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Texas Ranger (Lewis) vs. Houston Astros (Peacock)

Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers 
SIDE :-130

4.62

Vs.

Date: 2014-05-12
Time: 19:10:00

Generated from 47 Previous Games

Houston Astros
Houston Astros
O/U :9

3.96 = 8.58

 

Tonight’s pick is a little bit interesting. Typically we like to bank on the games with only pros, no cons, a positive ATS Stats report, a positive Raymond Report, and we like it at dog value. Short of that, we can only find the ‘next best’.

Firstly, DET@BAL has 40% chance of Thunderstorms, NYM@NYY has rain on the way tonight with no chance of letting up once it gets started, CHC@STL is 50% chance of scattered Thunderstorms, so there really isn’t that much to pick from. As far as you fantasy players go, looking to bank on teams with high RF averages vs high ERA pitchers and high RA averages are the way to go. Picking from the RANGERS lineup looks good, WHITE SOX looks good, as well as perhaps the METS or YANKEES if you’re in the gambling mood and think the rain will hold off. Days with multiple rain-outs, involving grade-a teams, is always an excellent time to bank if you’re into fantasy ball.

 

Besides the fact that they’re one of the only games with no weather threat, here is where we feel Texas stands to be the best value tonight…

 

Pitching Matchups

Starting on the mound for Texas is Colby Lewis:
6.12ERA All Starts
4.22ERA @Road
7.53ERA L3 Starts

These are terrible stats and off the cuff we can’t ignore the fact that Lewis is a complete liability for TEXAS here tonight…but…it’s not about the team with the liability, it’s about the team with not only the most liabilities but the most severe liabilities as well.

Something we should consider:

  • LEWIS is 4-1 vs HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.90 and a WHIP of 0.727.

 

Starting on the mound for Houston is Brad Peacock:
5.01ERA All Games
4.09ERA @Home
4.07ERA L3 Starts

Again, these stats are questionable. As far as starters go, both these teams are vulnerable.

With TEXAS batting 11th in leauge (.OPS), and with HOUSTON batting 26th, it looks like Peacock’s advantage is offset by TEXAS bats. All the more if we consider Lewis’s impeccable record vs the Astros timber.

 

 

Hitting Matchups

TEXAS timber is as follows:
4.2 All Games
4.4 @Road
3.4 vs RH Pitchers

HOUSTON timber is as follows:
3.4 All Games
3.6 @Home
3.6 vs RH Pitchers

 

 

Bullpen Matchups

TEXAS bullpens are as follows:
4.40ERA All Games
6.13ERA @Road

HOUSTON bullpens are as follows:
6.21ERA All Games
5.97ERA @Home

TERRIBLE bullpens on both sides! These kinds of games can ultimately be decided in the bottom of the 9th no matter what the deficit is. Despite the moderate hitting combined from these two teams, up for consideration would be the OVER 9.0 here.

 

Ultimately the practical synopsis would have these teams at about even chances to win. If we stopped here, HOUSTON would be the pick at +120. But when we look into the history (ATSSTATS) and the real-time performance of these teams (RAYMOND REPORT), we’ll be able to see if there are any additional points that might help tip the balance.

 

ATS STATS:

Historical stats to SUPPORT the TEXAS pick:

When TEXAS team played as a -120 to -140 Road Favorite – Vs AL Conference – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Scored 2 or more runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a series loss: SU 14-9-0

When TEXAS team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – During the month of May – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher: SU 9-4-0

When TEXAS team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – After a non division game – Coming off a Loss vs. AL EAST opponent – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher: SU 19-8-0

When TEXAS team Played as Road team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 3 run lost – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher: SU 10-6-0

When TEXAS team Played as Road team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Allowed 5 runs or less AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a 1 game loss: SU 18-10-0

When TEXAS team Played as road team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs. Right handed pitchers: SU 130-81-0

When ANY MLB Team played as a -120 to -140 Road Favorite – After a conference game – 1st game of a series – Before a conference game – Coming off a 2 game under – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 game loss: SU 10-5-0

When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – After a conference game – Last 2 years – Vs Conference Opponent – Coming off a 2 game under – Coming off a day game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher: SU 12-8-0

When ANY MLB Team played as a -120 to -140 Road Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Last 2 years – Coming off a 2 game under – Coming off a day game: SU 15-8-0

When TEXAS played as any home/road team – During Last 5 Years – With 2 Under or More – Lost Last Game by 3 Runs or More – With SU Record of 0 Win 3 Lost in L3G: SU9 – 4 – 0

When HOUSTON Played as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under or More: SU53 – 110 – 0

When HOUSTON Played as a Underdog – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Under – Won Last Game by 3 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 3 Lost in L5G: SU3 – 10 – 0

When HOUSTON team Played as Home team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 1 game win – Allowed 2 runs AGAINST in their last game: SU 3-9-0

When HOUSTON team played as a home team – Vs AL Conference – Vs AL WEST opponent: SU 34-65-0

When HOUSTON team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – During the month of May – Vs. Right handed pitchers: SU 6-12-0

 

