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San Francisco Giants (Hudson) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Morton) – Preview May 6th, 2014

San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants 
SIDE :-113

3.92

Vs.

Date: 2014-05-06
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 72 Previous Games

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U :7

3.2 = 7.12

 

Before we even start a practical analysis, let’s look at last night’s situation and see how these teams play following up such a unique position:

  • When SAN FRANCISCO team played as any Home/Road team Scored 9 or more runs in last game Coming off a 1 run win: SU 3-9

  • When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a Road team Scored 9 or more runs in last game Coming off a 1 run win: SU 1-7

  • When PITTSBURGH team played as any Home/Road team Scored 9 or more runs in last game Coming off a 1 run lost: SU 3-3

  • When PITTSBURGH team played as a Home team Scored 9 or more runs in last game Coming off a 1 run lost: 2-0

So based on these “ATS SMART STATS”, we are going to recommend that only a 1/2 unit is merited due to the possibility of there being something to this specific situation. Remember, we’re here to get rich fast…we’re about winning in the long run.

 

Let’s look at it:

PITCHING

Starting on the bump today for the Giants is Tim Hudson:

  • Hudson has given up 31AB vs 4/8 PIT hitters over .300AVG.
  • Hudson has given up 55AB vs 4/8 PIT hitters under .300AVG.
  • Hudson is 2.17ERA all games this season.
  • Hudson is 1.23ERA on the road this season.
  • Hudson is 1.99ERA L3G.

Starting on the bump today for the Pirates is Charlie Morton:

  • Morton has given up 29AB vs 4/9 SFG hitters over .300AVG.
  • Morton has given up 59AB vs 5/9 SFG hitters under .300AVG.
  • Morton is 4.21ERA all games this season.
  • Morton is 4.00ERA at home this season.
  • Morton is 5.19ERA L3G.

Did you know:

  • Aside from the debacle on April 13th when Hudson gave up 4 runs vs the #1 placed Colorado bats (.OPS), Hudson has not given up more than 2 ER in any of his outings.
  • Aside from April 13th, Morton hasn’t lasted more than 6 innings.

That said, he’s fairly stable across hits and ER and SO and BB. So in terms of predictability, what we see is what we get. We shouldn’t see some elite outing from Morton, but we also shouldn’t expect him to to worse than average either.

 

 

BATTING

  • San Francisco are 12th in the league with a .724OPS.
  • San Francisco is 4.8 runs/game on the road.
  • San Francisco is 4.9 runs/game against RH pitchers.
  • Pittsburgh is 20th in the league with a .687OPS.
  • Pittsburgh is 4.5 runs/game at home.
  • Pittsburgh is 4.0 runs/game against LH pitchers.

All in all, batting advantages are negligible, if there is a predictable edge in this game, it will have to do with the pitching.

 

 

BULLPEN

  • San Francisco bullpen is 1.88ERA all games.
  • San Francisco bullpen is 2.88ERA on the road.
  • Pittsburgh bullpen is 2.91ERA allE games.
  • Pittsburgh bullpen is 2.65ERA at home.

Both teams with completely competent bullpens. Just like that bats, we’ll have to find our advantage somewhere else. Let’s hope ATS Stats and the Raymond Report can shed some light on this subject. Hudson pitching for SFG is huge, but nothing is ever decided just because of a single advantage.

 

 

ATS STATS

Historical stats to SUPPORT the SFG pick:

When SAN FRANCISCO played as Favourite- Vs PITTSBURGH 12-8-0

When SAN FRANCISCO played as Favourite- With a spread between 100 and 120 28-17-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a Road team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Before a non division game – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 21-12-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a Road team – Vs NL Conference – Playing on Tuesday – Coming off a 1 run win – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 9-5-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as Road team as a Favorite – After a conference game – During a night game – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 1 run win 9-3-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Before a non division game – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off 1 over 8-2-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – During a night game – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 1 run win 8-3-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as road team as a Favorite – Playing on Tuesday – Before a non division game 30-11-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as road team as a Favorite – During a night game – Playing on Tuesday 44-29-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as road team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – During a night game 91-59-0

