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Miami Marlins (Turner) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Beckett) – Preview May 13th, 2014

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 
O/U :7.53.83
Vs.Date: 2014-05-13
Time: 21:10:00Generated from 53 Previous Games
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
SIDE :-160
4.22 = 8.05

 

These are the kinds of games that are a joy to bet on. Kemp is lighting up lately, Gordon is a star, Puig the slugger, Gonzalez, Ramirez, Wow. What – a – line – up.

Turner might be relatively untested, but LAD has absolutely DECIMATED him in their last bouts, look at it:

Crawford is .333 across 3 AB.
Ethier .500 across 4AB.
Gonzalez .500 across 4AB.
Gordon 1.000 across 3AB.
Kemp .500 across 2AB.
Olivio .500 across 2AB.
Puig .333 across 3AB.
Ramirez .167 across 6AB.
Uribe .800 across 5AB.

When Mr. Hanley Ramirez is the batter that Turner wants to face the most? Wow…..

 

So who is Turner? Turner is a solid A-Ball pitcher that’s been between the minors and the big league since 2010. Truth be told he’s actually pitched a reasonable ERA centering somewhere near the high 3s / low 4s. This season has been a tough start compared to his own standards so as far as that goes, he’s not shown us his best yet, and if he can hold off one more night before throwing his best game, then we can safely bank on LAD.

With Miami averaging only 2.8 Runs/Game when on the road, it’s tough to understand where their hitting might stem from. They are a respectable 4.0 vs RH pitchers, but again, their road stats mitigate that point.

LAD is a more respectable 3.7 R/G at home, but they’re a whopping 4.6 R/G vs RH Starters.

The one and only point that is nerve-racking is when you look at how MIA has barely been edged out as underdogs in their last contests, and LAD has barely edged out wins, or even has lost, as the chalk-line.

There is always something about that point, when dogs are over-performing and favourites are under-performing, that is unsettling, and it might be a good reason to play a smaller unit system (for those of you that took in the handicapping 102 money management article) or a half-unit (for those of you that didn’t).

http://atsstats.com/handicapping-and-sports-gambling-102/

 

Did you know:

  • MIAMI is averaging a measely 2.9R/G L7G
  • LOS ANGELES DODGERS are averaging 4.0R/G L7G

Did you know:

  • MIAMI’s bullpen is a stinky 5.56ERA on the road
  • LOS ANGELES DODGERS’ bullpen is a respectable 3.37ERA at home

 

 

ATS STATS

Historical Stats to SUPPORT the Dodgers:

When LOS ANGELES played as Home Favourite- With a spread between 160 and 180 61-39-0
When BECKETT JOSH ‘s Team played as Home Favourite- in the month of May 17-11-0
When BECKETT JOSH ‘s Team played as Favourite- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 41-21-0
When LOS ANGELES played as Home Team- Vs NL East Division 15-9-1
When LOS ANGELES played as Favourite- With a spread between 160 and 180 9-5-1
When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Playing on Tuesday – After a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 1 run lost 35-23-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Playing on Tuesday – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a 1 run lost – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 15-7-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Playing on Tuesday – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a night game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 run lost 32-21-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – 2nd game of a series – During the month of May – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game 52-33-0
When LOS ANGELES Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Under or Less – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 12 – 5 – 0
When LOS ANGELES played as a home team – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Under or More – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 20 – 10 – 0
When LOS ANGELES Played as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Under or More 144 – 94 – 0
When LOS ANGELES played as a home team – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Under or More – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 17 – 9 – 0

When LOS ANGELES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 run lost – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher: SU 24-16-0

When LOS ANGELES team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Total is 7.5 – During a night game: SU 49-25-0

When LOS ANGELES team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Before a conference game: SU 50-27-0

When LOS ANGELES team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Total is 7.5 – Vs Non Division Opponen: SUt 36-14-0

When LOS ANGELES team played as a Home team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – After a non division game – Coming off a 1 run lost – Coming off 1 under: SU 20-11-0

When LOS ANGELES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 run lost: SU 24-16-0

When LOS ANGELES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a 1 run lost: SU 16-8-0

When LOS ANGELES team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Vs. Right handed pitchers: SU 72-42-0

When LOS ANGELES team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0: SU 45-25-0

When MIAMI played as Road Team- With a spread between 140 and 160: SU 9-21-0

When MIAMI team played as a Road team – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Playing on Tuesday – Coming off 1 under – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher: SU 3-7-0

When MIAMI team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – During the month of May – During a night game: SU 8-25-0

When MIAMI team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – During the month of May – 2nd game of a series: SU 6-13-0

When MIAMI team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During the month of May: SU 11-23-0

When ANY MLB Team (Marlins) Played as Road team as a Underdog – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Last 5 years – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog – Coming off a night game: SU 9-19-0

When ANY MLB Team (Marlins) played as a 140 to 160 Road Underdog – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Before a non division game – Coming off a Home loss – Coming off 1 under: SU 5-10-0

When MIAMI Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G: SU13 – 26 – 0

When MIAMI played as any home/road team – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G: SU29 – 59 – 0

 

 

Historical Stats to THREATEN the Dodgers:

When MIAMI team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs NL WEST opponent – Coming off a Home loss – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog: SU 9-2-0

When MIAMI team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Playing on Tuesday – After a non division game – Coming off a Home loss – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher: SU 9-6-0

When MIAMI team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Before a non division game – During a night game – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off 1 under: SU 6-4-0

When MIAMI Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Under – With SU Record of 2 Win 5 Lost in L7G: SU 10 – 6 – 0

 

So although it’s not a perfect case for LAD, it’s definitely a compelling and noteworthy one. We can say that, historically speaking, Los Angeles is in a position to dominate over Miami here tonight. So much tends to go right for LAD when in this position, and at the same time, so much tends to go wrong for MIA.

