Today’s MLB Analysis
Can you do the splits?
I think this will be a very brief analysis because among all things being equal, there is basically one key point that we intend to bank on today.
‘Masterson! … We’re a callin’ you out!’
Masterson marks a vulnerable 4.31ERA across all games, but improves to a decent 3.30ERA at home and has matched that ERA in this last 3 starts with a 3.32ERA L3G.
Chavez has a comparable L3G marking slightly better with a 2.61ERA L3G. That said, of course Chavez is miles ahead with a 2.44ERA all games and 2.08ERA when pitching on the road.
Since we know full and well that what can go wrong DOES go wrong about 35-40% of the time, we could say that based on the L3G stats, these pitchers are about even.
We could say that Chavez has a fairly rough history concerning:
Aviles .333 (3 AB)
Bourn 1.000 (1 AB)
Cabrera .333 (3 AB)
Murphy .333 (6 AB)
Raburn .600 (5 AB)
Swisher 1.000 (1 AB)
Chances are there is a little bit of chit-chat regarding how best to beat Chavez in the Indians’ dugout. But it’s to be noted that Chavez’s vs stats aren’t from any recent outings whatsoever.
To compound the Cleveland consideration, they are 4.2 R/G all season, but have improved to a walloping 5.0 L7G.
But that’s enough about why Cleveland should win. It’s time to do the splits.
Jesse Chavez pitches:
- 2.08ERA @away games
- 1.38ERA @day games
- 1.84ERA vs LH hitters
- 3.22ERA vs RH hitters
Chavez has been bouncing between A-ball and the Majors since 2008. He continuously marks solid average numbers in the minors, but then comes to the majors only to get wiped out. Last year with Oakland was finally the first year where he seemed to match his numbers from the minors where he pitched a 3.92ERA. This year, so far, he’s 2.44ERA across 8 games.
Look at his splits!!
Whatever this Cleveland roster THINKS they’re going to expect out there…WON’T HAPPEN.
The Indians are in for a crude and rude awakening and it’ll probably only be around the 3rd inning where they finally take Chavez seriously and realize that if they don’t step it up, he’ll be on par for a no-no. Lasting 8 innings in his last outing for his longest career start, Chavez is pumped and only wants to do it again and again.
Let’s look at Masterson’s splits:
- 3.30ERA @home
- 7.36ERA @day games
- 6.45ERA vs LH hitters
- 2.06ERA vs RH hitters
OAKLAND threatens a plethora of LH hitters with the likes of Moss, Jaso, Crisp, Lowrie and Collaspo as LH hitters who not only have marked over .300 vs Masterson, but they all happen to be tallying some nasty averages L7G as well.
I know that Cleveland’s L7G R/G hitting avg. still seems intimidating, so let’s put that myth to rest:
- Oakland hitting is 5.1 all season.
- Oakland hitting is 7.1 L7G!!
- Oakland hitting is 6.0 on the road.
Did you know:
MASTERSON is 2-6 vs OAKLAND with an ERA of 6.97 and a WHIP of 1.569.
To top it off Tom Woodring looks to be behind the plate or possible DiMuro.
If it’s Mike DiMuro then this is open-shut as the visitors have won 7 of the 8 games that he’s umped.
More likely though it will be Woodring behind the plate who doesn’t have a side bias. He’s only umpired 3 games so sorting a trend is tough, but it should be noted that all 3 games were to the OVER of the total. This would indicate a smaller strike zone meaning that generally the better pitcher has the advantage. Junk pitchers that depend on nasty movement to strike out batters could have issues with umpires who’s strike-zone simply doesn’t allow for that extra 1-2 inches of unpredictability.
Masterson’s #1 pitch is the Sinker. It has a nasty break so if Woodring doesn’t give Masterson that bottom inch, then Masterson will have to abandon his #1 pitch or else risk throwing it up in the zone which is asking to have the label peeled. Using the Sinker as your number one pitch will make you a Ground-Out pitcher. This means that even when Oakland gets the man on 1st, they’ll still have to avoid the x-4-3 double play. So if an ump isn’t letting Masterson use that bottom inch or two…it means line drive doubles instead of ground-outs.
Chavez’s #1 pitch is the Cut Fastball meaning that he’s got some motion to his pitch as well. If Woodring is tough on the edges, Chavez will have to make some adjustments as well. To anyone following the pitch tracker, if you see a lot of balls on black, expect Chavez to have to abandon his #1 pitch or else risk putting it right in the wheelhouse of a RH hitter.
Given that the Cutter is a little easier to control than the sinker, the Strike-Zone advantage goes to Chavez. Chavez also uses the Changeup, Curve and 4-seamer religiously as well, so he’s got a big bag of tricks.
If the ump had a big strike zone, then Masterson could strike out a ton of batters swinging at their ankles, but Chavez (depending on how much slop he can put on his cutter and curve) could also use that to his advantage.
Bottom line, if Woodring’s SZ is skinny, then Masterson has a definite advantage here.
But if the SZ is short, then Chavez has a definite advantage.
If it’s skinny AND short, then bet the over 7.5
Consider the over 7.5 here anyway…but at the end of the day…
Today’s Prediction: OAKLAND to win 7-5.