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Detroit Tigers (Porcello) vs. Oakland Athletics (Chavez) – Preview May 29th, 2014

WorldSeriesOfHandicapping.com

 

Today’s MLB Analysis

Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers 
O/U :82.79
Vs.Date: 2014-05-29
Time: 14:35:00Generated from 40 Previous Games
Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics
SIDE :-135
4.25 = 7.04

 

Both Detroit and Oakland are in scoring slumps. The contrast between their last 7 games and their all game stats is massive.

  • DET is 3.1RPG L7G, and 4.6RPG all games.
  • OAK is 3.6RPG L7G, and 5.0RPG all games.

This is the wildcard point in this game. Either team could come out swinging for the fences and this looks to be the determining “?” factor.

 

Let’s look:

PITCHING

In for Detroit today is Porcello:

  • Porcello is 3.88ERA all games.
  • Porcello is 3.62ERA on the road.
  • Porcello is 4.68ERA Last 3 Games.
  •  Porcello is 2-5 vs Oakland with an ERA of 4.70 and a WHIP of 1.609

In for Oakland today is Chavez:

  • Chavez is 2.61ERA all games.
  • Chavez is 2.80ERA at home.
  • Chavez is 2.95ERA Last 3 Games.

 

BATTING

  • Detroit bats are 3rd in the league with a .755OPS
  • Oakland bats are 5th in the league with a .744OPS
  • Detroit is 4.7 vs RHP
  • Oakland is 5.0 vs RHP

These teams are effectively completely equal at the plate, all season as well as L7G.

While we’re looking at it, Oakland is 16th in the league .AVG, but Oakland is 5th in the league .OPS.

Which one describes Oakland’s power and threat at the plate better?

Did you know that OAKLAND has the 2nd best W/L record in the league?

This is the reason that we calculate our hitting with .OPS in mind instead of .AVG.

 

BULLPEN

  • Detroit’s bullpen is 4.46ERA all games.
  • Detroit’s bullpen is 3.49ERA on the road.
  • Oakland’s bullpen is 2.88ERA all games.
  • Oakland’s bullpen is 3.06ERA at home.

Porcello usually goes late into games but only pitched 5.3 innings in his last outing where he gave up 12 hits and 8 ER. Porcello is 4.66ERA L3G.

Slight edge to Oakland in the relief. Chavez doesn’t usually take games into the back stretch, so Oakland’s bullpen will need to step up to shut down Detroit’s hitting. Chavez has averaged 7 hits and 2ER against in his L3G. Chavez is 2.95ERA L3G.

 

UMPIRE

Umpire Paul Emmel has seen the home team to the win to the tune of 8-2 L10G.
Emmel also chalked a 60% win to the home team last season as well so there may be a bias there.
After all…why call it a ball when you can yell “strike 3!” and have the crowd cheer at you?

 

 

ATS STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

DETROIT 29 – 20 59.18 40.82 48.70 0.54 2 – 5 28.57 71.43 53.06 0.41 6 – 8 42.86 57.14 43.37 0.43
OAKLAND 31 – 21 59.62 40.38 48.87 0.54 2 – 5 28.57 71.43 63.26 0.46 8 – 6 57.14 42.86 53.57 0.55

 

Both teams are 2-5 L7G, but Detroit is Power-Rated at .41 while Oakland is Power-Rated at .46.
So while they both are 2-5 L7G, Oakland has had the tougher competition.

 

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Positional statistics that SUPPORT the Oakland pick:

When OAKLAND played as Home or Away Team- Vs AL Central Division 47-26-2
When OAKLAND played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 34-14-2
When OAKLAND played as Home Favourite- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 51-22-2
When OAKLAND played as Home or Away Team- in the month of May 26-14-0
When OAKLAND team played as a Home team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a day game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a 1 game win 50-30-0
When OAKLAND team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 2 years – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Home win 14-4-0
When OAKLAND team played as a Home team – Before a division game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Win vs. AL CENTRAL opponent – Allowed 1 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 11-7-0
When OAKLAND team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 1 game win – Allowed 1 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 65-41-0
When OAKLAND team played as a Home team – 4th game of a series – During a day game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a Home win 20-11-0
When OAKLAND team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a conference game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Win vs. AL CENTRAL opponent – Scored 3 or less runs FOR in their last game 23-7-0
When OAKLAND team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 2 run win – Coming off a Win vs. AL CENTRAL opponent 18-9-0
When OAKLAND team played as a -120 to -140 Home Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Home win 8-5-0
When OAKLAND team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – During the month of May – Coming off a 2 run win – Coming off a Home win 7-4-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Last 2 years – Vs. Right handed pitchers 59-29-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Playing on Thursday – Vs Non Division Opponent 42-22-0
When OAKLAND team played as a home team – Playing on Thursday – Vs Non Division Opponent 58-33-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Last 3 years – During the month of May 21-14-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Playing on Thursday – During a day game 45-28-0
When OAKLAND team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite – Last 2 years – Vs. Right handed pitchers 18-10-0
When OAKLAND team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite – During a day game – Vs Non Division Opponent 48-28-0
When OAKLAND team played as a home team – During a day game – Vs Non Division Opponent 257-163-0
When OAKLAND team played as a home team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Playing on Thursday 70-38-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Playing on Thursday – Vs Non Division Opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Allowed 1 runs AGAINST in their last game 67-40-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of May – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Before a conference game – Coming off a 1 game win – Scored 3 or less runs FOR in their last game 62-38-0
When OAKLAND played as any home/road team – During Last 2 Years – Won Last Game by 2 Runs 26 – 9 – 0
When OAKLAND Played as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Under or Less – Won Last Game by 2 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G 8 – 4 – 0

 

When DETROIT team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – Playing on Thursday – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off a Loss vs. AL WEST opponent 5-10-0
When DETROIT team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a day game – Before a non division game – Scored 1 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a 1 game loss 3-11-0
When DETROIT team played as a Road team – After a conference game – During a day game – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Coming off a Loss vs. AL WEST opponent 4-12-0
When DETROIT team played as a Road team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a 1 game loss 16-32-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team – During the month of May – Last 5 years – Vs AL Conference – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Coming off a Loss vs. AL WEST opponent – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 14-26-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Last 3 years – 4th game of a series – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 12-24-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a day game – Last 2 years – Vs Conference Opponent – Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series – Coming off a series loss 10-16-0

 

 

Positional statistics that THREATEN the Oakland pick:

When DETROIT played as Home or Away Team- With a spread between 120 and 140 11-4-0
When R PORCELLO \’s Team played as Underdog- in the month of May 8-2-0
When R PORCELLO \’s Team played as Home or Away Team- in the month of May 13-7-0
When DETROIT played as Road Team- With a spread between 120 and 140 13-7-0
When R PORCELLO \’s Team played as Road Underdog- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 6-4-0
When DETROIT Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under 8 – 5 – 0

 

ATS Matchups shows that historically speaking, Oakland is completely comfortable with this position, while Detroit might have their work cut out for them.

 

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB
Game Date – 2014-05-29
Road Team :- (3015) DETROIT
Home Team :- (3016 )OAKLAND

 