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

 

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB
Game Date – 2014-05-13
Road Team :- (3013) MIAMI
Home Team :- (3014 )LOS ANGELES

 

MIAMITeam Name: MIAMI(Road Team)
Money Line: MIAMI +147 vs LOS ANGELES -160
Spread Line: MIAMI +1.5 -160 —– LOS ANGELES -1.5 +140
O/U: MIAMI 7.5 -105 —– LOS ANGELES 7.5 -115
Pitchers: MIAMI – J Turner (R) vs LOS ANGELES – J Beckett (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,May 13 2014 9:10 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Current Game: Los Angeles Dodgers
Next Game: At LOS ANGELES
Stats & Trends: MIAMI vs. LOS ANGELES
PVI Rating on Winning: 52.63%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 37.14%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 44.9%
Streaks: 3 SU Lost – 3 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 32%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 51%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 2.96
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.2
Road Team
(MIAMI)
When MIAMI is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When MIAMI is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 0-2 62-70 23.49 1-1-0 73-59-0 47.35
vs Non-Division opponent 1-4 129-178 31.01 4-1-0 128-160-19 37.78
vs Conference opponent 1-4 82-100 32.53 4-1-0 75-92-15 37.55
Playing in the month of May 1-4 79-99 32.19 4-1-0 79-85-14 35.92
Playing on Tuesday 1-2 42-50 39.49 0-3-0 37-50-5 78.74
Played as road Underdog 3-14 178-267 28.83 6-8-3 187-224-34 55.82
After a Non-Division Game 0-7 129-171 21.5 4-2-1 122-158-20 44.88
After a Conference Game 1-4 86-105 32.52 4-1-0 78-99-14 37.97
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 2-14 41-78 23.48 5-8-3 44-59-16 59.41
vs NL Conference Opponent 3-18 148-185 29.37 9-9-3 146-158-29 50.99
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent 0-5 41-52 22.05 4-1-0 45-39-9 33.22
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 3-16 139-180 29.68 9-8-2 143-150-26 49.13
Coming off a 4 losing streak 0-1 11-4 36.67 1-0-0 6-9-0 30
Coming off 4 over 0-1 9-7 28.13 0-1-0 7-8-1 76.67
Coming off a lost 3-17 165-209 29.56 8-9-3 150-195-29 54.73
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 2-9 95-125 30.68 5-4-2 85-116-19 51.08
During a night game 3-12 182-233 31.93 7-5-3 190-195-30 46.16
Coming off a 5 road trip 0-1 15-11 28.85 0-1-0 11-14-1 78
Coming off a 1 runs loss 1-3 47-45 38.05 2-1-1 36-50-6 45.74
Coming off a score 5 runs FOR in last game (since 1996) 74-84 24-28 46.5 86-62-10 25-22-5 44.35
Coming off a score 6 runs AGAINST in last game 0-1 15-27 17.86 1-0-0 16-23-3 29.49
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 1-4 79-92 33.1 2-1-2 76-81-14 42.46
vs LOS ANGELES (since 1996) 27-33 12-8 52.5 37-19-4 12-6-2 33.63
Coming off a Lost over NL WEST division opponent 0-4 22-27 22.45 3-1-0 24-23-2 36.97
Coming off a night game 2-12 175-221 29.24 7-6-1 170-195-31 49.79
Coming off a game 1 of a series 1-4 81-96 32.88 4-0-1 82-80-15 24.69
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 1-3 46-57 34.83 3-0-1 48-45-10 24.2
Last 30 days 3-13 188-258 30.45 5-8-3 187-223-36 57.97
Last 45 days 3-18 273-353 28.95 9-9-3 277-307-42 51.29
Last 60 days 3-18 275-353 29.04 9-9-3 278-308-42 51.28
Last 90 days 3-18 275-353 29.04 9-9-3 278-308-42 51.28
Vs. Right handed pitchers 2-14 185-264 26.85 7-6-3 194-226-29 49.98
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 3-14 205-244 31.66 8-6-3 197-220-32 47.81
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 3-13 114-142 31.64 5-9-2 102-138-16 60.9
TEAM: MIAMI
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.39 3.12
Home Games Avg 4.17 2.33
Road Games Avg 2.29 4.24
Last 3 Games Avg 4 6.67
Last 5 Games Avg 3.2 6.2
Last 10 Games Avg 2 3.1
vs. Division Games Avg 2.55 2.74
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.37 3.33
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.6 1.2
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 6.25 4.63
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2.64 2.3
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.6 4.6
After a Win Games Avg 2.4 2.35
After a Lost Games Avg 4 4.61
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 0.33 3.33
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.69 5.15
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.76 2.18
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.8 3.2
After an Over Games Avg 3.86 3.45
After an Under Games Avg 2.4 2.9
After a Push Games Avg 3.75 3
2.96 3.2
LOS ANGELESTeam Name: LOS ANGELES(Home Team)
