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Chicago Cubs (Jackson) vs. San Francisco (Lincecum) – Preview May 28th, 2014

WorldSeriesOfHandicapping.com

 

Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 
O/U :7.5

3.52

Vs.

Date: 2014-05-28
Time: 14:45:00

Generated from 70 Previous Games

San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
SIDE :-160

3.56 = 7.08

 

A few factors jump out that all seem to point at the same thing.

Here are the factors:

1. Lincecum is starting to throw his game again. Just like with R. A. Dickey, slow starts don’t mean slow finishes. Lincecum is throwing 2.75ERA L3G and what’s more is he’s tallied a respectable 21 strike-outs in that span. Jackson, in for the Cubs today, is 5.82ERA L3G.

While neither starter has a season to brag about, Jackson looks like he might need at least a few more games before he finds his stuff;while, Lincecum has “turnaround” written all over his recent outings.

 

2. There is lots of established batter vs pitcher history between these teams. Although the overall picture slightly favours Lincecum, it’s in the ‘vs. Pitching’ where San Francisco stands out.

  • Jackson is 2-2 vs San Francisco with an ERA of 4.17 and a WHIP of 1.391.
  • Lincecum is 4-5 vs the Chicago Cubs with an ERA of 3.59 and a WHIP of 1.146.

Jackson vs SFG:
Colvin .429 across 7 at bats.
Morse .500 across 2 at bats.
Pagan .667 across 6 at bats.
Sanchez .333 across 3 at bats.
Sandoval .538 across 13 at bats

Lincecum vs CHC:
Castillo .400 across 5 at bats.
Castro .368 across 19 at bats.

 

3. The Giants have some red hot hitting lately while the Cubs are particularly cool of late.

  • Chicago Cubs are 26th in the league with a .666OPS
  • San Francisco are 13th in the league with a .716OPS
  • The Chicago White Sox are showing an ice cold 3.1RPG.
  • The San Francisco Giants are showing a red hot 4.7RPG.

 

4. While CHC are enjoying the luxuries of having one of the better bullpens in the league boasting a 3.28ERA all game and 2.13ERA on the road, the Giants have them beat with a 2.35ERA all game average and a stunning 1.67ERA at home.

 

5. Umpire Chris Seagal’s extreme strike-zone should prove to be a credible factor in this game.
Seagal’s games have accrued an O/U record of 7-1. This is highly indicative of a small strike-zone.

  • A small SZ gives the better pitcher an even stronger advantage. (+Giants)
  • A small SZ gives the weaker bats less of a deficit. (+Cubs)

With that said, when we start looking into the pitchers and their pitches, we see a very contrasting picture:

  • Jackson relies very heavily on his 4-Seamer and employs his Slider as a secondary. His other pitches include the 2-Seamer, Curveball and Changeups as tertiary pitches 20% of the time.
  • Lincecum relies equally on his 4-Seamer and his Slider as his primary pitches, and likes to finish off counts equally with Curveballs, Change-Ups and 2-Seam breakers for the K.

Pitch location.
Pitch location.
Pitch location.

Jackson pitches sliders down and away for called strikes. Lincecum pitches Change-Ups down and inside for called strikes.

The difference is that Jackson uses the whole zone through his count.  With a big SZ, Jackson could feel free to “stretch” and use all the space he needs. He could be extremely effective with a large SZ. On the other hand, Lincecum’s pitch location is definitely focused on the inside of the plate, but it is focused (solid aim)…so even if the blue doesn’t give him that inside inch, he can move it over and still be fine; whereas, Jackson could have some control issues in tight counts.

FYI: Pitchers who are afraid of the full 3-2 count due to a small-SZ tend to pitch in a way that will avoid it. In turn, the best case scenario is that this causes their pitches, in the early counts, to be far more easily telegraphed. Worst case scenario is that they float one over the plate that gets the label peeled.This is especially typical with pitchers who rely on their sinkers against umpires with short strike-zones on the bottom; however, it definitely applies to pitchers who use extreme amounts of junk, or who throw extra heat at the cost of aim.

Bottom line, Lincecum has better aim and so a small-SZ will affect him less so than it will Jackson.

 

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

CHICAGO 19 – 31 38.00 62.00 50.44 0.44 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 56.46 0.50 7 – 7 50 50 51.65 0.51
SAN FRANCISCO 33 – 19 63.46 36.54 49.07 0.56 5 – 1 83.33 16.67 40.14 0.62 8 – 5 61.54 38.46 49.06 0.55

 

Chicago Cubs -1 between L7G and L14G.
San Francisco Giants +7 between L7G and L14G.

 

ATS MATCHUPS

 

 

ATS Matchups favours San Fransisco in this position, although, the case isn’t severe.

