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Pittsburgh Pirates (Liriano) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Peralta) – Preview May 14th, 2014

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 
O/U :7.5

4.24

Vs.

Date: 2014-05-14
Time: 19:10:00

Generated from 46 Previous Games

Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
SIDE :-115

4.12 = 8.36

 

You know….the last few times we’ve seen this kind of value, things have turned out to be too good to be true. For this reason, we’ll only be playing a 1/2 unit on this pick. That said, this kind of value can’t be left alone.

I assume that Gomez having left last night’s game with back issues and the fact that he might not be playing tonight, might be the reason we’re seeing this kind of value…

So the question is , “do the Brewers need Gomez to win?”

Actually, probably yeah, they do…under normal circumstances.

But in tonight’s matchup, we’re stuck with an umpire who has an extremely tight strike zone.

As we saw with NYM last night, it’s not the better bats vs small SZs that win, but rather, it’s the better pitching that wins. This game will likely be over the total, and I suspect that MILWAUKEE, with the better pitching, will be the prevailing victors due to not only their superior pitching, but also due to their dominance over left-handed pitchers, averaging 4.9 runs per game vs LH pitchers.

There is lots that can go wrong with this pick however.

Umpires with small strike-zones are particularly hard on young and inexperienced pitchers. So on this point, Liriano knows what to expect and should be able to keep his cool, where Peralta might have some issues managing his temper as he tries to locate and target the Strike-Zone of Dan Iassogna. This consideration is the point where Pittsburgh could win it. Looking to last night in NYY, we saw 2 younger pitchers that were new to MLB, and they both gave up 3 or more runs in the first with a  12-7 final, so Liriano’s experience might be what wins this contest for PITTSBURGH.

But there is one more contributing idea here…

Besides the fact that 100% of Iassogna’s games have gone OVER THE TOTAL, another point to consider, that shouldn’t go overlooked about umpire Iassogna, is the point that all 6 of his plate appearances have resulted in the HOME TEAM winning. What can I say? Umpires are only human and some of them love making the crowd cheer!

How much you want to bet that he adds 3 inches to the strike zone when Peralta is pitching?

In tonight’s matchup, look for Liriano to get frustrated with Iassogna’s small and shifty SZ, but watch for Iassogna’s SZ to be more forgiving with Peralta on the bump.

We could analyze the numbers for this contest, but with an extreme umpire, the context changes. MILWAUKEE has the better pitching, the bullpens are equal and the MILWAUKEE has the hitting considering they’re up against a LH pitcher. (minus Gomez puts the hitting matchup at about equal)

PITCHING: Advantage MIL
BULLPEN: Equalish
HITTING: Equalish

Did you know:

  • MILWAUKEE is 7-1 against PITTSBURGH this season

Did you know:

  • LIRIANO is 6-4 vs MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 4.47 and a WHIP of 1.359.
  • PERALTA is 2-0 vs PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 2.77 and a WHIP of 1.231.

Did you know:

  • PITTSBURGH is 4-11 on the road.
  • MILWAUKEE is 16-8 following a win.
  • MILWAUKEE is 6-1 vs LH Pitchers.

 

 

ATS STATS

Historical stats to SUPPORT the MILWAUKEE pick:

