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Arizona Diamondbacks (Miley) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Lynn) – Preview May 22nd, 2014

WorldSeriesOfHandicapping.com

Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 
O/U :7.53.63
Vs.Date: 2014-05-22
Time: 18:15:00

Generated from 71 Previous Games

St Louis Cardinals
St Louis Cardinals
SIDE :-146
4.39 = 8.02

 

PITCHING

Sooner or later, pitchers have to pitch something comparable to their ERA.
We think that in tonight’s game Lynn might deliver.

Lynn is 2.10ERA in home games while Garza is 6.86ERA on the road.
After that, their splits are comparable, vs RH, vs LH, L3G, Night Games…everything even Steven.

 

 

BATTING

Arizona has a batter vs pitcher history of:

  • Goldschmidt is averaging .400 across 5 at bats.
  • Parra is averaging .556 across 9 at bats.
  • Prado is averaging .273 across 11 at pats.

 

St Louis has a batter vs pitcher history of:

  • Carpenter is averaging .800 across 5 at bats.
  • Ellis is averaging .435 across 23 at bats.
  • Holliday is averaging 500 across 4 at bats.
  • Robinson is averaging .500 across 6 at bats.

Aside from a bit of a better ‘versus’ matchup, St Louis is equal with Milwaukee.

Milwaukee is ranked 20th (.OPS)
St Louis is ranked 21st (.OPS)

 

UMPIRE

Cory Blaser has a record with the home team winning 2-7.
However looking into it further, on all instances where the ML underdog was the home team, they lost. If this were not the case, we would be wise to respect that we might have a biased home plate umpire, but at the end of the day, especially over a small sample of 9 games, it makes sense that the better team may very well have been the home team in 7 out of 9 of his plate appearances.

Blaser is 3-3-3 on the OU so Vegas obviously has him dialed, and there is nothing to gain betting totals with Blaser as the plate blue.

 

 

ATS STATS

ATS Stats historical stats to SUPPORT St Louis:

When ST LOUIS played as Home Team- Vs ARIZONA 13-7-0
When L Lynn \’s Team played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 21-14-0
When ST LOUIS played as Favourite- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 60-40-0
When L Lynn \’s Team played as Favourite- in the month of May 9-5-0
When ST LOUIS played as Home Team- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 15-10-0
When L Lynn \’s Team played as Favourite- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 20-10-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a Home team – During a night game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent 12-6-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a Home team – Vs NL Conference – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent 75-41-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a home team – 3rd game of a series – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 73-45-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a home team – 3rd game of a series – During a night game 95-61-0
When ST LOUIS team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs NL Conference – Before a conference game 328-204-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 114-74-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Total is 7.5 18-12-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Total is 7.5 53-31-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a home team – During the month of May – Playing on Thursday 22-13-0
When ST LOUIS team Played as home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Total is 7.5 64-32-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a home team – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Vs Non Division Opponent 135-84-0
When ANY MLB Team (Cardinals) played as a Home team – Last 3 years – Vs NL WEST opponent – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Home win 69-41-0
When ANY MLB Team (Cardinals) played as a Home team – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Playing on Thursday – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Allowed 2 runs AGAINST in their last game 23-15-0
When ANY MLB Team (Cardinals) played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Coming off vs. National League opponent – During the month of May – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a night game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 run win 27-12-0
When ANY MLB Team (Cardinals) played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – During the month of May – Vs NL WEST opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 2 game winning streak – Coming off a night game 10-5-0
When ANY MLB Team (Cardinals) played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Vs NL Conference – Playing on Thursday – During the month of May – Coming off a 1 run win 11-4-0
When ST LOUIS Played as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 84 – 45 – 0
When ST LOUIS Played as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 119 – 85 – 0
When ST LOUIS Played as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 101 – 67 – 0
When ST LOUIS played as any home/road team – During Last 5 Years – With SU Record of 4 Win 3 Lost in L7G 163 – 102 – 0
When ST LOUIS played as a home team – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G 86 – 51 – 0
When ARIZONA team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 1 run lost – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 3-7-0
When ARIZONA team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Before a conference game 24-48-0
When ARIZONA team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Total is 7.5 2-9-0
When ARIZONA team Played as road team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Total is 7.5 33-66-0
When ARIZONA team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – During a night game – Before a conference game 18-39-0
When ARIZONA team Played as road team as a Underdog – Playing on Thursday – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 9-18-0
When ARIZONA team Played as road team as a Underdog – Playing on Thursday – Total is 7.5 3-15-0

 

 

ATS Stats historical stats to THREATEN St Louis:

When W Miley \’s Team played as Road Team- With a spread between 140 and 160 6-4-0
When ARIZONA team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During the month of May 8-5-0

 

So unlike the real-time Batting-Pitching stats, ATS STATS paints a very convincing picture regarding the position of these two teams tonight.