When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as road team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers 114-68-0

When ANY MLB Team (San Francisco) played as a 100 to -120 Road Favorite – After a conference game – Last 4 years – Coming off a night game – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite 42-28-0

When SAN FRANCISCO Played as road team as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Over 24 – 11 – 0

When C MORTON ‘s Team played as Underdog- With a spread between 100 and 120 5-13-2

When C MORTON ‘s Team played as Underdog- in the month of May 3-10-0

When PITTSBURGH team played as a 100 to 120 Home Underdog – After a conference game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 3-8-0

When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Before a non division game – During a night game – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off a 1 run lost 3-9-0

When ANY MLB Team (Pittsburgh) played as a Home team – Last 2 years – 2nd game of a series – During the month of May – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Home loss – Coming off a 1 run lost 6-16-0

When PITTSBURGH Played as home team as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – With 4 Over or Less – Lost Last Game by 1 Runs or More – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 4 – 8 – 0

When PITTSBURGH Played as a Underdog – During Last 5 Years – With 4 Over or Less – Lost Last Game by 1 Runs or More – With SU Record of 2 Win 5 Lost in L7G 11 – 22 – 0

Historical stats to THREATEN the SFG pick:

When PITTSBURGH played as Underdog- With a spread between 100 and 120 26-15-4

When PITTSBURGH team played as a Home team – During the month of May – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off a Home loss 8-5-0

When PITTSBURGH played as any home/road team – During Last 3 Years – Lost Last Game by 1 Runs 48 – 30 – 0

 

Looking at ATS STATS it’s crystal clear that historically speaking, in this position, SFG should have a clear and decise advantage.

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB

Game Date – 2014-05-06
Road Team :- (3407) SAN FRANCISCO
Home Team :- (3408 )PITTSBURGH

 

