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New York Mets (Colon) vs. Washington Nationals (Gonzalez) – Preview May 17th, 2014

WorldSeriesOfHandicapping.com

New York Mets
New York Mets 
O/U :74.73
Vs.Date: 2014-05-17
Time: 15:05:00Generated from 52 Previous Games
Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
SIDE :-147
5.26 = 9.99

PITCHING

A lot of pitchers have started off slowly but are starting to settle into their own but Colon is lagging in this regard and has been a consistent pitcher to fade. Although Colon is 1-2 and has posted a 2.35ERA and a whip of 1.218 over his last 3 outings vs Washington, his season record in 2014, could override his historical success vs the Nationals. One more point on Colon, out of a combined 15AB vs Desmond, McClouth, Rendon, Worth and Span, (all confirmed in today’s lineup), only Span marks under a .333AVG.  Without this point, it would be impossible to justify WSH at -150.

Gio Gonzalez was blown away by Oakland last game, but his record has been overall stable all season. Gonzalez marks historical dominance over the Mets and is 6-1 vs the Mets with an ERA of 2.45 and a WHIP of 1.018. Gonzalez has exceptional versus numbers vs most of the Mets batters and a good ERA overall.

HITTING

The Mets are averaging 4.0 runs a game, but they’re 4.6 L7G, and furthermore, they’re marking 5.0 vs LH pitchers. It’s tough to understand how the Mets could be ranked one of the lower tiered teams in the hitting category with numbers like these. That said, they do tend to choke a little but against division opponents where they slump to a 3.4 R/G average.

The Nationals are averaging 4.0 runs a game as well, but they’re a sloppy 3.0 L7G. That said, they tend to show up for division rivals as they are 4.7 vs division opponents so far this season. In terms of key numbers, we feel that the L7G tally of 3.0 runs per game most accurately describes the state of what we should expect out there tonight. After losing the likes of Harper a few weeks ago, and then LaRoche last week…Washington will have their work cut out for them. If Washington were up against basically any other pitcher, all bets would be off due to their shortage in batting.

BULLPEN

Given the excellence of Gonzalez and the weakness in the Washington lineup, I could easily see this game going into extra innings tied at 3-3. So again, even in this scenario, we’ve got the Mets with a reasonable bullpen at 3.65ERA, but the Washington pen is among the top in the league at an overall 2.21ERA, and especially have home with a 1.86ERA. After all is said and done, this is the only real crystal clear advantage that we can actually bank on for certain. That’s to say, on their worst day, the Washington bullpen is still better than the Mets’ on their best…if things come down to that.

UMPIRE

Ed Hickox has the plate today. Although the visitors are 6-2 when he’s behind the plate, only 2 of those wins were upsets so that’s perfectly within reason. He is completely within spec and we shouldn’t factor in a home/away advantage with Hickox.

Ed’s games tend to sway toward the Under side of things (71.4%), but pitchers are keeping a very average ERA (3.50)  and WHIP (1.300) when he’s behind the plate so it’s hard to say outright that it’s because he has a massive strike-zone. Most likely, there has simply been below average batting in most of the games.

All-in-all, Hickox is within spec and his stats indicate that he shouldn’t factor into the outcome of this game.

ATS STATS

Historical trends to SUPPORT the Washington pick:

