1-YEAR MEMBERSHIP ONLY $9.99
We accept PayPal or Credit Cards!

St. Louis Cardinals (Miller) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Buehrle) – Preview for June 7th, 2014

WorldSeriesOfHandicapping.com

Also join us on our Facebook page:
facebook.com/WorldSeriesOfHandicapping

St Louis Cardinals
St Louis Cardinals 
O/U :9.53.94
Vs.Date: 2014-06-07
Time: 12:05:00

Generated from 34 Previous Games

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
SIDE :-155
4.69 = 8.63

 

For those of us that run multiple positive-progression systems, this game is in our wheelhouse.
Betting large units on high chalk is always a tedious and nervous proposition. If the pick loses (knock on wood) it takes 3 games to get back on track.

This is always a major consideration…

…because on the other hand…

…a winner is a winner regardless the odds.

The only question that we have to ask and answer here is…

Is – There – Value?

Let’s hope that ATS Stats can help give us some closure on the point.

With the Toronto Blue Jays powerrated at -125, and the current line at -155, we can at least rest assured that there is no blatant trap line here as there was with Milwaukee yesterday.

As a rule, the only time to bet high chalk is with a completely airtight case.
Going 21-1 betting high chalk is not losing.
Going 23-2 on high chalk is not losing.

 

Let’s look:

 

PITCHING

On the bump for St. Louis today is Shelby Miller.

  • Miller is pitching an average 4.06ERA all season.
  • Miller is 3.94ERA on the road.
  • Miller is 7.94ERA L3G.

 

On the bump for Toronto today is Mark Buehrle.

  • Buehrle is throwing a league-elite 2.10ERA all season.
  • Buehrle is 2.82ERA at home.
  • Buehrle is very good and very consistent showcasing a 2.08ERA L3G.

 

 

 

HITTING

  • St. Louis is averaging 3.8RPG all season.
  • St. Louis is 3.4RPG on the road.
  • St. Louis is 3.7RPG vs LHP.
  • Toronto is averaging a thundering 5.1RPG all season.
  • Toronto is averaging 5.5RPG at home.
  • Toronto is averaging 5.0RPG vs RHP.

 

 

BULLPENS

  • St. Louis is 3.73ERA all games.
  • St. Louis is 3.72ERA on the road.

  • Toronto is 4.62ERA all games.
  • Toronto is 4.23 at home.

The bullpens are perhaps the one spot where Toronto doesn’t have a clear and concise advantage. With that said, if you put the STL’s pen ERA up against TOR’s batting AVG, TOR still stands far better.

 

 

UMPIRE

Fieldin Culbreth is 7-4 for the home team so far this season.
Culbreth’s H/A ratio last season was 58%.
These stats indicate that Culbreth could have a slight bias for the home team.

 

 

MARKET CONSIDERATIONS

With 5 straight wins, Toronto should be seeing some negative progression bettors fading their 5-0 record. This means that STL will see more action than they deserve and as a result, we should see Toronto pay out at a higher value. Considering that Toronto is powerrated at -125, and is opening at -155, it’s fairly clear that there is no hanky panky going on. Toronto is not at all “Too Good To Be True” which is further re-enforced by the fact that there is no steam with St. Louis.

There is a low-to-nil chance of this being some kind of trap line.

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Historical Considerations that SUPPORT the Toronto pick in this position:

 