 

 

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Now that we’re a good 6 weeks into the regular season, SOS will start to play a role in our picks.
Let’s take a peek.

ARIZONA 18 – 30 37.50 62.50 51.79 0.45 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 65.3 0.54 7 – 7 50 50 47.45 0.49
ST LOUIS 25 – 21 54.35 45.65 46.73 0.51 6 – 1 85.71 14.29 42.86 0.64 9 – 5 64.29 35.71 50 0.57

 

SOS shows us that while both teams have been steadily improving according to their own standards, STL has been doing so at almost twice the rate of Arizona. Considering that there is a 7 point improvement between their L14G and their L7G, STL should be considered as “on a hot streak”, and we will hopefully be expecting to see more of the same from them tonight.

 

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB
Game Date – 2014-05-22
Road Team :- (3415) ARIZONA
Home Team :- (3416 )ST LOUIS

 

ARIZONATeam Name: ARIZONA(Road Team)
Money Line: ARIZONA +143 vs ST LOUIS -155
Spread Line: ARIZONA +1.5 -165 —– ST LOUIS -1.5 +145
O/U: ARIZONA 7.5 -105 —– ST LOUIS 7.5 -115
Pitchers: ARIZONA – W Miley (L) vs ST LOUIS – L Lynn (R)
Game Date: Thursday,May 22 2014 6:15 PM
Last Game: – vs
Current Game: St Louis Cardinals
Next Game: Vs. ARIZONA
Stats & Trends: ARIZONA vs. ST LOUIS
PVI Rating on Winning: 38.3%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 45.24%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 59.18%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 2 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 47%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 51%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.7
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.75
Road Team
(ARIZONA)
When ARIZONA is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When ARIZONA is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 2-3 84-81 45.46 3-2-0 88-77-0 43.34
vs Non-Division opponent 6-6 176-225 46.95 5-7-0 162-213-26 57.57
vs Conference opponent 4-5 117-132 45.72 4-5-0 100-128-21 55.85
Playing in the month of May 6-5 140-167 50.08 4-6-1 129-152-26 57.05
Playing on Thursday 2-0 41-37 76.28 1-1-0 38-38-2 50
Played as road Team 12-12 336-421 47.2 12-11-1 328-375-54 50.59
After a Non-Division Game 7-3 180-220 57.5 4-6-0 158-214-28 58.77
After a Conference Game 4-6 125-139 43.68 5-5-0 106-138-20 53.28
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 6-6 59-57 50.43 7-4-1 57-51-8 41.79
vs NL Conference Opponent 10-11 178-225 45.9 11-9-1 174-192-37 48.73
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 4-3 67-85 50.61 4-3-0 63-79-10 49.25
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 10-12 166-221 44.17 12-9-1 169-185-33 47.56
Coming off a 2 losing streak 1-2 49-40 44.2 2-1-0 45-42-2 40.81
Coming off 3 under (since 1996) 35-52 20-27 41.39 42-39-6 22-21-4 48.5
Coming off a lost 6-7 199-246 45.44 7-6-0 176-232-37 51.51
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 4-6 119-154 41.8 6-4-0 106-143-24 48.72
During a night game 7-8 229-276 46.01 9-6-0 225-241-39 45.86
Coming off a 1 runs loss 0-1 51-55 24.06 1-0-0 43-55-8 28.06
Coming off a score 2 runs FOR in last game 3-1 42-38 63.75 3-1-0 40-37-3 36.53
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 2-3 40-45 43.53 2-2-1 39-40-6 50.32
vs ST LOUIS (since 1996) 21-40 7-14 33.88 28-31-2 11-8-2 47.33
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 2-2 38-47 47.36 3-1-0 33-43-9 40.79
Coming off a night game 9-5 216-270 54.37 6-7-1 202-244-40 54.28
Last 30 days 8-6 198-241 51.12 6-7-1 187-213-39 53.55
Last 45 days 11-10 285-375 47.78 10-10-1 284-327-49 51.76
Last 60 days 12-12 334-421 47.12 12-11-1 327-374-54 50.59
Last 90 days 12-12 336-421 47.2 12-11-1 328-375-54 50.59
Vs. Right handed pitchers 10-10 230-316 46.06 11-8-1 229-278-39 48.47
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 9-11 248-292 45.47 11-8-1 230-270-40 48.06
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 5-6 140-173 45.09 6-5-0 122-169-22 51.77
TEAM: ARIZONA
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.85 5.23
Home Games Avg 4 5.58
Road Games Avg 3.71 4.88
Last 3 Games Avg 2.33 3.67
Last 5 Games Avg 5 5
Last 10 Games Avg 4.3 4.1
vs. Division Games Avg 4.41 5.52
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.84 5.29
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4 4.33
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.89 5.5
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.33 5.33
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 2.67 4.44
After a Win Games Avg 3.39 4.33
After a Lost Games Avg 4.1 5.72
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4 4.75
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.91 5.18
