORT the MIAMI pick:

When MIAMI Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under or More – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G: SU6 – 4 – 0

When MIAMI played as a home team – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under or More – With SU Record of 4 Win 3 Lost in L7G: SU8 – 5 – 0

When NY METS Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Under – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G: SU5 – 10 – 0

 

Historical stats that THREATEN the MIAMI pick:

When NY METS team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog – Total is 7.5 – Vs. Right handed pitchers: SU 17-4-0

When NY METS team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog – Total is 7.5 – Before a conference game: SU 11-1-0

When NY METS played as Road Underdog- With a spread between 100 and 120: SU 19-11-0

When COLON BARTOLO ‘s Team played as Road Underdog- in the month of May: SU 6-4-0

 

When MIAMI team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Playing on Tuesday – Coming off a 1 run lost – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher: SU 3-7-0

When MIAMI team played as a Home team – After a division game – Vs NL EAST opponent – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a 1 run lost: SU 5-17-0

When MIAMI team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite – After a conference game – Before a division game: SU 5-11-0

 

So here we see a historical hole in the Miami pick. We love to roll WITH the historical situations because they describe how a team is likely to show up in a given situation. Time after time after time, when all things seem to point to one team, and they lose in a blowout for “no reason”, time after time we see that ATS Stats has that team in a severe positional disadvantage.

With that said, although The Mets have some historical advantage, “severe” does not describe the ATS Stats that they advantage today.

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB

Game Date – 2014-05-06
Road Team :- (3409) NY METS
Home Team :- (3410 )MIAMI

 

