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Milwaukee Brewers (Estrada) vs. Miami Marlines (Koehler) – Preview May 23rd, 2014

WorldSeriesOfHandicapping.com

Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 
O/U :7

3.67

Vs.

Date: 2014-05-23
Time: 18:10:00

Generated from 55 Previous Games

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
SIDE :-114

3.93 = 7.6

PITCHING
In for the Brewers today is Marco Estrada. Estrada is 3.64ERA on the season but has had a tough time his last 3 starts where he’s marked a 4.76ERA. Johnson, McGeHee and Solano have all tuned him over a .500AVG and they’re all probables to play today (a combined 35 at bats)

In for the Marlins today is Tom Koehler. Koehler is a blazing 2.25ERA pitcher on the season, and has been throwing his best stuff L3G marking a 1.93ERA. Weeks is the only batter for Milwaukee that’s been able to touch him, and all the rest are marking .000 vs Koehler. (Granted only across 7 AB so hardly worth noting)

BULLPEN
Although the prognosis is that Milwaukee has the better bullpen, that might actually be a technicality due to injury and recent performance. MIL is 2.90ERA all season in the pen, but they are 5.64ERA L3G. That said, after we factor in the relievers on the IR, we have a pen that is 3.04ERA all season and 6.88ERA L3G.

Miami’s pen is 3.86ERA all season and it’s 1.52ERA L3G.

Granted, Miami’s have had an easier time vs ATL than Milwaukee has against PHI, but Milwaukee’s sudden dip is substantial enough to warrant some questions and it’s enough to think there might be trouble in paradise for them.

BATTING

  • Milwaukee is batting 20th in league with a .693OPS. Milwaukee’s lineup is officially gutted after Braun left with back tightness last game and won’t be returning today. Gomez is a big “?” as to if he’ll play today after sitting out yesterday. So it’s hard to see who will RBI for the Brewers tonight.
  • Miami is batting 3rd in the league with a .759OPS. Miami’s lineup was threatening to bench Saltalamacchia after twisting his ankle last game, but he has been confirmed as a green light.

Milwaukee is 7-3 vs Miami. This is the time to strike while it’s hot. Miami fans will want some pay back and there is absolutely no reason they shouldn’t get it.

 

PLATE UMPIRE
It’s unclear who’ll lead the rotation for this series.

 

ATS STATS
Stats to SUPPORT the Miami pick:

 

 

When MIAMI played as Home Favourite- Vs MILWAUKEE 27-14-0
When MIAMI played as Home Favourite- Vs NL Central Division 7-3-0
When MIAMI played as Home Favourite- in the month of May 15-7-3
When MIAMI played as Home Team- in the month of May 9-2-4
When MIAMI team played as a Home team – 1st game of a series – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent – Coming off a Home win 8-4-0
When MIAMI team played as a Home team – After a conference game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 1 game push – Scored 4 or less runs FOR in their last game 9-5-0
When MIAMI team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite – Playing on Friday – During a night game 27-18-0
When ANY MLB Team (Marlins) Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 5 years – During the month of May – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a 2 game winning streak 50-24-0

 

 

When MILWAUKEE team played as a Road team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During the month of May – Scored 4 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off 1 over 6-14-0
When MILWAUKEE team played as a Road team – During a night game – 1st game of a series – Coming off a Loss vs. NL EAST opponent – Coming off a 1 game loss 8-16-0
When MILWAUKEE team played as a Road team – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Before a conference game – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 9-17-0
When MILWAUKEE team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a conference game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Allowed 5 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a 1 run lost 3-8-0
When MIAMI team played as a Home team – After a division game – During a night game – Coming off a 1 run win – Allowed 3 runs AGAINST in their last game 5-11-0
When MILWAUKEE team Played as road team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Total is 7.5 20-40-0
When MILWAUKEE team Played as road team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Total is 7.5 27-52-0
When ANY MLB Team (Brewers) Played as Road team as a Underdog – During the month of May – Vs Non Division Opponent – Before a conference game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a lost in game 4 of a series 12-32-0