When WASHINGTON Played as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years or Less – Won Last Game by 3 Runs – With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G 10 – 4 – 0
When WASHINGTON Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years or Less – Won Last Game by 3 Runs – With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G 8 – 3 – 0
When WASHINGTON Played as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years or Less – Won Last Game by 3 Runs or More – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G 26 – 15 – 0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – After a conference game – Before a conference game – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Coming off a Home win – Coming off a 1 game push 42-24-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – 2nd game of a series – During the month of May – Playing on Saturday – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Coming off a night game – Coming off a 3 run win 14-6-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Last 2 years – After a conference game – 2nd game of a series – Coming off a 3 run win – Coming off a Home win – Scored 5 or less runs FOR in their last game 18-11-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Playing on Saturday – Vs. Right handed pitchers 7-4-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – During a day game – Before a conference game 21-8-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During the month of May 15-7-0
When WASHINGTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a division game – During a day game – Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent – Coming off a 2 game winning streak 8-2-0
When WASHINGTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of May – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent – Coming off a Home win 9-6-0
When WASHINGTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent – Coming off a Home win 15-9-0
When WASHINGTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Vs NL EAST opponent – Coming off a 2 game winning streak – Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent 6-4-0
When WASHINGTON played as Home or Away Team- Vs NL EAST 23-12-0
When WASHINGTON played as Home Favourite- With a spread between 140 and 160 25-15-0
When GONZALEZ GEREMI ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- in the month of May 16-7-0
When GONZALEZ GEREMI ‘s Team played as Home Team- With a spread between 140 and 160 7-3-0
When NY METS played as Underdog- in the month of May 4-9-2
When NY METS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a division game – 2nd game of a series – Scored 2 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 13-26-0
When NY METS team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Vs. Left handed pitchers 4-10-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 140 to 160 Road Underdog – 2nd game of a series – Playing on Saturday – Coming off a 3 run lost – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 8-15-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 140 to 160 Road Underdog – After a conference game – 2nd game of a series – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Allowed 5 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a night game 7-14-0

Historical trends to THREATEN the Washington pick:

When COLON BARTOLO ‘s Team played as Road Team- With a spread between 140 and 160 27-15-0
When COLON BARTOLO ‘s Team played as Road Underdog- in the month of May 16-9-0
When NY METS team played as a Road team – Vs NL Conference – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series – Coming off a Loss vs. NL EAST opponent 15-9-0
When WASHINGTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Playing on Saturday – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Allowed 2 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 3-7-0

So ll things considered, historically speaking, Washington has done better than NYM in their position here today.