NY METSTeam Name: NY METS(Road Team)
Money Line: NY METS +110 vs MIAMI -120
Spread Line: NY METS +1.5 -200 —– MIAMI -1.5 +170
O/U: NY METS 7.5 -103 —– MIAMI 7.5 -117
Pitchers: NY METS – B Colon (R) vs MIAMI – H Alvarez (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,May 06 2014 6:10 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Miami Marlins
Current Game: Miami Marlins
Next Game: At MIAMI
Stats & Trends: NY METS vs. MIAMI
PVI Rating on Winning: 51.61%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 48%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 73.47%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Push
Road Teams % of winning this game: 39%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 54%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.4
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.4
Road Team
(NY METS)
When NY METS is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When NY METS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 2-2 50-63 47.13 3-1-0 62-51-0 35.07
vs Division opponent 3-7 132-162 37.45 1-6-3 138-134-22 67.49
vs Conference opponent 4-3 63-75 51.4 4-2-1 57-72-9 44.57
Playing in the month of May 1-5 33-40 30.94 3-2-1 32-35-6 46.12
Playing on Tuesday 3-1 34-41 60.17 0-2-2 30-40-5 78.57
Played as road Underdog 8-11 146-219 41.06 8-7-4 153-185-27 50.7
After a Division Game 2-6 124-161 34.26 3-3-2 137-128-20 49.15
After a Conference Game 3-4 65-83 43.39 4-2-1 58-80-10 45.65
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 3-7 36-66 32.65 1-6-3 39-50-13 70.95
vs NL Conference Opponent 7-10 128-157 43.05 5-8-4 124-137-24 57.02
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 2-6 31-56 30.32 3-3-2 38-41-8 50.95
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 6-11 122-149 40.16 5-8-4 119-129-23 56.78
Coming off 1 under 2-4 44-72 35.63 1-3-2 38-70-8 69.91
Coming off a lost 5-8 137-175 41.19 7-5-1 123-166-23 49.56
Coming off a Road Lost as a Favorite 0-1 36-34 25.72 1-0-0 31-36-3 26.87
During a night game 6-11 149-188 39.75 7-6-4 156-156-25 48.08
Coming off a 8 road trip (since 1996) 8-10 0-4 22.22 8-8-2 1-3-0 62.5
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 2-7 60-64 35.31 3-3-3 58-57-9 49.79
vs MIAMI (since 1996) 72-75 5-21 34.11 80-60-7 14-8-4 39.61
Coming off a Lost over NL EAST division opponent 1-5 19-36 25.61 3-2-1 20-29-6 49.59
Coming off a game that went under 0-1 46-65 20.72 1-0-0 53-47-11 23.5
Coming off a Road double header 1-4 9-34 20.47 2-2-1 12-26-5 59.21
Coming off a night game 5-9 142-173 40.4 7-5-2 136-156-23 47.55
Coming off a game 1 of a series 2-2 66-82 47.3 2-1-1 69-67-12 41.3
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 1-1 38-51 46.35 2-0-0 41-40-8 24.69
Last 30 days 8-12 187-254 41.2 8-8-4 193-219-29 51.58
Last 45 days 8-12 229-294 41.9 8-8-4 231-258-34 51.38
Last 60 days 8-12 229-294 41.9 8-8-4 231-258-34 51.38
Last 90 days 8-12 229-294 41.9 8-8-4 231-258-34 51.38
Vs. Right handed pitchers 7-6 156-224 47.45 4-6-3 164-192-24 56.97
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 0-5 53-81 19.78 2-2-1 62-65-7 50.59
Coming off lost vs. Left handed pitcher 3-2 36-43 52.79 4-1-0 31-38-10 37.54
TEAM: NY METS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.36 3.44
Home Games Avg 2.79 3.26
Road Games Avg 3.9 3.6
Last 3 Games Avg 2.67 1.67
Last 5 Games Avg 4.2 5.2
Last 10 Games Avg 4.1 4.1
vs. Division Games Avg 2.5 2.77
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.28 3.03
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4.33 8.33
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.57 4.52
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2 2.18
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 5.4 1.2
After a Win Games Avg 3 2.5
After a Lost Games Avg 3.4 3.73
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.38 2.5
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.57 4.43
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.63 2.5
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 2.38 3.13
After an Over Games Avg 3.77 4.23
After an Under Games Avg 2.94 3.24
After a Push Games Avg 3.13 1.88
3.4 3.4
MIAMITeam Name: MIAMI(Home Team)
Money Line: MIAMI -120 vs NY METS +110
Spread Line: MIAMI -1.5 +170 —– NY METS +1.5 -200
O/U: MIAMI 7.5 -117 —– NY METS 7.5 -103
Pitchers: MIAMI – H Alvarez (R) vs NY METS – B Colon (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,May 06 2014 6:10 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs New York Mets
Current Game: New York Mets
Next Game: Vs. NY METS
Stats & Trends: MIAMI vs. NY METS
PVI Rating on Winning: 53.13%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 34.48%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 30.61%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 1 Push
Home Teams % of winning this game: 50%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 50%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.45
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 2.99
Home Team
(MIAMI)
When MIAMI is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When MIAMI is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 6-3 56-57 58.12 7-2-0 62-51-0 33.68
vs Division opponent 5-6 132-162 45.18 6-3-2 138-134-22 41.3
vs Conference opponent 7-3 67-71 59.28 7-2-1 57-72-9 39.02
Playing in the month of May 4-3 33-40 51.18 4-1-2 32-35-6 36.12
Playing on Tuesday 3-1 27-48 55.5 2-1-1 30-40-5 45.24
Played as home Favorite 7-5 177-174 54.38 6-3-3 153-171-27 43.06
After a Division Game 6-6 136-153 48.53 8-2-2 134-133-22 34.91
After a Conference Game 7-4 76-76 56.82 7-2-2 60-82-10 39.99
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 5-6 37-50 43.99 6-3-2 36-40-11 42.98
vs NL Conference Opponent 12-9 129-151 51.61 13-5-3 114-141-25 41.54
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 6-6 41-51 47.29 8-2-2 39-45-8 36.79
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 12-10 130-146 50.83 13-5-4 110-142-24 42.07
Coming off 1 under 3-5 59-74 40.93 3-5-0 54-74-5 60.16
Coming off a lost 10-5 149-150 58.25 10-3-2 138-144-17 37.07
Coming off a Home Lost as a Underdog 3-1 47-56 60.32 3-1-0 46-50-7 38.54
During a night game 12-9 147-190 50.38 12-5-4 156-156-25 39.71
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 3-4 49-54 45.22 5-1-1 40-53-10 36.83
vs NY METS (since 1996) 74-73 7-13 42.67 80-60-7 8-8-4 46.43
Coming off a Lost over NL EAST division opponent 6-5 28-36 49.15 7-2-2 23-34-7 40.94
Coming off a game that went under 4-2 57-63 57.09 4-0-2 58-52-10 23.64
Coming off a Home double header 4-2 20-26 55.08 3-2-1 15-28-3 52.56
Coming off a night game 11-8 149-185 51.25 10-6-3 148-163-23 44.96
Coming off a game 1 of a series 3-1 68-80 60.48 2-1-1 69-67-12 41.3
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 1-0 31-38 72.47 1-0-0 32-32-5 25
Last 30 days 10-10 204-237 48.13 10-7-3 193-219-29 47.17
Last 45 days 15-11 240-283 51.79 14-8-4 231-258-34 44.56
Last 60 days 15-11 240-283 51.79 14-8-4 231-258-34 44.56
Last 90 days 15-11 240-283 51.79 14-8-4 231-258-34 44.56
Vs. Right handed pitchers 8-9 172-205 46.34 9-7-1 174-180-23 47.3
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 10-10 165-197 47.79 10-7-3 156-185-21 47.72
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 7-5 100-114 52.53 8-2-2 93-109-12 36.98
TEAM: MIAMI
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.64 3.05
Home Games Avg 4.65 2.69
Road Games Avg 2 3.63
Last 3 Games Avg 3 2.33
Last 5 Games Avg 4.4 3.8
Last 10 Games Avg 3.6 2.6
vs. Division Games Avg 2.78 3.15
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.65 3.3
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.6 1.2
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 5.1 5.4
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2.96 2.04
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.17 3.5
After a Win Games Avg 2.76 2.18
After a Lost Games Avg 4 4.2
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 0 0
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.6 4.7
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.13 2.47
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.8 3.2
After an Over Games Avg 3.84 2.95
After an Under Games Avg 2.87 3.2
After a Push Games Avg 3.86 3.29
3.45 2.99

 

ATS Stats gave us a look into the historical positioning of these teams, and the Raymond Report gives us real-time positioning and how these teams are functioning in this 2014 season.

Once again, we prefer that all these considerations align, but that’s not always possible and we sometimes have to let the value justify the decision.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: MIAMI to win 4-3.

 

 

 

 

 

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