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Seattle Mariners (Iwakuma) vs. Atlanta Braves (Minor) – Preview June 4th, 2014

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Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners 
O/U :73.95
Vs.Date: 2014-06-04
Time: 11:10:00Generated from 66 Previous Games
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
SIDE :-137
3.95 = 7.9

 

VALUE

After 4 straight wins, people are betting negative progression systems on Seattle to lose.
This will cause some inflated value on Seattle where people aren’t betting who’s on the field, but rather, the W/L history.

We can see the inflation when we compare Seattle being powerrated at -100 with their opening odds of +125.

We also saw this with Tampa Bay the other day where they were 6 straight losses and yet somehow priced the favourite against Miami, despite having completely inferior pitching/hitting.
In fact, today Tampa Bay are powerrated at -100 but are actually priced at -185 for exactly this reason. 8 straight losses will have people betting them to win, regardless of anything else, and the proof is in the value.

For this same reason, we shouldn’t let the value with Seattle scare us off as being “suspicious” or “too good”. They have won 4 straight and people will begin betting them to lose.

 

Let’s look:

PITCHING

On the bump for Seattle today is Hisashi Iwakuma.
Iwakuma has accrued a respectable 3.09ERA all season. Iwakuma is 3.68ERA at home, but Iwakuma has had a shaky 4.71ERA L3G.

On the bump for Atlanta today is Mike Minor.
Minor has accrued a responsible 3.41ERA all season but Minor pitches a tedious 5.02ERA when at home. That said, Minor has been throwing some of his best stuff L3G with an ERA of 2.70.

It should also be noted that Minor has historically stymied the likes of Cano and Bloomquist across 9 at bats to the tune of 0.000AVG and Minor has stymied Buck across 21 at bats to the tune of 0.71ERA.

 

BULLPEN

  • The Mariners have a solid pen sporting 2.90ERA all games and 2.77 on the road.
  • The Braves have a comparable pen sporting 3.13ERA all games and 2.66 at home.

 

HITTING

  • Seattle bats 4.2RPG all games but does their best work on the road averaging 4.9RPG. They are unaffected by LHP where they achieve 4.2RPG.
  • Atlanta bats are 3.5RPG all games. They are a comparable 3.6 at home, and 3.3 vs RHP.

 

UMPIRE

Marty Foster shows a trend where the home underdog has won 3 out of 3 contests.
This is a concerning factor that should mitigate our bet size to a 1/2 unit or less.

 

FORECAST

SEA 3.95 vs ATL 3.95 across 66 samples.
Given that the Mariners are paid as +227 dogs, they have clear value on this pick.

 

ATS MATCHUPS

ATS Matchups tends to show Atlanta with a small advantage.

 

RAYMOND REPORT

 

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB
Game Date – 2014-06-04
Road Team :- (3025) SEATTLE
Home Team :- (3026 )ATLANTA

 