DETROITTeam Name: DETROIT(Road Team)
Money Line: DETROIT +132 vs OAKLAND -142
Spread Line: DETROIT +1.5 -172 —– OAKLAND -1.5 +152
O/U: DETROIT 8 +100 —– OAKLAND 8 -120
Pitchers: DETROIT – R Porcello (R) vs OAKLAND – J Chavez (R)
Game Date: Thursday,May 29 2014 2:35 PM
Last Game: lost 1 – 3 vs Oakland Athletics
Current Game: Oakland Athletics
Next Game: At SEATTLE
Stats & Trends: DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
PVI Rating on Winning: 59.18%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 46.81%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 53.06%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 50%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 54%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.65
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.07
Road Team
(DETROIT)
When DETROIT is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When DETROIT is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8 2-3 46-74 39.17 1-3-1 52-60-8 64.29
vs Non-Division opponent 9-7 210-275 49.78 5-10-1 197-254-34 61.5
vs Conference opponent 7-4 141-169 54.56 3-7-1 123-159-28 63.19
Playing in the month of May 10-7 181-234 51.22 9-7-1 175-205-35 48.85
Playing on Thursday (since 1996) 71-94 45-48 45.71 81-81-3 43-46-4 50.85
Played as road Underdog 5-5 243-368 44.89 4-6-0 261-304-46 56.91
After a Non-Division Game 8-8 212-269 47.04 6-9-1 191-255-35 58.59
After a Conference Game 7-5 151-176 52.26 3-8-1 132-168-27 64.37
vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 6-5 61-83 48.46 7-3-1 70-70-4 40
vs AL Conference Opponent 13-9 176-228 51.33 10-10-2 175-208-21 52.16
Coming off vs AL WEST Division Opponent 1-2 56-69 39.07 2-1-0 50-62-13 44.35
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 13-10 184-224 50.81 10-11-2 175-209-24 53.41
Coming off 1 under 3-1 87-118 58.72 1-3-0 78-111-16 66.87
Coming off a lost 7-6 228-284 49.19 6-7-0 202-267-43 55.39
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 3-0 139-182 71.65 2-1-0 126-165-30 45.02
During a day game 3-5 128-165 40.6 4-3-1 120-153-20 49.45
Coming off a 3 road trip (since 1996) 9-7 2-4 44.79 9-6-1 2-3-1 50
Coming off a 2 runs loss 0-2 39-26 30 0-2-0 23-39-3 81.45
Coming off a score 1 runs FOR in last game 0-1 38-53 20.88 0-1-0 38-46-7 77.38
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 2-1 44-54 55.79 1-2-0 44-46-8 58.89
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 7-3 112-136 57.58 5-5-0 111-115-22 50.44
vs OAKLAND (since 1996) 42-49 11-16 43.45 33-54-4 13-13-1 56.04
Coming off a Lost over AL WEST division opponent 1-1 33-46 45.89 2-0-0 27-40-12 29.85
Coming off a game that went under 2-4 81-102 38.8 2-3-1 86-80-17 54.1
Coming off a night game 9-8 239-311 48.2 8-8-1 229-274-47 52.24
Coming off a series loss 4-2 66-99 53.34 2-4-0 74-77-14 58.83
Last 30 days 12-7 193-255 53.12 9-9-1 187-222-39 52.14
Last 45 days 13-9 287-380 51.06 10-10-2 276-334-57 52.38
Last 60 days 15-12 375-488 49.51 12-13-2 373-427-63 52.69
Last 90 days 15-12 377-488 49.57 12-13-2 374-428-63 52.69
Vs. Right handed pitchers 11-10 257-366 46.82 9-10-2 262-316-45 53.65
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 5-2 96-135 56.5 7-0-0 111-105-15 24.31
Coming off lost vs. Left handed pitcher 1-0 54-77 70.61 1-0-0 52-64-15 27.59
TEAM: DETROIT
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.78 3.48
Home Games Avg 3.39 3.45
Road Games Avg 4.26 3.52
Last 3 Games Avg 2.33 6
Last 5 Games Avg 2.6 8.4
Last 10 Games Avg 3.2 6.4
vs. Division Games Avg 4.67 3.54
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.84 3.4
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.2 4.4
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.63 5.13
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.28 4.33
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.56 2.65
After a Win Games Avg 3.1 2.76
After a Lost Games Avg 4.16 4.47
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.6 2.6
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.13 4.88
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.57 2.93
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.18 4.18
After an Over Games Avg 3.72 4.8
After an Under Games Avg 3.7 2.67
After a Push Games Avg 4.75 1.5
3.65 4.07
OAKLANDTeam Name: OAKLAND(Home Team)
Money Line: OAKLAND -142 vs DETROIT +132
Spread Line: OAKLAND -1.5 +152 —– DETROIT +1.5 -172
O/U: OAKLAND 8 -120 —– DETROIT 8 +100
Pitchers: OAKLAND – J Chavez (R) vs DETROIT – R Porcello (R)
Game Date: Thursday,May 29 2014 2:35 PM