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB

Game Date – 2014-05-17
Road Team :- (3009) NY METS
Home Team :- (3010 )WASHINGTON
NY METSTeam Name: NY METS(Road Team)
Money Line: NY METS +143 vs WASHINGTON -155
Spread Line: NY METS +1.5 -158 —– WASHINGTON -1.5 +138
O/U: NY METS 7.5 +100 —– WASHINGTON 7.5 -120
Pitchers: NY METS – B Colon (R) vs WASHINGTON – G Gonzalez (L)
Game Date: Saturday,May 17 2014 3:05 PM
Last Game: lost 2 – 5 vs Washington Nationals
Current Game: Washington Nationals
Next Game: At WASHINGTON
Stats & Trends: NY METS vs. WASHINGTON
PVI Rating on Winning: 46.34%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 50%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 38.78%
Streaks: 3 SU Lost – 1 Push
Road Teams % of winning this game: 36%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 57%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.25
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.47
Road Team
(NY METS)
When NY METS is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When NY METS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 2-4 73-73 41.67 3-3-0 77-69-0 48.63
vs Division opponent 3-12 149-182 32.51 1-9-5 152-153-26 70.08
vs Conference opponent 4-3 102-116 51.97 4-2-1 89-111-18 44.42
Playing in the month of May 3-10 108-129 34.33 5-5-3 98-118-21 52.32
Playing on Saturday 1-1 38-60 44.39 2-0-0 50-38-10 21.59
Played as road Underdog 10-16 192-290 39.15 10-10-6 200-243-39 52.43
After a Division Game 3-10 140-180 33.42 4-6-3 150-147-23 54.75
After a Conference Game 4-4 108-123 48.38 5-2-1 93-121-17 42.56
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 3-12 46-79 28.4 1-9-5 44-64-17 74.63
vs NL Conference Opponent 7-15 163-204 38.12 5-11-6 156-177-34 60.95
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 3-10 43-67 31.09 4-6-3 46-54-10 57
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 7-15 152-200 37.5 6-11-5 152-170-30 58.76
Coming off a 3 losing streak 1-0 13-17 71.67 0-1-0 18-10-2 67.86
Coming off 1 push 2-2 19-22 48.17 1-3-0 17-22-2 65.71
Coming off a lost 5-13 181-227 36.07 7-8-3 161-214-33 55.2
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 4-8 105-138 38.27 6-4-2 93-130-20 49.15
During a day game 2-3 99-127 41.91 1-3-1 93-121-12 65.77
Coming off a 3 runs loss 0-1 21-22 24.42 1-0-0 20-21-2 25.61
Coming off a score 2 runs FOR in last game 1-0 36-35 75.35 1-0-0 34-35-2 25.36
Coming off a score 5 runs AGAINST in last game 1-0 35-42 72.73 1-0-0 37-32-8 23.19
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 4-12 88-99 36.03 5-6-5 81-89-17 53.45
vs WASHINGTON (since 1996) 74-69 9-12 47.31 60-76-7 8-10-3 55.72
Coming off a Lost over NL EAST division opponent 1-9 25-43 23.38 3-5-2 23-37-8 62.09
Coming off a night game 6-14 197-242 37.44 8-8-4 183-221-35 52.35
Coming off a game 1 of a series 3-2 93-102 53.85 3-1-1 88-91-16 37.92
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 1-1 53-60 48.45 2-0-0 53-50-10 24.27
Last 30 days 4-11 196-250 35.31 5-6-4 186-219-41 54.31
Last 45 days 10-17 292-370 40.58 10-11-6 287-328-47 52.86
Last 60 days 10-17 304-383 40.65 10-11-6 297-341-49 52.92
Last 90 days 10-17 304-383 40.65 10-11-6 297-341-49 52.92
Vs. Left handed pitchers 2-7 97-96 36.24 5-2-2 89-90-14 39.43
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 10-10 225-262 48.1 8-8-4 209-241-37 51.78
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 2-9 127-159 31.3 3-5-3 113-154-19 60.09
TEAM: NY METS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.24 3.41
Home Games Avg 2.67 3.29
Road Games Avg 3.74 3.52
Last 3 Games Avg 0.67 3.33
Last 5 Games Avg 4.6 4.8
Last 10 Games Avg 3.4 3.7
vs. Division Games Avg 2.27 2.73
vs. Conference Games Avg 2.98 2.95
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4.86 6.29
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3 3.58
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2.27 3.4
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.92 3.08
After a Win Games Avg 3.63 3.05
After a Lost Games Avg 2.95 3.38
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.1 3.1
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.56 3.44
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 4.22 3
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 2.5 3.33
After an Over Games Avg 4.41 4.53
After an Under Games Avg 2.33 2.92
After a Push Games Avg 3 2
3.25 3.47
WASHINGTONTeam Name: WASHINGTON(Home Team)
Money Line: WASHINGTON -155 vs NY METS +143
Spread Line: WASHINGTON -1.5 +138 —– NY METS +1.5 -158
O/U: WASHINGTON 7.5 -120 —– NY METS 7.5 +100
Pitchers: WASHINGTON – G Gonzalez (L) vs NY METS – B Colon (R)
Game Date: Saturday,May 17 2014 3:05 PM
Last Game: win 2 – 5 vs New York Mets
Current Game: New York Mets
Next Game: Vs. NY METS
Stats & Trends: WASHINGTON vs. NY METS
PVI Rating on Winning: 53.66%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 43.24%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 61.22%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 1 Push
Home Teams % of winning this game: 51%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 51%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.92
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.85
Home Team
(WASHINGTON)
When WASHINGTON is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When WASHINGTON is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 1-2 66-80 39.27 1-2-0 77-69-0 56.97
vs Division opponent 5-2 149-182 58.23 3-3-1 152-153-26 50.08
vs Conference opponent 6-5 102-116 50.67 3-6-2 89-111-18 61.09
Playing in the month of May 3-1 106-131 59.87 1-2-1 98-118-21 60.65
Playing on Saturday 1-2 54-44 44.22 1-1-1 50-38-10 46.59
Played as home Favorite 9-7 237-228 53.61 6-7-3 200-227-38 53.51
After a Division Game 5-3 156-172 55.03 4-4-0 151-152-25 50.09
After a Conference Game 6-5 111-115 51.84 3-7-1 91-117-18 63.13
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 5-2 56-62 59.45 3-3-1 54-49-15 48.79
vs NL Conference Opponent 11-7 178-193 54.55 6-9-3 150-186-35 57.68
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 5-3 57-65 54.61 4-4-0 55-57-10 50.45
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 11-7 175-193 54.33 6-10-2 147-189-32 59.38
Coming off a 2 winning streak 1-1 26-57 40.67 1-1-0 38-38-7 50
Coming off 1 push 2-0 13-23 68.06 1-1-0 15-18-3 52.28
Coming off a win 5-7 124-170 41.93 4-5-3 128-142-24 54.08
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 3-3 80-102 46.98 2-3-1 78-89-15 56.65
During a day game 5-3 112-114 56.03 1-6-1 93-121-12 71.13
Coming off a 3 runs win 1-1 17-25 45.24 2-0-0 19-19-4 25
Coming off a score 5 runs FOR in last game 2-1 35-40 56.67 1-0-2 32-35-8 26.12
Coming off a score 2 runs AGAINST in last game 0-3 33-41 22.3 1-2-0 27-45-2 64.59
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 4-4 115-135 48 3-3-2 109-123-18 51.51
vs NY METS (since 1996) 69-74 10-17 42.65 60-76-7 10-11-6 54.13
Coming off a Win over NL EAST division opponent 3-2 23-21 56.14 3-2-0 27-15-2 37.86
Coming off a night game 8-5 206-254 53.16 7-4-2 198-228-34 44.94
Coming off a game 1 of a series 3-3 87-108 47.31 5-1-0 88-91-16 33.76
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 1-1 46-57 47.33 2-0-0 49-45-9 23.94
Last 30 days 8-7 203-243 49.43 5-7-3 186-219-41 56.2
Last 45 days 12-9 301-361 51.31 8-10-3 287-328-47 54.45
Last 60 days 12-9 313-374 51.35 8-10-3 297-341-49 54.51
Last 90 days 12-9 313-374 51.35 8-10-3 297-341-49 54.51
Vs. Right handed pitchers 8-6 226-274 51.17 4-9-1 221-244-35 60.85
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 1-1 85-105 47.37 1-0-1 89-85-16 24.43
Coming off win vs. Left handed pitcher 3-0 39-47 72.68 1-2-0 34-47-5 62.35
TEAM: WASHINGTON
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4 3.93
Home Games Avg 3.81 3.24
Road Games Avg 4.2 4.65
Last 3 Games Avg 3.67 2
Last 5 Games Avg 3.6 4
Last 10 Games Avg 3.1 4.2
vs. Division Games Avg 4.68 4.16
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.24 3.7
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3 4.88
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.74 4.47
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.3 4.4
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.17 2.67
After a Win Games Avg 3.86 4.1
After a Lost Games Avg 3.89 3.58
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.6 3.9
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.9 4.1
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 4.09 4.27
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.89 3
After an Over Games Avg 3.48 3.95
After an Under Games Avg 4.19 3.69
After a Push Games Avg 5 4
3.92 3.85

