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Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) vs. San Diego Padres (Cashner) – Preview June 18th, 2014

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Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners 
SIDE :-1274.65
Vs.Date: 2014-06-18
Time: 21:10:00Generated from 40 Previous Games
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
O/U :6
2.55 = 7.2

 

 

 

Tonight’s matchup features more lob-sided value and we think we know why.
Before we get to the pricing, let’s look at the facts:

Aside from all of the obvious factors that show Seattle to be completely better, it’s really the “hitter vs pitcher” theme that seems to prove outstanding.

Here is the point:

PITCHING

Historical, threats to Hernandez have been:

  • Yonder Alonso who has hit .333 vs Hernandez across 9 at bats.
  • Everth Cabrera who has hit .400 vs Hernandez across 10 at bats.
  • Chris Denorfia who has hit .500 vs Hernandez across 6 at bats.
  • Cameron Maybin who has hit .333 vs Hernandez across 9 at bats.
  • Seth Smith who has hit .316 vs Hernandez across 19 at bats.

There is a high probability that all of these hitters will be dressing tonight, so let’s take a second to look at their last 7 games:

  • Yonder Alonso is hitting a .238 AVG L7G
  • Everth Cabrera is hitting a .160 AVG L7G
  • Chris Denorfia is hitting a .083 AVG L7G
  • Cameron Maybin is hitting a .125 AVG L7G
  • Seth Smith is hitting a .133 AVG L7G

It can be said that the biggest historical threats vs Hernandez are averaging a combined and measly .147AVG last 7 games.

 

Historically, threats to Cashner have been:

  • John Buck who has hit 1.000 vs Cashner across 1 at bat.
  • Robinson Cano who has hit .333 vs Cashner across 3 at bats.
  • Logan Morrison who has hit .500 vs Cashner across 4 at bats.
  • Kyle Seager who has hit .667 vs Cashner across 3 at bats.

There is a high probability that all of these hitters will be dressing tonight, so let’s take a second to look at their last 7 games:

  • John Buck is hitting a .429 AVG L7G
  • Robinson Cano is hitting a .261 AVG L7G.
  • Logan Morrison is hitting a .143 AVG L7G.
  • Kyle Seager is hitting a .375 AVG L7G.

It can be said that the biggest historical threats vs Cashner are averaging a combined and mighty .302AVG last 7 games.

Did you know:

  • Hernandez is 6-3 vs San Diego with an ERA of 3.05 and a WHIP of 1.135.
  • Cashner is 0-1 vs Seattle with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.167.

 

 

HITTING

  • Seattle is hitting 4.2RPG vs RHP.
  • Seattle is hitting 2.9RPG L7G.
  • San Diego is hitting 3.0RPG vs RHP.
  • San Diego is hitting 2.0RPG L7G.

 

 

BULLPENS

  • Seattle is pitching a 2.70ERA out of their pen across all games.
  • San Diego is pitching a 2.57ERA out of their pen across all games.

 

Did you know:

  • Seattle is 7-1 with a total of 7 or less.
  • Seattle is 7-2 when playing with a day off.
  • Seattle is 6-2 on the road with an ML of -100 to -125
  • San Diego is 17-29 with a total of 7 or less.
  • San Diego is 4-8 when playing with a day off.
  • San Diego is 3-11 in June games.
  • San Diego is 3-8 when playing on Wednesday.
  • San Diego is 21-36 vs RHP.

 

 

ATS Matchups

Historical considerations that SUPPORT the Seattle pick:

When SEATTLE team played as a Road team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – After a non division game – Scored 6 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent 16-10-0
When SEATTLE team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a night game – Allowed 1 runs or more AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent 8-4-0
When SEATTLE team played as a -120 to -140 Road Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – After a non division game – Scored 6 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 11-6-0
When SEATTLE team played as a Road team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – After a non division game – Allowed 1 runs or more AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent 25-16-0
When SEATTLE team played as a -120 to -140 road Favorite – During the month of June – During a night game 23-12-0
When ANY MLB (Mariners) Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Playing on Wednesday – Scored 6 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a 5 run win 13-6-0
When ANY MLB (Mariners) Team played as a -120 to -140 Road Favorite – After a non conference game – During the month of June – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Coming off a Home win 13-8-0
When SEATTLE Played as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years or Less – Won Last Game by 5 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 3 Win 0 Lost in L3G 14 – 3 – 0

 

 

When SAN DIEGO team played as a Home team – After a non conference game – During a night game – Coming off a Loss vs. AL WEST opponent – Coming off a Road loss 3-7-0
When SAN DIEGO team played as a Home team – After a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Loss vs. AL WEST opponent – Coming off a Road loss 3-7-0
When SAN DIEGO team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – After a non conference game – Vs. Right handed pitchers 9-17-0
When SAN DIEGO team Played as home team as a Underdog – During a night game – Before a non conference game 9-17-0
When SAN DIEGO team Played as home team as a Underdog – After a non conference game – During a night game 16-34-0
When ANY MLB Team (Padres) played as a Home team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a night game – 1st game of a series – Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series – Coming off a 5 run lost – Allowed 6 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 7-18-0
When SAN DIEGO played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years or More – Lost Last Game by 5 Runs – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 3 – 9 – 0

 

Historical considerations that THREATEN the Seattle pick:

*NONE*

 

 

ATS Raymond Report

Both teams are performing evenly in comparison to the rest of the league.

 

 

ATS Strength of Schedule

There is a 16 point discrepancy between the Padres and the Mariners in favour of the Mariners. This is not a “small fry” consideration and rightfully it should raise our eyebrow.

 

 

ATS Forecast

Finding >1 point discrepancies between teams is rare.
Finding >2 point discrepancies is almost impossible.

Considering that these Forecast stats are backed by a 40 games sample, it’s bona fide and is one of the most convincing hints that we’ve seen from the ATS Database…ever.

 

 

VALUE

Considering that Seattle is power-rated at -154 and stands obviously better…should we worry about finding them at -126? Can we explain this discrepancy or should we worry about sharp steam on the San Diego dog minority?

People like to bet on hot bats. Seattle has been hitting a pithy 2.9RPG last 7 games and appears to be stymied at the plate with coolish bats with the hitting in a lull. This could help explain some of the decreased action on Seattle.

That said, the Padres are even worse than the Mariners hitting a terrible 2.0RPG last 7 games. Considering the Padres are 2-8, we could attribute the amount of action on the Padres to negative progression bettors considering the “San Diego is due to win” factor.

So even though both teams are having ice cold bats lately, thanks to the SOS consideration where we find the Mariners with a 16 point advantage over the Padres L7G, we can deduce that the Mariners have been up against better teams and likely better pitchers.

Another important note is that we find no significant steam with San Diego to warn us of sharp money.

 

The final 2 factors are in regards to the population and ‘bias-betting’:

We could help explain the absurd value on Seattle by the fact that it’s a home game for the Padres and therefore they’ll see a little more biased betting from the whales attending the game in their box seats.

Lastly, the San Diego Padres reside in California, population 38.3 million.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners reside in Washington, population 6.9 million.

Do you think there might be a few more bets on San Diego based on nothing more than the vast population difference between these two states and biased bettors?

 

BOTTOM LINE

Since there is an explanation this value that is basically synonymous with ‘bank robbery’, we should feel some confidence (as much as we can have when betting sports) to go ahead with the Seattle pick.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: SEATTLE to win 7-3.

 

 

 

 

 

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