When TORONTO played as Home Favourite- With Total between 9.5 and 10.0 13-7-0
When TORONTO played as Home Favourite- With a spread between 140 and 160 12-3-0
When TORONTO played as Home Favourite- in the month of June 14-6-0
When TORONTO played as Favourite- With Total between 9.5 and 10.0 45-30-0
When TORONTO team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a day game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Allowed 1 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 75-45-0
When TORONTO team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of June – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Home win 10-4-0
When TORONTO team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a Home win 116-74-0
When TORONTO team played as a Home team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off 1 under – Allowed 1 runs AGAINST in their last game 12-7-0
When TORONTO team played as a Home team – Vs Non Conference Opponent – During the month of June – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Home win 7-4-0
When TORONTO team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – During a day game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off 1 under – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 8-2-0
When TORONTO team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 – During the month of June 9-6-0
When TORONTO team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – After a non conference game – Vs NL CENTRAL opponent 8-3-0
When ANY MLB Team (Blue Jays) Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Non Conference Opponent – 2nd game of a series – Playing on Saturday – Coming off a 2 run win – Allowed 1 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 32-18-0
When TORONTO Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 5 Win 0 Lost in L5G 9 – 2 – 0
When ST LOUIS played as Underdog- in the month of June 4-16-0
When ST LOUIS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During the month of June – Before a non division game – Allowed 3 runs or more AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a 2 game losing streak 4-8-0
When ST LOUIS team Played as road team as a Underdog – Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 – Vs. Left handed pitchers 19-36-0
When ANY MLB Team (Cardinals) played as a Road team – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Before a non division game – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off a Loss vs. AL EAST opponent 5-15-0
When ANY MLB Team (Cardinals) Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs AL Conference – Last 4 years – Before a non conference game – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 26-52-0

 

 

Historical Considerations that THREATEN the Toronto pick in this position:

When ST LOUIS team played as a Road team – During the month of June – During a day game – Allowed 3 runs or more AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 12-6-0

 

When TORONTO team Played as home team as a Favorite – During a day game – Vs NL CENTRAL opponent 3-8-0

 

Twinkle twinkle little stars, Blue Jays seem to win by far…

 

 

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

ST LOUIS 31 – 31 50.00 50.00 49.88 0.50 2 – 5 28.57 71.43 57.14 0.43 5 – 9 35.71 64.29 57.65 0.47
TORONTO 38 – 24 61.29 38.71 48.10 0.55 6 – 1 85.71 14.29 34.69 0.60 12 – 2 85.71 14.29 40.82 0.63

 

Obviously Toronto stands better, but it’s important to note that if a team is 2-5 with a SOS rating of 0.43, they’ve likely been up against some tough competition. This could indicate that they’ve been sharpening their claws vs superior competition and it means that if Toronto is overlooking them, St. Louis could easily take this down. This psychology is especially powerful when the better team is playing at home. They are not being antagonized by the fans so they won’t be motivated to shut them up. Toronto also risks thinking that they’ve already won even before the opening pitch, and to top it off, there is no cheering for the visitors when they score to wake up the Toronto home team.

In our opinion, this psychology is the one and only point that actually threatens the Toronto pick.

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB
Game Date – 2014-06-07
Road Team :- (3433) ST LOUIS
Home Team :- (3434 )TORONTO

 