SAN FRANCISCOTeam Name: SAN FRANCISCO(Road Team)
Money Line: SAN FRANCISCO -110 vs PITTSBURGH +100
Spread Line: SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +145 —– PITTSBURGH +1.5 -165
O/U: SAN FRANCISCO 7 -115 —– PITTSBURGH 7 -105
Pitchers: SAN FRANCISCO – T Hudson (R) vs PITTSBURGH – C Morton (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,May 06 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: win 11 – 10 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Current Game: Pittsburgh Pirates
Next Game: At PITTSBURGH
Stats & Trends: SAN FRANCISCO vs. PITTSBURGH
PVI Rating on Winning: 65.63%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 51.61%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 24.49%
Streaks: 6 SU Win – 1 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 49%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 50%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.32
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.62
Road Team
(SAN FRANCISCO)
When SAN FRANCISCO is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When SAN FRANCISCO is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 3-1 46-56 60.05 1-2-1 44-43-15 58.05
vs Non-Division opponent 4-0 97-132 71.18 1-3-0 93-124-12 66.07
vs Conference opponent 4-0 63-75 72.83 1-3-0 57-72-9 65.41
Playing in the month of May 4-0 33-40 72.61 1-3-0 32-35-6 63.62
Playing on Tuesday 0-2 34-41 22.67 1-1-0 30-40-5 53.57
Played as road Favorite 3-2 81-75 55.96 3-2-0 77-72-7 44.16
After a Non-Division Game 3-0 97-125 71.85 1-2-0 86-123-13 62.76
After a Conference Game 4-0 65-83 71.96 1-3-0 58-80-10 66.49
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 7-6 42-40 52.54 7-5-1 39-35-8 44.49
vs NL Conference Opponent 11-6 128-157 54.81 8-8-1 124-137-24 51.25
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent (since 1996) 183-183 54-50 50.96 189-162-15 46-52-6 49.61
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 10-6 122-149 53.76 7-8-1 119-129-23 52.68
Coming off a 6 winning streak (since 1996) 8-9 0-0 23.53 8-9-0 0-0-0 26.47
Coming off 1 over 1-1 46-65 45.72 2-0-0 53-47-11 23.5
Coming off a win 7-3 92-119 56.8 6-4-0 108-92-11 43
Coming off a Road Win as a Favorite 0-2 32-40 22.22 2-0-0 35-34-3 24.64
During a night game 5-6 149-188 44.83 4-7-0 156-156-25 56.82
Coming off a 4 road trip (since 1996) 5-5 1-6 32.15 7-2-1 1-5-1 52.78
Coming off a 1 runs win 2-2 22-34 44.65 1-3-0 28-25-3 61.09
Coming off a score 11 runs FOR in last game (since 1996) 17-10 2-1 64.82 12-13-2 1-2-0 59.34
Coming off a score 10 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 12-19 1-9 24.36 12-18-1 7-2-1 41.11
vs. opponent with a 31% to 40% winning % 1-0 33-41 72.3 1-0-0 38-34-2 23.61
vs PITTSBURGH (since 1996) 28-30 10-8 51.92 30-27-1 9-7-2 45.56
Coming off a Win over NL CENTRAL division opponent (since 1996) 100-92 25-24 51.55 112-76-4 24-25-0 45.73
Coming off a game that went over 1-1 46-65 45.72 2-0-0 53-47-11 23.5
Coming off a night game 7-3 142-173 57.54 3-6-1 136-156-23 60.05
Coming off a game 1 of a series 2-3 66-82 42.3 2-3-0 69-67-12 54.63
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 2-1 28-31 57.07 2-1-0 28-27-4 41.21
Last 30 days 6-5 187-254 48.48 3-7-1 193-219-29 61.58
Last 45 days 11-6 229-294 54.25 8-8-1 231-258-34 51.38
Last 60 days 11-6 229-294 54.25 8-8-1 231-258-34 51.38
Last 90 days 11-6 229-294 54.25 8-8-1 231-258-34 51.38
Vs. Right handed pitchers 5-2 156-224 56.24 4-3-0 164-192-24 48.4
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 2-3 53-81 39.78 4-1-0 62-65-7 35.59
Coming off win vs. Left handed pitcher 4-2 29-37 55.31 3-3-0 36-28-2 46.88
TEAM: SAN FRANCISCO
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.38 3.59
Home Games Avg 3.93 2.93
Road Games Avg 4.76 4.18
Last 3 Games Avg 6 4
Last 5 Games Avg 4.6 3
Last 10 Games Avg 4.7 2.6
vs. Division Games Avg 4.24 3.88
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.34 3.79
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4.67 1.67
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 4.33 5
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.56 2.22
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.82 3.82
After a Win Games Avg 4.05 3.45
After a Lost Games Avg 4.55 3.45
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 5.4 4.3
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.5 3.5
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.7 2.6
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.6 3.4
After an Over Games Avg 4.43 3.07
After an Under Games Avg 4.19 3.5
After a Push Games Avg 2 8
4.32 3.62
PITTSBURGHTeam Name: PITTSBURGH(Home Team)
Money Line: PITTSBURGH +100 vs SAN FRANCISCO -110
Spread Line: PITTSBURGH +1.5 -165 —– SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +145