 

Stats to THREATEN the Miami pick:

 

When MILWAUKEE played as Favourite- Vs NL East Division 35-15-0
When MILWAUKEE played as Road Favourite- Vs MIAMI 14-6-0
When MILWAUKEE Played as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Over – Lost Last Game by 1 Runs or More – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 12 – 6 – 0
When MILWAUKEE played as any home/road team – During Current Season – With 1 Over or Less 5 – 5 – 0
When MILWAUKEE played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Over or More – Lost Last Game by 1 Runs or More – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 20 – 21 – 0
When MILWAUKEE played as any home/road team – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Over or More – Lost Last Game by 1 Runs – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 10 – 6 – 0
When MILWAUKEE played as any home/road team – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Over – Lost Last Game by 1 Runs or More – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 17 – 10 – 0
When MIAMI Played as home team as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G 8 – 16 – 0

We’ve definitely seen stronger cases, but Miami could mark a slight edge, historically, in this position.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

MIAMI 25 – 23 52.08 47.92 50.47 0.51 4 – 3 57.14 42.86 46.94 0.52 6 – 8 42.86 57.14 46.67 0.45
MILWAUKEE 28 – 20 58.33 41.67 46.74 0.53 2 – 5 28.57 71.43 57.14 0.43 6 – 8 42.86 57.14 52.04 0.47
  • Milwaukee has stepped back these L7G (-4 SOS points)
  • Miami has progressed leaps and bounds L7G. (+7 SOS points)

 

RAYMOND REPORT

 

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB
Game Date – 2014-05-23
Road Team :- (3009) MILWAUKEE
Home Team :- (3010 )MIAMI

 

