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Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) vs. Los Angeles Angels (Weaver) – Preview May 16th, 2014

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 
O/U :8.53.68
Vs.Date: 2014-05-16
Time: 21:05:00Generated from 48 Previous Games
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels
SIDE :-137
4.16 = 7.84

 

So firstly, we really like the Rockies today, as well as the Yankees, but there is chances for precipitation and PP, so we’ll give you a game that’s secure from whether.

As a 3rd pick, there is no question that the Angles have enough bang for the buck to justify our attention. The Angels have won 6 of their last 7 including several wins as dogs.

Let’s look a little further into what makes this the game for us tonight:

PITCHING

On the bump for Tampa Bay tonight is Chris Archer. He doesn’t have enough history with the Angels to establish a historical trend, but it needs to be noted that in his 1 or 2 outings, he did show good numbers vs LAA. With that said, Archer has +40 innings pitched this season so far and he’s established himself as a lower tier pitcher without doubt. Archer is showing a unworthy 5.16ERA all games, 6.35ERA on the road, and he’s a miserable 7.36L3G. The problem with stats this bad is that there is a chance that the pressure can force elite level performance that comes completely out of nowhere. All in all, the only assessment that’s fair to make is to state that Archer is vulnerable and an excellent target for the Los Angeles Angels’ bats who are in 4th place in the league with a .751OPS.

On the bump for Los Angeles tonight is Jered Weaver. Weaver is showing excellent numbers recently, and not only that, but he’s been shutting down the best bats in the leauge. Most notably would be Weaver’s last appearance where he held the Toronto Blue Jays, who have arguably the hottest bats in the league, to a meager 4 hits and 1 skimpy ER. Weaver is a solid 3.22ERA across all games, and he’s 3.42ERA at home, but his L3G have been outstanding where he’s accrued an eyebrow-raising 1.83ERA.

  • Chris Archer has an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.090 in his 2 starts vs LAA.
  • Jered Weaver has an ERA of 3.92 and a WHIP of 1.099 in his 7 starts vs TBR.

 

 

BATTING

Tampa Bay has reasonable bats. They’re averaging 4.1 runs per game across all games and 4.2 vs RH pitchers. The one area of concern with Tampa is their road bats where they’re only batting 3.3 runs per game. The Rays are mid-fare at 15th in the league with a .709OPS.

Los Angeles has some of the heaviest timber in the league. They are 5.0 runs per game across all games.They are 4.9 at home and are particularly hot vs RH pitchers batting an average of 5.5 runs per game vs LH Pitchers. The Angles are a promising 4th in the league with a .751OPS.

 

 

BULLPEN

The Tampa Bay bullpen is vulnerable. With bats such as the Angels’, even if Archer happens to throw some great ball, the Angels will still have about 3 innings to pound away on the Rays’ bullpen.

The Los Angeles bullpen is suspect. Although the Rays should be outright stymied by Weaver’s start tonight, regardless of their road batting average, they will have an opportunity to play sort out the Angels’ bullpen. If they can somehow keep it close in the front 6, they might just have chances on the back 3.

 

 

UMPIRE

Adam Hamari is an even keeled umpire with balanced stats in terms of having an average strike zone and not proving any bias towards the home/away teams.

He probably won’t factor into tonight’s decision.

 

 

ATS STATS DATABASE

Historical stats that SUPPORT the LAA pick:

When LOS ANGELES ANGELS played as Home Favourite- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 45-30-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a night game – Coming off a 3 game under – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 8-5-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a conference game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game 11-5-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a Home team – Vs AL Conference – During a night game – Coming off a 1 run win – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game 6-4-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – During a night game – Coming off a 3 game under – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 10-2-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a home team – Last 2 years – Playing on Friday 17-11-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a home team – Playing on Friday – Before a non division game 98-62-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Playing on Friday – Before a conference game 18-11-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a conference game – During a night game 302-187-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Before a non division game 342-225-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Coming off vs. American League opponent – 2nd game of a series – Before a non division game – Coming off a night game – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Coming off a 3 game under 38-11-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs AL EAST opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a night game – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Coming off a 3 game under 19-9-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – During a night game – Vs AL EAST opponent – Playing on Friday – Coming off a 1 run win 16-8-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS Played as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With 3 Under or More – With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G 7 – 3 – 0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G 51 – 33 – 0