Historical stats to THREATEN the TEXAS pick:

When ANY MLB (Astros) Team played as a Home team – During the month of May – After a non conference game – Before a conference game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a series loss 17-9-0

When ANY MLB (Astros) Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs AL Conference – After a non conference game – Before a division game – Coming off a day game – Coming off a Road win 9-6-0

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB

Game Date – 2014-05-12
Road Team :- (3417) TEXAS
Home Team :- (3418 )HOUSTON

 

TEXASTeam Name: TEXAS(Road Team)
Money Line: TEXAS -130 vs HOUSTON +120
Spread Line: TEXAS -1.5 +125 —– HOUSTON +1.5 -145
O/U: TEXAS 9 -120 —– HOUSTON 9 +100
Pitchers: TEXAS – C Lewis (R) vs HOUSTON – B Peacock (R)
Game Date: Monday,May 12 2014 7:10 PM
Last Game: lost 5 – 2 vs Boston Red Sox
Current Game: Houston Astros
Next Game: At HOUSTON
Stats & Trends: TEXAS vs. HOUSTON
PVI Rating on Winning: 50%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 47.22%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 63.26%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 1 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 42%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 51%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.14
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.97
Road Team
(TEXAS)
When TEXAS is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When TEXAS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 9 1-1 28-25 51.42 0-2-0 23-23-7 75
vs Non-Division opponent 2-9 125-172 30.14 4-7-0 122-156-19 59.88
vs Non-Conference opponent 0-2 45-77 18.45 1-1-0 52-66-4 52.97
Playing in the month of May 2-3 74-93 42.16 2-2-1 72-81-14 51.47
Playing on Monday 1-3 30-40 33.93 1-3-0 27-37-6 66.41
Played as road Favorite 3-3 93-85 51.13 4-1-1 89-81-8 33.83
After a Non-Division Game 3-8 126-165 35.29 5-6-0 116-155-20 55.88
After a Conference Game 2-7 83-100 33.79 2-7-0 74-95-14 67
vs AL WEST Division Opponent 6-4 37-50 51.27 6-2-2 37-44-6 39.66
vs AL Conference Opponent 8-11 125-165 42.61 9-8-2 128-149-13 50.43
Coming off vs AL EAST Division Opponent 2-6 40-50 34.72 2-6-0 38-49-3 65.66
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 8-11 125-162 42.83 8-9-2 124-148-15 53.68
Coming off 2 under 0-1 38-38 25 1-0-0 32-41-3 28.08
Coming off a lost 6-7 161-205 45.07 7-5-1 145-192-29 49.32
Coming off a Home Lost as a Underdog (since 1996) 10-13 4-10 36.03 14-7-2 4-8-2 50
During a night game 5-10 177-227 38.57 8-5-2 183-191-30 44.77
Coming off a 7 home stand (since 1996) 15-18 3-9 35.23 17-13-3 5-6-1 48.94
Coming off a 3 runs loss (since 1996) 46-52 18-20 47.16 44-50-4 19-17-2 50.21
Coming off a score 2 runs FOR in last game 1-1 29-32 48.77 2-0-0 31-28-2 23.73
Coming off a score 5 runs AGAINST in last game 2-0 30-32 74.2 1-1-0 32-25-5 46.93
vs. opponent with a 31% to 40% winning % 0-6 36-44 22.5 2-4-0 40-36-4 57.02
vs HOUSTON (since 1996) 30-16 13-8 63.56 21-24-1 10-11-0 52.86
Coming off a Lost over AL EAST division opponent 2-4 24-28 39.74 2-4-0 21-29-2 62.34
Coming off a day game 1-4 87-118 31.22 2-3-0 93-102-10 56.16
Coming off a series loss 1-3 40-72 30.36 3-1-0 47-55-10 39.46
Last 30 days 6-6 191-260 46.18 7-3-2 190-225-36 42.11
Last 45 days 8-13 268-347 40.84 10-9-2 270-303-42 50.13
Last 60 days 8-13 270-347 40.93 10-9-2 271-304-42 50.12
Last 90 days 8-13 270-347 40.93 10-9-2 271-304-42 50.12
Vs. Right handed pitchers 4-11 181-259 33.91 5-8-2 189-222-29 57.78
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 6-8 200-240 44.16 6-7-1 191-217-32 53.52
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 4-6 111-139 42.2 6-4-0 99-135-16 48.85
TEAM: TEXAS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.18 3.74
Home Games Avg 2.93 3.66
Road Games Avg 3.52 3.86
Last 3 Games Avg 1.67 4.33
Last 5 Games Avg 2.6 2.6
Last 10 Games Avg 3.7 4.5
vs. Division Games Avg 3 3
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.07 3.23
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.86 6.86
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.69 5.46
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.04 3
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 2.91 3.45
After a Win Games Avg 2.53 3.47
After a Lost Games Avg 2.89 3.56
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.38 3.5
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.44 4
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.64 3.45
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 2.33 3.11
