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Milwaukee Brewers (Lohse) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Miley) – Preview June 17th, 2014

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Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 
SIDE :-114

5.38

Vs.

Date: 2014-06-17
Time: 20:40:00

Generated from 36 Previous Games

Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U :8.5

4.68 = 10.06

 

This is guaranteed to be a barn burning slobberknocker!

With each of these guys having 6 hitters in their lineups averaging over .300, it means that these teams know how to hit against these pitchers.

That said, while Milwaukee has a question mark beside Weeks and Maldanado; Braun, Gomez, Lucroy and Segura are predicted to be in the lineup tonight averaging a combined 349.75AVG between the 4 of them, across 32 at bats.

Likewise, Arizona will have a few of their big hitters on the bench as well. There is a question mark beside Campana, Gregorius, Pacheco and Ross; but dressed will likely be Prado, Parra with a combined .371AVG across 27 at bats.

So while these teams both have sluggers against each others’ pitchers, Milwaukee are dressing at least 4, while Arizona is only dressing at least 2.

 

EDGES

Pitching is effectively even across the splits, but Lohse is a little better across all games pitching a 3.00ERA vs Miley’s 4.71ERA. Let’s call it a tiny edge with the Brewers.

 

Hitting has an edge with the Brewers, who hit 4.7RPG vs LHP and 4.6RPG L7G.
Arizona is hitting is 4.0RPG and 3.6RPG L7G.

 

Bullpens are basically even with Milwaukee marking 3.50ERA vs Arizona’s 3.77ERA.

 

Umpire considerations favour Arizona tonight. T Barrett had the home team win in 67.6% of his games in 2013 and is 61.5% so far this season. This is a tough consideration to ignore and might justify stepping down from a full unit bet on Milwaukee to a half unit bet.

 

ATS Matchups have these teams as perfectly even.

 

ATS Forecast has Milwaukee ahead by 0.70 points.

 

ATS Strength of Schedule gives Milwuakee a 6 point edge over Arizona. This is a point that needs looking at though…considering that Milwaukee has a 6 point SOS edge, and has batted an average of 4.6RPG L7G, it strongly suggests that they’re hitting harder vs stronger competition. So when these teams meet, Milwaukee should be likely to burn the barn.

 

ATS Raymond Report also has Milwaukee way ahead. While Milwaukee is showing a 51% chance of winning, Arizona is only marking 42%. Milwaukee is above the league average in most categories in tonight’s position, and Arizona is obviously well below.

 

Road Team
(MILWAUKEE)
When MILWAUKEE is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When MILWAUKEE is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8.5 5-2 77-89 58.91 4-3-0 73-93-0 49.44
vs Non-Division opponent 13-7 303-379 54.72 11-7-2 283-354-45 47.23
vs Conference opponent 9-6 208-243 53.06 8-5-2 185-229-37 46.89
Playing in the month of June 6-3 109-122 56.93 6-3-0 102-114-15 43.06
Playing on Tuesday 2-2 80-93 48.12 3-1-0 68-95-10 41.64
Played as road Favorite 8-7 175-161 52.71 8-6-1 148-167-21 47.94
After a Non-Division Game 12-6 306-373 55.87 9-7-2 280-354-45 49.8
After a Conference Game 10-5 218-253 56.48 8-5-2 194-241-36 46.93
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 9-8 95-124 48.16 11-6-0 99-104-16 43.26
vs NL Conference Opponent 18-14 273-333 50.65 19-11-2 269-285-52 44.06
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent (since 1996) 118-162 79-94 43.9 126-143-11 86-74-13 49.71
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 19-12 256-327 52.6 18-11-2 260-277-46 44.76
Coming off 2 over 3-2 51-68 51.43 4-1-0 61-51-7 32.77
Coming off a win 10-9 218-268 48.75 12-7-0 238-217-31 42.27
Coming off a Road Win as a Underdog 5-6 114-146 44.65 6-5-0 123-118-19 47.21
During a night game 14-9 334-416 52.7 18-4-1 334-364-52 35.17
Coming off a 6 runs win 2-0 10-15 70 1-1-0 17-8-0 41
Coming off a score 9 runs FOR in last game 2-1 16-18 56.87 1-2-0 16-16-2 58.34
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 4-2 64-71 57.04 3-3-0 57-69-9 52.38
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 13-9 197-275 50.42 15-7-0 199-245-28 43.5
vs ARIZONA (since 1996) 31-29 25-12 59.62 27-31-2 16-17-4 52.49
Coming off a Win over NL WEST division opponent (since 1996) 51-73 38-52 41.68 54-63-7 45-35-10 48.8
Coming off a night game 13-8 316-408 52.78 12-8-1 312-357-55 46.68
Coming off a game 1 of a series 8-3 153-175 59.69 6-5-0 152-156-20 48.05
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 2-2 68-77 48.45 2-2-0 69-69-7 50
Last 30 days 9-8 195-237 49.04 9-6-2 194-210-28 45.99
Last 45 days 10-11 297-362 46.35 11-8-2 283-327-49 47.86
Last 60 days 16-13 393-489 49.87 17-10-2 380-432-70 45.12
Last 90 days 22-15 507-629 52.05 22-13-2 497-561-78 45.08
Vs. Left handed pitchers 6-2 155-158 62.26 3-4-1 136-152-25 54.96
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 20-14 369-450 51.94 20-12-2 349-413-57 45.85
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 8-7 152-196 48.51 10-5-0 159-166-23 42.21

