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Kansas City Royals (Vargas) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) – Preview May 30th, 2014

WorldSeriesOfHandicapping.com

 

Capper’s Corner
Tonight’s MLB Pick and Analysis

Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals 
O/U :95.18
Vs.Date: 2014-05-30
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 64 Previous Games

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
SIDE :-130
4.71 = 9.89

 

Tonight’s game is shaping up to be a real banger.

Both clubs seem to have good tape on the pitchers as the Jays have 6 in their lineup batting over .300 and the Royals have 5 for a combined 11 batters hitting over .300 vs tonight’s pitchers.

The official lineups aren’t out, but regardless of who takes the field, numbers that high tell us that these teams know how to hit against each other.

So where is the advantage?

  • KCR is 25-28 all games but only 11-16 in May.
  • TOR is 32-23 all games but is a whopping 20-8 in May.

 

  • KCR is 3.5RPG vs LHP and is only batting 3.4L7G.
  • TOR is 5.4RPG vs LHP and is hitting 5.6L7G.
  • KCR has a 3.51ERA bullpen all games and 1.93 on the road.
  • TOR has a 4.83ERA bullpen all games and 4.46 at home.
  • Vargas is a 3.55ERA pitcher but has had a bumpy L3G with a 5.09ERA.
  • Happ is a 3.34ERA pitcher and is 2.50L3G.

It’s important to note that the L3G ERA statistics leaves out the fact that Happ allowed 17 hits while KCR allowed only 16. Ultimately, the pitching is hit and miss here. Both pitchers have had 2 solid outings and blew up once in their L3G, and at the end of the day, aside from their wildcard factor, they are basically equal and are a non-consideration.

Also, given that both pitchers are lucky to see the 6th inning, the KCR bullpen advantage is magnified and could play a big role in the ‘sides’ and ‘totals’ result of this game.

 

All that said, we still like Toronto and here’s why:

 

ATS MATCHUP
Historical stats to SUPPORT the Jays pick in tonight’s position:

When TORONTO played as Favourite- in the month of May 22-13-0
When TORONTO played as Home Favourite- Vs AL Central Division 14-6-0
When TORONTO played as Home Team- in the month of May 8-2-0
When TORONTO team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a non division game – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off a 2 run lost – Coming off a Home loss 8-2-0
When TORONTO team played as a Home team – After a non division game – During a night game – Coming off a 2 run lost – Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent 11-3-0
When TORONTO team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series – Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent 28-11-0
When TORONTO team played as a Home team – During the month of May – Vs AL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite – Coming off a 1 game loss 7-4-0
When TORONTO team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite – Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent 19-10-0
When TORONTO team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off a 2 run lost – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 9-3-0
When TORONTO team played as a Home team – Vs AL Conference – During a night game – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off 1 over 40-21-0
When TORONTO team played as a Home team – Vs. Left handed pitchers – During a night game – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite – Coming off a 1 game loss 18-9-0
When TORONTO team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – During a night game 97-64-0
When TORONTO team played as a home team – Playing on Friday – During the month of May 24-16-0
When TORONTO team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Vs Non Division Opponent 106-70-0
When TORONTO team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs. Left handed pitchers 87-53-0
When TORONTO team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – During the month of May 14-7-0
When TORONTO team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Playing on Friday 13-6-0
When TORONTO team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite – During the month of May – During a night game 30-16-0
When TORONTO team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Vs AL CENTRAL opponent 15-8-0
When ANY MLB Team (Jays) played as a -120 to -140 Home Favorite – Last 5 years – Vs AL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 36-17-0
When ANY MLB Team (Jays) Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs AL Conference – During a night game – Before a non division game – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series – Allowed 8 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a 1 game loss 28-13-0
When TORONTO Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Over 39 – 20 – 0
When TORONTO Played as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Over or Less 61 – 37 – 0
When TORONTO Played as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Over or More 116 – 74 – 0
When KANSAS CITY played as Road Team- Vs TORONTO 11-24-0
When KANSAS CITY played as Home or Away Team- in the month of May 15-30-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a 120 to 140 Road Underdog – Vs AL Conference – During a night game – Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent – Coming off a 1 game win 4-9-0
When KANSAS CITY team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a night game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Road win – Coming off a 2 run win 11-22-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a 120 to 140 Road Underdog – During a night game – Before a non division game – Allowed 6 runs or less AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 4-9-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a Road team – Before a conference game – Before a non division game – Coming off a Road win – Coming off a 2 run win 13-25-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a Road team – Playing on Friday – After a non division game – Coming off a Road win – Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent 4-13-0
When KANSAS CITY team Played as road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Vs. Left handed pitchers 71-134-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – During the month of May 9-22-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – During a night game – Vs AL EAST opponent 18-39-0
When KANSAS CITY team Played as road team as a Underdog – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Vs AL EAST opponent 25-55-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – Vs. Left handed pitchers – During a night game 17-36-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 120 to 140 Road Underdog – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent – Coming off a 1 game win 12-28-0
When KANSAS CITY Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – With 2 Over or Less 26 – 52 – 0
When KANSAS CITY Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 5 Years – Won Last Game by 2 Runs or More 27 – 67 – 0