SEATTLETeam Name: SEATTLE(Road Team)
Money Line: SEATTLE +124 vs ATLANTA -134
Spread Line: SEATTLE +1.5 -185 —– ATLANTA -1.5 +165
O/U: SEATTLE 7 +115 —– ATLANTA 7 -135
Pitchers: SEATTLE – H Iwakuma (R) vs ATLANTA – M Minor (L)
Game Date: Wednesday,June 04 2014 11:10 AM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Atlanta Braves
Current Game: Atlanta Braves
Next Game: At TAMPA BAY
Stats & Trends: SEATTLE vs. ATLANTA
PVI Rating on Winning: 51.72%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 49.09%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 36.74%
Streaks: 4 SU Win – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 41%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 58%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.15
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 2.68
Road Team
(SEATTLE)
When SEATTLE is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When SEATTLE is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 4-1 89-107 62.71 3-2-0 87-75-34 43.15
vs Non-Division opponent 7-12 242-304 40.58 9-9-1 224-285-37 53
vs Non-Conference opponent 3-9 79-121 32.25 5-6-1 84-109-7 55.52
Playing in the month of June 2-1 21-21 58.34 2-1-0 17-20-5 43.69
Playing on Wednesday 2-6 65-84 34.31 2-5-1 54-86-9 66.43
Played as road Underdog 9-18 274-397 37.08 11-15-1 293-327-51 55.22
After a Non-Division Game 8-11 245-294 43.78 7-12-0 218-284-37 59.87
After a Non-Conference Game 3-5 75-112 38.81 2-6-0 78-99-10 65.47
vs AL WEST Division Opponent 9-14 54-78 40.02 7-15-1 54-67-11 61.78
vs AL Conference Opponent 13-17 190-247 43.41 11-18-1 189-226-22 58.27
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 0-3 65-94 20.44 0-3-0 66-74-19 76.43
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 3-5 213-273 40.67 2-6-0 214-231-41 63.46
Coming off 1 over 6-6 95-113 47.84 5-7-0 98-90-20 53.1
Coming off a lost 9-17 248-305 39.74 8-16-2 221-288-44 61.63
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 3-8 152-194 35.6 2-8-1 142-174-30 67.53
During a day game 5-9 142-179 39.98 6-7-1 134-164-23 54.44
Coming off a 3 road trip (since 1996) 3-2 3-4 51.43 0-5-0 3-3-1 75
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 8-5 137-151 54.56 7-6-0 134-130-24 47.7
vs ATLANTA (since 1996) 2-3 13-29 35.48 3-1-1 11-26-5 47.64
Coming off a Lost over NL EAST division opponent 0-3 42-53 22.11 0-3-0 33-49-13 79.88
Coming off a game that went over 6-6 95-113 47.84 5-7-0 98-90-20 53.1
Coming off a Road double header 2-12 18-60 18.69 3-9-2 20-48-10 72.8
Coming off a night game 9-19 262-338 37.91 9-18-1 250-301-49 60.65
Coming off a game 1 of a series 3-6 125-148 39.56 3-5-1 123-130-20 56.94
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 1-5 70-85 30.92 1-4-1 71-71-13 65
Last 30 days 7-7 194-244 47.15 6-7-1 183-219-36 54.17
Last 45 days 11-13 294-367 45.16 10-13-1 281-323-57 55
Last 60 days 13-24 385-495 39.45 13-22-2 382-434-64 58.03
Last 90 days 16-26 419-528 41.17 16-24-2 412-467-68 56.57
Vs. Left handed pitchers 5-6 130-135 47.26 4-6-1 119-125-21 55.62
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 11-16 305-370 42.97 11-14-2 280-344-51 55.57
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 5-10 180-216 39.39 4-10-1 156-212-28 64.52
TEAM: SEATTLE
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.14 2.85
Home Games Avg 2.83 3.03
Road Games Avg 3.4 2.69
Last 3 Games Avg 5.67 2.33
Last 5 Games Avg 4.2 1.4
Last 10 Games Avg 3.9 2.9
vs. Division Games Avg 3.09 2.79
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.27 2.8
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 1.86 3.29
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.48 3.08
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2.9 2.9
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3 2.7
After a Win Games Avg 2.8 2.63
After a Lost Games Avg 2.43 2.43
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.25 2.19
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 2.15 2.62
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.29 3.14
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 2.67 2.27
After an Over Games Avg 3.11 2.75
After an Under Games Avg 2.9 2.98
After a Push Games Avg 3.71 2.43
3.15 2.68
ATLANTATeam Name: ATLANTA(Home Team)
Money Line: ATLANTA -134 vs SEATTLE +124
Spread Line: ATLANTA -1.5 +165 —– SEATTLE +1.5 -185
O/U: ATLANTA 7 -135 —– SEATTLE 7 +115
Pitchers: ATLANTA – M Minor (L) vs SEATTLE – H Iwakuma (R)
