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New York Mets (Niese) vs. San Francisco Giants (Cain) – Preview June 6th, 2014

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New York Mets
New York Mets 
O/U :73.96
Vs.Date: 2014-06-06
Time: 21:15:00Generated from 59 Previous Games
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
SIDE :-143
4.45 = 8.41

PITCHING

Pitching for the Mets today is Jon Niese.

  • Niese has had an excellent season with a 2.69ERA overall, 2.43 on the road, and 3.05 L3G.
  • Niese’s consistency has guaranteed the Mets a chance in every game that they’ve played.
  • Niese is 1-2 when facing San Fran and marks a 2.33ERA with a WHIP of 1.185 across all 3 outings.

Pitching for the Giants today is Matt Cain.

  • Cain has tallied 4.05ERA overall, but is a respectable 3.07 at home and marks a 3.45 L3G.
  • Cain has pitched solid this season but will need some run support if he wants to find the “W”.
  • Cain is 5-5 vs the Mets with a 3.57ERA and a WHIP of 1.302 across all 10 outings.

Niese looks to be the better starter.

That said, in this case, we can’t ignore the B vs P stats:

Niese:
Adrianza .333 across 3AB
Arias .333 across 6AB
Colvin .333 across 3AB
Perez 1.000 across 2AB
Posey .333 across 12AB
Sanchez .333 across 6AB
Sandoval .429 across 7AB

Cain:
Dekker 1.000 across 1AB
Tejada .364 across 11AB
Wright .400 across 10AB

So while Niese is looking generally better this season, it seems as though San Francisco has a bead on him and knows how to hit when facing him. Although not all of these hitters are in tonight’s lineup, it amount of SFG hitters clocking +.300 establishes that they know something about Niese that might make it difficult for Niese to throw a low hitting game.

All chips down, we should consider the pitching matchup as just about even. At -150, we could be thinking about fading SFG based on this matchup alone.

 

HITTING

  • The Mets average 4.0RPG overall.
  • The Mets are 4.9RPG on the road.
  • The Mets are 3.9 vs RHP.
  • The Mets are 4.9 L7G.
  • The Giants average 4.3RPG overall.
  • The Giants are 4.2RPG at home.
  • The Giants are 3.9 vs LHP.
  • The Giants are 5.0 L7G

Again, looking strictly at how evenly matched the hitting has been, the Mets might be the better value so far.

 

BULLPEN

  • The NYM bullpen is 3.39 overall.
  • The NYM bullpen is 3.04 on the road.
  • The SFG bullpen is 2.38 overall.
  • The SFG bullpen is 1.59 at home.

As good as the Mets’ pen is, SFG is clearly better still. Few teams can shut down games the way that the Giants can and if they can manage a close game headed into the back 5, they have every opportunity to find a favourable outcome.

 

Did you know:

  • The New York Mets are 6-1 vs San Francisco the last 3 season when playing @ San Fransisco.
  • The San Fransisco Giants are 14-8 vs LHP
  • The Mets are 2-6 when playing on a Friday
  • The Giants are 7-2 when playing on a Friday
  • The Giants are 23-15 at night.
  • The Mets are 16-23 at night.

 

So there are a few fun facts that seem to help out the case for San Fransisco.
Ultimately, without the ATS STATS consideration, we wouldn’t be finding the SFG pick.
In fact, we might even fade it. That said, let’s see why ATS STATS considerations make all the difference…

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Historical considerations that SUPPORT the Giants pick:

When CAIN MATT \’s Team played as Favourite- in the month of June 16-9-0
When SAN FRANCISCO played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 6 and 7 8-2-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a Home team – After a conference game – During a night game – Coming off a 2 game winning streak – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 15-7-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a conference game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite – Coming off a Road win 17-8-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a Home team – Vs. Left handed pitchers – During a night game – Coming off a 2 game winning streak – Allowed 1 runs or less AGAINST in their last game 7-4-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Playing on Friday – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite – Coming off a Road win 9-2-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a Home team – Before a non division game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Road win 11-7-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a home team – During the month of June – During a night game 80-52-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent 329-214-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – During a night game 135-49-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Vs. Left handed pitchers 104-52-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs. Left handed pitchers 135-49-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Vs Non Division Opponent 353-225-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – 1st game of a series – During a night game 213-128-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – Playing on Friday – During a night game 104-63-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a home team – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Vs Non Division Opponent 128-83-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Before a non division game 311-195-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – After a non division game – During a night game 59-38-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – During a night game – Vs Non Division Opponent 61-37-0
When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – During the month of June 27-17-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Playing on Friday – 1st game of a series – During the month of June – Coming off a series win – Scored 6 or more runs FOR in their last game 15-9-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Playing on Friday – During a night game – During the month of June – Coming off a series win – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 31-16-0
When SAN FRANCISCO played as a home team – During Last 3 Years – Won Last Game by 5 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G 30 – 20 – 0
When SAN FRANCISCO Played as home team as a Favorite – During Current Season – Won Last Game by 5 Runs or Less 8 – 5 – 0
When SAN FRANCISCO Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – Won Last Game by 5 Runs or More – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G 15 – 9 – 0
When SAN FRANCISCO Played as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years – Won Last Game by 5 Runs 9 – 1 – 0
When SAN FRANCISCO Played as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – Won Last Game by 5 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G 39 – 18 – 0
When SAN FRANCISCO played as a home team – During Last 2 Years – Won Last Game by 5 Runs or More 16 – 6 – 0

 

When NY METS team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – During a night game – Playing on Friday 9-27-0
When NY METS team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During the month of June 7-16-0
When NY METS team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Before a non division game 30-62-0
When NY METS team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – Playing on Friday – Vs Non Division Opponent 7-15-0
When ANY MLB Team (Mets) played as a 120 to 140 Road Underdog – Playing on Friday – Vs Non Division Opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a series loss – Coming off a 3 run lost 6-16-0 10-12-0

Historical considerations that THREATEN the Giants pick:

When J NIESE \’s Team played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 6 and 7 6-4-0
When NY METS team played as a Road team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off a 2 game over 19-11-0
When ANY MLB Team (Mets) Played as Road team as a Underdog – Playing on Friday – Vs NL WEST opponent – Coming off a 3 run lost – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 10-6-0 8-8-0
When NY METS Played as road team as a Underdog – During Current Season – With 2 Over or More 7 – 3 – 0 7 – 1 – 2
When SAN FRANCISCO played as Home or Away Team- Vs NY METS 3-7-0

 

After looking at the Matchups, we can see that something about this position right in San Fransisco’s wheelhouse and something about it is less than optimal for New York.

 

STRENGTH OF SCEDULE

NYM 27 – 31 46.55 53.45 48.36 0.47 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 32.65 0.38 7 – 7 50 50 44.39 0.47
SFG 39 – 21 65.00 35.00 48.12 0.57 5 – 2 71.43 28.57 40.81 0.56 10 – 3 76.92 23.08 40.38 0.59

 

This is why the SOS is so powerful. Although NYM is 3-4 L7G, for their PR to be 0.38 it would mean that they’ve been up against some serious rubber competition. So although we noted that their RPG were comparable to SFG, the truth is, they’ve been up against some of the worst pitching in the league. When we look back. CHICAGO (3 game series) and PHILADELPHIA (4 game series) were who NYM faced L7G. So this is definitely a cause to handicap our analysis about their RPG being equal despite the fact the number is the same.

 

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB

Game Date – 2014-06-06
Road Team :- (3017) NY METS
Home Team :- (3018 )SAN FRANCISCO

 