MILWAUKEETeam Name: MILWAUKEE(Road Team)
Money Line: MILWAUKEE -105 vs MIAMI -105
Spread Line: MILWAUKEE -1.5 +155 —– MIAMI +1.5 -175
O/U: MILWAUKEE 7.5 +105 —– MIAMI 7.5 -125
Pitchers: MILWAUKEE – M Estrada (R) vs MIAMI – T Koehler (R)
Game Date: Friday,May 23 2014 6:10 PM
Last Game: lost 4 – 5 vs Atlanta Braves
Current Game: Miami Marlins
Next Game: At MIAMI
Stats & Trends: MILWAUKEE vs. MIAMI
PVI Rating on Winning: 58.33%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 54.35%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 51.02%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 48%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 46%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.55
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.81
Road Team
(MILWAUKEE)
When MILWAUKEE is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When MILWAUKEE is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 2-2 85-85 50 1-3-0 89-81-0 61.33
vs Non-Division opponent 7-4 179-234 53.49 6-4-1 166-220-27 48.5
vs Conference opponent 4-4 120-139 48.17 5-2-1 104-133-22 42.35
Playing in the month of May 3-8 144-178 36 5-5-1 134-160-28 52.21
Playing on Friday 4-0 49-61 72.28 2-2-0 54-45-11 47.73
Played as road Underdog 11-7 218-323 50.71 11-6-1 227-272-42 44.9
After a Non-Division Game 7-3 181-228 57.13 5-4-1 160-220-29 51.17
After a Conference Game 5-3 127-145 54.6 5-2-1 110-141-21 42.38
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 7-7 66-84 47 9-5-0 64-77-9 45.16
vs NL Conference Opponent 11-11 179-231 46.83 14-7-1 176-196-38 43.01
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 5-2 48-77 54.92 4-2-1 54-57-14 42.34
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 12-10 166-228 48.34 14-7-1 171-189-34 42.92
Coming off 1 over 4-3 71-93 50.22 3-4-0 76-71-17 52.72
Coming off a lost 6-5 201-252 49.46 5-5-1 177-238-38 53.68
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 2-2 119-158 46.48 1-2-1 106-146-25 62.31
During a night game 9-6 231-283 52.47 12-2-1 228-247-39 33.15
Coming off a 7 road trip (since 1996) 3-4 2-8 31.43 4-3-0 3-5-2 52.68
Coming off a 1 runs loss 1-0 51-59 73.18 0-1-0 43-59-8 78.92
Coming off a score 4 runs FOR in last game 1-2 47-47 41.67 1-2-0 41-49-4 60.56
Coming off a score 5 runs AGAINST in last game 1-0 40-49 72.47 0-0-1 41-38-10 24.05
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 3-3 99-116 48.03 4-1-1 94-101-20 35.9
vs MIAMI (since 1996) 28-33 6-27 32.04 30-28-3 16-11-6 44.51
Coming off a Lost over NL EAST division opponent 3-1 29-46 56.84 1-2-1 25-39-11 63.81
Coming off a game that went over 4-3 71-93 50.22 3-4-0 76-71-17 52.72
Coming off a night game 8-5 217-278 52.69 7-5-1 205-248-42 48.21
Coming off a series loss 1-4 55-88 29.23 2-3-0 60-71-12 57.1
Last 30 days 5-9 192-245 39.83 8-5-1 184-212-41 46
Last 45 days 11-10 287-378 47.77 14-6-1 286-328-51 41.71
Last 60 days 14-11 338-432 49.95 15-9-1 332-382-56 45.5
Last 90 days 14-11 340-432 50.02 15-9-1 333-383-56 45.5
Vs. Right handed pitchers 11-9 230-321 48.37 12-7-1 230-280-41 45.87
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 13-10 251-301 51 14-8-1 233-278-41 45.38
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 6-3 142-179 55.46 4-4-1 123-175-23 54.36
TEAM: MILWAUKEE
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.71 3.65
Home Games Avg 3.33 3.08
Road Games Avg 4.08 4.2
Last 3 Games Avg 3.33 3.67
Last 5 Games Avg 3 4.8
Last 10 Games Avg 2.9 3.9
vs. Division Games Avg 3.23 3.88
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.51 3.65
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 5.17 3.67
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.77 4.08
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.08 3.92
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.61 3.26
After a Win Games Avg 3.64 3.86
After a Lost Games Avg 3.58 3.53
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.21 3.79
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.56 4.11
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.07 3.93
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.6 3
After an Over Games Avg 3.9 3.9
After an Under Games Avg 3.73 3.54
After a Push Games Avg 2.5 4.5
3.55 3.81
MIAMITeam Name: MIAMI(Home Team)
Money Line: MIAMI -105 vs MILWAUKEE -105
Spread Line: MIAMI +1.5 -175 —– MILWAUKEE -1.5 +155
O/U: MIAMI 7.5 -125 —– MILWAUKEE 7.5 +105
Pitchers: MIAMI – T Koehler (R) vs MILWAUKEE – M Estrada (R)
Game Date: Friday,May 23 2014 6:10 PM
