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Montreal Alouettes vs. Calgary Stampeders – Preview June 28th, 2014

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Montreal Alouettes
Montreal Alouettes 
O/U :5322.8
Vs.Date: 2014-06-28
Time: 14:05:00

Generated from 19 Previous Games

Calgary Stampeders
Calgary Stampeders
SIDE :7
31.36 = 54.16

Pick: Montreal +7.5

Being the first game of the season, there is no a lot to go on besides the pre-season stats and experience. The pre-season is tough to gauge due to the experimental element of pre-season play. Experience is tough to rely on due to so much changing year to year.

That said, there are a few indicators that might help us find out where our best purchase lies in today’s contest:

 

SPLITS

Is there a particular home field advantage to the season opener? No.

  • When All teams played as a home team Last 3 years During Week 1: 6-7 ATS, 7-6 SU

When Calgary opens at home, is there a particular advantage? Yes.

  • When CALGARY team played as a home team During Week 1: 10-6 ATS, 10-6 SU

When Montreal opens at away, is there a particular disadvantage? No. Quite the opposite.

  • When MONTREAL team played as a road team During Week 1: 6-4 ATS, 8-2 SU

(Remember that MTL are priced at +7.5 With the Spread so the 8-2 SU stat applies.)

 

When MONTREAL team played as a road team Vs Calgary opponent: 8-10 ATS, 8-10 SU

Looking at Week 1 splits, even at PK odds, MTL gets the nod. Considering they’re priced +7.5, they are a keeper.

 

PRE-SEASON

Montreal scored 33 points in the 2014 pre-season.
Montreal allowed 54 points in the 2014 pre-season.

Calgary scored 36 points in the 2014 pre-season.
Calgary allowed 57 points in the 2014 pre-season.

That’s a +/- of a perfectly even GF/GA between these teams.

(It’s only fair to note that Calgary had to face somewhat stronger competition in the pre-season.)

 

EXPLANATION OF LINE VALUE

Montreal’s performance last year is probably all the explanation that we need to explain why they’re priced at +7.5.

However, when we look at a team like the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in their opener, they walked through the #1 Eastern Division champions from last year.

This would have been an unimaginable upset last season and Winnipeg would have been priced at about +15 underdogs vs Toronto.

Yet, they manhandled Toronto in game 1.

So although Montreal had a terrible reputation last year, there is nothing to say that it continues this year, much less, in game 1.

Likewise, Calgary was arguably the best last year, no question, but if they’re so high and mighty, then how do we explain their bottom completely lackluster GF/GA in the pre-season?

Based on their pre-season, Calgary appears to be having a few hiccups.

 

We don’t see why there is any reason that Montreal couldn’t catch Calgary napping early in the game and possibly even hang on for the win. We think the +7.5 might be a little generous so that’s what we’ll be banking on this afternoon.

 

This Afternoon’s Prediction: MONTREAL ALOUETTS to cover but not win, in a 29-26 final.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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