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Houston Astros (Keuchel) vs. Seattle Mariners (Iwakuma)

WorldSeriesOfHandicapping.com

Houston Astros
Houston Astros 
O/U :6.5

3.09

Vs.

Date: 2014-05-25
Time: 15:10:00

Generated from 7 Previous Games

Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
SIDE :-144

4.46 = 7.55

PITCHING

The pitching in today’s matchup is just about even Steven. While Keuchel has a better vs record against Seattle hitters, Iwakuma has a better season ERA as well as the better performance L3G.

  • Keuchel is 2.92 all season
  • Iwakuma is 1.76 all season.
  • Keuchel is 1.42 L3G
  • Iwakuma is 0.75 L3G

We can’t make a case on the pitching aside to say that it looks conducive with an under total.

BULLPEN

  • HOU’s pen is 5.17 all games.
  • HOU’s pen is 5.40 on the road.
  • SEA’s pen is 3.20 all games.
  • SEA’s pen is 3.38 at home.

Definitely the case could be made for Seattle’s bullpen to show more promise; however, with starters like these, it’s likely that both pens will get minimal gametime as these pitchers promise to go deep. Both pitchers typically pitch 8 full innings so the bullpen should be of minimal affect.

BATTING

  • HOU is averaging 3.6 runs all games.
  • HOU is 3.3 on the road.
  • HOU is 3.7 vs RH Starters.
  • SEA is averaging 4.2 runs all games.
  • SEA is 3.5 at home.
  • SEA is 4.5 vs LH Starters.

Splits show the hitting to be equal, but looking at the all season totals, SEA should stand better by about 1 run or so.

  • The Astros are 23rd in the league with a .681OPS
  • The Mariners are 26th in the league with a .670OPS

 

UMPIRE

Umpire Tom Hallion is 4-4 for the home team and 4-4 for the OU.
The umping should be standard fare and not play into the outcome.

 

ATS STATS MATCHUPS

Historical considerations that SUPPORT the Seattle pick:

When H Iwakuma \’s Team played as Home Favourite- With Total between 6 and 7 8-2-0
When SEATTLE played as Favourite- Vs AL WEST 9-5-11
When SEATTLE team played as a Home team – 3rd game of a series – After a non division game – Coming off a 2 game under – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 7-3-0
When SEATTLE team played as a Home team – 3rd game of a series – After a non division game – Coming off a 5 Game Home Stand – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 7-3-0
When SEATTLE team Played as home team as a Favorite – During a day game – Playing on Sunday 90-52-0
When SEATTLE team played as a home team – After a non division game – Total is between 6.5 to 7.0 72-60-0
When SEATTLE team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of May – During a day game 27-18-0
When SEATTLE team played as a home team – During a day game – Total is 6.5 9-6-0
When SEATTLE team played as a home team – Playing on Sunday – During the month of May 25-14-0
When SEATTLE team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a non conference game – Vs. Left handed pitchers 24-12-0
When SEATTLE team played as a -160 to -180 home Favorite – Playing on Sunday – Vs. Left handed pitchers 8-2-0
When ANY MLB Team (Mariners) Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 3 years – During the month of May – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off a 3 run lost – Coming off a night game 10-5-0
When ANY MLB Team (Mariners) played as a Home team – Last 3 years – Playing on Sunday – Coming off a 5 Game Home Stand – Coming off a night game 50-27-0
When ANY MLB Team (Mariners) played as a -160 to -180 Home Favorite – 3rd game of a series – During the month of May – During a day game – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 26-12-0
When ANY MLB Team (Mariners) played as a Home team – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Total is between 6.5 to 7.0 – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a night game 36-21-0
When ANY MLB Team (Mariners) Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a day game – Vs Division Opponent – Playing on Sunday – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game 28-10-0
When SEATTLE Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With 2 Under 19 – 10 – 0
When SEATTLE Played as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – With 2 Under or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 3 Lost in L5G 9 – 3 – 0
When SEATTLE played as a home team – During Last 2 Years – With 2 Under – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 6 – 4 – 0
When SEATTLE played as a home team – During Last 3 Years – With 2 Under 23 – 14 – 0
When SEATTLE Played as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With 2 Under 23 – 13 – 0

 

When HOUSTON played as Road Team- With a spread between 140 and 160 23-52-0
When D Keuchel \’s Team played as Underdog- With a spread between 140 and 160 3-7-0
When HOUSTON played as Road Underdog- With a spread between 140 and 160 11-34-0
When HOUSTON team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Last 2 years – Coming off a Home loss – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog 4-11-0
When HOUSTON team played as a Road team – During a day game – Last 4 years – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 2-8-0
When HOUSTON team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Before a conference game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 3 run lost 6-14-0
When HOUSTON team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – 3rd game of a series – Coming off a 2 game under – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 6-12-0
When HOUSTON team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog 5-10-0
When HOUSTON team Played as road team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Last 3 years 59-143-0
When HOUSTON team Played as road team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Total is between 6.5 to 7.0 17-54-0
When HOUSTON team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – After a non division game – During a day game 8-21-0
When HOUSTON team played as a road team – Total is between 6.5 to 7.0 – Total is 6.5 6-17-0
When HOUSTON team Played as road team as a Underdog – Vs AL Conference – During a day game 17-38-0
When HOUSTON team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a day game 10-25-0
When HOUSTON team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Last 2 years 7-13-0
When HOUSTON team Played as road team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a day game 86-169-0
When HOUSTON team Played as road team as a Underdog – Total is between 6.5 to 7.0 – Vs. Right handed pitchers 24-56-0
When HOUSTON team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Total is between 6.5 to 7.0 – Vs. Right handed pitchers 1-9-0
When ANY MLB Team (Astros) Played as Road team as a Underdog – Coming off vs. American League opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs AL Conference – Coming off a Home loss – Coming off a 2 game under – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog 14-26-0
When HOUSTON played as a road team – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 0 Win 3 Lost in L3G 15 – 37 – 0
When HOUSTON played as a road team – During Last 4 Years – With 2 Under or Less 39 – 87 – 0
When HOUSTON played as any home/road team – During Last 3 Years – With 2 Under or Less 68 – 132 – 0
When HOUSTON Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – With 2 Under or Less – With SU Record of 0 Win 3 Lost in L3G 7 – 15 – 0

 

Historical considerations that THREATEN the Seattle pick:

When SEATTLE played as Home Team- With a spread between 160 and 180 5-10-0

So it’s in the ATS Matchup where we find our best reason for the Seattle pick.
With all things basically equal, bats, pens, pitching, umpiring, to see this strong of a positional deficit is very revealing. Positionally speaking, this game is over before it starts. It’s unclear what the average would be, but according to ATS Matchups and speaking historically, it looks as if Houston would be lucky to have even a 30% chance of winning this contest.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

HOUSTON 18 – 32 36.00 64.00 53.57 0.45 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 63.26 0.53 7 – 7 50 50 47.96 0.49
SEATTLE 24 – 24 50.00 50.00 49.84 0.50 4 – 3 57.14 42.86 51.02 0.54 6 – 8 42.86 57.14 52.04 0.47

So also we see a recent uptrend, especially with Seattle.
When a team has a clear SOS advantage as well as the Forecast, there is a type of synergy that makes that team particularly viable for the win. With that said, in this case, there is only 7 games to generate that value.

Today’s Prediction: Seattle to win 4-2.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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