NY METSTeam Name: NY METS(Road Team)
Money Line: NY METS +133 vs SAN FRANCISCO -143
Spread Line: NY METS +1.5 -175 —– SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +155
O/U: NY METS 7 +105 —– SAN FRANCISCO 7 -125
Pitchers: NY METS – J Niese (L) vs SAN FRANCISCO – M Cain (R)
Game Date: Friday,June 06 2014 9:15 PM
Last Game: lost 4 – 7 vs Chicago Cubs
Current Game: San Francisco Giants
Next Game: At SAN FRANCISCO
Stats & Trends: NY METS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
PVI Rating on Winning: 46.55%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 45.83%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 32.65%
Streaks: 3 SU Lost – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 41%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 49%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.5
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.41
Road Team
(NY METS)
When NY METS is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When NY METS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 4-4 93-109 48.02 1-1-6 90-76-36 47.89
vs Non-Division opponent 7-9 255-313 44.32 11-3-2 237-292-39 38.32
vs Conference opponent 4-7 169-189 41.79 6-3-2 148-179-31 44.04
Playing in the month of June 2-4 36-32 43.14 3-1-2 33-28-7 35.45
Playing on Friday 0-4 59-83 20.78 3-0-1 68-60-14 23.44
Played as road Underdog 14-22 283-405 40.01 15-12-9 304-333-51 48.36
After a Non-Division Game 8-9 258-303 46.53 8-6-3 231-291-39 49.31
After a Conference Game 4-8 180-202 40.23 7-3-2 158-193-31 42.5
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 8-14 75-111 38.34 5-10-7 70-91-25 61.6
vs NL Conference Opponent 12-21 236-287 40.74 11-13-9 229-247-47 53.03
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 2-3 87-104 42.78 2-3-0 83-95-13 56.69
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 12-21 220-279 40.23 12-13-8 220-237-42 51.93
Coming off a 2 losing streak 0-2 57-55 25.45 1-0-1 55-54-3 24.77
Coming off 2 over 2-2 45-56 47.28 3-0-1 54-41-6 21.58
Coming off a lost 7-15 253-311 38.34 10-8-4 227-292-45 50.35
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 6-11 154-199 39.46 10-4-3 146-177-30 41.69
During a night game 10-19 288-358 39.53 13-10-6 292-308-46 47.41
Coming off a 9 road trip (since 1996) 7-4 4-9 47.21 5-5-1 5-7-1 54.17
Coming off a 3 runs loss 1-1 27-31 48.28 1-0-1 25-30-3 27.28
Coming off a score 4 runs FOR in last game 3-3 60-61 49.8 5-0-1 59-58-4 24.79
Coming off a score 7 runs AGAINST in last game 1-1 23-28 47.55 2-0-0 21-27-3 28.13
vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % 2-2 35-50 45.59 1-3-0 33-48-4 67.13
vs SAN FRANCISCO (since 1996) 28-35 9-19 38.29 28-35-0 13-15-0 54.57
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 1-3 50-58 35.65 2-2-0 43-54-11 52.84
Coming off a night game 8-19 277-349 36.94 12-9-6 266-309-51 48.3
Coming off a series loss 3-4 75-104 42.38 3-2-2 81-84-14 45.46
Last 30 days 7-9 195-237 44.45 8-3-5 189-207-36 39.77
Last 45 days 9-17 296-359 39.91 11-8-7 287-313-55 47.14
Last 60 days 15-23 383-493 41.6 16-13-9 384-427-65 48.74
Last 90 days 15-23 434-539 42.04 16-13-9 428-475-70 48.72
Vs. Right handed pitchers 11-15 299-403 42.45 10-11-5 306-348-48 52.8
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 2-7 110-149 32.35 3-3-3 126-116-17 48.97
Coming off lost vs. Left handed pitcher 3-4 60-82 42.56 4-3-0 58-69-15 48.6
TEAM: NY METS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.39 3.4
Home Games Avg 2.81 3.28
Road Games Avg 3.87 3.5
Last 3 Games Avg 2.67 4
Last 5 Games Avg 4 3.2
Last 10 Games Avg 4.3 3
vs. Division Games Avg 2.84 2.86
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.22 3.08
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4.86 6.29
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.23 4.73
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 2.32 2.36
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.64 2.86
After a Win Games Avg 3.78 2.89
After a Lost Games Avg 3.17 3.57
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.67 3.33
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.57 3.79
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.92 2.33
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 2.81 3.38
After an Over Games Avg 4 4.32
After an Under Games Avg 2.5 2.83
After a Push Games Avg 3.93 2.57
3.5 3.41
SAN FRANCISCOTeam Name: SAN FRANCISCO(Home Team)
Money Line: SAN FRANCISCO -143 vs NY METS +133
Spread Line: SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +155 —– NY METS +1.5 -175
O/U: SAN FRANCISCO 7 -125 —– NY METS 7 +105
Pitchers: SAN FRANCISCO – M Cain (R) vs NY METS – J Niese (L)
Game Date: Friday,June 06 2014 9:15 PM
Last Game: win 6 – 1 vs Cincinnati Reds
Current Game: New York Mets
Next Game: Vs. NY METS
Stats & Trends: SAN FRANCISCO vs. NY METS