 

Historical stats to THREATEN the Jays pick in tonight’s position:

When KANSAS CITY played as Road Team- Vs AL East Division 12-8-0
When TORONTO played as any home/road team – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Over – Lost Last Game by 2 Runs or More – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G 7 – 17 – 0
When TORONTO played as a home team – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Over or More – Lost Last Game by 2 Runs or More – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G 3 – 7 – 0

 

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB

Game Date – 2014-05-30
Road Team :- (3419) KANSAS CITY
Home Team :- (3420 )TORONTO

 

KANSAS CITYTeam Name: KANSAS CITY(Road Team)
Money Line: KANSAS CITY +126 vs TORONTO -136
Spread Line: KANSAS CITY +1.5 -165 —– TORONTO -1.5 +145
O/U: KANSAS CITY 9 -115 —– TORONTO 9 -105
Pitchers: KANSAS CITY – J Vargas (L) vs TORONTO – J A Happ (L)
Game Date: Friday,May 30 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: win 8 – 6 vs Toronto Blue Jays
Current Game: Toronto Blue Jays
Next Game: At TORONTO
Stats & Trends: KANSAS CITY vs. TORONTO
PVI Rating on Winning: 47.17%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 50%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 73.47%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 45%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 53%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.74
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.22
Road Team
(KANSAS CITY)
When KANSAS CITY is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When KANSAS CITY is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 9 (since 1996) 121-165 42-44 45.58 119-137-30 33-43-10 55.05
vs Non-Division opponent 11-6 215-278 54.16 7-8-2 202-257-34 54.66
vs Conference opponent 6-5 146-170 50.38 4-5-2 128-160-28 55.56
Playing in the month of May 6-5 188-237 49.4 5-4-2 181-209-35 49.02
Playing on Friday 2-2 51-76 45.08 1-1-2 61-52-14 48.01
Played as road Underdog 4-10 249-369 34.43 3-9-2 266-306-46 64.25
After a Non-Division Game 9-5 218-272 54.39 7-6-1 196-259-35 51.54
After a Conference Game 6-5 155-177 50.62 4-5-2 136-169-27 55.49
vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 1-9 62-83 26.38 4-5-1 71-70-4 52.61
vs AL Conference Opponent 7-14 180-229 38.67 8-10-3 179-209-21 54.72
Coming off vs AL EAST Division Opponent 1-2 58-76 38.31 2-1-0 54-73-7 45.41
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 7-13 187-225 40.2 8-10-2 178-210-24 54.84
Coming off 2 over 0-3 39-50 21.91 1-2-0 48-36-5 54.77
Coming off a win 3-7 152-205 36.29 4-5-1 174-163-20 51.97
Coming off a Road Win as a Underdog 1-1 75-114 44.84 1-1-0 90-87-12 49.58
During a night game 9-8 254-326 48.37 7-8-2 258-279-43 52.65
Coming off a 2 runs win 3-1 36-38 61.83 2-1-1 36-35-3 41.32
Coming off a score 8 runs FOR in last game 0-2 12-14 23.08 1-1-0 15-10-1 45
Coming off a score 6 runs AGAINST in last game 2-0 25-37 70.16 1-1-0 27-30-5 51.32
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 6-4 116-136 53.02 4-4-2 115-115-22 50
vs TORONTO (since 1996) 27-40 12-16 41.58 28-37-2 16-10-2 47.69
Coming off a Win over AL EAST division opponent 0-2 24-31 21.82 1-1-0 26-25-4 49.51
Coming off a night game 9-7 242-314 49.89 8-6-2 232-277-47 48.64
Coming off a game 1 of a series 5-3 114-138 53.87 4-3-1 113-119-20 47.08