ST LOUISTeam Name: ST LOUIS(Road Team)
Money Line: ST LOUIS +143 vs TORONTO -155
Spread Line: ST LOUIS +1.5 -140 —– TORONTO -1.5 +120
O/U: ST LOUIS 9.5 +105 —– TORONTO 9.5 -125
Pitchers: ST LOUIS – S Miller (R) vs TORONTO – M Buehrle (L)
Game Date: Saturday,June 07 2014 12:05 PM
Last Game: lost 1 – 3 vs Toronto Blue Jays
Current Game: Toronto Blue Jays
Next Game: At TORONTO
Stats & Trends: ST LOUIS vs. TORONTO
PVI Rating on Winning: 50%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 52.63%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 57.14%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 2 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 47%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 58%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.54
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.67
Road Team
(ST LOUIS)
When ST LOUIS is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When ST LOUIS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 9.5 0-1 12-13 24 0-1-0 14-11-0 72
vs Non-Division opponent 6-8 261-323 43.78 2-10-2 242-301-41 69.38
vs Non-Conference opponent 1-2 87-126 37.09 0-2-1 91-114-8 77.81
Playing in the month of June 1-2 43-43 41.67 0-2-1 39-38-9 74.68
Playing on Saturday 3-2 59-85 50.49 1-2-2 69-64-11 57.4
Played as road Team 15-17 441-550 45.69 10-19-3 434-485-72 59.15
After a Non-Division Game 4-10 263-314 37.08 3-9-2 236-300-41 65.49
After a Non-Conference Game 1-2 85-122 37.2 0-2-1 87-108-12 77.69
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 9-9 85-106 47.25 8-9-1 88-88-15 51.47
vs NL Conference Opponent 14-15 240-291 46.74 10-17-2 232-251-48 57.47
Coming off vs AL EAST Division Opponent (since 1996) 16-14 67-90 48.01 12-17-1 62-86-9 58.37
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 1-2 211-260 39.07 0-2-1 205-237-29 76.81
Coming off a 2 losing streak 3-0 58-56 75.44 2-1-0 55-56-3 41.89
Coming off 2 under 3-1 59-65 61.29 2-2-0 49-67-8 53.88
Coming off a lost 11-5 257-315 56.84 6-7-3 228-298-46 55.25
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 3-1 156-202 59.29 2-1-1 147-180-31 44.19
During a day game 3-6 146-184 38.79 2-6-1 138-167-25 64.88
Coming off a 3 road trip (since 1996) 5-6 5-4 50.51 7-4-0 3-5-1 49.43
Coming off a 2 runs loss 3-1 46-30 67.77 1-2-1 31-42-3 62.1
Coming off a score 1 runs FOR in last game 3-1 46-56 60.05 2-1-1 43-52-7 44.04
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 3-6 54-63 39.74 2-6-1 51-57-9 63.89
vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % 0-2 35-52 20.12 1-1-0 33-50-4 55.12
vs TORONTO (since 1996) 3-4 13-19 41.75 1-6-0 17-13-2 64.52
Coming off a Lost over AL EAST division opponent (since 1996) 6-7 38-50 44.67 6-6-1 29-56-3 57.94
Coming off a night game 11-11 279-357 46.94 6-13-3 270-314-52 61.1
Coming off a game 1 of a series 4-6 134-150 43.59 1-8-1 130-134-20 69.83
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 3-2 74-86 53.13 1-3-1 73-74-13 62.67
Last 30 days 4-5 195-237 44.79 4-4-1 188-208-36 51.27
Last 45 days 7-10 293-363 42.92 7-9-1 285-314-57 54.34
Last 60 days 12-14 388-496 45.02 8-16-2 387-430-67 59.65
Last 90 days 15-17 441-550 45.69 10-19-3 434-485-72 59.15
Vs. Left handed pitchers 4-5 136-138 47.04 4-3-2 122-129-23 47.13
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 9-16 322-390 40.61 8-15-2 300-359-53 59.85
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 8-2 188-224 62.82 5-3-2 162-220-30 47.55
TEAM: ST LOUIS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.7 3.6
Home Games Avg 4.13 4.23
Road Games Avg 3.28 3
Last 3 Games Avg 2.67 2.67
Last 5 Games Avg 3 4.4
Last 10 Games Avg 3 5.2
vs. Division Games Avg 3.94 3.88
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.71 3.49
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.63 4.38
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.6 3.6
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.66 3.79
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.84 3.32
After a Win Games Avg 3 4.19
After a Lost Games Avg 4.47 3.13
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.6 4.47
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.94 2.63
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.38 3.94
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 5.07 3.71
After an Over Games Avg 4.3 4.11
After an Under Games Avg 3.57 3.57
After a Push Games Avg 1.8 1.8
3.54 3.67
TORONTOTeam Name: TORONTO(Home Team)
Money Line: TORONTO -155 vs ST LOUIS +143
Spread Line: TORONTO -1.5 +120 —– ST LOUIS +1.5 -140
O/U: TORONTO 9.5 -125 —– ST LOUIS 9.5 +105
Pitchers: TORONTO – M Buehrle (L) vs ST LOUIS – S Miller (R)
Game Date: Saturday,June 07 2014 12:05 PM