 

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB

Game Date – 2014-05-28
Road Team :- (3407) CHICAGO CUBS
Home Team :- (3408 )SAN FRANCISCO

 

CHICAGO CUBSTeam Name: CHICAGO CUBS(Road Team)
Money Line: CHICAGO CUBS +147 vs SAN FRANCISCO -160
Spread Line: CHICAGO CUBS +1.5 -155 —– SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +135
O/U: CHICAGO CUBS 7.5 +115 —– SAN FRANCISCO 7.5 -135
Pitchers: CHICAGO CUBS – E Jackson (R) vs SAN FRANCISCO – T Lincecum (R)
Game Date: Wednesday,May 28 2014 2:45 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs San Francisco Giants
Current Game: San Francisco Giants
Next Game: At MILWAUKEE
Stats & Trends: CHICAGO CUBS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
PVI Rating on Winning: 38.78%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 50%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 50.34%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 36%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.6
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.52
Road Team
(CHICAGO CUBS)
When CHICAGO CUBS is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When CHICAGO CUBS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 4-5 95-93 47.49 5-4-0 96-92-0 46.69
vs Non-Division opponent 4-12 206-269 34.19 5-9-2 193-248-34 60.27
vs Conference opponent 3-8 139-165 36.5 3-6-2 122-154-28 61.24
Playing in the month of May 5-12 176-224 36.71 7-7-3 169-196-35 51.85
Playing on Wednesday 1-5 60-74 30.73 2-3-1 48-77-9 60.8
Played as road Underdog 9-23 238-361 33.93 11-16-5 255-298-46 56.58
After a Non-Division Game 5-12 208-263 36.79 6-9-2 187-249-35 58.56
After a Conference Game 2-7 149-172 34.32 3-5-1 131-163-27 58.97
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 5-12 71-89 36.9 7-7-3 69-80-11 51.85
vs NL Conference Opponent 8-20 198-255 36.14 10-13-5 194-217-42 54.66
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent 2-4 54-72 38.1 3-3-0 61-55-10 48.71
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 7-18 182-251 35.02 10-11-4 186-209-38 52.65
Coming off 1 under 0-7 84-114 21.21 2-4-1 75-107-16 62.73
Coming off a lost 9-16 224-278 40.31 9-13-3 199-260-43 57.87
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 6-13 135-178 37.36 6-10-3 123-160-30 59.52
During a day game 3-7 127-163 36.9 5-4-1 119-151-20 50.19
Coming off a 6 road trip 1-0 10-10 75 1-0-0 11-8-1 21.06
Coming off a 4 runs loss 0-1 19-17 26.39 1-0-0 25-11-0 15.28
Coming off a score 4 runs AGAINST in last game 3-2 53-46 56.77 1-4-0 43-52-4 67.37
vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % 1-1 35-49 45.84 1-1-0 33-47-4 54.38
vs SAN FRANCISCO (since 1996) 30-34 9-18 40.11 29-32-3 13-14-0 52.16
Coming off a Lost over NL WEST division opponent 2-1 32-34 57.58 1-2-0 32-31-3 57.94
Coming off a game that went under 4-1 81-100 62.38 2-2-1 85-79-17 49.09
Coming off a night game 5-17 234-301 33.24 8-10-4 223-265-47 54.93
Split 1st 2 games of a series 2-3 59-83 40.78 2-3-0 53-83-6 60.52
Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 5-5 25 3-7-0 35
Last 30 days 6-15 192-248 36.11 8-9-4 186-215-39 53.28
Last 45 days 7-21 285-383 33.83 10-14-4 277-334-57 56.5
Last 60 days 9-24 370-478 35.45 12-16-5 367-418-63 55.2
Last 90 days 9-24 372-478 35.52 12-16-5 368-419-63 55.19
Vs. Right handed pitchers 5-21 254-357 30.4 9-13-4 257-309-45 56.84
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 7-20 269-337 35.16 10-13-4 253-306-47 55.63
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 8-12 162-196 42.63 8-10-2 139-192-27 56.79
TEAM: CHICAGO CUBS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.46 3.5
Home Games Avg 4 3.87
Road Games Avg 3.09 3.24
Last 3 Games Avg 3.67 2.67
Last 5 Games Avg 3 4.2
Last 10 Games Avg 3.5 2.9
vs. Division Games Avg 3.93 3.66
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.6 3.51
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 2.78 3.44
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 4.28 3.5
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2.43 3.05
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.88 4.06
After a Win Games Avg 3.47 4.47
After a Lost Games Avg 3.73 2.97
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.33 4.89
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.59 2.59
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 4.5 4.1
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.92 3.46
After an Over Games Avg 4.04 3.78
After an Under Games Avg 2.67 3.52
After a Push Games Avg 5.8 2.6
3.6 3.52
SAN FRANCISCOTeam Name: SAN FRANCISCO(Home Team)