Money Line: LOS ANGELES -160 vs MIAMI +147
Spread Line: LOS ANGELES -1.5 +140 —– MIAMI +1.5 -160
O/U: LOS ANGELES 7.5 -115 —– MIAMI 7.5 -105
Pitchers: LOS ANGELES – J Beckett (R) vs MIAMI – J Turner (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,May 13 2014 9:10 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Miami Marlins
Current Game: Miami Marlins
Next Game: Vs. MIAMI
Stats & Trends: LOS ANGELES vs. MIAMI
PVI Rating on Winning: 51.28%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 45.95%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 51.02%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 2 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 46%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 46%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.58
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.53
Home Team
(LOS ANGELES)
When LOS ANGELES is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When LOS ANGELES is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 1-4 63-69 33.87 3-2-0 73-59-0 42.35
vs Non-Division opponent 3-4 146-161 45.21 4-2-1 128-160-19 44.45
vs Conference opponent 2-3 88-94 44.18 3-1-1 75-92-15 40.05
Playing in the month of May 2-3 82-96 43.04 3-2-0 79-85-14 45.92
Playing on Tuesday 1-1 34-58 43.48 0-2-0 37-50-5 78.74
Played as home Favorite 7-9 218-211 47.29 10-4-2 187-209-33 40.68
After a Non-Division Game 1-5 129-164 30.35 4-2-0 123-152-18 44.3
After a Conference Game 3-3 97-95 50.26 3-2-1 78-99-15 47.97
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 2-3 50-57 43.37 3-1-1 48-46-13 36.97
vs NL Conference Opponent 7-11 163-179 43.28 11-5-2 141-170-31 42.96
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 1-4 52-57 33.86 3-2-0 48-51-10 45.76
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 8-11 162-177 44.95 11-6-2 137-173-29 45.55
Coming off 3 over 2-0 16-17 74.24 1-1-0 13-17-3 53.34
Coming off a win 2-7 112-155 32.09 4-3-2 118-129-20 47.55
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 2-4 73-91 38.92 2-2-2 72-80-12 51.32
During a night game 6-8 184-231 43.6 8-5-1 190-195-30 44.56
Coming off a 5 home stand (since 1996) 37-36 20-16 53.12 39-32-2 16-18-2 49.01
Coming off a 1 runs win 0-2 30-58 17.05 1-1-0 34-47-7 54.01
Coming off a score 6 runs FOR in last game 1-2 23-21 42.8 1-1-1 18-23-3 53.05
Coming off a score 5 runs AGAINST in last game 1-0 26-23 76.53 1-0-0 25-21-3 22.83
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 2-2 69-71 49.65 3-0-1 60-68-12 26.57
vs MIAMI (since 1996) 33-27 14-7 60.84 37-19-4 9-9-3 41.97
Coming off a Win over NL EAST division opponent 0-1 20-16 27.78 1-0-0 22-12-2 17.65
Coming off a night game 6-7 191-227 45.92 8-4-1 184-203-31 42.89
Coming off a game 1 of a series 2-4 82-95 39.83 4-2-0 82-80-15 41.36
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 0-1 43-50 23.12 1-0-0 44-40-9 23.81
Last 30 days 6-9 207-239 43.21 8-5-2 187-223-36 46.43
Last 45 days 8-12 289-337 43.09 12-6-2 277-307-42 42.95
Last 60 days 8-12 289-339 43.01 12-6-2 278-308-42 42.95
Last 90 days 8-12 289-339 43.01 12-6-2 278-308-42 42.95
Vs. Right handed pitchers 7-7 208-248 47.81 10-4-0 205-221-30 40.23
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 4-9 200-232 38.54 7-5-1 185-220-27 48
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 2-5 78-111 34.92 3-2-2 86-87-16 45.15
TEAM: LOS ANGELES
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.02 3.85
Home Games Avg 3.7 4.5
Road Games Avg 4.33 3.24
Last 3 Games Avg 5.33 4.67
Last 5 Games Avg 3.6 4
Last 10 Games Avg 4.1 4.2
vs. Division Games Avg 3.96 3.58
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.91 3.94
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4.67 3.33
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.74 4.42
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.33 3.33
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.42 3.37
After a Win Games Avg 3.8 4.45
After a Lost Games Avg 4 3.16
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.23 4
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.43 3.14
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3 5.29
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.33 3.17
After an Over Games Avg 4.3 4.05
After an Under Games Avg 3.89 3.83
After a Push Games Avg 1 1.5
3.58 3.53

 

The report doesn’t really speak highly of either team here, actually.

But all things considered, just like with the ATS STATS, Miami is markedly worse off in comparison to the Dodgers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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