Last Game: win 1 – 3 vs St Louis Cardinals
Current Game: St Louis Cardinals
Next Game: Vs. ST LOUIS
Stats & Trends: TORONTO vs. ST LOUIS
PVI Rating on Winning: 61.29%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 43.33%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 34.69%
Streaks: 6 SU Win – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 53%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 53%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 5.14
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.13
Home Team
(TORONTO)
When TORONTO is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When TORONTO is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 9.5 4-2 11-14 55.34 1-5-0 14-11-0 63.67
vs Non-Division opponent 13-7 272-312 55.79 9-10-1 242-301-41 54.03
vs Non-Conference opponent 5-1 98-115 64.67 4-2-0 91-114-8 44.47
Playing in the month of June 2-0 36-50 70.93 0-2-0 39-38-9 74.68
Playing on Saturday 3-2 78-66 57.09 2-3-0 69-64-11 54.06
Played as home Team 19-13 462-529 53 17-13-2 434-485-72 48.05
After a Non-Division Game 13-6 257-307 57 10-8-1 235-290-39 49.84
After a Non-Conference Game 3-2 90-122 51.23 4-1-0 89-113-10 37.97
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 3-1 103-103 62.5 2-2-0 81-110-15 53.8
vs NL Conference Opponent 5-1 252-272 65.71 4-2-0 215-259-50 43.99
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 1-1 99-99 50 2-0-0 72-108-18 30
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 3-2 253-277 53.87 4-1-0 216-264-50 37.5
Coming off a 6 winning streak 1-0 2-2 75 1-0-0 1-3-0 37.5
Coming off 1 under 3-3 106-143 46.29 4-2-0 100-134-15 45.3
Coming off a win 12-6 199-236 56.21 10-7-1 189-210-36 46.91
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 6-5 130-140 51.35 7-3-1 121-124-25 40.31
During a day game 6-4 162-168 54.55 4-6-0 138-167-25 57.38
Coming off a 2 runs win 1-0 35-44 72.15 1-0-0 35-39-5 26.35
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game 4-3 50-74 48.73 4-3-0 53-58-13 47.56
Coming off a score 1 runs AGAINST in last game 1-0 43-52 72.63 1-0-0 43-41-11 24.41
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 13-9 182-208 52.88 11-9-2 173-188-29 48.54
vs ST LOUIS (since 1996) 4-3 17-15 55.14 1-6-0 10-19-3 75.62
Coming off a Win over NL CENTRAL division opponent 1-1 41-48 48.04 2-0-0 31-47-11 30.13
Coming off a game that went under 8-3 109-117 60.48 6-5-0 109-101-16 46.78
Coming off a night game 10-11 304-357 46.81 12-7-2 290-322-49 44.73
Coming off a game 1 of a series 5-5 132-152 48.24 6-4-0 130-134-20 45.38
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 4-2 68-75 57.11 5-1-0 68-64-11 32.58
Last 30 days 13-6 206-226 58.06 8-10-1 188-208-36 54.05
Last 45 days 15-10 307-349 53.4 12-11-2 285-314-57 50.13
Last 60 days 18-11 415-469 54.51 15-12-2 387-430-67 48.54
Last 90 days 19-13 462-529 53 17-13-2 434-485-72 48.05
Vs. Right handed pitchers 12-9 336-392 51.65 12-7-2 331-348-49 44.05
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 14-8 324-384 54.7 11-10-1 297-361-50 51.24
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 4-6 144-165 43.3 5-5-0 134-148-27 51.24
TEAM: TORONTO
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.98 4.14
Home Games Avg 5.38 4.59
Road Games Avg 4.58 3.68
Last 3 Games Avg 6 2
Last 5 Games Avg 5.4 1.8
Last 10 Games Avg 5.8 3.3
vs. Division Games Avg 5.14 4.5
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.76 4.24
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 6.5 3.5
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.86 3.71
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 5.4 4.36
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.9 4.06
After a Win Games Avg 5.11 3.84
After a Lost Games Avg 4.92 4.21
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.63 2.68
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 5.36 4.09
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 5.61 5.06
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.54 4.31
After an Over Games Avg 4.91 3.68
After an Under Games Avg 5.19 4.04
After a Push Games Avg 5 11
5.14 4.13

 

At the end of the day, we are far from sitting back and watching the bucks roll in.

At the end of the day, we are on the edge of our seats, hoping intensely, that Toronto doesn’t sit back thinking they can’t lose.

At the end of the day, this is a huge wager, and just like with any contest, the outcome is a fickle thing.

 

That said…

 

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: TORONTO to win 7-4.

 

 

 

 

 

Be the first to comment on "St. Louis Cardinals (Miller) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Buehrle) – Preview for June 7th, 2014"

Leave a comment