Game Date: Wednesday,June 04 2014 11:10 AM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Seattle Mariners
Current Game: Seattle Mariners
Next Game: At ARIZONA
Stats & Trends: ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE
PVI Rating on Winning: 54.39%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 62.26%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 65.31%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 45%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 45%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 2.54
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 2.44
Home Team
(ATLANTA)
When ATLANTA is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When ATLANTA is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 12-6 102-94 59.36 9-6-3 87-75-34 43.15
vs Non-Division opponent 12-15 256-290 45.67 7-17-3 224-285-37 63.41
vs Non-Conference opponent 0-6 93-107 23.25 3-3-0 84-109-7 53.24
Playing in the month of June 0-2 17-25 20.24 1-1-0 17-20-5 52.03
Playing on Wednesday 2-4 66-83 38.82 1-3-2 54-86-9 68.22
Played as home Favorite 17-18 331-317 49.83 9-21-5 293-306-49 60.55
After a Non-Division Game 11-12 240-286 46.73 5-15-3 216-275-35 65.51
After a Non-Conference Game 0-2 86-112 21.72 1-1-0 83-106-9 53.04
vs AL WEST Division Opponent 0-2 52-88 18.57 1-1-0 63-69-8 51.14
vs AL Conference Opponent 0-6 203-246 22.61 3-3-0 211-217-21 50.35
Coming off vs AL WEST Division Opponent (since 1996) 13-7 55-72 54.16 9-9-2 58-61-8 50.63
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 0-2 192-236 22.43 1-1-0 202-206-20 50.25
Coming off 1 under 1-9 104-136 26.67 2-7-1 96-130-14 67.65
Coming off a lost 11-19 254-276 42.3 6-20-4 231-265-34 65.18
Coming off a Home Lost as a Underdog 4-5 81-92 45.63 2-5-2 67-91-15 64.51
During a day game 4-5 158-163 46.83 2-6-1 134-164-23 65.02
Coming off a 2 home stand (since 1996) 18-19 5-13 38.22 17-17-3 9-9-0 50
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 6-4 123-119 55.42 3-6-1 105-116-21 59.58
vs SEATTLE (since 1996) 2-3 13-29 35.48 3-1-1 16-24-2 42.5
Coming off a Lost over AL WEST division opponent (since 1996) 5-3 35-51 51.6 3-3-2 41-41-4 50
Coming off a game that went under 4-1 105-110 64.42 1-3-1 103-97-15 61.75
Coming off a Home double header 6-9 34-50 40.24 4-9-2 24-52-8 68.83
Coming off a night game 14-16 289-334 46.53 7-19-4 269-308-46 63.23
Coming off a game 1 of a series 4-4 130-143 48.81 2-6-0 123-130-20 63.19
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 1-3 63-71 36.01 1-3-0 57-68-9 64.7
Coming off back to back Shutouts offense 4-6 24-47 36.9 3-6-1 23-42-6 65.65
Last 30 days 9-12 210-228 45.41 6-12-3 183-219-36 60.58
Last 45 days 14-19 308-353 44.51 7-22-4 281-323-57 64.67
Last 60 days 18-24 414-466 44.96 11-26-5 382-434-64 61.73
Last 90 days 18-24 443-504 44.82 11-26-5 412-467-68 61.7
Vs. Right handed pitchers 15-20 321-374 44.53 9-21-5 313-336-46 60.89
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 13-21 311-366 42.09 9-20-5 281-349-47 62.19
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 9-14 173-208 42.27 5-15-3 154-202-25 65.87
TEAM: ATLANTA
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 2.65 2.53
Home Games Avg 2.67 2.31
Road Games Avg 2.64 2.82
Last 3 Games Avg 1.67 2.33
Last 5 Games Avg 3.6 2.8
Last 10 Games Avg 2.7 3
vs. Division Games Avg 2.59 2.19
vs. Conference Games Avg 2.72 2.4
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 2.13 3.63
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 2.95 2.6
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2.35 2.88
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 2.22 1.22
After a Win Games Avg 2.97 2.65
After a Lost Games Avg 1.96 1.77
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.31 2.38
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 2.23 2.15
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.72 2.83
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 1.69 1.38
After an Over Games Avg 2.8 1.4
After an Under Games Avg 2.76 2.98
After a Push Games Avg 2.11 2.89
2.54 2.44

 

The Report gives Atlanta a small advantage here as well.

 

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Both teams even at 54 SOS points.

 

BETTING SYNOPSIS

The bottom line is, since there is value with the Seattle pick, it might be worth a small 1/2u play in this position.

 

Today’s Prediction: SEATTLE to win 3-2.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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