The Raymond Report leaves us little doubt as to who the better team is in 2014. The Ray Report is a comparison matrix, and it’s showing that there is no comparison between these teams. That said, we need to factor in the recent injuries to the Washington lineup, namely LaRoche and Harper, and we need to understand that these numbers were mostly posted when they were still in the lineup.

That’s why we do an analysis across all 3 considerations:

  • Real-time stats of ERA, OPS, batter vs pitcher, and recent injuries give us the LIVE POSITION.
  • Historical stats of the ATS Database give us a HISTORICAL POSITION.
  • The Raymond Report gives us a matchup COMPARISON POSITION.

It’s tough to imagine how we could do better than that.

To conclude this analysis:

It’s possible that Colon decides that he’s going to take after his historical precedent vs Washington bats and comes out throwing fire. There are stats to threaten this possibility. (Colon’s last 3 outings vs WSH)

It’s possible that Washington, with LaRoche, Harper, and Lobaton sitting out, and having to depend on Werth, Moore, and Desmond, can’t connect with enough consecutive hits and they get shutdown offensively. There are stats to threaten this possibility. (hitting across L7G)

But it’s not likely.

Even if one or the other came true, Washington would still have chances to win. It would take both unlikelyhoods for us not to make good on the Washington wager and that’s a bet that I’m willing to take.

Today’s Prediction: WASHINGTON to win 4-3.

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