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 1-1 48-60 47.22 1-1-0 48-53-7 51.24
Last 30 days 6-5 193-248 49.16 5-4-2 186-219-36 49.26
Last 45 days 12-9 288-379 50.16 9-10-2 277-334-56 53.65
Last 60 days 12-15 382-490 44.13 11-13-3 379-430-63 53.66
Last 90 days 12-15 384-491 44.17 11-13-3 380-432-63 53.69
Vs. Left handed pitchers 3-3 121-122 49.9 3-2-1 113-112-18 44.89
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 10-8 279-346 50.1 8-9-1 260-318-47 53.98
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 1-6 105-147 27.98 3-4-0 113-124-15 54.73
TEAM: KANSAS CITY
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.8 4.06
Home Games Avg 3.67 4.59
Road Games Avg 3.93 3.52
Last 3 Games Avg 3.67 6
Last 5 Games Avg 3.2 6.2
Last 10 Games Avg 3.9 5.6
vs. Division Games Avg 3.27 4.95
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.69 4.27
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4.8 2
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.79 4.37
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.08 3.54
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.64 4.09
After a Win Games Avg 3.67 3.83
After a Lost Games Avg 3.82 4.21
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.36 2.64
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.21 3.36
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.08 4.85
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.43 5.07
After an Over Games Avg 3.54 4.96
After an Under Games Avg 4.15 3.35
After a Push Games Avg 3 3
3.74 4.22
TORONTOTeam Name: TORONTO(Home Team)
Money Line: TORONTO -136 vs KANSAS CITY +126
Spread Line: TORONTO -1.5 +145 —– KANSAS CITY +1.5 -165
O/U: TORONTO 9 -105 —– KANSAS CITY 9 -115
Pitchers: TORONTO – J A Happ (L) vs KANSAS CITY – J Vargas (L)
Game Date: Friday,May 30 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: lost 8 – 6 vs Kansas City Royals
Current Game: Kansas City Royals
Next Game: Vs. KANSAS CITY
Stats & Trends: TORONTO vs. KANSAS CITY
PVI Rating on Winning: 58.18%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 41.51%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 40.81%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 54%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 54%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 5.12
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.56
Home Team
(TORONTO)
When TORONTO is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When TORONTO is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 9 10-6 42-44 55.67 10-4-2 33-43-10 42.58
vs Non-Division opponent 10-6 233-260 54.88 8-7-1 202-257-34 51.33
vs Conference opponent 6-5 152-164 51.33 4-6-1 128-160-28 57.78
Playing in the month of May 11-5 203-222 58.26 8-7-1 181-209-35 50.13
Playing on Friday 1-3 66-61 38.49 1-2-1 61-52-14 56.35
Played as home Favorite 11-9 307-290 53.21 14-4-2 266-286-45 37.02
After a Non-Division Game 10-5 218-260 56.14 9-5-1 195-249-34 45.9
After a Conference Game 7-4 162-166 56.52 4-6-1 133-169-26 57.98
vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 2-2 69-67 50.37 2-1-1 70-58-8 39.32
vs AL Conference Opponent 12-11 182-228 48.28 12-9-2 195-196-19 46.5
Coming off vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 2-1 59-68 56.57 2-1-0 64-57-6 40.22
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 13-10 174-220 50.34 12-9-2 188-187-19 46.37
Coming off 1 over 7-2 100-97 64.27 6-3-0 95-88-14 40.71
