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Milwaukee Brewers (Peralta) vs. Minnesota Twins (Correia) – Preview June 5th, 2014

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Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 
SIDE :-127

5.55

Vs.

Date: 2014-06-05
Time: 19:10:00

Generated from 59 Previous Games

Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins
O/U :8.5

4.61 = 10.16

 

There is no way to let this pick go.

The splits are all in favour of Peralta to sohw up and for Correia to collapse.

At -127, Milwaukee is a really good deal.

Although Minnesota averages 4.2RPG all season, and Milwaukee only 4.0RPG, in their last 7 sortees the Twins have only managed 3.7RPG while Milwaukee is back to hitting red hot with a league elite 6.0RPG L7G.

The respect that the Brewers’ hitting commands is a huge piece of this puzzle.

The other point here is the pitching:

Peralta is 1.88ERA at away.
Peralta is 1.88ERA at night.
Peralta is 4.86ERA L3G

Correia is 7.09ERA at home.
Correia is is 10.95 at night.
Correia is 3.79ERA L3G.

So in terms of recent outings, Correia is slightly better.
However in the bigger picture of things including the splits, we should expect Peralta to throw his stuff tonight; whereas, Correia should prove to struggle somewhat.

Neither pitcher has anything to brag about facing these teams, and this total has every likelyhood of going OVER the total:

  • Peralta is 0-1 vs Minnesota with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 2.000.
  • Correia is 5-6 vs Milwaukee with an ERA of 5.10 and a WHIP of 1.393.

 

With Milwaukee’s hitting streak of late, although both these pitchers are equally poor, Milwaukee should have the bigger advantage hitting tonight.

 

The bullpens are dead even and shouldn’t factor into the result.

 

Umpire Chris Segal is 4-5 for the home team but 7-2 of his games have gone over the total.
Over totals typically mean small strike zones. Small strike zones tend to benefit the better pitcher, and the less bats. So Peralta might get an edge, but the Twins hitting should also get a small boost.
Basically, the umpire influence should even out.

 

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB
Game Date – 2014-06-05
Road Team :- (3425) MILWAUKEE
Home Team :- (3426 )MINNESOTA

 