PVI Rating on Winning: 65%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 53.45%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 40.81%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 1 Push
Home Teams % of winning this game: 56%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 56%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.23
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.23
Home Team
(SAN FRANCISCO)
When SAN FRANCISCO is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When SAN FRANCISCO is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 6-3 104-98 59.08 3-6-0 90-76-36 56.23
vs Non-Division opponent 12-4 265-303 60.83 7-9-0 237-292-39 55.73
vs Conference opponent 6-4 169-189 53.61 4-6-0 148-179-31 57.37
Playing in the month of June (since 1996) 132-96 28-40 49.54 94-118-16 33-28-7 50.78
Playing on Friday 3-1 73-69 63.21 3-1-0 68-60-14 35.94
Played as home Favorite 18-8 339-326 60.11 13-13-0 304-312-49 50.33
After a Non-Division Game 9-5 249-299 54.87 7-7-0 229-282-37 52.6
After a Conference Game 8-3 183-192 60.77 4-7-0 154-191-30 59.5
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 4-3 73-81 52.27 3-4-0 68-64-22 52.81
vs NL Conference Opponent 13-9 247-266 53.62 10-12-0 210-254-49 54.65
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 2-0 98-95 75.39 0-2-0 71-104-18 79.72
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 15-7 249-269 58.13 9-13-0 212-257-49 56.95
Coming off a 2 winning streak 3-2 43-72 48.7 3-2-0 52-52-11 45
Coming off 1 push (since 1996) 41-28 20-34 48.23 35-30-4 23-27-4 50.08
Coming off a win 11-7 194-232 53.33 7-11-0 186-205-35 56.77
Coming off a Road Win as a Favorite (since 1996) 31-16 6-9 52.98 23-21-3 9-5-1 41.72
During a night game 11-6 294-352 55.11 7-10-0 292-308-46 55.08
Coming off a 7 road trip 1-0 18-8 84.62 1-0-0 13-12-1 24
Coming off a 5 runs win (since 1996) 32-24 12-16 50 25-29-2 11-15-2 55.7
Coming off a score 6 runs FOR in last game 2-2 37-39 49.34 1-3-0 35-36-5 62.85
Coming off a score 1 runs AGAINST in last game 3-3 42-52 47.34 5-1-0 43-40-11 32.43
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 7-3 179-205 58.31 6-4-0 170-186-28 46.13
vs NY METS (since 1996) 35-28 15-23 47.52 28-35-0 16-13-9 50.2
Coming off a Win over NL CENTRAL division opponent 1-0 40-46 73.26 0-1-0 31-44-11 79.34
Coming off a day game 8-3 145-163 59.91 6-5-0 136-151-21 49.03
Coming off a series win 2-0 43-29 79.86 1-1-0 21-44-7 58.85
Last 30 days 9-4 207-225 58.58 6-7-0 189-207-36 53.06
Last 45 days 14-5 304-351 60.05 8-11-0 287-313-55 55.03
Last 60 days 19-9 412-464 57.45 13-15-0 384-427-65 53.11
Last 90 days 19-9 454-519 57.26 13-15-0 428-475-70 53.09
Vs. Left handed pitchers 4-3 125-133 52.8 1-6-0 101-134-23 71.37
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 15-8 319-377 55.53 11-12-0 293-355-48 53.48
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 9-5 139-162 55.24 7-7-0 131-144-26 51.18
TEAM: SAN FRANCISCO
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.31 3.33
Home Games Avg 4.18 3
Road Games Avg 4.42 3.61
Last 3 Games Avg 4 3.67
Last 5 Games Avg 4 2.6
Last 10 Games Avg 4.8 3
vs. Division Games Avg 4.13 3.66
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.24 3.53
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 5 1.5
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.91 3.65
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.47 2.58
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.63 3.68
After a Win Games Avg 3.97 3.5
After a Lost Games Avg 4.62 2.86
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.42 3.74
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.67 2.75
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.53 3.26
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.56 3
After an Over Games Avg 4.07 3.41
After an Under Games Avg 4.48 3.03
After a Push Games Avg 2.5 4.5
4.23 3.23

 

OK. So while we definitely highly advise ATS STATS members to use the database as a tool in combination all other relevant ideas and facts available to handicappers…when you have a team that is worse than the league average in absolutely every single consideration…as well as getting trounced in the ATS Matchups…then it’s fair to say that not only historically, but compared to the league average in real-time, that team is at the absolute bottom of the barrel. The report, in and of itself, is a high indicator of NYM’s chances to win tonight.

 

Bottom line, with all things even and without ATS STATS to show us different, either a ‘no bet’ or even a ‘NYM bet’ might follow based on the available obvious stats; however, after considering the ATS Database…it’s clear that even at -140 chalk, a case could be made that SFG still holds value and deserves a full unit play.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: SAN FRANCISCO to win 4-2.

 

 

 

 

 

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