Coming off a lost 6-6 238-252 49.29 6-5-1 214-245-31 49.42
Coming off a Home Lost as a Favorite 3-4 121-119 46.64 4-2-1 109-119-12 42.76
During a night game 12-8 264-316 52.76 13-5-2 258-279-43 39.87
Coming off a 7 home stand (since 1996) 7-4 4-3 60.39 8-3-0 2-5-0 49.35
Coming off a 2 runs loss 2-2 32-42 46.62 3-1-0 39-34-1 35.79
Coming off a score 6 runs FOR in last game 2-0 35-35 75 1-1-0 31-34-5 51.16
Coming off a score 8 runs AGAINST in last game 0-1 12-14 23.08 1-0-0 13-10-3 21.74
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 11-8 157-178 52.38 10-7-2 150-160-25 46.4
vs KANSAS CITY (since 1996) 40-27 14-13 55.78 28-37-2 11-13-3 55.55
Coming off a Lost over AL Central division opponent 2-0 30-32 74.2 1-1-0 24-35-3 54.66
Coming off a game that went over 7-2 100-97 64.27 6-3-0 95-88-14 40.71
Coming off a night game 9-10 268-312 46.79 11-6-2 250-285-45 44.28
Coming off a game 1 of a series 5-4 120-132 51.59 6-3-0 113-119-20 42.31
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 1-2 60-64 40.86 1-2-0 53-62-9 60.29
Last 30 days 11-5 209-232 58.07 8-7-1 186-219-36 50.37
Last 45 days 13-9 314-353 53.09 12-8-2 277-334-56 47.33
Last 60 days 16-12 409-463 52.02 16-10-2 379-430-63 45.81
Last 90 days 16-12 410-465 52 16-10-2 380-432-63 45.83
Vs. Left handed pitchers 7-3 113-121 59.15 5-5-0 92-123-19 53.61
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 12-7 286-336 54.57 11-7-1 258-322-42 47.21
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 5-5 162-190 48.01 5-4-1 144-186-22 50.4
TEAM: TORONTO
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.89 4.36
Home Games Avg 5.43 4.93
Road Games Avg 4.36 3.79
Last 3 Games Avg 6 5.33
Last 5 Games Avg 6.2 4.4
Last 10 Games Avg 5.9 3.6
vs. Division Games Avg 5.14 4.5
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.59 4.43
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 7 3.86
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.86 3.71
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.5 4.17
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 5.22 4.54
After a Win Games Avg 5.06 4.16
After a Lost Games Avg 4.77 4.23
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.38 2.81
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 5.36 4.09
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 5.75 5.5
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.18 4.36
After an Over Games Avg 5.07 3.83
After an Under Games Avg 4.78 4.26
After a Push Games Avg 5 11
5.12 4.56

 

At the end of the day, Toronto knows that either their streak breaks here and now, or they get back on track and win another 5 straight. Given the ATS Matchup positioning, it seems more likely that Toronto is going to put their foot to the accelerator here instead of going silently into the night as is common with teams that are fresh off of streaks.

No matter what, it will be an interesting game to watch and one gets the feeling that betting on Toronto these days might not be such a bad thing. There is no way to look back at this game, no matter what the result, and feel as if Toronto didn’t have a chance to win right through all 9 innings.

This is a feel good play and promises to be an intensely exciting game whether it’s about the bump, or whether it’s about plate, this is the game to watch tonight.

 

Tonight’s Prediction: Toronto to win 6-4.

 

 

 

 

 

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