MILWAUKEETeam Name: MILWAUKEE(Road Team)
Money Line: MILWAUKEE -123 vs MINNESOTA +113
Spread Line: MILWAUKEE -1.5 +130 —– MINNESOTA +1.5 -150
O/U: MILWAUKEE 8.5 -120 —– MINNESOTA 8.5 +100
Pitchers: MILWAUKEE – W Peralta (R) vs MINNESOTA – K Correia (R)
Game Date: Thursday,June 05 2014 7:10 PM
Last Game: lost 4 – 6 vs Minnesota Twins
Current Game: Minnesota Twins
Next Game: At PITTSBURGH
Stats & Trends: MILWAUKEE vs. MINNESOTA
PVI Rating on Winning: 58.33%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 46.43%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 51.02%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 49%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 45%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.37
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.94
Road Team
(MILWAUKEE)
When MILWAUKEE is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When MILWAUKEE is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8.5 4-2 70-73 57.81 3-3-0 62-81-0 53.32
vs Non-Division opponent 9-6 251-308 52.45 8-5-2 231-290-38 47.06
vs Non-Conference opponent 3-1 84-122 57.89 2-2-0 86-112-8 53.29
Playing in the month of June 0-1 31-26 27.2 1-0-0 26-25-6 24.51
Playing on Thursday 1-3 52-51 37.75 4-0-0 49-50-4 25.26
Played as road Favorite 4-5 147-130 48.76 5-3-1 122-138-17 45.29
After a Non-Division Game 9-5 254-298 55.15 7-5-2 225-289-38 48.95
After a Non-Conference Game 2-2 80-113 45.73 2-2-0 80-102-11 53.02
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 7-7 83-101 47.56 9-5-0 83-88-13 43.59
vs NL Conference Opponent 13-12 234-284 48.59 15-8-2 226-246-46 43.45
Coming off vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 0-1 76-87 23.32 1-0-0 79-79-5 25
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 2-2 203-249 47.46 2-2-0 196-229-27 51.94
Coming off a 2 losing streak 2-1 56-55 58.56 1-2-0 54-54-3 58.34
Coming off 2 over 2-2 44-56 47 3-1-0 53-41-6 34.31
Coming off a lost 8-6 252-309 51.03 7-5-2 225-291-45 49.04
Coming off a Road Lost as a Favorite 2-3 57-58 44.79 3-2-0 43-65-7 50.1
During a night game 10-7 286-354 51.76 14-2-1 287-307-46 32.09
Coming off a 2 runs loss 0-2 43-30 29.45 2-0-0 29-41-3 29.29
Coming off a score 4 runs FOR in last game 2-3 59-58 45.22 3-2-0 56-57-4 45.22
Coming off a score 6 runs AGAINST in last game 1-2 28-40 37.26 1-2-0 31-32-5 58.73
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 7-7 160-221 46 10-4-0 161-194-26 41.61
vs MINNESOTA (since 1996) 18-29 14-17 41.73 22-23-2 15-14-2 49.7
Coming off a Lost over AL Central division opponent 0-1 41-53 21.81 1-0-0 45-48-1 25.81
Coming off a night game 9-7 272-343 50.24 9-6-1 259-306-50 47.08
Coming off a game 1 of a series 5-3 132-149 54.74 4-4-0 128-133-20 50.48
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 3-1 73-86 60.46 2-2-0 72-74-13 50.34
Last 30 days 4-7 198-240 40.79 5-4-2 189-214-35 48.77
Last 45 days 7-11 297-362 41.98 10-6-2 284-319-56 45.2
Last 60 days 14-13 387-493 47.92 16-9-2 383-433-64 44.53
Last 90 days 16-13 429-533 49.88 17-10-2 421-472-69 44.95
Vs. Right handed pitchers 12-11 294-398 47.33 14-8-1 300-345-47 44.93
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 14-12 312-375 49.63 15-9-2 288-348-51 46.11
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 8-4 184-219 56.17 6-4-2 159-215-29 48.75
TEAM: MILWAUKEE
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.16 3.77
Home Games Avg 4.09 3.47
Road Games Avg 4.24 4.1
Last 3 Games Avg 4.67 4.67
Last 5 Games Avg 4.6 4.4
Last 10 Games Avg 6.2 4.4
vs. Division Games Avg 3.59 3.93
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.84 3.63
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 5.5 4.33
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 5.67 2.67
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.75 3.97
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.5 3.65
After a Win Games Avg 3.94 4.03
After a Lost Games Avg 4.33 3.54
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.13 3.88
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.36 3.91
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.79 4.16
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.31 3.23
After an Over Games Avg 4.59 3.97
After an Under Games Avg 3.85 3.44
After a Push Games Avg 3.75 5.5
4.37 3.94
MINNESOTATeam Name: MINNESOTA(Home Team)
Money Line: MINNESOTA +113 vs MILWAUKEE -123
Spread Line: MINNESOTA +1.5 -150 —– MILWAUKEE -1.5 +130
O/U: MINNESOTA 8.5 +100 —– MILWAUKEE 8.5 -120
Pitchers: MINNESOTA – K Correia (R) vs MILWAUKEE – W Peralta (R)