 

 

Home Team
(ARIZONA)
When ARIZONA is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When ARIZONA is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8.5 4-7 78-88 41.68 7-4-0 73-93-0 46.19
vs Non-Division opponent 6-13 321-361 39.33 6-11-2 283-354-45 60.14
vs Conference opponent 6-13 216-235 39.74 6-11-2 185-229-37 60.01
Playing in the month of June 3-4 107-124 44.59 2-5-0 102-114-15 62.11
Playing on Tuesday 3-3 69-104 44.94 1-3-2 68-95-10 66.64
Played as home Underdog 4-11 139-221 32.64 7-7-1 148-189-23 53.04
After a Non-Division Game 6-12 310-358 39.87 6-10-2 283-342-43 58.61
After a Conference Game 6-12 230-238 41.24 5-11-2 190-242-36 62.39
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 2-5 113-122 38.33 2-5-0 94-125-16 64.26
vs NL Conference Opponent 12-25 292-311 40.43 16-17-4 251-298-54 52.9
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 2-3 114-113 45.11 1-3-1 86-122-19 66.83
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 12-22 295-313 41.91 14-16-4 252-302-54 53.92
Coming off 5 over (since 1996) 9-12 4-6 41.43 14-6-1 7-3-0 30
Coming off a lost 7-15 308-325 40.24 10-9-3 280-314-39 50.12
Coming off a Home Lost as a Favorite 2-8 153-163 34.21 3-5-2 144-155-17 57.17
During a night game 9-18 345-405 39.67 13-10-4 334-364-52 47.82
Coming off a 6 runs loss 0-1 15-11 28.85 1-0-0 12-11-3 23.92
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game 3-2 59-81 51.07 2-2-1 56-69-15 52.6
Coming off a score 9 runs AGAINST in last game 1-1 16-19 47.86 1-1-0 14-18-3 53.13
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 6-8 166-175 45.77 5-7-2 149-167-25 55.59
vs MILWAUKEE (since 1996) 29-31 14-23 43.09 27-31-2 22-13-2 45.3
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 1-2 72-54 45.24 0-3-0 49-70-7 79.41
Coming off a night game 10-16 354-398 42.77 9-14-3 333-367-52 56.65
Coming off a game 1 of a series 5-6 156-173 46.44 5-4-2 152-157-20 47.63
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 5-3 79-87 55.05 3-3-2 75-82-9 51.12
Last 30 days 7-7 211-221 49.42 5-9-0 194-210-28 58.14
Last 45 days 9-10 315-344 47.59 7-12-0 283-327-49 58.39
Last 60 days 11-14 417-465 45.64 9-13-3 380-432-70 56.15
Last 90 days 12-25 533-603 39.68 16-17-4 497-561-78 52.27
Vs. Right handed pitchers 10-18 393-446 41.28 11-13-4 377-409-53 53.11
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 8-16 376-444 39.59 7-14-3 341-426-53 61.11
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 5-9 213-244 41.16 5-7-2 192-237-28 56.79

 

At the end of the day, finding Milwaukee at -110 is an absolute steal and this game promises to deliver some Grade-A baseball entertainment.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: MILWAUKEE to win 9-6.

 

 

 

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