When MILWAUKEE played as a home team – During Last 5 Years or More – Won Last Game by 3 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 4 Win 3 Lost in L7G 25 – 14 – 0
When MILWAUKEE Played as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years – Won Last Game by 3 Runs 17 – 11 – 0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Last 2 years – Vs NL CENTRAL opponent – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 3 run win 13-8-0
When MILWAUKEE team Played as home team as a Favorite – Last 3 years – Total is 7.5 29-11-0
When MILWAUKEE team played as a home team – Total is 7.5 – Vs Division Opponent 37-23-0
When MILWAUKEE team Played as home team as a Favorite – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – During the month of May 30-18-0
When MILWAUKEE team played as a Home team – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 7-4-0
When MILWAUKEE team played as a Home team – Before a division game – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Allowed 2 runs AGAINST in their last game 11-4-0
When MILWAUKEE team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a division game – During a night game – Coming off a 3 game winning streak – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 13-7-0
When MILWAUKEE team played as a Home team – During a night game – Playing on Wednesday – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Allowed 2 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 18-9-0
When MILWAUKEE team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a division game – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Allowed 2 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 31-13-0
When MILWAUKEE played as Favourite- Vs PITTSBURGH 25-10-0
When MILWAUKEE played as Home Team- Vs PITTSBURGH 21-9-0
When MILWAUKEE played as Home Favourite- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 25-15-0
When PITTSBURGH played as Road Team- Vs MILWAUKEE 16-59-0
When PITTSBURGH played as Home or Away Team- Vs NL CENTRAL 8-16-1
When PITTSBURGH played as Road Team- With a spread between 100 and 120 3-8-4
When PITTSBURGH team played as a 100 to 120 Road Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 3 run lost 3-7-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a night game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 10-24-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Before a conference game – During a night game – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 2 game losing streak 3-10-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Allowed 5 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 4-14-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as road team as a Underdog – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Playing on Wednesday 18-34-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog – Total is 7.5 – Last 2 years 3-8-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a road team – Total is 7.5 – Playing on Wednesday 6-15-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a road team – During the month of May – Playing on Wednesday 11-26-0
When PITTSBURGH Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 5 Years – Lost Last Game by 3 Runs or More 37 – 88 – 1

 

Historical stats to THREATEN the MILWAUKEE pick:

When LIRIANO FRANCISCO ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- in the month of May 9-6-0
When LIRIANO FRANCISCO ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 18-12-0
When MILWAUKEE played as Home or Away Team- in the month of May 7-13-0

 

So the Brewers have a small real-time advantage and ATS Stats is showing that they definitely have the historical precedence as well.

 

Let’s turn to the Raymond Report and try to understand how MILWAUKEE stacks up vs PITTSBURGH in comparison to the rest of the league:

RAYMOND REPORT

 

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB
Game Date – 2014-05-14
Road Team :- (3411) PITTSBURGH
Home Team :- (3412 )MILWAUKEE

 