After an Over Games Avg 2.58 2.89
After an Under Games Avg 2.93 3.44
After a Push Games Avg 7 8.33
3.14 3.97
HOUSTONTeam Name: HOUSTON(Home Team)
Money Line: HOUSTON +120 vs TEXAS -130
Spread Line: HOUSTON +1.5 -145 —– TEXAS -1.5 +125
O/U: HOUSTON 9 +100 —– TEXAS 9 -120
Pitchers: HOUSTON – B Peacock (R) vs TEXAS – C Lewis (R)
Game Date: Monday,May 12 2014 7:10 PM
Last Game: win 5 – 2 vs Baltimore Orioles
Current Game: Texas Rangers
Next Game: Vs. TEXAS
Stats & Trends: HOUSTON vs. TEXAS
PVI Rating on Winning: 31.58%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 54.05%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 63.26%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 37%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 37%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 2.59
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.75
Home Team
(HOUSTON)
When HOUSTON is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When HOUSTON is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 9 2-4 24-29 39.31 3-3-0 23-23-7 50
vs Non-Division opponent 6-15 141-156 38.02 10-11-0 122-156-19 54.25
vs Non-Conference opponent 6-13 58-64 39.56 10-9-0 52-66-4 51.65
Playing in the month of May 1-4 77-90 33.06 3-2-0 72-81-14 46.47
Playing on Monday 0-1 30-40 21.43 1-0-0 27-37-6 28.91
Played as home Underdog 6-13 71-123 34.09 9-10-0 89-96-9 52.26
After a Non-Division Game 5-15 126-159 34.61 10-10-0 118-149-18 52.91
After a Non-Conference Game 4-14 49-68 32.05 9-9-0 51-62-4 52.44
vs AL WEST Division Opponent 4-9 32-58 33.17 9-4-0 41-45-4 41.55
vs AL Conference Opponent 6-13 123-157 37.76 10-9-0 134-135-11 48.78
Coming off vs AL EAST Division Opponent 1-2 43-57 38.17 1-2-0 48-49-3 58.6
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 4-14 116-152 32.75 9-9-0 131-125-12 49.42
Coming off 1 under 2-4 67-88 38.28 3-3-0 61-88-6 54.53
Coming off a win 2-5 110-151 35.36 2-5-0 115-126-20 61.86
Coming off a Road Win as a Underdog (since 1996) 40-30 11-17 48.22 28-39-3 12-14-2 56.03
During a night game 4-10 179-225 36.44 6-8-0 183-191-30 54.11
Coming off a 11 road trip (since 1996) 2-0 1-0 100 1-0-1 0-1-0 50
Coming off a 3 runs win 0-1 15-21 20.84 1-0-0 18-14-4 21.88
Coming off a score 5 runs FOR in last game 1-3 29-34 35.52 2-2-0 28-30-5 50.86
Coming off a score 2 runs AGAINST in last game 1-0 33-33 75 0-1-0 27-37-2 78.91
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 1-6 102-117 30.44 4-3-0 97-107-15 47.66
vs TEXAS (since 1996) 16-30 9-12 38.82 21-24-1 10-9-2 50.35
Coming off a Win over AL EAST division opponent 1-1 15-31 41.31 0-2-0 21-25-0 77.18
Coming off a game that went under 0-6 68-75 23.78 3-3-0 67-63-13 49.23
Coming off a day game 0-6 84-100 22.83 3-3-0 81-93-10 51.73
Coming off a series loss 0-3 39-40 24.69 2-1-0 36-37-6 42.01
Last 30 days 3-11 209-242 33.89 7-7-0 190-225-36 52.11
Last 45 days 6-15 284-331 37.38 10-11-0 270-303-42 52.63
Last 60 days 6-15 284-333 37.3 10-11-0 271-304-42 52.63
Last 90 days 6-15 284-333 37.3 10-11-0 271-304-42 52.63
Vs. Right handed pitchers 4-11 206-243 36.28 8-7-0 202-217-30 49.23
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 3-9 196-228 35.62 5-7-0 181-216-27 56.37
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 1-4 78-107 31.08 2-3-0 84-85-16 55.15
TEAM: HOUSTON
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 2.69 3.92
Home Games Avg 3.29 5.33
Road Games Avg 2.25 2.86
Last 3 Games Avg 4 3.67
Last 5 Games Avg 3.6 2.6
Last 10 Games Avg 2.4 2.7
vs. Division Games Avg 2.81 4.22
vs. Conference Games Avg 2.74 3.85
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 1.5 5.5
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.64 5.05
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3 3.53
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 2.13 1.75
After a Win Games Avg 2 2.64
After a Lost Games Avg 2.81 4.35
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 0 0.2
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 2.85 2.85
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.67 4.67
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 2.77 5.85
After an Over Games Avg 2.59 3.71
After an Under Games Avg 2.69 4
After a Push Games Avg 2 5.5
2.59 3.75

 

TEXAS looks bad with a 42% chance of winning, but HOUSTON looks almost hopeless with a 37% chance to win.

 

After considering ATS Stats and the Raymond Report, the Texas Rangers look like they are a heck of a deal at -120.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: TEXAS to win 7-5.

 

 

 

 

 

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