 

When TAMPA BAY team played as a Road team – Before a conference game – During a night game – Coming off a Home win – Coming off a 1 run win 6-16-0
When TAMPA BAY team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a night game – Vs AL WEST opponent – Coming off a Home win – Coming off a Home win as a Underdog 2-8-0
When TAMPA BAY team played as a Road team – During a night game – Before a non division game – Coming off a 1 run win – Coming off a Home win as a Underdog 1-10-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 120 to 140 Road Underdog – After a conference game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Vs Conference Opponent – Coming off back to back Shutouts offense 4-17-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs AL Conference – Last 5 years – Before a conference game – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Coming off a 3 game under 11-22-0

 

 

Historical stats that THREATEN the LAA pick:

When TAMPA BAY team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – During a night game – Last 2 years 9-6-0

 

I think the historical record is crystal clear on this point. We’ve seen stronger cases, but this is definitely leaning towards LAA with the chances to win tonight’s contest. Positionally speaking, the Angels have everything tilted in their favour.

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

Game Date – 2014-05-16
Road Team :- (3431) TAMPA BAY
Home Team :- (3432 )LOS ANGELES ANGELS

 

TAMPA BAYTeam Name: TAMPA BAY(Road Team)
Money Line: TAMPA BAY +127 vs LOS ANGELES ANGELS -137
Spread Line: TAMPA BAY +1.5 -165 —– LOS ANGELES ANGELS -1.5 +145
O/U: TAMPA BAY 8 -110 —– LOS ANGELES ANGELS 8 -110
Pitchers: TAMPA BAY – C Archer (R) vs LOS ANGELES ANGELS – Jd Weaver (R)
Game Date: Friday,May 16 2014 9:05 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Los Angeles Angels
Current Game: Los Angeles Angels
Next Game: At LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Stats & Trends: TAMPA BAY vs. LOS ANGELES ANGELS
PVI Rating on Winning: 41.03%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 40.54%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 48.98%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 2 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 39%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 54%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.38
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.88
Road Team
(TAMPA BAY)
When TAMPA BAY is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When TAMPA BAY is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8 2-4 39-58 36.77 3-2-1 44-47-6 45.83
vs Non-Division opponent 6-8 147-197 42.8 7-7-0 141-182-21 53.18
vs Conference opponent 4-7 95-113 41.02 6-5-0 86-106-16 50.33
Playing in the month of May 4-4 98-123 47.17 4-4-0 93-110-18 52.1
Playing on Friday 2-1 39-55 54.08 2-1-0 49-37-8 38.18
Played as road Underdog 1-10 186-285 24.29 5-6-0 196-238-37 54.7
After a Non-Division Game 6-10 147-190 40.56 8-7-1 135-180-22 51.91
After a Conference Game 5-7 100-119 43.67 6-6-0 89-115-15 53.19
vs AL EAST Division Opponent 2-7 52-56 35.19 3-5-1 47-56-5 58.44
vs AL Conference Opponent 6-14 136-176 36.8 9-10-1 139-159-14 53
Coming off vs AL WEST Division Opponent 2-2 44-53 47.68 1-3-0 39-48-10 65.09
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 7-13 138-172 39.76 9-11-0 134-160-16 54.71
Coming off 1 over 1-4 63-82 31.73 3-1-1 69-61-15 35.96
Coming off a lost 6-10 177-222 40.93 5-10-1 158-210-31 61.87
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 4-3 103-135 50.21 1-5-1 92-127-19 70.66
During a night game 5-10 196-250 38.64 6-8-1 200-212-34 54.3