PITTSBURGHTeam Name: PITTSBURGH(Road Team)
Money Line: PITTSBURGH +110 vs MILWAUKEE -120
Spread Line: PITTSBURGH +1.5 -210 —– MILWAUKEE -1.5 +175
O/U: PITTSBURGH 7.5 -115 —– MILWAUKEE 7.5 -105
Pitchers: PITTSBURGH – F Liriano (L) vs MILWAUKEE – W Peralta (R)
Game Date: Wednesday,May 14 2014 7:10 PM
Last Game: lost 2 – 5 vs Milwaukee Brewers
Current Game: Milwaukee Brewers
Next Game: At MILWAUKEE
Stats & Trends: PITTSBURGH vs. MILWAUKEE
PVI Rating on Winning: 41.67%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 51.52%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 51.02%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 1 Push
Road Teams % of winning this game: 33%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 60%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.57
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.05
Road Team
(PITTSBURGH)
When PITTSBURGH is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When PITTSBURGH is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 2-2 64-71 48.71 2-2-0 74-61-0 47.6
vs Division opponent 3-10 146-177 34.14 5-7-1 150-148-25 54
vs Conference opponent (since 1996) 231-377 86-105 41.51 273-305-30 78-97-16 54.1
Playing in the month of May 0-3 85-109 21.91 0-2-1 83-93-18 76.42
Playing on Wednesday 0-3 42-60 20.59 1-2-0 38-58-6 63.55
Played as road Underdog 1-13 181-274 23.46 2-11-1 190-228-37 69.59
After a Division Game 3-11 138-176 32.69 5-8-1 148-143-23 55.34
After a Conference Game 0-1 91-111 22.53 0-1-0 81-106-15 78.34
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 3-10 59-64 35.53 5-7-1 54-61-8 55.69
vs NL Conference Opponent 3-10 151-191 33.62 5-7-1 147-163-32 55.46
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 3-11 60-66 34.53 5-8-1 52-64-10 58.36
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 3-11 141-187 32.21 5-8-1 144-155-29 56.69
Coming off a 2 losing streak 0-1 43-34 27.92 0-1-0 37-39-1 75.66
Coming off 1 push (since 1996) 20-46 17-19 38.76 30-34-2 15-19-2 54.51
Coming off a lost 2-11 168-215 29.62 3-9-1 152-200-31 65.91
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 1-7 98-128 27.93 2-6-0 87-120-19 66.49
During a night game 1-10 188-243 26.36 4-6-1 194-203-34 55.57
Coming off a 3 runs loss 0-1 20-22 23.81 1-0-0 20-20-2 25
Coming off a score 2 runs FOR in last game 1-2 32-33 41.28 1-2-0 32-31-2 57.94
Coming off a score 5 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 65-90 32-39 43.51 76-71-8 36-28-7 46.03
vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % 0-1 27-38 20.77 0-0-1 23-38-4 31.15
vs MILWAUKEE (since 1996) 46-87 9-13 37.75 64-61-8 6-15-1 60.12
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 2-8 33-33 35 3-6-1 26-31-9 60.53
Coming off a night game 2-9 180-228 31.15 3-7-1 173-201-34 61.87
Coming off a game 1 of a series 1-4 85-100 32.98 2-3-0 85-84-16 54.85
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 1-3 48-59 34.93 1-3-0 50-47-10 61.73
Last 30 days 1-10 191-255 25.96 2-8-1 184-222-40 67.34
Last 45 days 3-14 279-363 30.56 5-11-1 281-315-46 60.8
Last 60 days 3-14 281-363 30.64 5-11-1 282-316-46 60.8
Last 90 days 3-14 281-363 30.64 5-11-1 282-316-46 60.8
Vs. Right handed pitchers 1-14 189-272 23.84 4-10-1 196-233-32 62.87
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 2-9 209-249 31.91 2-8-1 199-225-34 66.54
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 2-10 116-148 30.31 3-8-1 104-142-18 65.23
TEAM: PITTSBURGH
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.63 4
Home Games Avg 4.43 4.13
Road Games Avg 2.53 3.82
Last 3 Games Avg 3.67 4.67
Last 5 Games Avg 4.2 4.2
Last 10 Games Avg 4.9 5.1
vs. Division Games Avg 3.73 4.07
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.88 4.15
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 2.43 3.29
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 4 4.81
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4 3.6
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 0.25 1.25
After a Win Games Avg 3.6 4.93
After a Lost Games Avg 4.2 3.7
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.33 6
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.22 3.33
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.92 4.67
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.18 4
After an Over Games Avg 3.69 5.31
After an Under Games Avg 3.75 3.35
After a Push Games Avg 3.33 2.67
3.57 4.05
MILWAUKEETeam Name: MILWAUKEE(Home Team)
Money Line: MILWAUKEE -120 vs PITTSBURGH +110
Spread Line: MILWAUKEE -1.5 +175 —– PITTSBURGH +1.5 -210