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.17 3.5
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.22 6.06
After an Over Games Avg 3.52 4.65
After an Under Games Avg 4.32 6
After a Push Games Avg 3.4 4.6
3.7 4.75
ST LOUISTeam Name: ST LOUIS(Home Team)
Money Line: ST LOUIS -155 vs ARIZONA +143
Spread Line: ST LOUIS -1.5 +145 —– ARIZONA +1.5 -165
O/U: ST LOUIS 7.5 -115 —– ARIZONA 7.5 -105
Pitchers: ST LOUIS – L Lynn (R) vs ARIZONA – W Miley (L)
Game Date: Thursday,May 22 2014 6:15 PM
Last Game: – vs
Current Game: Arizona Diamondbacks
Next Game: Vs. ST LOUIS
Stats & Trends: ST LOUIS vs. ARIZONA
PVI Rating on Winning: 53.33%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 53.66%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 55.1%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 51%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 51%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.7
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.17
Home Team
(ST LOUIS)
When ST LOUIS is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When ST LOUIS is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 3-4 74-91 43.86 3-4-0 88-77-0 51.91
vs Non-Division opponent 4-1 187-214 63.32 1-3-1 162-213-26 65.9
vs Conference opponent 4-1 117-132 63.5 1-3-1 100-128-21 65.57
Playing in the month of May 6-3 142-165 56.46 3-4-2 129-152-26 55.62
Playing on Thursday 1-0 31-47 69.87 1-0-0 38-38-2 25
Played as home Team 13-8 349-408 54 11-8-2 328-375-54 47.73
After a Non-Division Game 4-1 171-219 61.93 1-4-0 157-207-26 68.44
After a Conference Game 4-1 127-133 64.43 1-3-1 103-136-21 65.95
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 2-0 59-65 73.79 0-2-0 51-63-10 77.63
vs NL Conference Opponent 13-8 199-206 55.52 11-8-2 164-203-38 48.71
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent 1-0 58-66 73.39 0-1-0 49-63-12 78.13
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 13-8 197-206 55.39 11-8-2 162-206-35 49.05
Coming off a 2 winning streak 1-1 31-61 41.85 0-2-0 40-44-8 76.19
Coming off 2 under (since 1996) 94-69 28-55 45.7 83-77-3 33-45-5 52.91
Coming off a win 5-6 141-185 44.35 5-5-1 140-159-27 51.59
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 5-5 92-110 47.77 4-5-1 86-98-18 54.41
During a night game 6-5 220-285 49.06 5-4-2 225-241-39 48.08
Coming off a 1 runs win 0-3 40-65 19.05 1-2-0 44-53-8 60.66
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game 1-1 33-54 43.97 2-0-0 38-40-9 25.64
Coming off a score 2 runs AGAINST in last game 2-0 37-46 72.29 1-1-0 28-52-3 57.5
vs ARIZONA (since 1996) 40-21 12-12 57.79 28-31-2 12-11-1 50.19
Coming off a Win over NL WEST division opponent 1-0 28-36 71.88 0-1-0 17-39-8 84.82
Coming off a night game 6-5 231-276 50.06 5-5-1 218-250-39 51.71
Last 30 days 9-6 199-240 52.67 6-7-2 187-213-39 53.55
Last 45 days 13-8 307-353 54.21 11-8-2 284-327-49 47.82
Last 60 days 13-8 349-406 54.07 11-8-2 327-374-54 47.73
Last 90 days 13-8 349-408 54 11-8-2 328-375-54 47.73
Vs. Left handed pitchers 1-2 96-108 40.2 2-1-0 83-105-16 44.59
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 8-8 246-287 48.08 10-6-0 219-278-36 46.72
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 4-6 98-132 41.31 4-5-1 101-109-20 53.73
TEAM: ST LOUIS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.74 3.38
Home Games Avg 4.38 3.76
Road Games Avg 3.23 3.08
Last 3 Games Avg 4.33 2.67
Last 5 Games Avg 4.4 2.2
Last 10 Games Avg 4.2 3.9
vs. Division Games Avg 3.9 4
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.74 3.38
vs. Non Conference Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.75 2.25
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.14 3.68
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3 3.13
After a Win Games Avg 3 4.13
After a Lost Games Avg 4.67 2.71
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.42 4.83
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4 2.57
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.58 3.42
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 6 3
After an Over Games Avg 4.42 4.47
After an Under Games Avg 3.65 2.96
After a Push Games Avg 1.75 1.5
3.7 3.17

 

Lastly, the Raymond Report shows that, again, STL is completely outmatching Arizona tonight when a both teams are compared to the league across 25 different key factors.

 

On any one point, this might be a tough call, but when we compile everything, St Louis looks to be above and beyond.

At -155 this doesn’t feel like a steal, but we think the chances to win overcome the odds, even if just barely. So with some skinny value…

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: St Louis to win 6-4.

 

 

 

 

 

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