Coming off a 4 road trip (since 1996) 5-13 3-11 24.61 9-9-0 4-9-1 59.62
Coming off a 1 runs loss 0-1 48-49 24.74 1-0-0 39-51-7 28.34
Coming off a score 5 runs FOR in last game 1-1 27-32 47.88 1-1-0 28-25-6 48.59
Coming off a score 6 runs AGAINST in last game 0-1 15-29 17.05 1-0-0 17-23-4 28.75
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 4-3 86-94 52.46 4-3-0 81-85-14 47.03
vs LOS ANGELES ANGELS (since 1996) 29-46 10-9 45.65 41-33-1 13-5-1 36.19
Coming off a Lost over AL WEST division opponent 1-1 25-36 45.49 0-2-0 19-33-9 81.73
Coming off a game that went over 1-4 63-82 31.73 3-1-1 69-61-15 35.96
Coming off a night game 6-8 192-241 43.6 5-9-0 182-217-34 59.34
Coming off a game 1 of a series 4-3 90-102 52.01 1-6-0 87-89-16 68.14
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 3-2 51-60 52.98 0-5-0 52-49-10 74.26
Coming off back to back Shutouts deffence (since 1996) 2-4 7-13 34.17 3-3-0 7-10-3 54.41
Last 30 days 5-10 192-255 38.14 8-7-0 185-224-38 50.72
Last 45 days 8-15 286-369 39.22 10-12-1 284-326-45 54
Last 60 days 8-15 294-377 39.3 10-12-1 292-333-46 53.92
Last 90 days 8-15 294-377 39.3 10-12-1 292-333-46 53.92
Vs. Right handed pitchers 5-10 199-282 37.35 7-8-0 203-246-32 54.06
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 5-6 68-111 41.72 4-6-1 79-89-11 56.49
Coming off lost vs. Left handed pitcher 1-3 45-59 34.14 0-3-1 40-52-12 78.26
TEAM: TAMPA BAY
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.86 4.26
Home Games Avg 5.05 4.15
Road Games Avg 2.83 4.35
Last 3 Games Avg 3 2.33
Last 5 Games Avg 3.8 5
Last 10 Games Avg 3.6 4.4
vs. Division Games Avg 3.9 3.8
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.98 4.25
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 2.33 4.33
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.75 3.75
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.06 4.31
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.58 4.42
After a Win Games Avg 4 4.88
After a Lost Games Avg 3.61 4.13
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.88 6
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 2.18 3.09
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 5.13 3.75
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.92 5.08
After an Over Games Avg 4.5 4.41
After an Under Games Avg 2.94 4.33
After a Push Games Avg 2.5 3
3.38 3.88
LOS ANGELES ANGELSTeam Name: LOS ANGELES ANGELS(Home Team)
Money Line: LOS ANGELES ANGELS -137 vs TAMPA BAY +127
Spread Line: LOS ANGELES ANGELS -1.5 +145 —– TAMPA BAY +1.5 -165
O/U: LOS ANGELES ANGELS 8 -110 —– TAMPA BAY 8 -110
Pitchers: LOS ANGELES ANGELS – Jd Weaver (R) vs TAMPA BAY – C Archer (R)
Game Date: Friday,May 16 2014 9:05 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Current Game: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Next Game: Vs. TAMPA BAY
Stats & Trends: LOS ANGELES ANGELS vs. TAMPA BAY
PVI Rating on Winning: 53.85%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 42.11%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 38.78%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 2 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 49%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 49%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.63
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.27
Home Team
(LOS ANGELES ANGELS)
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When LOS ANGELES ANGELS is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8 4-1 50-47 65.78 3-1-1 44-47-6 38.33
vs Non-Division opponent 7-3 162-182 58.55 7-3-0 141-182-21 43.18
vs Conference opponent 5-2 100-108 59.76 4-3-0 86-106-16 49.04
Playing in the month of May 3-4 102-119 44.51 3-3-1 93-110-18 52.1
Playing on Friday 1-1 50-44 51.6 1-1-0 49-37-8 46.51