O/U: MILWAUKEE 7.5 -105 —– PITTSBURGH 7.5 -115
Pitchers: MILWAUKEE – W Peralta (R) vs PITTSBURGH – F Liriano (L)
Game Date: Wednesday,May 14 2014 7:10 PM
Last Game: win 2 – 5 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Current Game: Pittsburgh Pirates
Next Game: Vs. PITTSBURGH
Stats & Trends: MILWAUKEE vs. PITTSBURGH
PVI Rating on Winning: 64.1%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 52.63%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 57.14%
Streaks: 3 SU Win – 1 Push
Home Teams % of winning this game: 53%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 53%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.99
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.67
Home Team
(MILWAUKEE)
When MILWAUKEE is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When MILWAUKEE is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 3-3 64-71 48.71 4-2-0 74-61-0 39.26
vs Division opponent 7-3 145-178 57.45 1-8-1 150-148-25 69.28
vs Conference opponent 4-5 93-98 46.57 2-7-0 78-97-16 66.61
Playing in the month of May 4-3 91-103 52.03 5-1-1 83-93-18 34.76
Playing on Wednesday 2-2 46-56 47.55 0-4-0 38-58-6 80.21
Played as home Favorite 11-8 224-214 54.52 5-13-1 190-212-36 62.48
After a Division Game 6-3 153-169 57.1 2-7-0 149-149-24 63.89
After a Conference Game 3-6 103-100 42.04 3-6-0 81-106-16 61.68
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 7-3 67-65 60.38 1-8-1 47-74-11 75.03
vs NL Conference Opponent 11-8 168-182 52.95 3-15-1 143-174-33 69.11
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 6-3 62-63 58.14 2-7-0 46-69-10 68.89
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 9-9 165-181 48.85 4-14-0 139-177-30 66.9
Coming off a 3 winning streak 2-1 11-18 52.3 0-3-0 11-16-2 79.63
Coming off 1 push (since 1996) 38-30 12-19 47.3 27-37-4 13-15-3 55.69
Coming off a win 8-5 118-158 52.15 3-9-1 121-133-22 63.68
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 6-4 77-94 52.52 3-6-1 74-83-14 59.77
During a night game 9-6 193-238 52.39 5-9-1 194-203-34 57.71
Coming off a 7 home stand (since 1996) 2-6 4-2 45.84 5-3-0 1-5-0 60.42
Coming off a 3 runs win 2-1 16-24 53.34 1-2-0 18-18-4 58.34
Coming off a score 5 runs FOR in last game 3-2 32-38 52.86 2-3-0 31-33-6 55.78
Coming off a score 2 runs AGAINST in last game 7-0 33-36 73.92 1-6-0 27-40-2 72.71
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 3-2 106-122 53.25 0-4-1 101-110-17 76.07
vs PITTSBURGH (since 1996) 87-46 10-7 62.12 64-61-8 5-11-1 58.78
Coming off a Win over NL CENTRAL division opponent 4-2 25-29 56.49 1-5-0 21-28-5 70.24
Coming off a night game 9-6 197-232 52.96 4-11-0 187-208-34 63
Coming off a game 1 of a series 3-4 86-99 44.68 3-4-0 85-84-16 53.42
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 2-3 45-52 43.2 2-3-0 46-42-9 53.87
Last 30 days 9-7 204-242 51 6-9-1 184-222-40 57.34
Last 45 days 13-9 298-344 52.76 6-15-1 281-315-46 62.14
Last 60 days 13-9 298-346 52.68 6-15-1 282-316-46 62.14
Last 90 days 13-9 298-346 52.68 6-15-1 282-316-46 62.14
Vs. Left handed pitchers 3-1 83-95 60.82 2-2-0 73-92-13 52.88
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 11-8 207-238 52.21 5-13-1 188-227-30 63.46
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 5-4 80-113 48.51 2-6-1 87-89-17 62.79
TEAM: MILWAUKEE
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.95 3.55
Home Games Avg 3.41 3.05
Road Games Avg 4.61 4.17
Last 3 Games Avg 5.33 3.67
Last 5 Games Avg 4.2 3.8
Last 10 Games Avg 4.1 3.9
vs. Division Games Avg 3.48 4
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.74 3.53
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 5.17 3.67
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.5 4.5
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.33 3.33
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.67 3.52
After a Win Games Avg 3.88 3.88
After a Lost Games Avg 3.79 3.21
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.58 3.75
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.2 3.6
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.17 4
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.56 3
After an Over Games Avg 4.33 3.89
After an Under Games Avg 3.71 3.43
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
3.99 3.67

 

Wow. The Raymond Report is showing that there is no comparison here.

So at -117, we can only come to one conclusion…

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: MILWAUKEE to win 6-4.

 

 

 

 

 

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