Last Game: win 3 – 4 vs Philadelphia Phillies
Current Game: Milwaukee Brewers
Next Game: Vs. MILWAUKEE
Stats & Trends: MIAMI vs. MILWAUKEE
PVI Rating on Winning: 52.08%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 34.09%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 46.94%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 1 Push
Home Teams % of winning this game: 52%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 52%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.12
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.47
Home Team
(MIAMI)
When MIAMI is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When MIAMI is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 9-4 78-92 57.56 9-4-0 89-81-0 39.21
vs Non-Division opponent 10-5 194-219 56.82 8-5-2 166-220-27 47.73
vs Conference opponent 7-3 123-136 58.75 7-2-1 104-133-22 39.17
Playing in the month of May 8-6 150-172 51.86 6-4-4 134-160-28 47.21
Playing on Friday 3-1 54-56 62.05 3-0-1 54-45-11 22.73
Played as home Favorite 10-7 267-255 54.99 8-6-3 227-254-41 47.84
After a Division Game 10-8 172-187 51.74 9-5-4 166-165-28 42.78
After a Conference Game 7-4 133-136 56.54 7-2-2 106-141-22 39.66
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent (since 1996) 178-170 82-77 51.36 172-162-14 56-91-12 55.2
vs NL Conference Opponent 16-12 205-209 53.33 15-8-5 166-209-39 45.26
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 10-8 63-70 51.47 9-5-4 60-61-12 43.06
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 16-13 201-208 52.16 15-8-6 165-208-36 45.27
Coming off a 2 winning streak 1-1 32-61 42.21 1-1-0 40-45-8 51.47
Coming off 1 push 0-1 16-26 19.05 1-0-0 17-21-4 27.63
Coming off a win 6-6 144-185 46.89 4-5-3 140-161-28 54.53
Coming off a Home Win as a Underdog 3-4 28-48 39.85 4-3-0 34-37-5 47.49
During a night game 14-11 226-288 49.99 14-7-4 228-247-39 42.67
Coming off a 3 home stand (since 1996) 4-10 2-1 47.62 7-4-3 0-3-0 68.18
Coming off a 1 runs win 1-2 42-65 36.29 1-1-1 44-55-8 52.78
Coming off a score 4 runs FOR in last game 0-1 38-47 22.36 1-0-0 42-37-6 23.42
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 0-2 49-57 23.12 2-0-0 57-44-5 21.78
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 4-5 92-89 47.64 5-3-1 75-90-16 46.03
vs MILWAUKEE (since 1996) 33-28 10-15 47.05 30-28-3 15-9-1 42.89
Coming off a Win over NL EAST division opponent 1-1 25-24 50.51 1-0-1 29-16-4 17.78
Coming off a day game 3-4 110-128 44.54 4-2-1 104-120-14 43.45
Coming off a series win 2-1 37-26 62.7 2-1-0 18-39-6 50.88
Last 30 days 10-8 202-235 50.89 8-6-4 184-212-41 48.2
Last 45 days 14-12 310-355 50.24 12-9-5 286-328-51 48.14
Last 60 days 19-14 357-413 51.97 16-11-6 332-382-56 47.12
Last 90 days 19-14 357-415 51.91 16-11-6 333-383-56 47.12
Vs. Right handed pitchers 11-11 259-306 47.92 11-9-2 249-277-39 48.83
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 5-3 96-113 54.22 4-3-1 101-90-18 44.99
Coming off win vs. Left handed pitcher 4-2 43-53 55.73 2-3-1 39-50-7 58.09
TEAM: MIAMI
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.78 3.3
Home Games Avg 4.48 2.55
Road Games Avg 2.93 4.22
Last 3 Games Avg 7.67 4.67
Last 5 Games Avg 5.8 3.6
Last 10 Games Avg 5.9 4.5
vs. Division Games Avg 3 2.91
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.8 3.49
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.6 1.2
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.56 2
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 5.08 5.92
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.35 3.35
After a Win Games Avg 2.58 2.5
After a Lost Games Avg 4.87 4.74
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 1.83 3.33
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.35 5.18
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.83 2.22
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 6.33 3.5
After an Over Games Avg 4.59 3.62
After an Under Games Avg 2.45 3.09
After a Push Games Avg 3.75 3
4.12 3.47

 

Finally, the Raymond Report takes no issue in the team to team analysis when compared to the rest of the league.

All in all, the case is quite strong for Miami, and given the real time positioning of these teams, counting on the injuries and on the recent behaviour of the pitchers and the pens…

I’d definitely play this in my #1 slot. At -115 this is a steal and this is no time to play as if it was worth an unsure 1/2 unit.

 

Tonight’s Prediction: Miami to win 6-3.

 

 

 

 

 

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