Played as home Favorite 9-8 233-221 52.13 12-4-1 196-222-36 39.06
After a Non-Division Game 5-5 145-184 47.04 6-4-0 135-173-21 48.09
After a Conference Game 5-2 109-109 60.72 4-3-0 88-114-16 49.65
vs AL EAST Division Opponent 2-2 48-59 47.43 2-2-0 50-55-2 51.19
vs AL Conference Opponent 7-9 134-174 43.63 10-5-1 144-151-13 42.26
Coming off vs AL EAST Division Opponent 1-2 45-64 37.31 2-1-0 49-56-4 43.33
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 7-7 127-167 46.6 9-4-1 140-139-15 40.3
Coming off a 3 winning streak 0-1 11-21 17.19 0-1-0 11-19-2 81.67
Coming off 1 over 3-2 75-77 54.67 4-1-0 73-66-13 33.74
Coming off a win 4-5 121-167 43.23 5-4-0 126-140-22 48.54
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 2-5 79-100 36.35 3-4-0 77-88-14 55.24
During a night game 8-9 197-249 45.62 11-5-1 200-212-34 41.36
Coming off a 1 runs win 0-1 34-61 17.9 1-0-0 38-49-8 28.16
Coming off a score 6 runs FOR in last game 3-0 25-21 77.18 2-1-0 19-23-4 44.05
Coming off a score 5 runs AGAINST in last game 1-0 29-25 76.85 0-0-1 27-23-4 23
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 6-0 112-130 73.14 5-1-0 106-119-17 34.78
vs TAMPA BAY (since 1996) 46-29 12-11 56.75 41-33-1 10-12-1 49.57
Coming off a Win over AL EAST division opponent 0-1 16-36 15.39 0-1-0 22-29-1 78.43
Coming off a game that went over 3-2 75-77 54.67 4-1-0 73-66-13 33.74
Coming off a night game 7-8 206-247 46.07 11-3-1 195-224-34 37.45
Coming off a game 1 of a series 2-4 87-105 39.32 4-1-1 87-89-16 35.29
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 1-2 46-55 39.44 2-1-0 48-44-9 40.58
Coming off back to back Shutouts deffence (since 1996) 4-4 4-11 38.34 6-2-0 2-11-2 54.81
Last 30 days 7-4 208-239 55.09 6-4-1 185-224-38 47.39
Last 45 days 9-9 301-354 47.98 12-5-1 284-326-45 41.43
Last 60 days 9-10 309-362 46.71 13-5-1 292-333-46 40.53
Last 90 days 9-10 309-362 46.71 13-5-1 292-333-46 40.53
Vs. Right handed pitchers 6-7 224-263 46.08 8-5-0 217-237-33 45.33
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 4-4 84-102 47.58 6-1-1 87-84-15 31.71
Coming off win vs. Left handed pitcher 1-1 39-46 47.94 2-0-0 34-46-5 28.75
TEAM: LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 5.05 4.23
Home Games Avg 4.89 5.53
Road Games Avg 5.19 3.05
Last 3 Games Avg 4.33 2.67
Last 5 Games Avg 5 3.6
Last 10 Games Avg 4.3 3.8
vs. Division Games Avg 4.53 5.33
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.84 4.5
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 5.88 3.13
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 5.1 4.6
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 5.14 4.36
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.94 3.88
After a Win Games Avg 4.71 4.52
After a Lost Games Avg 5.56 3.56
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.54 3.92
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 5.13 1.88
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 5 5.5
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 5.9 4.9
After an Over Games Avg 5.59 3.64
After an Under Games Avg 4.56 4.06
After a Push Games Avg 3 14
4.63 4.27

 

The Raymond Report, which is like a “Head to Head” analysis comparing how each team stacks up vs the rest of the league, shows LAA with the point in case tonight.

 

  • The real-time stats analysis show LAA to win.
  • The Umpire is balanced and shouldn’t factor.
  • The ATS database historical positional  stats analysis show LAA as standing clearly better.
  • The Raymond Report team comparisons has LAA standing clearly better.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: Los Angeles Angels to win 7-3.

 

 

 

 

 

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