Last Game: win 1 – 3 vs Detroit Tigers
Current Game: Detroit Tigers
Next Game: Vs. LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Stats & Trends: OAKLAND vs. DETROIT
PVI Rating on Winning: 59.62%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 46.94%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 63.26%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 50%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 50%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.88
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 2.85
Home Team
(OAKLAND)
When OAKLAND is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When OAKLAND is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8 3-2 64-56 56.67 2-3-0 52-60-8 56.79
vs Non-Division opponent 10-6 230-255 54.96 8-7-1 197-254-34 51.5
vs Conference opponent 4-6 151-159 44.36 5-5-0 123-159-28 53.19
Playing in the month of May 8-5 200-215 54.87 8-4-1 175-205-35 43.64
Playing on Thursday 1-0 39-54 70.97 0-1-0 43-46-4 75.85
Played as home Favorite 13-11 306-284 53.02 11-12-1 261-284-45 52.14
After a Non-Division Game 9-7 216-255 51.06 7-8-1 191-246-34 54.81
After a Conference Game 5-5 161-162 49.93 6-4-0 129-168-26 48.29
vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 4-6 69-65 45.75 5-5-0 68-58-8 48.02
vs AL Conference Opponent 7-14 181-224 39.01 10-11-0 191-195-19 51.45
Coming off vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 3-5 58-67 41.95 3-5-0 63-56-6 54.78
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 8-12 173-215 42.3 10-10-0 183-186-19 50.21
Coming off 1 under 3-2 95-125 51.59 1-4-0 84-123-13 69.71
Coming off a win 7-5 169-209 51.52 6-5-1 163-183-32 49.17
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 7-4 112-125 55.45 6-4-1 100-114-23 46.64
During a day game 5-5 146-147 49.92 4-6-0 120-153-20 58.02
Coming off a 3 home stand (since 1996) 9-7 3-1 65.63 8-7-1 0-4-0 73.34
Coming off a 2 runs win 1-0 28-38 71.21 1-0-0 25-36-5 29.51
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game 1-4 42-60 30.59 2-3-0 45-46-11 55.28
Coming off a score 1 runs AGAINST in last game 1-1 39-46 47.94 2-0-0 38-36-11 24.33
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 5-4 112-107 53.35 6-2-1 91-109-19 39.75
vs DETROIT (since 1996) 49-42 9-18 43.59 33-54-4 12-13-2 57.04
Coming off a Win over AL Central division opponent 1-2 28-35 38.89 2-1-0 39-21-3 34.17
Coming off a game that went under 4-3 98-96 53.83 4-2-1 94-86-14 40.56
Coming off a night game 9-10 266-305 46.98 8-10-1 244-282-45 54.59
Coming off a series win 1-1 38-26 54.69 1-1-0 18-40-6 59.49
Last 30 days 8-5 212-236 54.43 8-4-1 187-222-39 43.81
Last 45 days 11-8 313-354 52.41 11-7-1 276-334-57 46.82
Last 60 days 13-14 407-456 47.66 13-13-1 373-427-63 51.69
Last 90 days 13-14 407-458 47.6 13-13-1 374-428-63 51.69
Vs. Right handed pitchers 8-12 296-337 43.38 9-10-1 282-307-44 52.38
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 10-7 284-330 52.54 10-7-0 253-319-42 48.48
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 4-3 121-147 51.15 3-3-1 114-129-25 51.55
TEAM: OAKLAND
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.73 2.98
Home Games Avg 4 2.67
Road Games Avg 5.43 3.29
Last 3 Games Avg 6 2.33
Last 5 Games Avg 4.2 3
Last 10 Games Avg 4.4 2.8
vs. Division Games Avg 4.74 3.33
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.6 3.08
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 7 1.33
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 4.44 3.78
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.43 2.65
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 5.13 3
After a Win Games Avg 5.63 3.17
After a Lost Games Avg 4.1 2.76
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 5.89 3.67
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4 2.8
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 5.25 2.42
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.18 2.73
After an Over Games Avg 5.38 3.23
After an Under Games Avg 4.24 2.88
After a Push Games Avg 4.67 2
4.88 2.85

 

In today’s position, while these teams are given equal chances to win, their offensive and defensive scoring stats show Oakland to stand completely better as compared to Detroit.

In tandem with the ATS Forecast, and the Matchups, and the SOS….although the hitting is a little bit of a tedious consideration, there is ultimately enough to say that Oakland should stand better here in today’s game.

 

 

Today’s Prediction: OAKLAND to win 4-3.

 

 

 

 

 

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