Game Date: Thursday,June 05 2014 7:10 PM
Last Game: win 4 – 6 vs Milwaukee Brewers
Current Game: Milwaukee Brewers
Next Game: Vs. HOUSTON
Stats & Trends: MINNESOTA vs. MILWAUKEE
PVI Rating on Winning: 49.12%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 38.89%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 42.86%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 2 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 46%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 46%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.04
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.24
Home Team
(MINNESOTA)
When MINNESOTA is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When MINNESOTA is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8.5 5-7 65-78 43.56 8-4-0 62-81-0 44.99
vs Non-Division opponent 10-15 260-299 43.26 12-12-1 231-290-38 52.83
vs Non-Conference opponent 1-4 94-112 32.82 3-2-0 86-112-8 48.29
Playing in the month of June 1-0 22-35 69.3 1-0-0 26-25-6 24.51
Playing on Thursday 3-4 42-61 41.82 3-4-0 49-50-4 53.83
Played as home Underdog 11-13 112-188 41.58 13-9-2 122-159-19 48.75
After a Non-Division Game 10-13 244-295 44.38 11-11-1 223-280-36 52.84
After a Non-Conference Game 1-5 87-117 29.66 3-2-1 85-109-10 48.1
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 1-0 99-101 74.75 1-0-0 77-108-15 29.19
vs NL Conference Opponent 1-4 244-262 34.11 3-2-0 206-252-48 47.51
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 1-0 97-94 75.4 1-0-0 70-103-18 29.77
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 1-5 246-265 32.41 3-2-1 208-255-48 47.54
Coming off a 2 winning streak 2-3 42-71 38.59 3-2-0 51-51-11 45
Coming off 2 over 2-1 55-41 61.98 0-3-0 48-42-6 73.34
Coming off a win 7-7 192-231 47.7 9-5-0 184-204-35 44.15
Coming off a Home Win as a Underdog 4-4 39-59 44.9 5-3-0 39-53-6 47.56
During a night game 7-9 290-350 44.53 9-7-0 287-307-46 47.72
Coming off a 2 runs win 1-3 33-43 34.21 3-1-0 32-39-5 39.97
Coming off a score 6 runs FOR in last game 3-0 37-38 74.67 1-1-1 34-36-5 50.72
Coming off a score 4 runs AGAINST in last game 2-1 49-66 54.64 1-2-0 51-58-6 59.94
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 9-11 124-125 47.4 9-10-1 109-118-22 52.31
vs MILWAUKEE (since 1996) 29-18 12-17 51.54 22-23-2 17-10-2 44.08
Coming off a Win over NL CENTRAL division opponent 1-0 40-45 73.53 1-0-0 30-44-11 29.73
Coming off a night game 8-9 294-344 46.57 8-8-1 278-313-47 51.48
Coming off a game 1 of a series 5-4 131-150 51.09 4-4-1 128-133-20 50.48
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 2-1 68-74 57.28 2-1-0 67-64-11 41.09
Last 30 days 6-5 208-230 51.02 6-4-1 189-214-35 46.55
Last 45 days 9-12 305-354 44.57 9-10-2 284-319-56 52.77
Last 60 days 14-17 412-468 45.99 15-14-2 383-433-64 50.67
Last 90 days 14-17 448-514 45.87 15-14-2 421-472-69 50.57
Vs. Right handed pitchers 10-14 325-383 43.79 12-10-2 322-339-47 48.37
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 13-15 315-374 46.08 13-13-2 287-354-48 52.62
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 4-4 137-161 47.99 4-4-0 129-143-26 51.29
TEAM: MINNESOTA
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.07 4.38
Home Games Avg 4 4.16
Road Games Avg 4.14 4.62
Last 3 Games Avg 4.67 4.67
Last 5 Games Avg 4.4 3.8
Last 10 Games Avg 3.8 3.6
vs. Division Games Avg 4.59 4.5
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.33 4.4
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3 4.33
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.35 4.85
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.32 4.77
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.56 3.39
After a Win Games Avg 3.74 4.7
After a Lost Games Avg 4.38 4.14
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.21 6
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.73 4.73
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.23 3.31
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4 3.5
After an Over Games Avg 4.59 4.59
After an Under Games Avg 3.5 4.33
After a Push Games Avg 3.33 2.33
4.04 4.24

 

The Raymond Report shows Milwaukee to be slightly better.

 

ATS Matchups

Reports show these teams are dead even in this position.

 

 

All in all, basically because of the monstrous hitting and with Correia having a very tough time of late, we like Milwaukee to finish 9 innings in the “W” category.

 

Tonight’s Prediction: MILWAUKEE to win 7-4.

 

 

 

 

 

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