Money Line: SAN FRANCISCO -160 vs CHICAGO CUBS +147
Spread Line: SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +135 —– CHICAGO CUBS +1.5 -155
O/U: SAN FRANCISCO 7.5 -135 —– CHICAGO CUBS 7.5 +115
Pitchers: SAN FRANCISCO – T Lincecum (R) vs CHICAGO CUBS – E Jackson (R)
Game Date: Wednesday,May 28 2014 2:45 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Chicago Cubs
Current Game: Chicago Cubs
Next Game: At ST LOUIS
Stats & Trends: SAN FRANCISCO vs. CHICAGO CUBS
PVI Rating on Winning: 62.75%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 54%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 40.82%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 2 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 56%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 56%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.02
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.26
Home Team
(SAN FRANCISCO)
When SAN FRANCISCO is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When SAN FRANCISCO is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 6-4 85-103 52.61 6-4-0 96-92-0 44.47
vs Non-Division opponent 11-4 224-251 60.25 7-8-0 193-248-34 54.79
vs Conference opponent 5-4 147-157 51.96 4-5-0 122-154-28 55.68
Playing in the month of May 8-4 190-210 57.09 6-6-0 169-196-35 51.85
Playing on Wednesday 3-1 56-78 58.4 2-2-0 48-77-9 55.8
Played as home Favorite 17-8 299-279 59.87 13-12-0 255-278-45 50.08
After a Non-Division Game 8-5 210-251 53.55 7-6-0 187-240-34 51.18
After a Conference Game 7-3 157-160 59.77 4-6-0 128-163-26 58.01
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 1-1 91-89 50.28 1-1-0 67-99-14 54.82
vs NL Conference Opponent 12-9 221-231 53.02 10-11-0 179-229-44 54.26
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 1-0 88-81 76.04 0-1-0 61-93-15 80.2
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 14-7 220-233 57.62 9-12-0 180-230-43 56.62
Coming off 1 under 6-2 91-122 58.86 4-4-0 81-119-13 54.75
Coming off a win 10-7 164-206 51.57 7-10-0 161-177-32 55.6
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 8-6 108-122 52.05 6-8-0 98-109-23 54.9
During a day game 7-3 144-146 59.83 6-4-0 119-151-20 47.97
Coming off a 5 home stand 2-0 25-23 76.04 1-1-0 21-23-4 51.14
Coming off a 4 runs win 2-1 16-21 54.96 2-1-0 20-15-2 38.1
Coming off a score 4 runs FOR in last game 2-2 43-50 48.12 1-3-0 45-42-6 61.64
vs. opponent with a 31% to 40% winning % 1-1 48-57 47.86 1-1-0 40-56-9 54.17
vs CHICAGO CUBS (since 1996) 34-30 18-15 53.84 29-32-3 12-16-5 54.8
Coming off a Win over NL CENTRAL division opponent (since 1996) 123-78 36-39 54.6 97-96-8 26-40-9 55.18
Coming off a game that went under 6-1 96-96 67.86 2-5-0 93-85-14 59.59
Coming off a night game 10-6 256-300 54.27 7-9-0 238-273-45 54.84
Split 1st 2 games of a series 3-2 66-76 53.24 3-2-0 53-83-6 50.52
Coming off a win in game 2 of a series 3-1 48-67 58.37 1-3-0 48-60-7 65.28
Last 30 days 10-5 204-236 56.52 7-8-0 186-215-39 53.48
Last 45 days 16-6 315-353 59.95 9-13-0 277-334-57 56.88
Last 60 days 18-9 397-451 56.75 13-14-0 367-418-63 52.55
Last 90 days 18-9 397-453 56.69 13-14-0 368-419-63 52.55
Vs. Right handed pitchers 14-6 288-333 58.19 12-8-0 276-301-44 46.09
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 14-8 280-325 54.96 11-11-0 249-314-42 52.89
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 8-5 117-144 53.19 7-6-0 113-123-25 49.14
TEAM: SAN FRANCISCO
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.13 3.42
Home Games Avg 4 3.11
Road Games Avg 4.27 3.73
Last 3 Games Avg 4 3
Last 5 Games Avg 4 2.4
Last 10 Games Avg 3.5 2.6
vs. Division Games Avg 4.13 3.66
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.02 3.66
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 5 1.5
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 4 4.23
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.61 2.83
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.64 3.41
After a Win Games Avg 3.81 3.53
After a Lost Games Avg 4.32 3.05
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.4 3.73
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.5 3.1
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.29 3.35
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.11 3
After an Over Games Avg 3.96 3.3
After an Under Games Avg 4.22 3.26
After a Push Games Avg 2.5 4.5
4.02 3.26

 

The Raymond Report puts a nice exclaimation mark on the SFG pick.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: SAN FRANCISCO to win 5-3.

 

 

 

 

 

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