O/U: PITTSBURGH 7 -105 —– SAN FRANCISCO 7 -115
Pitchers: PITTSBURGH – C Morton (R) vs SAN FRANCISCO – T Hudson (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,May 06 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: lost 11 – 10 vs San Francisco Giants
Current Game: San Francisco Giants
Next Game: Vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Stats & Trends: PITTSBURGH vs. SAN FRANCISCO
PVI Rating on Winning: 36.67%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 51.72%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 48.98%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 4 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 45%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 45%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.74
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.41
Home Team
(PITTSBURGH)
When PITTSBURGH is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When PITTSBURGH is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 5-7 53-49 46.82 6-4-2 44-43-15 44.72
vs Non-Division opponent 2-2 108-121 48.58 4-0-0 93-124-12 28.57
vs Conference opponent 0-1 67-71 24.28 1-0-0 57-72-9 27.91
Playing in the month of May 2-2 33-40 47.61 4-0-0 32-35-6 26.12
Playing on Tuesday 0-1 27-48 18 0-1-0 30-40-5 78.57
Played as home Underdog 2-3 63-107 38.53 3-2-0 77-86-7 46.38
After a Non-Division Game 2-2 95-123 46.79 4-0-0 90-117-11 28.26
After a Conference Game (since 1996) 304-308 76-76 49.84 302-282-28 60-82-10 53.02
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 0-1 40-47 22.99 1-0-0 39-41-7 25.63
vs NL Conference Opponent 6-9 129-151 43.04 6-7-2 114-141-25 54.57
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent (since 1996) 131-172 39-46 44.56 164-131-8 34-42-9 49.84
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 5-8 130-146 42.78 5-6-2 110-142-24 55.45
Coming off a 2 losing streak 2-2 29-23 52.89 2-2-0 29-21-2 46
Coming off 4 over (since 1996) 16-22 4-7 39.24 19-17-2 4-4-3 48.61
Coming off a lost 6-5 149-150 52.19 6-5-0 138-144-17 48.26
Coming off a Home Lost as a Underdog 0-2 47-56 22.82 0-2-0 46-50-7 76.04
During a night game 6-6 147-190 46.81 8-2-2 156-156-25 35
Coming off a 4 home stand (since 1996) 11-12 0-2 23.92 8-15-0 1-1-0 57.61
Coming off a 1 runs loss 2-1 32-23 62.43 2-1-0 26-27-2 42.14
Coming off a score 10 runs FOR in last game (since 1996) 11-10 8-1 70.64 13-8-0 6-2-1 31.55
Coming off a score 11 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 16-19 2-2 47.86 18-15-2 0-2-2 72.73
vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % 1-2 29-38 38.31 3-0-0 36-28-3 21.88
vs SAN FRANCISCO (since 1996) 30-28 6-11 43.51 30-27-1 8-8-1 48.69
Coming off a Lost over NL WEST division opponent (since 1996) 74-88 20-20 47.84 89-68-5 23-14-3 40.58
Coming off a night game 2-9 149-185 31.4 4-6-1 148-163-23 56.21
Coming off a game 1 of a series 2-3 68-80 42.98 2-1-2 69-67-12 41.3
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series (since 1996) 118-103 31-38 49.16 114-97-10 32-32-5 47.99
Last 30 days 5-8 204-237 42.36 8-5-0 193-219-29 45.81
Last 45 days 8-10 240-283 45.17 9-7-2 231-258-34 48.26
Last 60 days 8-10 240-283 45.17 9-7-2 231-258-34 48.26
Last 90 days 8-10 240-283 45.17 9-7-2 231-258-34 48.26
Vs. Right handed pitchers 8-9 172-205 46.34 9-6-2 174-180-23 45.43
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 5-6 165-197 45.52 7-3-1 156-185-21 42.13
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 5-5 100-114 48.37 6-4-0 93-109-12 46.98
TEAM: PITTSBURGH
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.59 4.06
Home Games Avg 4.5 4.33
Road Games Avg 2.56 3.75
Last 3 Games Avg 6.67 8
Last 5 Games Avg 5.2 5.8
Last 10 Games Avg 3.3 4.2
vs. Division Games Avg 3.65 4
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.89 4.26
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 2.43 3.29
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.86 4.38
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.15 3.54
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg N/A N/A
After a Win Games Avg 3.18 5.27
After a Lost Games Avg 4.44 3.78
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.33 6
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.22 3.33
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.5 5
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.67 4.22
After an Over Games Avg 3.92 5.85
After an Under Games Avg 3.67 3.22
After a Push Games Avg 2 2
3.74 4.41

 

The Raymond Report shows consensus with all other considerations.

This is a good package to pick on and at even odds, we’re laughing.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: SAN FRANCISCO to win 6-3.

 

 

 

 

 

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